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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studies of the influence of heat pipe model and coupling strategy in heat pipe microreactor simulations using Sockeye

This work demonstrates various modeling approaches for thermally coupling heat pipes to a graphite monolithic block in a microreactor context, accounting for the presence of a gap. We show that heat pipe model selection has a significant impact on the transient behavior of a three-dimensional coupled microreactor assembly problem by comparing results obtained using different heat pipe models from the heat pipe code Sockeye. Additionally, we show that the choice of coupling strategy has significant consequences for both accuracy and performance. Furthermore, we found that our heat flux transfer strategy exhibited greater accuracy than our temperature transfer strategy, even when comparing a loose coupling of the heat flux transfer strategy to a tight coupling of the temperature transfer strategy. Although this research uses only theoretical test problems, it provides important insights in modeling thermal fluids phenomena in heat pipe microreactors.

Direwolf↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Temperature, Prey Concentration and Salmonid Density Influence Daily Growth of Wild Juvenile Salmonids in Tributaries of the Upper Salmon River, Idaho ( USA )

ABSTRACT Theory, experiments and field studies indicate that the somatic growth rate of freshwater consumers is shaped by the individual, additive and multiplicative effects of multiple factors, including consumer size and condition, temperature, prey resources and biotic interactions. While our understanding of how these factors affect wild populations of freshwater consumers is improving, the topic remains poorly studied, especially with respect to mobile species. Here, we report on an 8‐year, seven‐stream ( n = 49 stream‐year combinations) observational study examining the individual and interactive effects of invertebrate prey concentration (F, mg/m 3 ), mean daily water temperature (T, °C) and juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) density (D, fish/100 m 2 ) on summer daily growth rates (%/d) of mobile, anadromous, juvenile Chinook salmon (age‐0+, n = 382) and sub‐yearling (age‐0+, n = 61) and yearling (age‐1+) steelhead trout ( O. mykiss , n = 70) rearing in cold (mean daily summer: 12.1°C, range: 4.2°C–16.7°C) mountain tributaries of the Salmon River basin in central Idaho (USA). AIC c model selection indicated that daily juvenile salmonid growth positively correlated with water temperature, prey biomass concentration, local juvenile Chinook density and the interaction between water temperature and food but with species and age‐specific differences. Water temperature was a covariate in all top‐ranked models, with daily growth (%/day) rate increasing (0.05%–0.23%/d) linearly with mean daily summer water temperature. In addition to a direct positive relationship with daily growth rate, there was evidence that prey concentration positively interacted with water temperature to accelerate daily growth (F × T). The positive relationship between juvenile salmonid daily growth rate and juvenile Chinook density is difficult to explain and could result from confounding factors. The individual success observed in these streams may contribute to population‐level benefits for the focal consumers, as prey‐rich, warm summers may result in larger individuals with higher energy reserves at the end of the summer/autumn growing season, contributing to improved overwinter survival. Our results, taken in combination with evidence from models, experiments and observational studies, have climate change implications. Current and predicted increases in water temperature will necessitate higher rates of prey consumption by aquatic ectothermic consumers to offset accelerated metabolic demands. Thus, to improve the resilience of mobile freshwater consumers in a warming climate, we suggest that natural resource managers not only consider physical and chemical habitat conditions but also biotic conditions, including the spatiotemporal quantity and quality of prey resources.

Kiffney, Peter. M. [Fish Ecology, Northwest Fisher↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning of networked spreading models from noisy and incomplete data

Recent years have seen a lot of progress in algorithms for learning parameters of spreading dynamics from both full and partial data. Some of the remaining challenges include model selection under the scenarios of unknown network structure, noisy data, missing observations in time, as well as an efficient incorporation of prior information to minimize the number of samples required for an accurate learning. Here, in this work, we introduce a universal learning method based on a scalable dynamic message-passing technique that addresses these challenges often encountered in real data. The algorithm leverages available prior knowledge on the model and on the data, and reconstructs both network structure and parameters of a spreading model. We show that a linear computational complexity of the method with the key model parameters makes the algorithm scalable to large network instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaling open-weight large language models for hydropower regulatory information extraction: A systematic analysis

