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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗
DOE OSTI2025

The effects of photosynthetic rate on respiration in light, starch/sucrose partitioning, and other metabolic fluxes within photosynthesis

In the future, plants may encounter increased light and elevated CO 2 levels. How consequent alterations in photosynthetic rates will impact fluxes in photosynthetic carbon metabolism remains uncertain. Respiration in light ( R L ) is pivotal in plant carbon balance and a key parameter in photosynthesis models. Understanding the dynamics of photosynthetic metabolism and R L under varying environmental conditions is essential for optimizing plant growth and agricultural productivity. However, measuring R L under high light and high CO 2 (HLHC) conditions poses challenges using traditional gas exchange methods. In this study, we employed isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis (INST-MFA) to estimate RL and investigate photosynthetic carbon flux, unveiling nuanced adjustments in Camelina sativa under HLHC. Despite numerous flux alterations in HLHC, RL remained stable. HLHC affects several factors influencing RL, such as starch and sucrose partitioning, v o /v c ratio, triose phosphate partitioning, and hexose kinase activity. Analysis of A/C i curve operational points reveals that HLHC’s major changes primarily stem from CO 2 suppressing photorespiration. Integration of these fluxes into a simplified model predicts changes in CBC labeling under HLHC. This study extends our prior discovery that incomplete CBC labeling is due to unlabeled carbon reimported during R L , offering insights into manipulating labeling through adjustments in photosynthetic rates.

Elevated CO2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-resolved biphase signatures of quadratic nonlinearity observed in coupled Alfvén eigenmodes on the DIII-D tokamak

We report the detection of nonstationary quadratic coupling between toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) on sub-millisecond time scales. Identification of phase coherency between multiple TAEs and nonlinearly generated modes is facilitated by wavelet-based bicoherence analysis of time-series from inductive coils, taken from a DIII-D discharge heated by neutral beam injection (NBI). Characterization of nonlinear three-wave interaction is inferred by stationary local bispectrum phase (biphase) and confirmed via bandpass filtering. Biphase dynamics associated with prominent bispectral features are well-resolved in time and consistent with transient quadratic coupling. Onset and duration of nonlinearity are correlated with enhanced amplitude of participating TAEs; coincident changes in amplitude are observed for modes at difference frequency |f TAE,1 - f TAE,2 |.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensing ultrashort electronic coherent beating at conical intersections by single-electron pulses

In a theoretical study, we present an ultrafast technique for probing time-dependent molecular charge densities. An ultrafast optical pump first brings the molecule into an electronic nonstationary state. This is followed by coherent inelastic scattering of a broadband single-electron probe pulse with a variable delay T, which is detected spectrally. The technique is applied to reveal phase-sensitive background-free coherent electron beating in the conical intersection passage in uracil and reveals the otherwise elusive coherent beating of strongly coupled electrons and nuclei.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene

Climate change and human activities alter the global freshwater cycle, causing nonstationary processes as its distribution shifting over time, yet a comprehensive understanding of these changes remains elusive. Here, we develop a remote sensing–informed terrestrial reanalysis and assess the nonstationarity of and interconnections among global water cycle components from 2003 to 2020. We highlight 20 hotspot regions where terrestrial water storage exhibits strong nonstationarity, impacting 35% of the global population and 45% of the area covered by irrigated agriculture. Emerging long-term trends dominate the most often (48.2%), followed by seasonal shifts (32.8%) and changes in extremes (19%). Notably, in mid-latitudes, this encompasses 34% of Asia and 27% of North America. The patterns of nonstationarity and their dominant types differ across other water cycle components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and gross primary production. These differences also manifest uniquely across hotspot regions, illustrating the intricate ways in which each component responds to climate change and human water management. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering nonstationarity when assessing water cycle information toward the development of strategies for sustainable water resource usage, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and effectively addressing other challenges associated with climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Metabolic rewiring and biomass redistribution enable optimized mixotrophic growth in Chlamydomonas

Aquatic photosynthetic systems account for approximately one-half of all global carbon assimilation and could be a significant source of renewable fuels and feedstocks. However, rapid growth and biomass production in algae have not always translated into high product yields, partly because central metabolism is context specific, with metabolic fluxes being influenced by nutrient conditions and other environmental factors. In the green microalga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii (Chlamydomonas), mixotrophic cultures (acetate + light) grow far faster than phototrophic (light only) or heterotrophic (acetate + dark) cultures, even though acetate partially suppresses photosynthesis. Here, an isotopic dilution strategy with unlabeled acetate was combined with 13 CO 2 transient labeling to perform isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis (INST-MFA) and to directly compare autotrophic and mixotrophic metabolism in Chlamydomonas supported by data from transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. INST-MFA indicated that acetate induces a synergistic rewiring of metabolism, conserving carbon by using the glyoxylate cycle and suppressing gluconeogenesis, the latter of which was discordant with omics results and prior models. Additionally, our data provide a plausible rationale for the well-known suppression of photosynthesis by acetate. We propose that reduced total protein content in mixotrophic versus phototrophic cells, much of which is attributed to reduced levels of photosynthetic proteins, decreases the costly metabolic burden of protein synthesis and represents a growth rate optimization strategy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Instantaneous difference frequency locking observed during toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmode coupling in the DIII-D tokamak

