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At least 55 records · Page 3

Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical schemes. Depending on the application, we find that different time stepping methods are optimal. Several of the time integration schemes exploit the block-based granularity of the grid structure. The framework and the adaptive algorithms enable physics based space weather modeling and even forecasting.

Toth, Gabor↗

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗

Tracking Object Existence From an Autonomous Patrol Vehicle

An autonomous vehicle patrols a large region, during which an algorithm receives measurements of detected potential objects within its sensor range. The goal of the algorithm is to track all objects in the region over time. This problem differs from traditional multi-target tracking scenarios because the region of interest is much larger than the sensor range and relies on the movement of the sensor through this region for coverage. The goal is to know whether anything has changed between visits to the same location. In particular, two kinds of alert conditions must be detected: (1) a previously detected object has disappeared and (2) a new object has appeared in a location already checked. For the time an object is within sensor range, the object can be assumed to remain stationary, changing position only between visits. The problem is difficult because the upstream object detection processing is likely to make many errors, resulting in heavy clutter (false positives) and missed detections (false negatives), and because only noisy, bearings-only measurements are available. This work has three main goals: (1) Associate incoming measurements with known objects or mark them as new objects or false positives, as appropriate. For this, a multiple hypothesis tracker was adapted to this scenario. (2) Localize the objects using multiple bearings-only measurements to provide estimates of global position (e.g., latitude and longitude). A nonlinear Kalman filter extension provides these 2D position estimates using the 1D measurements. (3) Calculate the probability that a suspected object truly exists (in the estimated position), and determine whether alert conditions have been triggered (for new objects or disappeared objects). The concept of a probability of existence was created, and a new Bayesian method for updating this probability at each time step was developed. A probabilistic multiple hypothesis approach is chosen because of its superiority in handling the uncertainty arising from errors in sensors and upstream processes. However, traditional target tracking methods typically assume a stationary detection volume of interest, whereas in this case, one must make adjustments for being able to see only a small portion of the region of interest and understand when an alert situation has occurred. To track object existence inside and outside the vehicle's sensor range, a probability of existence was defined for each hypothesized object, and this value was updated at every time step in a Bayesian manner based on expected characteristics of the sensor and object and whether that object has been detected in the most recent time step. Then, this value feeds into a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to determine the status of the object (suspected, confirmed, or deleted). Alerts are sent upon selected status transitions. Additionally, in order to track objects that move in and out of sensor range and update the probability of existence appropriately a variable probability detection has been defined and the hypothesis probability equations have been re-derived to accommodate this change. Unsupervised object tracking is a pervasive issue in automated perception systems. This work could apply to any mobile platform (ground vehicle, sea vessel, air vehicle, or orbiter) that intermittently revisits regions of interest and needs to determine whether anything interesting has changed.

Wolf, Michael↗

Gravitational waves and red shifts - A space experiment for testing relativistic gravity using multiple time-correlated radio signals

A two-step satellite mission for improving the accuracy of gravitational wave detection and for observing actual gravity waveforms is proposed. The spacecraft would carry both a highly stable hydrogen maser, which would control a transmitter sending signals to earth, and a Doppler transponder operating in the two-way mode. The use of simultaneous one- and two-way Doppler transmissions offers four time records of frequency pulsations, which can reveal gravitational radiation at 1-10 MHz with an amplitude accuracy of a factor of six. The first mission phase would consist of a Shuttle launch into a highly eccentric orbit to obtain measurements of the gravitational redshift using gravitational potentials of different earth regions to establish that gravity is describable by a metric theory. Then, after a boost into a heliocentric orbit at 6 AU, the earth-satellite system could detect gravitational waves in the solar system, as well as bursts emitted by the collisions of supermassive black holes.