Information extraction from regulatory and technical documents using large language models (LLMs) involves practical trade-offs between extraction quality and computational cost. We evaluate eight open-weight LLMs spanning 0.6B–70B parameters on hydropower licensing documents and report deployment-oriented evidence under a unified extraction schema and evaluation protocol. Across the model set, we observe clear scale-dependent trends in both baseline extraction quality and the effectiveness of reflective reasoning (self-checking) under our fixed-prompt, no-augmentation setting. Mid-scale models often provide a favorable balance of accuracy and efficiency, whereas the smallest models show limited or inconsistent gains from the reasoning variants tested. Larger models achieve the highest overall F1 scores but incur substantially greater compute and infrastructure requirements. We further find that reliability failure modes can distort conventional metrics in this domain: in particular, high recall can coincide with systematic extraction errors when models fabricate values for fields that are absent from the source text, underscoring the importance of conservative null handling and evidence-grounded evaluation. Overall, our study provides a reproducible resource–performance comparison for open-weight LLM-based extraction in hydropower regulatory documentation and offers practical guidance for model selection under different deployment constraints.

Evaluation protocol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chapter 4 - Recent Advances in Identification of Differential Equations from Noisy Data: IDENT Review

Differential equations and numerical methods are extensively used to model various real-world phenomena in science and engineering. With modern developments, we aim to find the underlying differential equation from a single observation of time-dependent data. If we assume that the differential equation is a linear combination of various linear and nonlinear differential terms, then the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system. The goal then reduces to finding the optimal coefficient vector that best represents the time derivative of the given data. We review some recent works on the identification of differential equations. We find some common themes for the improved accuracy: (i) The formulation of linear system with proper denoising is important, (ii) how to utilize sparsity and model selection to find the correct coefficient support needs careful attention, and (iii) there are ways to improve the coefficient recovery. We present an overview and analysis of recent developments on the topic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and Implementation of a New AI-Based Tool to Support Fast Reactor Software Model Generation and Validation

This report summarizes FY26 work to develop Maggie, an artificial intelligence-based assistant designed to support software model generation and validation activities for fast reactor analysis codes. The project established a modular, code-agnostic software architecture that separates reusable agent capabilities from code-specific knowledge and tools, with initial implementation focused on the FRP-supported fast reactor safety analysis code SAS4A/SASSYS1 (SAS). A curated SAS-specific knowledge base was assembled from the code manual, training materials, historical analysis reports, and representative input files, and was integrated through retrieval-augmented generation to ground Maggie’s responses in authoritative sources. Maggie was deployed on the internal Argonne network, where it demonstrated practical user-facing capability as a chatbot for answering natural language questions about SAS and retrieving relevant technical information. Demonstration cases also showed that Maggie can generate useful snippets of SAS input for selected modeling tasks, while highlighting current limitations in reliability and consistency for more complex input generation tasks. Overall, the FY26 effort established the technical foundation for an AI-assisted capability intended to improve the efficiency, consistency, and accessibility of fast reactor software model development at Argonne and, with further improvements, to support eventual use by the broader fast reactor community, including industry users of FRP-supported analysis tools.

Thomas, Rachel [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inverse design of hypoeutectoid pearlite steel microstructures using a deep learning and genetic algorithm optimization framework

Goal-oriented microstructure design in metallic materials is a challenging task due to complex structure-property relationships. Traditional experimental and computational approaches are time-intensive and economically inefficient, limiting their applicability for large-scale design space exploration. Here, in this work, we propose an end-to-end framework that integrates deep learning models with genetic optimization to design microstructures with targeted mechanical properties. Deep learning models enable accurate forward design, while their integration with genetic optimization enables efficient inverse design within a few hours, compared to days or weeks using conventional finite element simulations. The framework combines experimental characterization and finite element modeling to analyze the influence of microstructural features on the mechanical behavior of hypoeutectoid steels. Data from both experiments and simulations are used to train the deep learning models. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we apply the framework to 0.63% carbon steel with proeutectoid ferrite and pearlite phases, commonly used in industrial applications. In this study, 2D microstructures were used for modeling, selected primarily for computational efficiency and to establish proof of concept. The framework successfully optimizes microstructures for targeted yield strength, ultimate strength, and stress concentration factors while significantly reducing computational time. Beyond hypoeutectoid steels, this scalable framework can be extended to other material systems and integrated with additive manufacturing, offering an efficient approach for accelerating microstructure design for specific engineering applications.