In magnetic confinement fusion, toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) are well-studied, weakly stable solutions of the linearized ideal magnetohydrodynamic equations. Driven unstable by suprathermal populations of energetic particles, TAE pose a key vulnerability to the confinement of high-energy alpha particles generated by fusion reactions. Hence, it is paramount to understand TAE dynamics if a working reactor is to be realized. In this work, we detect and characterize signatures of nonstationary nonlinear coupling between TAE using a novel, time-resolved bispectral analysis; results are supported by analytic signal of band-passed data. Crucially, a stationary phase relationship between two TAE and a nascent low frequency fluctuation is observed precisely when the triple product of magnetic fluctuation amplitudes is enhanced. Local mode number and frequency spectrum, gleaned from beam-emission spectroscopy, corroborates simultaneous satisfaction of nonlinear matching conditions, and provides a tool to identify theorized pathways of energy transfer, e.g. TAE parametric instability.

bispectral analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase-Dependent Squeezing in Dual-Comb Interferometry

Manipulating the quantum noise of continuous-wave lasers through squeezing has reshaped optical interferometry. However, progress in optical frequency comb interferometry with pulsed squeezed sources has been limited, despite the role of frequency combs in ultraprecise optical metrology. Here, we introduce a new time-domain approach to characterizing squeezed femtosecond light pulses using dual-comb interferometry. Time-domain interferograms are generated via multiheterodyne beating between the modes of a Kerr soliton-squeezed frequency comb and a coherent state comb. The interferogram noise reveals phase-dependent squeezing and antisqueezing, dipping as much as 3.8 ± 0.2 dB below the shot noise level at alternating zero crossings. We model this nonstationary quantum noise as a periodic optical displacement of the squeezed comb by the coherent comb. These results support a route toward quantum-enhanced dual-comb timing applications and high-speed quantum state tomography with dual-comb interferometers.

Herman, Daniel Issac [University of Colorado, Boul↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic constraints for the equation of state and structure of neutron stars: A Bayesian model mixing framework

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can combine constraints from different regions of an input space in a principled way. Here we extend our BMM framework for the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting matter from symmetric nuclear matter to asymmetric matter, specifically focusing on zero-temperature, charge-neutral, 𝛽-equilibrated matter. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) to infer constraints on the neutron-star matter EOS at intermediate densities from two different microscopic theories: chiral effective-field theory (𝜒⁢EFT) at baryon densities around nuclear saturation, 𝑛 𝐵 ∼ 𝑛 0 , and perturbative QCD at asymptotically high baryon densities, 𝑛 𝐵 ⩾ 20⁢𝑛 0 . The uncertainties of the 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD EOSs are obtained using the BUQEYE truncation error model. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through the use of two categories of GP kernels: conventional stationary kernels and a nonstationary changepoint kernel. We use the latter to explore potential constraints on the dense matter EOS by including exogenous data representing theory predictions and heavy-ion collision measurements at densities ⩾ 2⁢𝑛 0 . We also use our EOSs to obtain neutron-star mass-radius relations and their uncertainties. Finally, our framework, whose implementation will be available through a GitHub repository, provides a prior distribution for the EOS that can be used in large-scale neutron-star inference frameworks.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlated purification for restoring 𝑁-representability in quantum simulation

Experimentally measured reduced density matrices (RDMs) often violate constraints that ensure they represent N-electron states—known as N-representability conditions—because of statistical and hardware noise. In this work, we present a correlated purification framework based on semidefinite programming to restore the accuracy of a noisy, unphysical two-electron RDM (2-RDM). The method performs a bi-objective optimization that minimizes both the many-electron energy and the nuclear norm of the correction to the measured 2-RDM. The nuclear norm, often employed in matrix completion, promotes low-rank corrections, while the energy term acts as a regularization term that can improve the purity of the ground state. While the method is particularly effective for ground states, it can also be applied to excited and nonstationary states by decreasing the weight of the energy relative to the error norm. In an application to fermionic shadow tomography of large hydrogen chains, correlated purification yields substantial reductions in both energy and 2-RDM error, achieving chemical accuracy across dissociation curves. This framework provides a robust strategy for tomography in many-body quantum simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark matter clumps as sources of gravitational-wave glitches in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data