Smarr, L. L.↗

Lack of robustness and accuracy of many numerical schemes for phase-field simulations

In this paper, we study the stability, accuracy and convergence behavior of various numerical schemes for phase-field modeling through a simple ODE model. Both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments are carried out on this ODE model to demonstrate the limitation of most numerical schemes that have been used in practice. One main conclusion is that the first-order fully implicit scheme is the only robust algorithm for phase-field simulations while all other schemes (that have been analyzed) may have convergence issue if the time step size is not exceedingly small. More specifically, by rigorous analysis in most cases, we have the following conclusions: (i) The first-order fully implicit scheme converges to the correct steady state solution for all time step sizes. In the case of multiple solutions, one of the solution branches always converges to the correct steady state solution. (ii) The first-order convex splitting scheme, which is equivalent to the first-order fully implicit scheme with a different time scaling, always converges to the correct steady state solution but may seriously lack numerical accuracy for transient solutions. (iii) For the second-order fully implicit and convex splitting schemes, for any time step size $δt > 0$, there exists an initial condition $u_0$ , with $|u_0| > 1$, such that the numerical solution converges to the wrong steady state solution. (iv) For $|u_0|$ ≤ 1, all second-order schemes studied in this paper converge to the correct steady state solution although severe numerical oscillations occur for most of them if the time step size is not sufficiently small. (v) An unconditionally energy-stable scheme (such as the modified Crank–Nicolson scheme) is not necessarily better than a conditionally energy-stable scheme (such as the Crank–Nicolson scheme). Finally, most, if not all, of the above conclusions are expected to be true for more general Allen–Cahn and other phase-field models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HITEMP Material and Structural Optimization Technology Transfer

The feasibility of adding viscoelasticity and the Generalized Method of Cells (GMC) for micromechanical viscoelastic behavior into the commercial HyperSizer structural analysis and optimization code was investigated. The viscoelasticity methodology was developed in four steps. First, a simplified algorithm was devised to test the iterative time stepping method for simple one-dimensional multiple ply structures. Second, GMC code was made into a callable subroutine and incorporated into the one-dimensional code to test the accuracy and usability of the code. Third, the viscoelastic time-stepping and iterative scheme was incorporated into HyperSizer for homogeneous, isotropic viscoelastic materials. Finally, the GMC was included in a version of HyperSizer. MS Windows executable files implementing each of these steps is delivered with this report, as well as source code. The findings of this research are that both viscoelasticity and GMC are feasible and valuable additions to HyperSizer and that the door is open for more advanced nonlinear capability, such as viscoplasticity.

Collier, Craig S.↗

Time-dependent aerodynamic analysis of ducted and unducted propfans at angle of attack

A three-dimensional unsteady aerodynamic analysis is described for predicting the time-dependent flow about ducted and unducted propfans operating at angle of attack. Although the freestream is assumed to be uniform, the flow relative to the rotating blades varies with circumferential position, resulting in an inherent unsteadiness due to the nonaxial inflow. The time-dependent Euler equations are solved utilizing a Runge-Kutta time-stepping scheme. The analysis is based on a finite-volume discretization employing a multiple-block grid network. To permit the use of large calculation time steps, an implicit residual smoothing scheme previously tested for unsteady flow calculations in two dimensions is extended to three spatial dimensions. For unducted propfans, a single H-type grid block is used for each blade passage to determine the time-periodic flowfield. For ducted propfans (ultra-high bypass fans) a body-centered C-type grid is wrapped about the cowl to improve the accuracy of the analysis in the high gradient flow region near the cowl leading edge. Numerical results are compared with available data for both ducted and unducted propfans operating at angle of attack.

