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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geologic Framework Model for the Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) Experiment Testbed Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site

Geologic framework models (GFMs) provide a methodology for integrating geology into, and thus geologically informing, other modeling and simulation activities. GFMs provide a threedimensional (3-D), geology-based digital framework for developing and parametrizing meshes and evaluating model and simulation results. This report describes a 3-D GFM constructed for the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Dry Alluvium Geology test series located in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site. The geology in the Yucca Flat region is complex and diverse, which creates challenges to modeling seismic wave propagation from SPE tests. The Yucca Flat GFM helps address these challenges by providing the 3-D distribution of relevant geologic features and physical properties necessary to more effectively model seismic wave propagation. The GFM includes 7 model layers and 48 faults that cut and offset the layers. An appendix is included that provides quantitative data on physical properties for each model layer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geologic framework model for the Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) experiment testbed, Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site

Geologic framework models (GFMs) provide a methodology for integrating geology into, and thus geologically informing, other modeling and simulation activities. GFMs provide a three-dimensional (3-D), geology-based digital framework for developing and parametrizing meshes and evaluating model and simulation results. This report describes a 3-D GFM constructed for the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Dry Alluvium Geology test series located in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site. The geology in the Yucca Flat region is complex and diverse, which creates challenges to modeling seismic wave propagation from SPE tests. The Yucca Flat GFM helps address these challenges by providing the 3-D distribution of relevant geologic features and physical properties necessary to more effectively model seismic wave propagation. The GFM includes 7 model layers and 48 faults that cut and offset the layers. An appendix is included that provides quantitative data on physical properties for each model layer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the effect of mixing-driven vaporization in a homogeneous relaxation modeling framework

The homogeneous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid–gas phase transition in multiphase flows due to the occurrence of cavitation. However, in its original formulation, the HRM does not account for the presence of ambient gas species, which generally limits its applicability to the injector's internal flow where ambient gases are negligible. In this work, a mixing-driven vaporization (MDV) model was developed to extend the capability of the HRM in handling the mixing effect in the regions external to the nozzle, where vapor–liquid equilibrium for multi-species mixtures of fuel and ambient gas is considered. Herein, to assess the model performance, simulations of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed with the HRM and the MDV model under both flash-boiling and evaporating conditions. It was found that the MDV model led to a better match against x-ray measurements of fuel density in the near-nozzle region. In contrast to the HRM, the MDV model was able to reproduce the vaporization process in the mixing zone at the edge of the fuel jet, which aligns with the expected physics. This resulted in substantial differences in the prediction of other flow characteristics such as mixture temperature and pressure. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that evaporation timescales have a considerable effect on the MDV model's predictions, as shown by a parametric study in which a time factor was introduced to mimic the effect of different timescales due to different phase change mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2024

An integrated modeling framework with open architecture for phase field simulation of multi-component alloys

An integrated modeling framework (PanPhaseField) has been developed, which enables a direct and fast coupling between CALPHAD calculations and large-scale phase field simulations for multi-component alloys. Further, it adopts an open architecture allowing for integration of user-defined phase field models in a plug-and-play manner by taking full advantage of the user-friendly graphical interface of Pandat software. The developed modeling platform becomes an enabling tool that can be used to simulate the evolution of spatially varying microstructures of industrial complex alloys for various engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ~150 km) and high (HR; ~25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS-like events, in-part because they underestimate high-level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud-resolving models embedded in each grid-column of ~150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1-MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large-scale environment in E3SMv1-MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1-MMF are associated with biases in low-level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low-level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high-resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer-scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rethink hydrologic modeling framework with AI integrating multi-processes across scales

The proposed work is to develop a new hydrologic modeling framework that leverages vast amount earth and human system observational data, AI technologies, and data-driven information flows to improve predictability of hydrologic system that involves hydrologic, terrestrial, and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the human and atmosphere systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subject-specific modeling framework for particle deposition using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying particle deposition and dose in the respiratory tract requires a physiologically realistic representation and reproducible computational workflows. However, existing modeling frameworks, such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) compartmental models and the Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) tool, lack detailed deposition profiles and subject-specific capabilities. The combination of advances in computer vision algorithms applied to the respiratory tract and Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics (CFPD) allows high-fidelity simulations of particle behavior in anatomically accurate geometries derived from individual CT scans. The segmentation, preprocessing, and file preparation task for a CFPD simulation was often time-consuming, and no prior studies to-date have yet presented a fully automated framework. This work presents a fully automated workflow to obtain individualized particle deposition profiles in the human respiratory tract. The pipeline starts with segmenting upper and lower airway geometries using morphological and deep learning-based methods, generating three-dimensional (3D) models from CT imaging data. Next, a series of algorithms are presented to quality check and prepare the 3D geometry for a CFD or CFPD simulation. The preprocessing step includes correcting geometric artifacts, enforcing a physically consistent mesh, and automatically identifying and capping multiple outlets, which is required for CFD/CFPD simulations. These processed models are then input into open-source (OpenFOAM) or commercial (StarCCM+) CFD solvers, where flow and transient particle transport equations — including turbulence and particle–wall interactions are solved under realistic breathing conditions. Finally, the resulting particle deposition profiles can be integrated with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes and state-of-the-art computational phantoms to assess organ-specific absorbed doses in scenarios of radioactive aerosol inhalation. The presented work streamlines respiratory tract segmentation, preprocessing for CFD/CFPD simulations, and integration with dose assessment workflows, reducing manual intervention and improving access to high-fidelity, subject-specific modeling. The high precision in predicted particle deposition and dose distributions can improve personalized treatment strategies in respiratory medicine and refine dose estimates for radiation protection.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (Final Report)

