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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of a preliminary regional Earth model through comparison of synthetic and observed waveform data

In this report, we document the process related to developing a regional geologic model of a 605 x 1334 km area centered around Utah and encompassing surrounding states. This model is developed to test the effect that composition of a model has on the generation of synthetic data with the intent of using this information to improve upon full waveform moment tensor inversions. We compare observed data from three seismic events and five stations to the synthetic data generated by a preliminary model derived from a geologic framework model (GFM) developed by the USGS. The synthetic data and observed data comparisons indicate that our preliminary model performs well at smaller offset distances in the northern and central sections of the model. However, the southern stations consistently display synthetic data P- and S-wave arrival times that do not match the observed data arrival times, indicating that the velocity structure of the southern part of the model especially is inaccurate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

Multiple capacity expansion models (CEMs) for the U.S. power system represent the balance of options among generation, transmission, and storage assets that can satisfy electric loads, operating and planning reserves, and policy requirements. These models are typically set up to find the least-cost portfolio of assets that meet specified requirements, and model decisions can include both investments in new, and retirement of existing, resources. The scenarios explored by CEMs can help inform strategies for meeting future electricity and energy needs under a range of future conditions. However, projections can differ between models, sometimes dramatically, for a seemingly similar scenario. Differences in model coverage, structure, and input assumptions contribute to the range of model outcomes. Understanding what drives the biggest differences in model outputs improves model insights and provides context for interpreting results. This summary presents analysis that was performed through a forum of analysts who own, update, and apply CEMs, as well as nuclear experts from national laboratories, industry, and the research community. The following sections describe methods, results, and findings from an original, innovative inter-model comparison that provides insights into what drives the greatest differences in nuclear retirement and deployment projections across models and a range of technology, market, and policy conditions.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Response of Coastal Wetlands to Environmental Stresses: Algorithm Comparison of Numerical Models

Coastal wetlands are a critical component of the earth system that strongly influence the global water and biogeochemical cycles. They are also likely important sentinel of climate change. Because eco-geomorphological processes have long been recognized to be important for coastal wetland survival under accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), many eco-geomorphology models have been developed to assess the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands. Although these models differ substantially in complexity and numerical methods, few studies have investigated the algorithm-level uncertainties in these models. In this study, we developed a multiple-algorithm model framework of coastal wetlands that represents coastal hydrodynamics (such as water level, significant wave height and bottom shear stress) and four eco-geomorphological processes: mineral accretion, organic matter accretion, storm surge erosion and landward migration. We validated the model at three representative coastal wetland sites (Venice Lagoon, Plum Island Estuary and Hunter Estuary) for hydrodynamics, mineral accretion and organic matter accretion. Through model-data comparison, we showed that the model can well capture the dynamics of hydrodynamical and eco-geomorphological conditions in the study sites. Importantly, analysis of the multiple-algorithm simulations suggests that differences in the process representation of mineral and organic matter accretion may contribute to the recent contradicting predictions of coastal wetland evolution under accelerated SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗
DOE OSTI2022

Summarizing experimental sensitivities of collider experiments to dark matter models and comparison to other experiments

Comparisons of the coverage of current and proposed dark matter searches can help us to understand the context in which a discovery of particle dark matter would be made. In some scenarios, a discovery could be reinforced by information from multiple, complementary types of experiments; in others, only one experiment would see a signal, giving only a partial, more ambiguous picture; in still others, no experiment would be sensitive and new approaches would be needed. In this whitepaper, we present an update to a similar study performed for the European Strategy Briefing Book performed within the dark matter at the Energy Frontier (EF10) Snowmass Topical Group We take as a starting point a set of projections for future collider facilities and a method of graphical comparisons routinely performed for LHC DM searches using simplified models recommended by the LHC Dark Matter Working Group and also used for the BSM and dark matter chapters of the European Strategy Briefing Book. These comparisons can also serve as launching point for cross-frontier discussions about dark matter complementarity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fundamental study of gas species transport in the oxygen electrode of solid oxide fuel and electrolysis cells