Hall, Edward J.↗

High-order multirate explicit time-stepping schemes for the baroclinic-barotropic split dynamics in primitive equations

In order to treat the multiple time scales of ocean dynamics in an efficient manner, the baroclinic-barotropic splitting technique has been widely used for solving the primitive equations for ocean modeling. Based on the framework of strong stability-preserving Runge-Kutta approach, we propose two high-order multirate explicit time-stepping schemes (SSPRK2-SE and SSPRK3-SE) for the resulting split system in this paper. The proposed schemes allow for a large time step to be used for the three-dimensional baroclinic (slow) mode and a small time step for the two-dimensional barotropic (fast) mode, in which each of the two mode solves just need to satisfy their respective CFL conditions for numerical stability. Specifically, at each time step, the baroclinic velocity is first computed by advancing the baroclinic mode and fluid thickness of the system with the large time-step and the assistance of some intermediate approximations of the barotropicmode obtained by substepping with the small time step; then the barotropic velocity is corrected by using the small time step to re-advance the barotropic mode un-der an improved barotropic forcing produced by interpolation of the forcing terms from the preceding baroclinic mode solves; lastly, the fluid thickness is updated by coupling the baroclinic and barotropic velocities. Additionally, numerical inconsistencies on the discretized sea surface height caused by the mode splitting are relieved via a reconciliation process with carefully calculated flux deficits. Here, two benchmark tests from the “MPAS-Ocean” platform are carried out to numerically demonstrate the performance and parallel scalability of the proposed SSPRK-SE schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient co-solution of time step size and independent state in simulations of fluid-driven fracture propagation with embedded meshes

Here we present an efficient time-continuation scheme for fluid-driven fracture propagation problems in the extended finite element method framework. The approach applies a monolithic solution strategy to a fully coupled and implicit approximation of hydro-mechanical systems in conjunction with simultaneous linear elastic propagation of multiple fractures. At the end of each time step, the process ensures that the weakest fracture tip is in an equilibrium propagation regime. Furthermore, the solution process provides an initialization procedure for the newly created fracture spaces and an a priori estimate of the stress intensity factor growth rate, improving simulation robustness, and efficiency. The solution process is validated using the Kristianovich-Geertsma-de Klerk analytical solution under the toughness- and viscosity-dominated regimes. It is also extended to and demonstrated on problems with multiple fractures undergoing simultaneous propagation with stress shadow interactions. Numerical examples demonstrate that the solution process can reduce the required computational cost by one order of magnitude compared to other existing methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-Time Adaptive Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones

An adaptive generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The algorithm employs gradient descent to update the GPC coefficients at each time step. The adaptive control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. The algorithm was also able t o maintain suppression of multiple cavity tones as the freestream Mach number was varied over a modest range (0.275 to 0.29). Controller performance was evaluated with a measure of output disturbance rejection and an input sensitivity transfer function. The results suggest that disturbances entering the cavity flow are colocated with the control input at the cavity leading edge. In that case, only tonal components of the cavity wall-pressure fluctuations can be suppressed and arbitrary broadband pressure reduction is not possible. In the control-algorithm development, the cavity dynamics are treated as linear and time invariant (LTI) for a fixed Mach number. The experimental results lend support this treatment.

Kegerise, Michael A.↗

Enhanced Cross-Correlation Inter-Detector Timing

Inter-detector timing is one of the key steps for compositing signals obtained by multiple detectors. Conventionally this is done via inversing time gamma functions of individual detectors and then matching their times at the same gamma level. The applicability of the gamma inverse approach is often restricted to the monotonic gamma functions. This presentation presents a novel approach for inter-detector timing. This new approach introduced an enhanced cross-correlation of gamma values between two time intervals of two detectors. If this enhanced cross-correlation is close to 1, then both intervals should cover the same gamma segment of the signal. Consequently the time shift between the two detector can be derived from the time shift of the these two time intervals. This work will be presented at the 4th Annual Reaction History Analysis Workshop in North Las Vegas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Framework for Simulating Turbine-Based Combined-Cycle Inlet Mode-Transition

A simulation framework based on the Memory-Mapped-Files technique was created to operate multiple numerical processes in locked time-steps and send I/O data synchronously across to one-another to simulate system-dynamics. This simulation scheme is currently used to study the complex interactions between inlet flow-dynamics, variable-geometry actuation mechanisms, and flow-controls in the transition from the supersonic to hypersonic conditions and vice-versa. A study of Mode-Transition Control for a high-speed inlet wind-tunnel model with this MMF-based framework is presented to illustrate this scheme and demonstrate its usefulness in simulating supersonic and hypersonic inlet dynamics and controls or other types of complex systems.