ConvLSTM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward Rapid Actinium-225 Purification via Membrane Adsorbers with Covalently Tethered Diglycolamide Ligands

Extractive diglycolamide (DGA) resins are used in several state-of-the-art techniques for purifying 225 Ac, a promising radiometal for targeted alpha therapy. Unfortunately, separation processes that rely on resins are often limited to slow flow rates, high elution volumes, and long processing times. Membrane adsorbers functionalized with DGA ligands are an alternative separation material that may overcome these challenges. This work presents (1) the synthesis of an aminated tetrahexyldiglycolamide ligand, (2) the covalent tethering of the ligand to electrospun poly(vinylbenzyl chloride) fiber mats, and (3) the adsorption and desorption of La(III) and 225 Ac. Chemical and physical characterization supports the covalent tethering of the ligand to the fiber mat, as well as the preservation of the fiber surface area and porosity after functionalization. Equilibrium adsorption experiments were performed with stable La(III) and radioactive 225 Ac. Trends in affinity are consistent between commercial resins and the synthesized membrane adsorbers; however, the Langmuir constants and the maximum binding capacity of the membrane adsorbers were generally lower than the resins. Despite these differences, the modeled selectivity for an equimolar solution of La(III)/ 225 Ac in 10 M nitric acid is 57. Furthermore, 225 Ac is rapidly desorbed from the fibers in 10 M nitric acid (<20 min). The La(III)/ 225 Ac selectivity and rapid 225 Ac desorption indicate this class of materials is promising for rapid radioanalytical separations.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging unlabeled SEM datasets with self-supervised learning for enhanced particle segmentation

Scanning Electron Microscopes (SEMs) are widely used in experimental science laboratories, often requiring cumbersome and repetitive user analysis. Automating SEM image analysis processes is highly desirable to address this challenge. In particle sample analysis, Machine Learning (ML) has emerged as the most effective approach for particle segmentation. However, the time-intensive process of manually annotating thousands of SEM images limits the applicability of supervised learning approaches. Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) offers a promising alternative by enabling knowledge extraction from raw, unlabeled data. This study presents a framework for evaluating SSL techniques in SEM image analysis, focusing on novel methods leveraging the ConvNeXtV2 architecture for particle detection. A dataset comprising 25,000 SEM images is curated to benchmark these proposed SSL methods. The results demonstrate that ConvNeXtV2 models, with varying parameter counts, consistently outperform other techniques in particle detection across different length scales, achieving up to a 34% reduction in relative error compared to established SSL methods. Furthermore, an ablation study explores the relationship between dataset size and SSL performance, providing actionable insights for practitioners regarding model selection and resource efficiency. This research advances the integration of SSL into autonomous analysis pipelines and supports its application in accelerating materials science discovery.

Rettenberger, Luca↗
DOE OSTI2026

Power and particle exhaust in the ST-E1 fusion power plant

Power exhaust challenges and potential solutions for a 5 m major radius, low-aspect ratio burning tokamak have been explored. 1D edge plasma models have been used to screen for access to detachment using short and long outer divertor legs in double and single null configurations, using Ar as the primary impurity and assuming tungsten plasma-facing components (PFCs). These show that detachment access can be accessed for all but the most conservative assumptions on scrape-off layer (SOL) width and power, but that trade-offs will be required between magnet engineering and the size of the acceptable window of as-yet uncertain plasma parameters. SOLPS-ITER was used to further model selected plasma scenarios, confirming that Ar seeding can be used to achieve dissipative divertor scenarios with peak deposited heat fluxes below 15 MWm -2 . Initial scoping of first wall loads and positioning of limiters has been carried out, showing the feasibility of protecting the breeding blanket wall during steady state without impeding tritium breeding. Initial PFC technology selection is also presented, identifying this as a critical area where further work is needed to find an attractive solution for helium-cooled PFCs that can handle high heat fluxes without excessive power requirements. Key questions and trade-offs for concept development have been identified, including: how to achieve high radiation for reduction of SOL power without core performance degradation; whether power exhaust can be well-controlled in a double null plasma; mechanical design and materials challenges of high-heat flux PFCs; and control of material erosion, redeposition and tritium retention.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of deep learning methods for beam size control during user operation at the Advanced Light Source

