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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear deformation and elasticity of BCC refractory metals and alloys

Application of isotropic pressure or uniaxial strain alters the elastic properties of materials; sufficiently large strains can drive structural transformations. Linear elasticity describes stability against infinitesimal strains, while nonlinear elasticity describes the response to finite deformations. Here, it was previously shown that uniaxial strain along [100] drives refractory metals and alloys towards mechanical instabilities. These include an extensional instability, and a symmetry-breaking orthorhombic distortion caused by a Jahn-Teller-Peierls instability that splays the cubic lattice vectors. Here we analyze these transitions in depth. Eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Wallace tensor identify and classify linear instabilities in the presence of strain. We show that both instabilities are discontinuous, leading to discrete jumps in the lattice parameters. We provide physical intuition for the instabilities by analyzing the changes in first-principles energy, stress, bond lengths, and angles upon application of strain. Electronic band structure calculations show differential occupation of bonding and antibonding orbitals, driven by the changing bond lengths and leading to the structural transformations. Strain thresholds for these instabilities depend on the valence electron count.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a New Chelation Model: Bioassay Data Interpretation and Dose Assessment after Plutonium Intake via Wound and Treatment with DTPA

The administration of chelation therapy to treat significant intakes of actinides, such as plutonium, affects the actinide’s normal biokinetics. In particular, it enhances the actinide’s rate of excretion, such that the standard biokinetic models cannot be applied directly to the chelation-affected bioassay data in order to estimate the intake and assess the radiation dose. Here we propose a new chelation model that can be applied to the chelation-affected bioassay data after plutonium intake via wound and treatment with DTPA. In the proposed model, chelation is assumed to occur in the blood, liver, and parts of the skeleton. Ten datasets, consisting of measurements of 14 C-DTPA, 238 Pu, and 239 Pu involving humans given radiolabeled DTPA and humans occupationally exposed to plutonium via wound and treated with chelation therapy, were used for model development. The combined dataset consisted of daily and cumulative excretion (urine and feces), wound counts, measurements of excised tissue, blood, and post-mortem tissue analyses of liver and skeleton. The combined data were simultaneously fit using the chelation model linked with a plutonium systemic model, which was linked to an ad hoc wound model. The proposed chelation model was used for dose assessment of the wound cases used in this study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of portable air samplers for monitoring airborne culturable bacteria

Airborne culturable bacteria were monitored at five locations (three in an office/laboratory building and two in a private residence) in a series of experiments designed to compare the efficiency of four air samplers: the Andersen two-stage, Burkard portable, RCS Plus, and SAS Super 90 samplers. A total of 280 samples was collected. The four samplers were operated simultaneously, each sampling 100 L of air with collection on trypticase soy agar. The data were corrected by applying positive hole conversion factors for the Burkard portable, Andersen two-stage, and SAS Super 90 air samplers, and were expressed as log10 values prior to statistical analysis by analysis of variance. The Burkard portable air sampler retrieved the highest number of airborne culturable bacteria at four of the five sampling sites, followed by the SAS Super 90 and the Andersen two-stage impactor. The number of bacteria retrieved by the RCS Plus was significantly less than those retrieved by the other samplers. Among the predominant bacterial genera retrieved by all samplers were Staphylococcus, Bacillus, Corynebacterium, Micrococcus, and Streptococcus.

NASA Center JSC↗

DOE OSTI2023

2D k -th nearest neighbour statistics: a highly informative probe of galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT Beyond standard summary statistics are necessary to summarize the rich information on non-linear scales in the era of precision galaxy clustering measurements. For the first time, we introduce the 2D k-th nearest neighbour (kNN) statistics as a summary statistic for discrete galaxy fields. This is a direct generalization of the standard 1D kNN by disentangling the projected galaxy distribution from the redshift-space distortion signature along the line-of-sight. We further introduce two different flavours of 2D kNNs that trace different aspects of the galaxy field: the standard flavour which tabulates the distances between galaxies and random query points, and a ‘DD’ flavour that tabulates the distances between galaxies and galaxies. We showcase the 2D kNNs’ strong constraining power both through theoretical arguments and by testing on realistic galaxy mocks. Theoretically, we show that 2D kNNs are computationally efficient and directly generate other statistics such as the popular two-point correlation function (2PCF), voids probability function, and counts-in-cell statistics. In a more practical test, we apply the 2D kNN statistics to simulated galaxy mocks that fold in a large range of observational realism and recover parameters of the underlying extended halo occupation distribution (HOD) model that includes velocity bias and galaxy assembly bias. We find unbiased and significantly tighter constraints on all aspects of the HOD model with the 2D kNNs, both compared to the standard 1D kNN, and the classical redshift-space 2PCF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of galaxy assembly bias in SDSS DR7 galaxy samples from count statistics