Le, Dzu K.↗

Probabilistic Discrete‐Time Models for Spreading Processes in Complex Networks: A Review

Abstract Research into network dynamics of spreading processes typically employs both discrete and continuous time methodologies. Although each approach offers distinct insights, integrating them can be challenging, particularly when maintaining coherence across different time scales. This review focuses on the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), a probabilistic f ramework originally designed for epidemic modeling. MMCA uses discrete dynamics to compute the probabilities of individuals transitioning between epidemiological states. By treating each time step—usually a day—as a discrete event, the approach captures multiple concurrent changes within this time frame. The approach allows to estimate the likelihood of individuals or populations being in specific states, which correspond to distinct epidemiological compartments. This review synthesizes key findings from the application of this approach, providing a comprehensive overview of its utility in understanding epidemic spread.

Granell, Clara↗

Fault Slip and Fluid Flow: Seismic Source Analysis to Assess Role of Multiple Slip Patches in Fault Permeability

The relationship between fault reactivation, microearthquakes (MEQs), and permeability evolution during fluid injection plays a critical role in energy harvesting and waste disposal. Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of predicting fault permeability using cumulative seismic moments of MEQs quantitatively. To understand the underlying physical processes, we conduct fault reactivation experiments using Utah FORGE granitoid and analyze acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during stepwise increases in fluid injection pressure. Frequency analysis of thousands of calibrated AE signals reveals that fault reactivation produces multiple AE source patches with millimeter-scale radii—smaller than the sample fault radius. The cumulative area of the reactivated patches covers the fault multiple times over (∼10x–50x area) for each pressure step. These findings provide mechanistic insight that measured permeability enhancement is not driven by a single large slip event, but by the sequential and interacting activation of multiple slip patches that create a continuous flow pathway.

Nurshal, M. E. M. [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

Time-Accurate Local Time Stepping and High-Order Time CESE Methods for Multi-Dimensional Flows Using Unstructured Meshes

With the wide availability of affordable multiple-core parallel supercomputers, next generation numerical simulations of flow physics are being focused on unsteady computations for problems involving multiple time scales and multiple physics. These simulations require higher solution accuracy than most algorithms and computational fluid dynamics codes currently available. This paper focuses on the developmental effort for high-fidelity multi-dimensional, unstructured-mesh flow solvers using the space-time conservation element, solution element (CESE) framework. Two approaches have been investigated in this research in order to provide high-accuracy, cross-cutting numerical simulations for a variety of flow regimes: 1) time-accurate local time stepping and 2) highorder CESE method. The first approach utilizes consistent numerical formulations in the space-time flux integration to preserve temporal conservation across the cells with different marching time steps. Such approach relieves the stringent time step constraint associated with the smallest time step in the computational domain while preserving temporal accuracy for all the cells. For flows involving multiple scales, both numerical accuracy and efficiency can be significantly enhanced. The second approach extends the current CESE solver to higher-order accuracy. Unlike other existing explicit high-order methods for unstructured meshes, the CESE framework maintains a CFL condition of one for arbitrarily high-order formulations while retaining the same compact stencil as its second-order counterpart. For large-scale unsteady computations, this feature substantially enhances numerical efficiency. Numerical formulations and validations using benchmark problems are discussed in this paper along with realistic examples.

