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DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Precipitation Bias Sensitivities in E3SM-Multi-Scale Modeling Framework From a Dilution Framework

We investigate a set of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) (E3SM-MMF) simulations that vary the dimensionality and momentum transport configurations of the embedded cloud-resolving models (CRMs), including unusually ambitious 3D configurations. Issues endemic to all MMF simulations include too much Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall and too little over the Amazon. Systematic MMF improvements include more on-equatorial rainfall across the Warm Pool. Interesting sensitivities to the CRM domain are found in the regional time-mean precipitation pattern over the tropics. The 2D E3SM-MMF produces an unrealistically rainy region over the northwestern tropical Pacific; this is reduced in computationally ambitious 3D configurations that use 1,024 embedded CRM grid columns per host cell. Trajectory analysis indicates that these regional improvements are associated with desirably fewer tropical cyclones and less extreme precipitation rates. To understand why and how the representation of precipitation improved in 3D, we propose a framework that dilution is stronger in 3D. This viewpoint is supported by multiple indirect lines of evidence, including a delayed moisture-precipitation pickup, smaller precipitation efficiency, and amplified convective mass flux profiles and more high clouds. We also demonstrate that the effects of varying embedded CRM dimensionality and momentum transport on precipitation can be identified during the first few simulated days, providing an opportunity for rapid model tuning without high computational cost. Meanwhile the results imply that other less computationally intensive ways to enhance dilution within MMF CRMs may also be strategic tuning targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated EOS, pore‐crush, strength and damage model framework for near‐field ground‐shock

Abstract An integrated Equation of State (EOS) and strength/pore‐crush/damage model framework is provided for modeling near to source (near‐field) ground‐shock response, where large deformations and pressures necessitate coupling EOS with pressure‐dependent plastic yield and damage. Nonlinear pressure‐dependence of strength up to high‐pressures is combined with a Modified Cam‐Clay‐like cap‐plasticity model in a way to allow degradation of strength from pore‐crush damage, what we call the “Yp‐Cap” model. Nonlinear hardening under compaction allows modeling the crush‐out of pores in combination with a fully saturated EOS, that is, for modeling partially saturated ground‐shock response, where air‐filled voids crush. Attention is given to algorithmic clarity and efficiency of the provided model, and the model is employed in example numerical simulations, including finite element simulations of underground explosions to exemplify its robustness and utility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermo-Fluid Modeling Framework for Supercomputer Digital Twins: Part 1, Demonstration at Exascale

A thermo-fluid modeling framework is being developed for ExaDigiT---an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. The work is being conducted in two parts, and discussion is divided into two companion papers. The work documented in this paper focuses on the development of a cooling system library in Dymola for the Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The second part, outlined in a companion paper, focuses on a templating structure called Auto-CSM for easily creating model-agnostic, physics-based thermo-fluid cooling system models for liquid-cooled supercomputers using a text-based schema. The cooling model is being developed using primarily the open-source Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models (TRANSFORM) library. The library follows the templating architecture developed within the TRANSFORM library for modeling subsystems. A full-system validation was performed to validate a very simple model that is integrated with the system controls, and the results are presented herein.

Kumar, Vineet↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of an Efficient Conjugate Heat Transfer Modeling Framework to Optimize Mixing-Limited Combustion of Ethanol in a Diesel Engine

Mixing controlled combustion of alcohol fuels has been identified as a promising technology based on their low propensity for particulate and NOx production, but the higher heats of vaporization and auto-ignition temperatures of these fuels make their direct use in diesel engine architectures a challenge. To realize the potential of alcohol-fueled combustion, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework is developed, validated, and exercised to identify designs that maximize engine thermal efficiency. To evaluate the use of thermal barrier coatings (TBCs), a simplified one-dimensional (1D) conjugate heat transfer (CHT) modeling framework is employed. The addition of the 1D CHT model only increases the computational expense by 15% relative to traditional approaches, yet offers more accurate heat transfer predictions over constant temperature boundary conditions. The validated model is then used to explore a range of injector orientations and piston bowl geometries. Using a design of experiments (DoE) approach, several designs were identified that improved fuel-air mixing, shortened the combustion duration, and increased thermal efficiency. The most promising design was fabricated and tested in a Caterpillar 1Y3700 single-cylinder oil test engine (SCOTE). Engine testing confirmed the findings from the CFD simulations and found that the co-optimized injector and piston bowl design yielded over 2-percentage point increase in thermal efficiency at the same equivalence ratio (0.96) and over 6-percentage point increase at the same engine load (10.1 bar indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP)), while satisfying design constraints for peak pressure and maximum pressure rise rate.

