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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Well–based monitoring of CO 2 geological sequestration operations in saline aquifers: Critical insights into key questions

Geological carbon sequestration in saline aquifers is one of the most promising strategies to help mitigate emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Significant challenges in ensuring the security of the sequestration process rest in the evolution and expansion of the CO 2 plume in the subsurface. The ability to track the movement of the injected CO 2 poses another challenge. Critical questions related to the integrity of the sequestration operations in saline aquifers relate to plume characteristics that can we monitor using well-based variables. We addressed this and related questions using an integrated modeling framework through a numerical investigation of carbon sequestration in saline aquifers during long-term and post-injection periods. This modeling paradigm incorporates the effect of structural, geological, and petrophysical characteristics. That way, we can account for critical physicochemical processes, rock-fluid interactions, and lithology dependencies. The well fluid variables investigated include fluid composition, pH, fluid density, and ion activity. We learned that fluid property analytics and diagnostics can be powerful tools to estimate the movement of CO 2 and its storage in different trapping mechanisms. These analytics can help optimize operational aspects and simplify reservoir-scale models while still reflecting the complex nature of the CO 2 interactions underground and offering insights into plume evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mexico and U.S. Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social vulnerability and power loss mitigation: A case study of Puerto Rico

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events urges us to reevaluate the resiliency and vulnerability aspects of our most critical infrastructures — such as power grids — as their failures result in both economic loss and severe human hardship. Seen through the lens of alleviating human suffering, it is crucial to be able to identify critical system components of the infrastructure for targeted hardening given resource constraints. This effort is of particular importance in islanded areas such as Puerto Rico where hurricanes are frequent and resources are limited, and where the spatially diverse effects of power loss on human suffering are all the more severe. Recent studies on evaluating infrastructure networks during extreme weather events have taken a simulation based approach that incorporates a variety of component models, such as weather realizations, topological network models, fragility models, and power flow models to estimate expected loss of service. Here, in this work, we expand such a Component Based Event Simulation (CBES) methodology proposed in the literature and integrate it with a social vulnerability modeling component. This paradigm-advancing approach of synthesizing the cutting edge capability of power network modeling and the social impacts of the power transmission network failure is demonstrated for the island of Puerto Rico. Our work exemplifies the efficacy of this integrated modeling framework in developing a decision metric for targeted transmission line hardening.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗
DOE OSTI2025

AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystem function and soil quality. Salinity influences carbon cycling through direct effects on microbial activity and indirect alterations to soil physicochemical properties including cation exchange, pH, and soil organic carbon availability. Current models inadequately represent these complexities, relying on linear reduction functions that overlook specific physicochemical changes induced by salinity. To address this gap, we propose an integrated model framework, AquaMEND, that combines microbial-explicit carbon decomposition and geochemical models. This model allows cation exchange and surface complexation processes to capture solute chemistry and nutrient availability in soils upon saltwater intrusion. Using response functions that capture salinity impacts on both salt-sensitive and salt-resistant microbial processes, AquaMEND simulates how the abiotic and biotic mechanisms work individually and collectively to regulate organic and inorganic pools and fluxes. Here, the parallel structure of aqueous and non-aqueous phases, together with microbial functions, result in a versatile model for solving dynamic coupling of organics, minerals and microbes under various environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microwave-Assisted Plastic Upcycling: Dynamic Data Reconciliation, Parameter Estimation, and Kinetic Modeling

Microwave (MW)-assisted catalytic pyrolysis offers a promising pathway for efficient plastic upcycling. This work develops an integrated modeling framework combining dynamic data reconciliation, a temperature-dependent rate model, and a yield model to represent the time-varying production rate of components in MW-assisted LDPE pyrolysis conducted in a batch reactor. An Arrhenius-type rate model with a temperature-dependent reaction order is developed. A biexponential correlation is proposed for the yield of gaseous products that enables to capture the evolving product formation behavior during conversion. In the yield correlation, one term is used to represent the initial increase in yield, reflecting the rapid formation of intermediate or primary products at the early stages of the reaction when a larger fraction of the reactant remains available. As conversion progresses, the influence of this term gradually diminishes. The other term accounts for the subsequent decrease in the predicted yield, representing secondary reactions such as further cracking or coke formation that reduce the concentration of certain products at higher conversion. The model is found to accurately represent reconciled experimental flow rate profiles from an in-house MW-assisted catalytic batch reactor for major products, including ethylene, ethane, 1-butene, and benzene, across 250−350 °C. Ethylene remains the dominant product but decreases from about 41.95% at 250 °C to 30.14% at 350 °C, while heavier products increase significantly, with 1-butene rising to nearly 8.37% and benzene reaching 2.17% at intermediate temperatures. The model shows that the ethylene production rate can be maximized at around 270 °C. The models developed in this work can be utilized for process optimization, reactor design and scale-up of microwave-assisted plastic conversion technologies, and economic analysis.