Chang, Chau-Lyan↗

Grid generation, coupling strategies, and spatially-dependent time stepping for ocean-tidal/estuary systems and other ESM components (Final Report)

There are many multiple scale issues in the ocean modeling, including different mesh resolutions (local) and different physical processes (global). In order to gain efficiency and fidelity in modern ESMs, it is vital to develop high quality, highly nonuniform meshes and spatially-dependent time stepping strategies for coupling various climate system components. The USC/FSU team has worked on the design, analysis, and implementation of fast CVT grid generation and novel time- stepping schemes that could address all the requirements for global and regional ocean models on highly nonuniform meshes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Construction of Polarimetric Radar-Based Reference Rain Maps for the Iowa Flood Studies Campaign

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in central and northeastern Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. Specific science objectives for IFloodS included quantification of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based estimates of precipitation, 4-D characterization of precipitation physical processes and associated parameters (e.g., size distributions, water contents, types, structure etc.), assessment of the impact of precipitation estimation uncertainty and physical processes on hydrologic predictive skill, and refinement of field observations and data analysis approaches as they pertain to future GPM integrated hydrologic validation and related field studies. In addition to field campaign archival of raw and processed satellite data (including precipitation products), key ground-based platforms such as the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars, University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, a large network of paired rain gauge platforms, and a large network of 2D Video and Parsivel disdrometers were deployed. In something of a canonical approach, the radar (NPOL in particular), gauge and disdrometer observational assets were deployed to create a consistent high-quality distributed (time and space sampling) radar-based ground "reference" rainfall dataset, with known uncertainties, that could be used for assessing the satellite-based precipitation products at a range of space/time scales. Subsequently, the impact of uncertainties in the satellite products could be evaluated relative to the ground-benchmark in coupled weather, land-surface and distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks as related to flood prediction. Relative to establishing the ground-based "benchmark", numerous avenues were pursued in the making and verification of IFloodS "reference" dual-polarimetric radar-based rain maps, and this study documents the process and results as they pertain specifically to efforts using the NPOL radar dataset. The initial portions of the "process" involved dual-polarimetric quality control procedures which employed standard phase and correlation-based approaches to removal of clutter and non-meteorological echo. Calculation of a scale-adaptive KDP was accomplished using the method of Wang and Chandrasekar (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). A dual-polarimetric blockage algorithm based on Lang et al. (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.) was then implemented to correct radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity at low elevation angles. Next, hydrometeor identification algorithms were run to identify liquid and ice hydrometeors. After the quality control and data preparation steps were completed several different dual-polarimetric rain estimation algorithms were employed to estimate rainfall rates using rainfall scans collected approximately every two to three minutes throughout the campaign. These algorithms included a polarimetrically-tuned Z-R algorithm that adjusts for drop oscillations (via Bringi et al., 2004, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.), and several different hybrid polarimetric variable approaches, including one that made use of parameters tuned to IFloodS 2D Video Disdrometer measurements. Finally, a hybrid scan algorithm was designed to merge the rain rate estimates from multiple low level elevation angle scans (where blockages could not be appropriately corrected) in order to create individual low-level rain maps. Individual rain maps at each time step were subsequently accumulated over multiple time scales for comparison to gauge network data. The comparison results and overall error character depended strongly on rain event type, polarimetric estimator applied, and range from the radar. We will present the outcome of these comparisons and their impact on constructing composited "reference" rainfall maps at select time and space scales.

Radar↗

Robust bidding strategy for aggregation of distributed prosumers in flexiramp market

Distributed prosumers (DPs) are the grid customers that own energy production/storage assets. Due to the flexibility and fast response of their assets, they can procure ancillary service products (ASP) in the wholesale market. An appealing ASP offered by California ISO in the real-time market (RTM) is flexiramp for which market participants do not submit direct offers, and the compensation is based on their energy opportunity costs. Here in this report, we propose a bidding strategy model for DP aggregator participation in the RTM considering energy and flexiramp. First, we develop a risk-averse optimization to determine the optimal energy and reserve product to trade in day-ahead market while considering proper amounts of flexiramp to trade in the RTM. In the RTM, to obtain optimal amounts of energy and flexiramp, the aggregator must submit hourly multi-level price-quantity energy bids for multiple RTM intervals with 15 min time-steps. On this basis, we propose a robust hourly economic bidding strategy model that determines the optimal energy bids in the RTM. We develop an adjustable robust counterpart of the model to address the RTM energy and flexiramp price uncertainties. The simulation results justify the efficacy of our proposed framework in gaining profits from the wholesale market.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