Magnotti, Gina M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integration of the Radiation Belt Environment Model Into the Space Weather Modeling Framework

We have integrated the Fok radiation belt environment (RBE) model into the space weather modeling framework (SWMF). RBE is coupled to the global magnetohydrodynamics component (represented by the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US, code) and the Ionosphere Electrodynamics component of the SWMF, following initial results using the Weimer empirical model for the ionospheric potential. The radiation belt (RB) model solves the convection-diffusion equation of the plasma in the energy range of 10 keV to a few MeV. In stand-alone mode RBE uses Tsyganenko's empirical models for the magnetic field, and Weimer's empirical model for the ionospheric potential. In the SWMF the BATS-R-US model provides the time dependent magnetic field by efficiently tracing the closed magnetic field-lines and passing the geometrical and field strength information to RBE at a regular cadence. The ionosphere electrodynamics component uses a two-dimensional vertical potential solver to provide new potential maps to the RBE model at regular intervals. We discuss the coupling algorithm and show some preliminary results with the coupled code. We run our newly coupled model for periods of steady solar wind conditions and compare our results to the RB model using an empirical magnetic field and potential model. We also simulate the RB for an active time period and find that there are substantial differences in the RB model results when changing either the magnetic field or the electric field, including the creation of an outer belt enhancement via rapid inward transport on the time scale of tens of minutes.

Glocer, A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A method for transporting cloud-resolving model variance in a multiscale modeling framework

Abstract. An unphysical checkerboard pattern has recently been identified in the multiscale modeling framework configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF) that is hypothesized to be associated with the inability of large-scale dynamics to transport fluctuations within the embedded cloud-resolving model (CRM) on the global grid. To address this issue, a method is presented to facilitate the large-scale transport of CRM variance in E3SM-MMF. Simulation results show that the method is effective at reducing the occurrence of unphysical checkerboard patterns on a range of timescales from days to years. This result is confirmed both subjectively through visual inspection and quantitatively with a previously developed pattern categorization technique. The CRM variance transport does not significantly alter the model climate, although it does tend to reduce temporal variance on fields associated with convection on the global grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Data-Driven Physics-Based Model Framework Implementation: Towards a Secure Cyber-Physical Operation of the Smart Grid

False data injection cyber-attack detection models on smart grid operation have been much explored recently, considering analytical physics-based and data-driven solutions. Recently, a hybrid data-driven physics-based model framework for monitoring the smart grid is developed. However, the framework has not been implemented in real-time environment yet. In this paper, the framework of the hybrid model is developed within a real-time simulation environment. OPAL-RT real-time simulator is used to enable Hardware-in-the-Loop testing of the framework. IEEE 9-bus system is considered as a testing grid for gaining insight. The process of building the framework and the challenges faced during development are presented. The performance of the framework is investigated under various false data injection attacks.

false data injection attack, machine learning, sta↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluating Precipitation Features and Rainfall Characteristics in a Multi‐Scale Modeling Framework