Damahe, Harish [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Global and Regional Dust Storms on the Martian Hot O Corona and Photochemical Loss

Here, we examine for the first time the effects of both global and regional dust storms on the formation of the Martian hot O corona and associated photochemical loss of O. Our study is conducted by utilizing our integrated model framework, which couples our Martian hot O corona model with a multifluid magnetohydrodynamic model for Mars for the dusty and clear atmospheric condition cases. We present our results with the most up-to-date cross sections for the O( 3 P )-CO 2 collisions. The main effect of dust storms on the ionosphere is the upward shift of the ionosphere on the dayside, which results in an increase in production of hot O at all altitudes above the ionospheric peak. However, the dust-induced inflation of the neutral upper atmosphere results in an enhancement in collisional loss of hot O and thus effectively suppresses the hot O density, reducing the global photochemical loss rate by ~28% for the global dust storm scenario. The relative density structure of the hot O corona does not show any significant changes, while its magnitude decreases at all altitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating energetic ions and enhanced fusion rates from ion-cyclotron resonance heating with a full-wave/Fokker–Planck model

Reproducing fast-ion enhanced fusion rates from ion-cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) in tokamaks requires the self-consistent coupling of a full-wave solver and a Fokker–Planck solver, which evolves multiple simultaneously resonant ion species. We introduce a new self-consistent model that iterates the TORIC full-wave solver with the CQL3D Fokker–Planck solver using the integrated plasma simulator (IPS). This model evolves the bounce-averaged ion distribution functions in both parallel and perpendicular velocity-space with a quasilinear radio frequency (RF) diffusion operator valid in the ion finite Larmor radius (FLR) limit and the RF electric fields with the resultant non-Maxwellian FLR dielectric tensor. This produces non-Maxwellian ICRH simulations that are fully self-consistent, fast, and interoperable with integrated modeling frameworks, such as TRANSP/GACODE/IPS-FASTRAN. We demonstrate our model's capabilities by validating it against experimental data in Alcator C-Mod. We then perform the first RF heating simulations of SPARC using self-consistent non-Maxwellian ion distributions to investigate the potential to enhance fusion rates using ion cyclotron resonance heating generated fast ions.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linear simulation of magnetohydrodynamic plasma response to three-dimensional magnetic perturbations in high-β P plasmas

In this work, we report the numerical analyses of linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) plasma response to applied three-dimensional magnetic perturbations (MPs) in a joint DIII-D/EAST collaboration on high-β P (poloidal beta) plasmas, utilizing the extended-MHD code M3D-C1, with the purpose of realizing a better understanding of the existing experiment in which the n=3 MPs were applied to such high-β P plasmas attempting to control large amplitude type-I ELMs. Such high-β P plasmas obtained at the DIII-D tokamak feature an upper-biased double null configuration, a high edge safety factor q 95 ~6.4, and a stable internal transport barrier (ITB) leading to relatively high core pressures. Single-fluid simulations show that the plasma response to n=3 MPs, including both non-resonant/kinking and resonant components, is significantly weaker than that to n=1 or 2 MPs. To survey the impact of q 95 on plasma response to applied MPs, the SEGWAY (Self-consistent Equilibrium Generating Workflow for AnalYsis) module, developed in the OMFIT integrated modelling framework, is employed to generate a series of equilibria with a wide range of q 95 while other key parameters including the normalized beta, electron density at pedestal top, and plasma shape are kept fixed. Compared to the vacuum response, single-fluid M3D-C1 simulations predict a much more significant decrease of resonant plasma response to the applied n=3 MPs at the maximum penetration radii as q 95 increases. In contrast to single-fluid simulation results showing resonant penetration occurs only near the pedestal top where the E×B toroidal rotation frequency is zero, two-fluid simulations show two comparable resonant penetrations locating near the pedestal top and the ITB foot, where the perpendicular electron rotation frequency is zero. Such resonant field penetration near the ITB foot may be responsible for the observed formation of a staircase structure in both electron density and temperature profiles and thereby a considerable deterioration of global plasma performance when MPs are applied in high-β P plasmas. Motivated by this numerical work, we provide some ideas for the future research, with the purpose of realizing effective ELM control in such high-β P plasmas on the DIII-D and EAST devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-time capable modeling of ICRF heating on NSTX and WEST via machine learning approaches

Abstract A real-time capable core Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating model on NSTX and WEST is developed. The model is based on two nonlinear regression algorithms, the random forest ensemble of decision trees and the multilayer perceptron neural network. The algorithms are trained on TORIC ICRF spectrum solver simulations of the expected flat-top operation scenarios in NSTX and WEST assuming Maxwellian plasmas. The surrogate models are shown to successfully capture the multi-species core ICRF power absorption predicted by the original model for the high harmonic fast wave and the ion cyclotron minority heating schemes while reducing the computational time by six orders of magnitude. Although these models can be expanded, the achieved regression scoring, computational efficiency and increased model robustness suggest these strategies can be implemented into integrated modeling frameworks for real-time control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning-assisted modeling for χ (2) nonlinear optics

Modeling second-order (χ(2)) nonlinear optical processes remains computationally expensive due to the need to resolve fast field oscillations and simulate wave propagation using methods such as the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). This can become a bottleneck in real-time applications, such as high-repetition-rate laser systems requiring rapid feedback and control. We present a long short-term memory-based surrogate model trained on SSFM simulations generated from a start-to-end model of the photocathode drive laser at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory’s Linac Coherent Light Source II. The model achieves over 250× speedup while maintaining high fidelity, enabling future real-time optimization and laying the foundation for data-integrated modeling frameworks and digital twins of laser systems.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