We present observational constraints on the galaxy–halo connection, focusing particularly on galaxy assembly bias from a novel combination of counts-in-cylinders statistics, P(N CIC ), with the standard measurements of the projected two-point correlation function w p (r p ), and number density n gal of galaxies. We measure n gal , w p (r p ), and P(N CIC ) for volume-limited, luminosity-threshold samples of galaxies selected from SDSS DR7, and use them to constrain halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, including a model in which galaxy occupation depends upon a secondary halo property, namely halo concentration. We detect significant positive central assembly bias for the M r < -20.0 and M r <-19.5 samples. Central galaxies preferentially reside within haloes of high concentration at fixed mass. Positive central assembly bias is also favoured in the M r < -20.5 and M r < -19.0 samples. We find no evidence of central assembly bias in the M r < -21.0 sample. We observe only a marginal preference for negative satellite assembly bias in the M r < -20.0 and M r < -19.0 samples, and non-zero satellite assembly bias is not indicated in other samples. Our findings underscore the necessity of accounting for galaxy assembly bias when interpreting galaxy survey data, and demonstrate the potential of count statistics in extracting information from the spatial distribution of galaxies, which could be applied to both galaxy–halo connection studies and cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

2024 Results for Avian Monitoring at the Technical Area 36 Minie Site, Technical Area 39 Point 6, Technical Area 16 Burn Ground, and DARHT at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) biological subject matter experts in the Environmental Protection and Compliance Division initiated a multi-year program in 2013 to monitor avifauna (birds) at two open detonation sites and one open burn site on LANL property. Additional monitoring began in 2017 at a third firing site, the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility. In this annual report, we compare monitoring results from these efforts among years to identify and evaluate firing and open burn site impacts on the local bird community. The objectives of this study are • to determine whether LANL operations impact bird abundance, species richness, or diversity; • to examine occupancy and nest success of secondary-cavity nesting birds that use nest boxes; and • to examine chemical concentrations (such as radionuclides, inorganic elements, and/or organic compounds) in nonviable eggs and deceased nestlings that are collected opportunistically with the upper-level bounds of background concentrations, when available. During May through July 2024, LANL biologists completed multiple avian point count surveys at each of the following treatment sites: • Technical Area (TA) 36 Minie Site, • TA-39 Point 6, • TA-16 Burn Ground, and • DARHT. We recorded a total of 1,088 birds that represented 65 species at the four treatment sites and compared these results with data from their associated control sites. In 2024, abundance and species richness at treatment and control sites continued to trend similarly from year to year, with minor random deviations expected from bird communities. Species richness at firing sites differed little from the previous year’s values. Two new bird species were observed at the firing sites—cedar waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum) and pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus). Shannon diversity values at TA-36 Minie Site, TA-39, and DARHT were statistically higher than one or more of their associated controls. Annual species diversity at treatment sites was high in 2024 across all firing sites relative to similar habitat control sites. We also monitored avian nest boxes to compare occupancy and nest success data from nest boxes at treatment sites with the overall avian nest box monitoring network and against a subset of relevant control sites. Nest box success has decreased at both treatment and control sites since monitoring began, suggesting that overlapping climatic factors are responsible for patterns of declining nest success. In 2024, nonviable avian eggs and one nestling were opportunistically collected at Bandelier National Monument, TA-16 Burn Ground, TA-36 Minie, TA-39 Point 6, and DARHT. All egg samples and the one nestling sample were evaluated for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, which were detected from all locations, including the control site at Bandelier National Monument. Overall results from 2024 continue to suggest that operations at the four treatment sites are not negatively impacting bird populations. This long-term project will continue to monitor for any changes over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Respiratory Toxicity of Authentic Lunar Dust

