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A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First attempt to quantify W7-X island divertor plasma by local experiment-model comparison

As a complement to our recent work, which focused on understanding the basic detachment physics and general experimental and numerical trends observed in the W7-X island divertor, this paper compares EMC3-Eirene simulation results with different local diagnostics, including IR cameras, Langmuir probes, H α -cameras, and Thomson scattering. The main purposes are to (1) justify the simulation setup in the previous work, (2) identify the application limitations of the current EMC3-Eirene model, (3) verify the consistency of different diagnostics, and (4) isolate the main geometric and physical effects that need to be prioritized in further developing the EMC3-Eirene code and improving diagnostic capabilities. It turns out that the current version of the EMC3-Eirene code (without drifts) is not yet able to quantitatively reproduce all selected local measurements simultaneously under the current experimental conditions (in particular, the existence of error fields). Nevertheless, it can be shown that within a reasonable range of variation in magnetic configuration, cross-field transport, and SOL plasma state in the modeling, a region of overlap between the numerical results and the local measurements can be established. More accurate model-experiment comparisons will require clarification of error fields, implementation of drifts in EMC3, and improvement of diagnostic capabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗

A cometary hydrogen model - Comparison with OGO-5 measurements of Comet Bennett /1970 II/

A model is constructed for the hydrogen cloud of Comet Bennett (1970 II) based on highly sensitive observations of its Lyman alpha emission by a photometer on board OGO-5 and taking into account the cometary motion, field gradients, solar L-alpha profile, and finite lifetime of the H atoms along their trajectories. The solar L-alpha flux is determined independently of instrumental calibration using the strong curvature of the hydrogen cloud in the orbital plane of the comet, and the cometary production rate of hydrogen atoms is calculated. The combination of two equally weighted Maxwellian velocity distributions with mean velocities of 7 and 21 km/sec is found to match the photometer scans across the comet better than any single Maxwellian distribution. A complete L-alpha isophote map is presented for the model hydrogen cloud on Mar. 20, 1970.

Keller, H. U.↗

Multi-Layer Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Comparison with ARM Observations and Sensitivity Experiments

A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is used to simulate the multiple-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) clouds that occurred during a three-and-a-half day subperiod of the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). The CRM is implemented with an advanced two-moment microphysics scheme, a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme, and a complicated third-order turbulence closure. Concurrent meteorological, aerosol, and ice nucleus measurements are used to initialize the CRM. The CRM is prescribed by time-varying large-scale advective tendencies of temperature and moisture and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. The CRM reproduces the occurrences of the single- and double-layer MPS clouds as revealed by the M-PACE observations. However, the simulated first cloud layer is lower and the second cloud layer thicker compared to observations. The magnitude of the simulated liquid water path agrees with that observed, but its temporal variation is more pronounced than that observed. As in an earlier study of single-layer cloud, the CRM also captures the major characteristics in the vertical distributions and temporal variations of liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), droplet number concentration and ice crystal number concentration (nis) as suggested by the aircraft observations. However, the simulated mean values differ significantly from the observed. The magnitude of nis is especially underestimated by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the lower cloud layer is closely related to the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat; the upper cloud layer is probably initialized by the large-scale advective cooling/moistening and maintained through the strong longwave (LW) radiative cooling near the cloud top which enhances the dynamical circulation; artificially turning off all ice-phase microphysical processes results in an increase in LWP by a factor of 3 due to interactions between the excessive LW radiative cooling and extra cloud water; heating caused by phase change of hydrometeors could affect the LWC and cloud top height by partially canceling out the LW radiative cooling. It is further shown that the resolved dynamical circulation appears to contribute more greatly to the evolution of the MPS cloud layers than the parameterized subgrid-scale circulation.

Luo, Yali↗

Insights on Nuclear Energy from Long-Term System Models: Inter-Model Comparison Results

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗

Calibration of radiation codes in climate models: Comparison of calculations with observations from the SPECtral Radiation Experiment (SPECTRE)

The primary goal of SPECTRE is to: close the loopholes by which longwave radiation models have eluded incisive comparisons with measurements. Likewise, the experimental approach was quite simple in concept, namely: accurately measure the zenith infrared radiance at high spectral resolution while simultaneously profiling the radiatively important atmospheric properties with conventional and remote sensing devices. The field phase of SPECTRE was carried out as part of FIRE Cirrus II, and detailed spectra of the down welling radiance were obtained by several interferometers simultaneous to the measurement of the optical properties of the atmosphere. We are now well along in the process of analyzing the data and calibrating radiation codes so that they may be used more effectively in climate related studies. The calibration is being done with models ranging from the most detailed (line-by-line) to the broad-band parameterizations used in climate models. This paper summarizes our progress in the calibration for clear-sky conditions. When this stage is completed, we will move on to the calibration for cirrus conditions.