A fundamental analysis of multicomponent gas transport models was performed in application to the oxygen electrodes of solid oxide cells. It is common practice to neglect the effect of pressure gradients within oxygen electrodes, even though a net molar flux at the electrolyte surface implies that a pressure gradient must exist. The influence of both Darcy velocity and Knudsen flux are considered in the context of ordinary (Fickian) diffusion, the dusty gas model, and the binary friction model. Comparisons between the models and different sets of assumptions are made via parametric studies on operating load, oxygen partial pressure, microstructural properties, and electrode thickness. Results show that the pressure gradient will have a significant impact on the oxygen concentration distribution and therefore the concentration overpotential. In electrolysis mode, pressure increases up to 1 atm are predicted, indicating that pressure at the electrode/electrolyte interface could contribute to electrode delamination. Additionally, it is found that Darcy's law is insufficient for calculating the pressure distribution without accounting for the flux due to Knudsen diffusion. Additionally, it is found that for the range of properties typical of oxygen electrodes, there is a negligibly small difference between the dusty gas model and binary friction model from a practical standpoint.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding diffraction and spectroscopy data with machine learning: A tutorial

This Tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on how to apply supervised machine-learning techniques to analyze diffraction and spectroscopy data. This Tutorial details four models—a reconstruction-focused model, a regression-focused model, a hybrid reconstruction/regression model, and a multimodal model—that use x-ray diffraction profiles and vibrational density of states spectra to predict various microstructural descriptors. In this Tutorial, we cover data pre-processing steps, constructions of the models via dimensionality reduction and regression, training, and analysis of these models. Comparisons of the model’s performance are provided, highlighting the strength and weakness of the various approaches utilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comprehensive Loss Model and Comparison of AC and DC Boost Converters

DC microgrids have become a prevalent topic in research in part due to the expected superior efficiency of DC/DC converters compared to their AC/DC counterparts. Although numerous side-by-side analyses have quantified the efficiency benefits of DC power distribution, these studies all modeled converter loss based on product data that varied in component quality and operating voltage. To establish a fair efficiency comparison, this work derives a formulaic loss model of a DC/DC and an AC/DC PFC boost converter. These converters are modeled with identical components and an equivalent input and output voltage. Simulated designs with real components show AC/DC boost converters between 100 W to 500 W having up to 2.5 times more loss than DC/DC boost converters. Although boost converters represent a fraction of electronics in buildings, these loss models can eventually work toward establishing a comprehensive model-based full-building analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development and formulation of physics based metallic fuel models and comparison to integral irradiation data

Metallic fuel has an important historical significance in the development of nuclear reactors and continues to be relevant to the progression of advanced test and power reactors. A number of models, ranging from empirical to mechanistic, have been developed and implemented in various fuel performance codes to describe U-Zr and U-Pu-Zr fuel and typical fast reactor cladding materials. One challenge of using these models to simulate fuel performance is the inevitable tangling of coupled phenomena that can cloud proper implementation, calibration, and eventual utilization of new models. Here in an effort to provide a baseline capability that will facilitate the use of advanced models, new capabilities have been implemented into the fuel performance code BISON specific to metallic fuel simulations, ranging from materials properties, fission gas release and swelling calculations, coolant channel models, and cladding correlations. These models have been applied to the X441/X441A EBR-II experimental assembly data, a set of irradiated metallic UPuZr fuel rods of varying pin designs. The models implemented in BISON are able to capture the general trend of the expected response of the fuel and cladding to irradiation in EBR-II, especially when considering the spread in experimental measurements and the uncertainties inherited from the historical material models. Ultimately, the models outlined here provide the baseline capabilities on which new models can build upon in order to improve the prediction of metallic fuel performance simulations in off-normal designs or operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale fission product release model with comparison to AGR data