We consider the hypothetical possibility that nonstationary glitch features in the noise of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors could be produced by small dark matter clumps that pass through the earth in the vicinity of gravitational-wave detectors. Here, we first derive the gravitational-wave strain that would be generated by the passage of such a dark matter clump. We find that the strain is primarily sourced by the Newtonian gravitational acceleration of the mirrors toward the clump and by the Shapiro time delay of the photons in the laser beams as they pass through the gravitational potential created by the dark matter clump. We also find that the Newtonian acceleration effect dominates the gravitational-wave strain for both ground and space-based interferometers. We then compare our dark matter clump, gravitational-wave strain model to 84 Koi-Fish glitches detected during the second observing run of the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Collaboration through a Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian analysis. We find that all glitches but nine can be confidently rejected as having originated from dark matter clumps. For the remaining glitches, the dark matter hypothesis cannot be excluded, and the maximum a posteriori parameters yield minimum densities of about 10 −7 g⁡/cm 3 , within the model. These results allow us to place the first direct upper limits with gravitational-wave detectors on the local over-density of dark matter in the form of clumps in the local neighborhood of Earth, namely 𝜌 DM ⁢clumps ≲ 10 −15 g⁡/cm −3 .

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

From chiral effective field theory to perturbative QCD: A Bayesian model mixing approach to symmetric nuclear matter

Constraining the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting, dense matter is the focus of intense experimental, observational, and theoretical effort. Chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ) can describe the EOS between the typical densities of nuclei and those in the outer cores of neutron stars, while perturbative QCD (pQCD) can be applied to properties of deconfined quark matter, both with quantified theoretical uncertainties. However, describing the full range of densities in between with a single EOS that has well-quantified uncertainties is a challenging problem. Bayesian multimodel inference from 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD can help bridge the gap between the two theories. In this work, we introduce a correlated Bayesian model mixing framework that uses a Gaussian process (GP) to assimilate different information into a single QCD EOS for symmetric nuclear matter. The present implementation uses a stationary GP to infer this mixed EOS solely from the EOSs of 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD while accounting for the truncation errors of each theory. The GP is trained on the pressure as a function of number density in the low- and high-density regions where 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD are, respectively, valid. We impose priors on the GP kernel hyperparameters to suppress unphysical correlations between these regimes. This, together with the assumption of stationarity, results in smooth 𝜒⁢EFT-to-pQCD curves for both the pressure and the speed of sound. We show that using uncorrelated mixing requires uncontrolled extrapolation of at least one of 𝜒⁢EFT or pQCD into regions where the perturbative series breaks down and leads to an acausal EOS. Here, we also discuss extensions of this framework to nonstationary and less differentiable GP kernels, its future application to neutron-star matter, and the incorporation of additional constraints from nuclear theory, experiment, and multimessenger astronomy.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistics and sensitivity of axion wind detection with the homogeneous precession domain of superfluid helium-3

The homogeneous precession domain (HPD) of superfluid He 3 has recently been identified as a detection medium which might provide sensitivity to the axion-nucleon coupling g a N N competitive with, or surpassing, existing experimental proposals. In this work, we make a detailed study of the statistical and dynamical properties of the HPD system in order to make realistic projections for a full-fledged experimental program. We include the effects of clock error and measurement error in a concrete readout scheme using superconducting qubits and quantum metrology. This work also provides a more general framework to describe the statistics associated with the axion gradient coupling through the treatment of a transient resonance with a nonstationary background in a time-series analysis. Incorporating an optimal data-taking and analysis strategy, we project a sensitivity approaching g a N N ∼ 10 − 12 GeV − 1 across a decade in axion mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Activity-induced propulsion and separation of passive chiral particles in liquids

Recent literature shows that chiral particles driven by vorticity gradients of a base Newtonian liquid can separate only in nonlinear or nonstationary flows. Here, we show that a base Newtonian liquid endowed with rotational degrees of freedom, can give rise to chiral particle propulsion and separation even in the Stokes flow approximation. We consider active mechanisms generating spatially inhomogeneous vorticity in the base liquid in a channel such as a magnetic torque, a pressure gradient and a sliding wall. These mechanisms generate regions of spatially inhomogeneous vorticity maintained by the internal angular momentum, propelling the chiral particles according to their handedness. Similar conclusions can be reached when one of the channel walls is replaced by a free surface acted on by surface shear. This behavior is in contrast to the case of standard Newtonian liquids where chiral particle propulsion generated by vorticity gradients is not possible in Stokes flow. Furthermore, this effect can find applications in industry, biology and medicine.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