The lunar expeditions of the Apollo operations from the 60 s and early 70 s have generated awareness about lunar dust exposures and their implication towards future lunar explorations. Critical analyses on the reports from the Apollo crew members suggest that lunar dust is a mild respiratory and ocular irritant. Currently, NASA s space toxicology group is functioning with the Lunar Airborne Dust Toxicity Assessment Group (LADTAG) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) to investigate and examine toxic effects to the respiratory system of rats in order to establish permissible exposure levels (PELs) for human exposure to lunar dust. In collaboration with the space toxicology group, LADTAG and NIOSH the goal of the present research is to analyze dose-response curves from rat exposures seven and twenty-eight days after intrapharyngeal instillations, and model the response using BenchMark Dose Software (BMDS) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Via this analysis, the relative toxicities of three types of Apollo 14 lunar dust samples and two control dust samples, titanium dioxide (TiO2) and quartz will be determined. This will be executed for several toxicity endpoints such as cell counts and biochemical markers in bronchoaveolar lavage fluid (BALF) harvested from the rats.

Santana, Patricia A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scattering Processes from Quantum Simulation Algorithms for Scalar Field Theories

We provide practical simulation methods for scalar field theories on a quantum computer that yield improved asymptotics as well as concrete gate estimates for the simulation and physical qubit estimates using the surface code. We achieve these improvements through two optimizations. First, we consider a finite volume approach for estimating the elements of the S-matrix. This approach is appropriate in general for 1+1D and for certain low-energy elastic collisions in higher dimensions. Second, we implement our approach using a series of different fault-tolerant simulation algorithms for Hamiltonians formulated both in the field occupation basis and field amplitude basis. Our algorithms are based on either second-order Trotterization or qubitization. The cost of Trotterization in occupation basis scales as O ( λ N 7 | Ω | 3 / ( M 5 / 2 ϵ 3 / 2 ) ) where λ is the coupling strength, N is the occupation cutoff, | Ω | is the volume of the spatial lattice, M is the mass of the particles and ϵ is the uncertainty in the energy calculation used for the S -matrix determination. Qubitization in the field basis scales as O ( | Ω | 2 ( k 2 Λ + k M 2 ) / ϵ ) , where k is the cutoff in the field and Λ is a scaled coupling constant. We find in both cases that the bounds suggest physically meaningful simulations can be performed using on the order of 4 × 10 6 physical qubits and 10 12 T -gates which corresponds to roughly one day on a superconducting quantum computer with surface code and a cycle time of 100 ns. This places the simulation of scalar field theory within striking distance of the gate counts for the best available chemistry simulation results.

Hardy, Andrew [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0000000235817382↗

NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Analysis of the Multisphere Neutron Spectrometer

Crews working on present-day jet aircraft are a large occupationally exposed group with a relatively high average effective dose from galactic cosmic radiation. Crews of future high-speed commercial aircraft flying at higher altitudes would be even more exposed. To help reduce the significant uncertainties in calculations of such exposures, the Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) Project, an international collaboration of 15 laboratories, made simultaneous radiation measurements with 14 instruments on five flights of a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. The primary AIR instrument was a highly sensitive extended-energy multisphere neutron spectrometer with lead and steel shells placed within the moderators of two of its 14 detectors to enhance response at high energies. Detector responses were calculated for neutrons and charged hadrons at energies up to 100 GeV using MCNPX. Neutron spectra were unfolded from the measured count rates using the new MAXED code. We have measured the cosmic-ray neutron spectrum (thermal to greater than 10 GeV), total neutron fluence rate, and neutron effective dose and dose equivalent rates and their dependence on altitude and geomagnetic cutoff. The measured cosmic-ray neutron spectra have almost no thermal neutrons, a large "evaporation" peak near 1 MeV and a second broad peak near 100 MeV which contributes about 69% of the neutron effective dose. At high altitude, geomagnetic latitude has very little effect on the shape of the spectrum, but it is the dominant variable affecting neutron fluence rate, which was 8 times higher at the northernmost measurement location than it was at the southernmost. The shape of the spectrum varied only slightly with altitude from 21 km down to 12 km (56 - 201 grams per square centimeter atmospheric depth), but was significantly different on the ground. In all cases, ambient dose equivalent was greater than effective dose for cosmic-ray neutrons.