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is central to several advanced, high-temperature reactor designs. Each particle consists of a fuel kernel encapsulated by three layers of carbon and ceramics that prevent the release of fission products and ensure physical integrity. Despite outstanding retention properties, fission product release has been observed from intact particles. To better understand and quantify fission product release from TRISO particles, a multiscale, mechanistic model of fission product transport is being developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Previous work focused on silver (Ag) transport and improved Ag release predictions. The work described in this report builds on this experience to better understand cesium (Cs) transport in silicon carbide (SiC), the main barrier to the release of fission products. Atomistic simulations provide bulk and grain boundary (GB) Cs diffusivities in SiC, which are used by phase field simulations in the mesoscale code Marmot to determine the temperature, microstructure, and irradiation-dependent Cs diffusivity at the mesoscale in SiC. This approach attributes the different temperature regimes experimentally observed for Cs diffusivities in SiC to a transition from bulk-dominated diffusivity at high temperatures to a GB-dominated regime at low temperatures, providing new insight. The multiscale, mechanistic effective diffusivity is then implemented in the fuel performance code BISON and further validated by comparing Cs release predictions from Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 and AGR-2 post-irradiation measurements. The new model improves BISON’s predictability. This document also reports improvements made on Ag transport modeling by accounting for different GB types having different diffusivities. Moreover, this report details preliminary efforts to model palladium (Pd) attack of the SiC at the mesoscale using a phase field approach. Pd attack and its impact on accelerated Ag transport remains a misunderstood phenomenon, and we use the model to demonstrate that the formation of lamellae that has been observed in experiments can be explained by the reaction of Pd with SiC to form alternating layers of graphite and Pd 2 Si. This effort aims to improve our understanding of the reaction and eventually provide a model for BISON to account for Pd penetration and its effects on fission product release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Uptake Kinetics of 1,4-Bis(phenylethynyl)benzene Rubberized O-Rings: Measurements, Modeling, and Comparison with Additional Forms of Organic Getters

A class of molecules called “hydrogen getters” can react with, or scavenge, H 2 in applications where the hydrogen presence and/or buildup are not desirable. One such “getter”, 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene or DEB, can be incorporated into a silicone matrix in the form of an O-ring for added flexibility, environmental resiliency, and convenient use as a gasket in sealed applications. However, the performance and kinetics of this DEB-loaded rubberized O-ring have not yet been characterized. Here in this work, the hydrogen uptake kinetics of the rubberized DEB O-ring were extracted by the isoconversional analysis from isothermal isobaric data under conditions of 13,332 Pa H 2 and 305–325 K. The isoconversional and cylindrical diffusion approximations were then used to predict and model the hydrogen uptake of rubberized DEB O-rings under any arbitrary condition, as illustrated in this work for the simple case of a constant rate of hydrogen generation/input. In comparison with other Pd/carbon-based/organic getter systems, these rubberized DEB O-rings provide a type of hydrogen getter material with enhanced flexibility and catalyst protection in applications where an O-ring seal is needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of model predictions with measured proton-induced production of nickel and iridium isotopes

Calculations were performed to support method development for simultaneous production of Ni and Ir isotopes. Here, the work scope included development of the physical target, irradiation configuration, and post-irradiation radiochemical separations. The assumptions of predictive models previously developed were refined based upon the precise experimental configuration selected, including Os target material and a set of stacked targets for concurrent production of Ni and Ir isotopes. Model predictions of the reaction cross sections with EMPIRE 3.21 and implied isotopic yields are compared with proton beam irradiation measurements to refine model parameters and guide future experiments.

Isotope Production↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A parametric study of slow dynamic nonlinear elasticity with comparisons to models

Several phenomenological models that aspire to quantitative description of anomalous nonlinear mesoscopic elasticity are reviewed and compared with laboratory measurements. This class of nonlinearity, best known perhaps for slow dynamics and aging, is seen widely in imperfectly consolidated granular solids but is not well understood. Typical slow dynamic tests show that a modest conditioning oscillatory "pump" strain depresses material stiffness, which then recovers like the logarithm of time after conditioning ceases. Several phenomenological models based on physical arguments have been proposed that predict the material stiffness response to arbitrary pump strain histories during conditioning and recovery. Approximate closed form and numerical solutions to the models are presented that predict the quantitative influence of three key pump parameters: the pump's strain amplitude, the pump's strain rate, and the pump’s duration. Laboratory measurements on Berea sandstone, concrete and a confined single aluminum bead find that slow dynamic responses are linear in pump strain and independent of pump frequency. Measurements also show that, after pump-off, stiffness recovers over times far longer than the pump duration. These observations and others are compared to model predictions. One of the considered models, based on a picture of fast brittle damage and slow healing, successfully matches all these behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