Cloud and precipitation systems are simulated with a multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) and compared over the Tropics and Subtropics against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Radar‐defined Precipitation Features (RPFs) product. A methodology, in close analogy to the TRMM RPFs, is developed to produce simulated precipitation features (PFs) from the output of the embedded two‐dimensional (2D) cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) within an MMF. Despite the limitations of 2D CRMs, the simulated population distribution, horizontal and vertical structure of PFs, and the geographical location and local rainfall contribution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are in good agreement with the TRMM observations. However, some model discrepancies are found and can be identified and quantified within the PF distributions. Using model biases in relative population and rainfall contributions, PFs can be characterized into four size categories: small, medium to large, very large, and extremely large. Four different major mechanisms might account for the model biases in each different category: (1) the two‐dimensionality of the CRMs, (2) a positive convection‐wind‐evaporation feedback loop, (3) an artificial dynamic constraint in a bounded CRM domain with cyclic boundaries, and (4) the limited CRM domain size. The second and fourth mechanisms tend to contribute to the excessive tropical precipitation biases commonly found in most MMFs, whereas the other mechanisms reduce rainfall contributions from small and very large PFs. MMF sensitivity experiments with various CRM domain sizes and grid spacings showed that larger domains (higher resolutions) tend to shift PF populations toward larger (smaller) sizes.

Jiun-Dar Chern↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geologic Framework Model for the Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) Experiment Testbed Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site

Geologic framework models (GFMs) provide a methodology for integrating geology into, and thus geologically informing, other modeling and simulation activities. GFMs provide a threedimensional (3-D), geology-based digital framework for developing and parametrizing meshes and evaluating model and simulation results. This report describes a 3-D GFM constructed for the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Dry Alluvium Geology test series located in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site. The geology in the Yucca Flat region is complex and diverse, which creates challenges to modeling seismic wave propagation from SPE tests. The Yucca Flat GFM helps address these challenges by providing the 3-D distribution of relevant geologic features and physical properties necessary to more effectively model seismic wave propagation. The GFM includes 7 model layers and 48 faults that cut and offset the layers. An appendix is included that provides quantitative data on physical properties for each model layer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geologic framework model for the Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) experiment testbed, Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site

Geologic framework models (GFMs) provide a methodology for integrating geology into, and thus geologically informing, other modeling and simulation activities. GFMs provide a three-dimensional (3-D), geology-based digital framework for developing and parametrizing meshes and evaluating model and simulation results. This report describes a 3-D GFM constructed for the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Dry Alluvium Geology test series located in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site. The geology in the Yucca Flat region is complex and diverse, which creates challenges to modeling seismic wave propagation from SPE tests. The Yucca Flat GFM helps address these challenges by providing the 3-D distribution of relevant geologic features and physical properties necessary to more effectively model seismic wave propagation. The GFM includes 7 model layers and 48 faults that cut and offset the layers. An appendix is included that provides quantitative data on physical properties for each model layer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the effect of mixing-driven vaporization in a homogeneous relaxation modeling framework

The homogeneous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid–gas phase transition in multiphase flows due to the occurrence of cavitation. However, in its original formulation, the HRM does not account for the presence of ambient gas species, which generally limits its applicability to the injector's internal flow where ambient gases are negligible. In this work, a mixing-driven vaporization (MDV) model was developed to extend the capability of the HRM in handling the mixing effect in the regions external to the nozzle, where vapor–liquid equilibrium for multi-species mixtures of fuel and ambient gas is considered. Herein, to assess the model performance, simulations of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed with the HRM and the MDV model under both flash-boiling and evaporating conditions. It was found that the MDV model led to a better match against x-ray measurements of fuel density in the near-nozzle region. In contrast to the HRM, the MDV model was able to reproduce the vaporization process in the mixing zone at the edge of the fuel jet, which aligns with the expected physics. This resulted in substantial differences in the prediction of other flow characteristics such as mixture temperature and pressure. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that evaporation timescales have a considerable effect on the MDV model's predictions, as shown by a parametric study in which a time factor was introduced to mimic the effect of different timescales due to different phase change mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated modeling framework with open architecture for phase field simulation of multi-component alloys

An integrated modeling framework (PanPhaseField) has been developed, which enables a direct and fast coupling between CALPHAD calculations and large-scale phase field simulations for multi-component alloys. Further, it adopts an open architecture allowing for integration of user-defined phase field models in a plug-and-play manner by taking full advantage of the user-friendly graphical interface of Pandat software. The developed modeling platform becomes an enabling tool that can be used to simulate the evolution of spatially varying microstructures of industrial complex alloys for various engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2013

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cloud Feedbacks on Greenhouse Warming in a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework with a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure

Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

Cheng, Anning↗

DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