NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of Ionizing Radiation from Earth’s Surface to Cislunar Environment
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Christopher J. Mertens↗
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Mission Operations with an Autonomous Agent
The Remote Agent (RA) is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system which automates some of the tasks normally reserved for human mission operators and performs these tasks autonomously on-board the spacecraft. These tasks include activity generation, sequencing, spacecraft analysis, and failure recovery. The RA will be demonstrated as a flight experiment on Deep Space One (DSI), the first deep space mission of the NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP). As we moved from prototyping into actual flight code development and teamed with ground operators, we made several major extensions to the RA architecture to address the broader operational context in which PA would be used. These extensions support ground operators and the RA sharing a long-range mission profile with facilities for asynchronous ground updates; support ground operators monitoring and commanding the spacecraft at multiple levels of detail simultaneously; and enable ground operators to provide additional knowledge to the RA, such as parameter updates, model updates, and diagnostic information, without interfering with the activities of the RA or leaving the system in an inconsistent state. The resulting architecture supports incremental autonomy, in which a basic agent can be delivered early and then used in an increasingly autonomous manner over the lifetime of the mission. It also supports variable autonomy, as it enables ground operators to benefit from autonomy when L'@ey want it, but does not inhibit them from obtaining a detailed understanding and exercising tighter control when necessary. These issues are critical to the successful development and operation of autonomous spacecraft.
Pell, Barney↗
GSFC DORIS Contribution to ITRF2008
The NASA GSFC DORIS analysis center has provided weekly DORIS solutions from November 1992 to January 2009 (839 SINEX files) of station positions and Earth Orientation Parameters for inclusion in the DORIS contribution to ITRF2008. The NASA GSFC GEODYN orbit determination software was used to process the orbits and produce the normal equations. The weekly SINEX gscwd 10 submissions included DORIS data from Envisat, TOPEX!Poseidon, SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-4, SPOT-5. The orbits were mostly seven days in length (except for weeks with data gaps or maneuvers). The processing used the GRACE-derived EIGEN-GL04S1 gravity model, updated modeling for time-variable gravity, the GOT4.7 ocean tide model and tuned satellite-specific macromodels for SPOT -2, SPOT -3, SPOT -4, SPOT-5 and TOPEX/Poseidon. The University College London (UCL) radiation pressure model for Envisat improves nonconservative force modeling for this satellite, reducing the median residual empirical daily along-track accelerations from 3.75 x 10-9 m/s(exp 2) with the a priori macromodel to 0.99 x 10-9 m/s2 with the UCL model. For the SPOT and Envisat DORIS satellite orbits from 2003 to 2008, we obtain average RMS overlaps of 0.8-0.9 cm in the radial direction, 2.1-3.4 cm cross-track, and 1.7-2.3 cm along-track. The RMS orbit differences between Envisat DORIS-only and SLR & DORIS orbits are 1.1 cm radially, 6.4 cm along-track and 3.7 cm cross-track and are characterized by systematic along-track mean offsets due to the Envisat DORIS system time bias of +/- 5-1O micro s. We obtain a good agreement between the geometrically-determined geocenter parameters and geocenter parameters determined dynamically from analysis of the degree one terms of the geopotential. The intrinsic RMS weekly position repeatability with respect to the IDS-3 combination ranges from 2.5 to 3.0 cm in 1993-1994 to 1.5 cm in 2007-2008.
Le Bail, K.↗
Updated Computational Model of Cosmic Rays Near Earth
An updated computational model of the galactic-cosmic-ray (GCR) environment in the vicinity of the Earth, Earth s Moon, and Mars has been developed, and updated software has been developed to implement the updated model. This model accounts for solar modulation of the cosmic-ray contribution for each element from hydrogen through iron by computationally propagating the local interplanetary spectrum of each element through the heliosphere. The propagation is effected by solving the Fokker-Planck diffusion, convection, energy-loss boundary-value problem. The Advanced Composition Explorer NASA satellite has provided new data on GCR energy spectra. These new data were used to update the original model and greatly improve the accuracy of prediction of interplanetary GCR.