This report documents the FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target (TSPT) of developing an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (FREDA). Over Q1-Q4, new capabilities were developed across both plasma and engineering domains and demonstrated on an example representation of a Compact Advanced Tokamak with a Dual Cooled Lead Lithium blanket. This represents a first-of-a-kind demonstration of coupled core-to-wall-to-engineering for a reactor. Self-consistent CESOL workflows were applied to provide core, pedestal, and SOL prediction; new modules were developed for energetic particle stability (FAR3D) and transport (TGLF-EP) analysis; and boundary plasma modeling (SOLPS-ITER, BOUT++/Hermes-3) was expanded to evaluate wall and divertor heat fluxes and interface with engineering thermal analysis. A parameterized CAD tool, TRACER, was expanded to generate medium-fidelity divertor, blanket, and coil geometries; OpenFOAM and Diablo workflows were applied for first-wall and divertor thermal analyses with helium cooling; and reduced-order models were created for high-mass-flux divertor cooling. Magnet multiphysics capabilities were verified between Elmer, Diablo, and a new MFEM-based solver, and workflows enable stress, thermal, and neutron-fluence analysis of TF coils with neutronics-driven heating. Nuclear and blanket analysis workflows were demonstrated, including tritium breeding, transport, and CFD-informed thermo-mechanical assessment. Preliminary multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification workflows were applied to boundary modeling codes and shown to achieve variance reductions with fewer high-fidelity boundary simulations. Key findings highlight the challenges of resolving the ITEP gap to find suitable balance between wall and divertor loads, neutron heating, and practical limits of PFC cooling. Next step priorities are to develop automated workflows to check boundary code convergence and detachment, implement tighter physics-engineering CAD provenance tracking, and inclusion of plasma-material interface models for SLAG and tungsten cracking behavior. Collectively, these developments establish sophisticated capabilities for predictive, multi-fidelity, whole-device modeling that integrates plasma physics, materials, magnets, and nuclear engineering to guide pathways to viable Fusion Pilot Plant design points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

REDOTHERM: a thermodynamic modeling framework for redox-based thermochemical processes

Two-step thermochemical redox cycles are being developed as a potential pathway for the production of hydrogen and syngas. While there are many possible reactor and system configurations, moving oxide systems are considered promising in terms of the redox thermodynamics, due to the potential implementation of a countercurrent system that can achieve higher performance compared to other configurations. There is a lack of a robust thermodynamic modeling framework in the field, with multiple models incorporating incorrect thermodynamic assumptions that violate the second law of thermodynamics. We present in this work REDOTHERM, an open-source system model for moving oxides that incorporates the correct thermodynamic limits, as well as various options for the system auxiliary units including product separation, heat recovery, and oxygen removal. The model is agnostic to the energy source, and could be used for solar thermal or other configurations. We highlight the uses of this model, presenting some of the tradeoffs and challenges in redox-active material selection and how they affect the entire thermochemical hydrogen production process. This model could be easily adapted and used for material exploration, system/reactor design, and technoeconomic analysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Evaluating Grid Disturbances

Recent research in the literature proposed parameter-based functional forms to quantify the impact of disturbances on electric power grids. This modeling was based on a concept of generalized grid disturbances that harmonized reliability and resilience. Three main stages—avoid, react, and recover—were identified, and to support practicality, were intended to be independently planned. An objective of the grid disturbance model was to fairly analyze the potential impacts of novel mitigations like transactive energy systems (TES) on grid reliability and resilience. Quantitative evaluation of a common performance metric (e.g., area under the curve of percentage customers online before, during, and after an event) over time was shown as an effective tool for such analysis. Such quantification may also enable system planners to assess the impact of appropriate mitigative actions for improving grid performance against potential disturbances. This is the focus of this report, i.e., presenting an evaluation modeling framework that can be utilized to evaluate grid performance against disturbances, under a variety of existing and possible new mitigative actions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