Goldhagen, P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum simulation of QED in Coulomb gauge

A recent work considered quantum simulation of Quantum Electrodynamics on a lattice in the Coulomb gauge with gauge degrees of freedom represented in the occupation basis in momentum space. In this work, we consider the more efficient representation of the gauge degrees of freedom in field basis in position space and develop a quantum algorithm for real-time simulation. We show that the continuum Coulomb gauge Hamiltonian is equivalent to the temporal gauge Hamiltonian when acting on physical states consisting of fermion and transverse gauge fields. The Coulomb gauge Hamiltonian is discretized by using the Green’s function of the discrete Laplacian operator under the Dirichlet boundary conditions. Both the continuum Coulomb gauge Hamiltonian and the discretized one proposed here guarantee that the unphysical longitudinal gauge fields are decoupled and commute with the corresponding Hamiltonian. Thus there is no need to impose any constraint. The local gauge field basis and the canonically conjugate variable basis are swapped efficiently using the quantum Fourier transform. We prove that the qubit cost to represent physical states and the gate count for real-time simulation scale polynomially with the lattice size, energy, time, accuracy, and Hamiltonian parameters in lattice units. The gate cost here for implementing the time evolution of the gauge field is reduced at least by a factor on the order of 10 8 for modest lattice size and accuracy level compared with the previous work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

NASA NTRS2000

Dynamics of airborne fungal populations in a large office building

The increasing concern with bioaerosols in large office buildings prompted this prospective study of airborne fungal concentrations in a newly constructed building on the Gulf coast. We collected volumetric culture plate air samples on 14 occasions over the 18-month period immediately following building occupancy. On each sampling occasion, we collected duplicate samples from three sites on three floors of this six-story building, and an outdoor sample. Fungal concentrations indoors were consistently below those outdoors, and no sample clearly indicated fungal contamination in the building, although visible growth appeared in the ventilation system during the course of the study. We conclude that modern mechanically ventilated buildings prevent the intrusion of most of the outdoor fungal aerosol, and that even relatively extensive air sampling protocols may not sufficiently document the microbial status of buildings.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transcript and blood-microbiome analysis towards a blood diagnostic tool for goats affected by Haemonchus contortus

The Alpine goat (Capra aegagrus hircus) is parasitized by the barber pole worm (Haemonchus contortus). Hematological parameters from transcript and metagenome analysis in the host are reflective of infestation. We explored comparisons between blood samples of control, infected, infected zoledronic acid-treated, and infected antibody (anti-γδ T cells) treated wethers under controlled conditions. Seven days post-inoculation (dpi), we identified 7,627 transcripts associated with the different treatment types. Microbiome measurements at 7 dpi revealed fewer raw read counts across all treatments and a less diverse microbial flora than at 21 dpi. This study identifies treatment specific transcripts and an increase in microflora abundance and diversity as wethers age. Further, F/B ratio reflect health, based on depression or elevation above thresholds defined by the baseline of non-infected controls. Forty Alpine wethers were studied where blood samples were collected from five goats in four treatment groups on 7 dpi and 21 dpi. Transcript and microbiome profiles were obtained using the Partek Flow (St. Louis, Missouri, USA) software suites pipelines. Inflammation comparisons were based on the Firmicutes/Bacteriodetes ratios that are calculated as well as the reduction of microbial diversity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV-2 Cases Reported on International Arriving and Domestic Flights: United States, January 2020–December 2021

Objectives. To describe trends in the number of air travelers categorized as infectious with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; the virus that causes COVID-19) in the context of total US COVID-19 vaccinations administered, and overall case counts of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. Methods. We searched the Quarantine Activity Reporting System (QARS) database for travelers with inbound international or domestic air travel, a positive SARS-CoV-2 lab result, and a surveillance categorization of SARS-CoV-2 infection reported during January 2020 to December 2021. Travelers were categorized as infectious during travel if they had arrival dates from 2 days before to 10 days after symptom onset or a positive viral test. Results. We identified 80 715 persons meeting our inclusion criteria; 67 445 persons (83.6%) had at least 1 symptom reported. Of 67 445 symptomatic passengers, 43 884 (65.1%) reported an initial symptom onset date after their flight arrival date. The number of infectious travelers mirrored the overall number of US SARS-CoV-2 cases. Conclusions. Most travelers in the study were asymptomatic during travel, and therefore unknowingly traveled while infectious. During periods of high community transmission, it is important for travelers to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations and consider wearing a high-quality mask to decrease the risk of transmission. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(8):904–908. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307325 )

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5–50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