ONeill, Patrick M.↗
The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update
The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.
Noble, S.↗
Test and analysis procedures for updating math models of Space Shuttle payloads
Over the next decade or more, the Space Shuttle will continue to be the primary transportation system for delivering payloads to Earth orbit. Although a number of payloads have already been successfully carried by the Space Shuttle in the payload bay of the Orbiter vehicle, there continues to be a need for evaluation of the procedures used for verifying and updating the math models of the payloads. The verified payload math models is combined with an Orbiter math model for the coupled-loads analysis, which is required before any payload can fly. Several test procedures were employed for obtaining data for use in verifying payload math models and for carrying out the updating of the payload math models. Research was directed at the evaluation of test/update procedures for use in the verification of Space Shuttle payload math models. The following research tasks are summarized: (1) a study of free-interface test procedures; (2) a literature survey and evaluation of model update procedures; and (3) the design and construction of a laboratory payload simulator.
Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗
The 2006 Kennedy Space Center Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the Performance of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle Vehicle
The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.
Burns, Lee↗
The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle
The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.
Burns, Lee↗
A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures
The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.
Spar, J.↗
Design and Performance of Lift-Offset Rotorcraft for Short-Haul Missions
The design and performance of compound helicopters utilizing lift-offset rotors are examined, in the context of short-haul, medium-size civil and military missions. The analysis tools used are the comprehensive analysis CAMRAD II and the sizing code NDARC. Following correlation of the comprehensive analysis with existing lift-offset aircraft flight test data, the rotor performance model for the sizing code was developed, and an initial estimate was made of the rotor size and key hover and cruise flight conditions. The rotor planform and twist were optimized for those conditions, and the sizing code rotor performance model updated. Two models for estimating the blade and hub weight of lift-offset rotors are discussed. The civil and military missions are described, along with the aircraft design assumptions. The aircraft are sized for 30 passengers or 6600 lb payload, with a range of 300 nm. Civil and military aircraft designs are described for each of the rotor weight models. Disk loading and blade loading were varied to optimize the designs, based on gross weight and fuel burn. The influence of technology is shown, in terms of rotor hub drag and rotor weight.
Johnson, Wayne↗
Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models
The Integrated Main Propulsion System (MPS) Performance Reconstruction process provides the MPS post-flight data files needed for postflight reporting to the project integration management and key customers to verify flight performance. This process/model was used as the baseline for the currently ongoing Space Launch System (SLS) work. The process utilizes several methodologies, including multiple software programs, to model integrated propulsion system performance through space shuttle ascent. It is used to evaluate integrated propulsion systems, including propellant tanks, feed systems, rocket engine, and pressurization systems performance throughout ascent based on flight pressure and temperature data. The latest revision incorporates new methods based on main engine power balance model updates to model higher mixture ratio operation at lower engine power levels.
Lopez, Eduardo↗
Neutron Angular Scatter Effects in 3DHZETRN: Quasi-Elastic
The current 3DHZETRN code has a detailed three dimensional (3D) treatment of neutron transport based on a forward/isotropic assumption and has been compared to Monte Carlo (MC) simulation codes in various geometries. In most cases, it has been found that 3DHZETRN agrees with the MC codes to the extent they agree with each other. However, a recent study of neutron leakage from finite geometries revealed that further improvements to the 3DHZETRN formalism are needed. In the present report, angular scattering corrections to the neutron fluence are provided in an attempt to improve fluence estimates from a uniform sphere. It is found that further developments in the nuclear production models are required to fully evaluate the impact of transport model updates. A model for the quasi-elastic neutron production spectra is therefore developed and implemented into 3DHZETRN.
Wilson, John W.↗
Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.
Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗
Updating prediction models by dynamical relaxation - An examination of the technique
A dynamical relaxation technique for updating prediction models is analyzed with the help of the linear and nonlinear barotropic primitive equations. It is assumed that a complete four-dimensional time history of some prescribed subset of the meteorological variables is known. The rate of adaptation of the flow variables toward the true state is determined for a linearized f-model, and for mid-latitude and equatorial beta-plane models. The results of the analysis are corroborated by numerical experiments with the nonlinear shallow-water equations.
Davies, H. C.↗
Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update
Six years ago, we compared the climate sensitivity of 19 atmospheric general circulation models and found a roughly threefold variation among the models; most of this variation was attributed to differences in the models' depictions of cloud feedback. In an update of this comparison, current models showed considerably smaller differences in net cloud feedback, with most producing modest values. There are, however, substantial differences in the feedback components, indicating that the models still have physical disagreements.
Cess, R. D.↗
The 3-D world modeling with updating capability based on combinatorial geometry
A 3-D world modeling technique using range data is discribed. Range data quantify the distances from the sensor focal plane to the object surface, i.e., the 3-D coordinates of discrete points on the object surface are known. The approach proposed herein for 3-D world modeling is based on the Combinatorial Geometry (CG) method which is widely used in Monte Carlo particle transport calculations. First, each measured point on the object surface is surrounded by a small sphere with a radius determined by the range to that point. Then, the 3-D shapes of the visible surfaces are obtained by taking the (Boolean) union of all the spheres. The result is an unambiguous representation of the object's boundary surfaces. The pre-learned partial knowledge of the environment can be also represented using the CG Method with a relatively small amount of data. Using the CG type of representation, distances in desired directions to boundary surfaces of various objects are efficiently calculated. This feature is particularly useful for continuously verifying the world model against the data provided by a range finder, and for integrating range data from successive locations of the robot during motion. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated by simulations of a spherical robot in a 3-D room in the presence of moving obstacles and inadequate prelearned partial knowledge of the environment.
Goldstein, M.↗
Benefits to the Simulation Training Community of a New ANSI Standard for the Exchange of Aero Simulation Models
The American Institute of Aeronautics Astronautics (AIAA) Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee is in final preparation of a new standard for the exchange of flight dynamics models. The standard will become an ANSI standard and is under consideration for submission to ISO for acceptance by the international community. The standard has some a spects that should provide benefits to the simulation training community. Use of the new standard by the training simulation community will reduce development, maintenance and technical refresh investment on each device. Furthermore, it will significantly lower the cost of performing model updates to improve fidelity or expand the envelope of the training device. Higher flight fidelity should result in better transfer of training, a direct benefit to the pilots under instruction. Costs of adopting the standard are minimal and should be paid back within the cost of the first use for that training device. The standard achie ves these advantages by making it easier to update the aerodynamic model. It provides a standard format for the model in a custom eXtensible Markup Language (XML) grammar, the Dynamic Aerospace Vehicle Exchange Markup Language (DAVE-ML). It employs an existing XML grammar, MathML, to describe the aerodynamic model in an input data file, eliminating the requirement for actual software compilation. The major components of the aero model become simply an input data file, and updates are simply new XML input files. It includes naming and axis system conventions to further simplify the exchange of information.
Hildreth, Bruce L.↗
Maneuver Performance Assessment of the Cassini Spacecraft Through Execution-Error Modeling and Analysis
The Cassini spacecraft has executed nearly 300 maneuvers since 1997, providing ample data for execution-error model updates. With maneuvers through 2017, opportunities remain to improve on the models and remove biases identified in maneuver executions. This manuscript focuses on how execution-error models can be used to judge maneuver performance, while providing a means for detecting performance degradation. Additionally, this paper describes Cassini's execution-error model updates in August 2012. An assessment of Cassini's maneuver performance through OTM-368 on January 5, 2014 is also presented.
Wagner, Sean↗