Past research at the Advanced Light Source (ALS) provided a proof-of-principle demonstration that deep learning methods could be effectively employed to compensate for the significant perturbations to the transverse electron beam size induced by user-controlled adjustments of the insertion devices. However, incorporating these methods into the ALS’ daily operations has faced notable challenges. The complexity of the system’s operational requirements and the significant upkeep demands has restricted their sustained application during user operation. Here, we introduce the development of a more robust neural network (NN)-based algorithm that utilizes a novel online fine-tuning approach and its systematic integration into the day-to-day machine operations. Our analysis emphasizes the process of NN model selection, demonstrates the superior performance of the NN-based method over traditional feedback methods, and examines the effectiveness and resilience of the new algorithm during user-operation scenarios. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Physics-Aligned Multi-Domain Machine Learning Framework for Time-Localised Diagnosis of Power Electronics Faults

This paper presents a physics-aligned framework for fault diagnosis in multi-phase power-electronic systems using cycle-synchronous windowing and multi-domain features derived from Fourier, wavelet, and Hilbert–Huang representations. While both logistic regression and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models achieve perfect performance under standard evaluation, blind unseen testing reveals a critical failure in a baseline MLP. This is shown to arise from model selection based on validation accuracy. Using validation-loss-based selection restores correct unseen performance and improves confidence. Feature ablation shows that Fourier and wavelet features dominate, while computational analysis indicates that feature extraction, particularly HHT, governs runtime.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning Applied to PMU Data for the Western US Power System

Smart grid technology enhances our comprehension and reliability of the power grid, leveraging Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data—time-synchronized, high-frequency measurements gathered across the US power grid. This paper employs machine learning techniques to effectively analyze the vast PMU data in Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS) for power grid event detection and classification. Analyzing several months of real-world PMU data, the paper focuses on machine learning for fast, precise event detection and classification, corroborated by utility event logs. Practical challenges like feature extraction, dimensionality reduction, and model selection are addressed. A novel feature yielding improved results is discovered, and a supplementary algorithm for detecting small power grid faults is developed. The final algorithm is validated using a month-long real PMU data set, demonstrating its capability in accurately identifying power grid events in near real-time.

machine learning, event detection, PMU↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metal additive manufacturing simulation across length, time, and computing scales

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) offers a unique opportunity for production of advanced materials and complex geometries. However, variability in microstructure and properties challenges conventional approaches to design, process optimization, qualification, and materials selection. Modeling and simulation can improve understanding of AM processing and materials, but also poses major challenges for existing computational methods. Simultaneously, modern scientific computing hardware has become increasingly complex, most notably with the adoption of hybrid architectures such as Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). If appropriately utilized, emerging computational capabilities provide an opportunity to reveal new insight into AM processing and the resulting material structure and properties. In this review we describe the computational AM landscape, identify critical gaps, and highlight opportunities to impact the development and application of AM. First, the requirements and challenges of representative AM problem statements will be defined. Here, these problems range from scientific studies to industrial applications and are designed to capture the breadth of challenges facing the AM community. Next, the current state of AM modeling and simulation is evaluated, broken down by enabling hardware and software, process simulation, microstructure simulation, and property simulation. Each section describes the diversity of simulation approaches and associated trade-offs in physical fidelity and computational expense. Each area is then assessed based on their suitability and readiness for current and developing computational architectures. Lastly, the greatest opportunities for future research and application are highlighted, including gaps in modeling capabilities, opportunities for near-term application, and key scientific challenges.

additive manufacturing↗