Ellingson, R. G.↗

Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models Comparison to TMP17 and Next Steps

A set of empirical jet-surface interaction noise models, developed for single-stream round nozzles exhausting over a simple surface in a static ambient, are evaluated for use in more realistic applications that include multi-stream nozzle systems with chevrons and dihedral surface geometries. The simple-single-stream models have several advantages when used in system-level noise studies: they are robust, they are quickly computed, and they are generally applicable to a wide range of configurations. However, these models rely on a fixed noise source distribution that does not account for the presence of chevrons at the nozzle exit. The effect of this omission on the prediction accuracy is shown by this comparison to experimental data. This motivates discussion of future work to develop a more robust modeling framework that can account for generalized source distributions and more complex airframe geometries. Re: Top-Mounted Propulsion (TMP17) Test Plans.

Propulsion Noise↗

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

We have used a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM), developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), to carry out two simulations of the composition of the stratosphere under changing halogen loading for 1995 through 2030. The two simulations differ only in that one uses meteorological fields from a general circulation model while the other uses meteorological fields from a data assimilation system. A single year's winds and temperatures are repeated for each 36-year simulation. We compare results from these two simulations with an extensive collection of data from satellite and ground-based measurements for 1993-2000. Comparisons of simulated fields with observations of radical and reservoir species for some of the major ozone-destroying compounds are of similar quality for both simulations. Differences in the upper stratosphere, caused by transport of total reactive nitrogen and methane, impact the balance among the ozone loss processes and the sensitivity of the two simulations to the change in composition.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model: Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data - 2

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Deuterium on Venus - Model comparisons with Pioneer Venus observations of the predawn bulge ionosphere

A self-consistent model of the Venus ionosphere in the predawn bulge region where the mass-two ion density is observed to be maximum was prepared in order to examine the question of mass-two ion identification in detail. The model calculations are compared to the Pioneer Venus observations of ion composition and structure in the 153-250 km altitude range. The observed densities of major ions O2(+) and O(+) are used to constrain the source of ionization. Once the source is determined, the density distribution of D(+) and H2(+) is calculated for various values of D and H2 in the atmosphere. It is found that mass-two ion is clearly due to deuterium and that the H2 contribution to the mass-two ion is small, if present at all.

Kumar, S.↗

Simulations of the February 1979 stratospheric sudden warming: Model comparisons and three-dimensional evolution

The evolution of the stratopsheric flow during the major stratospheric sudden warming of February 1979 is studied using two primitive equation models of the stratosphere and mesosphere. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office Stratosphere-Mesosphere Model (SMM) uses log pressure as a vertical coordinate. A spectral, entropy coordinate version of the SMM (entropy coordinate model, or ECM) that has recently been developed is also used. Comparison of SMM simulations with forecasts performed using the University of California, Los Angeles general circulation model confirms the previously noted sensitivity of stratospheric forecasts to tropospheric forecasts and emphasizes the importance of adequate vertical resolution in modeling the stratosphere. The ECM simulations provide a schematic description of the three-dimensional evolution of the polar vortex and the motion of air through it. During the warming, the two cyclonic vortices tilt westward and equatorward with height. Strong upward velocities develop in the lower stratosphere on the west (cold) side of a baroclinic zone as it forms over Europe and Asia. Strong downward velocities appear in the upper stratosphere on the east (warm) side, strengthening the temperature gradients. After the peak of the warming, vertical velocities decrease, downward velocities move into the lower stratosphere, and upward velocities move into the upper stratosphere.

Manney, G. L.↗

Vertical Distribution of Saharan Dust from the Goddard Three Dimensional Transport Model: Comparison with LITE Data

Spatial distributions of Saharan dust are simulated by the Goddard 3D chemistry transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-2 DAS. An aerosol module accounts for gravitational settling and the aerosol source function is based on surface moisture content and wind speed. The simulated aerosol fields are compared with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by P. Ginoux in this session. The main focus is how ventilation of the assimilation winds will impact the simulated aerosol vertical distribution. Excessive ventilation would transport too much aerosol in the upper troposphere and lead to errors in the long range transport as well as errors in any radiative forcing calculations derived from the simulated aerosol fields. Simulated aerosol fields using GEOS-1 DAS wind fields for September 1994 will be compared with lidar observations during the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). The lidar return signal clearly delineates the vertical extent and horizontal variability of the aerosol layer allowing rigorous comparison with the simulated fields. A second focus is the simulation of aerosol scavenging due to moist processes. Three-dimensional precipitation fields can be derived from two possible sources: Assimilated precipitation fields from GEOS-DAS or fields obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave/imager (SSM/1). Of interest is the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol fields to the different precipitation fields driving the moist scavenging module.

Weaver, Clark J.↗

Analyzing Electric Field Morphology Through Data-Model Comparisons of the GEM IM/S Assessment Challenge Events

The storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field morphology and dynamics are assessed by comparing numerical modeling results of the plasmasphere and ring current with many in situ and remote sensing data sets. Two magnetic storms are analyzed, April 22,2001 and October 21-23,2001, which are the events selected for the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Inner Magnetosphere/Storms (IM/S) Assessment Challenge (IMSAC). The IMSAC seeks to quantify the accuracy of inner magnetospheric models as well as synthesize our understanding of this region. For each storm, the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM) and the dynamic global core plasma model (DGCPM) were run together with various settings for the large-scale convection electric field and the nightside ionospheric conductance. DGCPM plasmaspheric parameters were compared with IMAGE-EUV plasmapause extractions and LANL-MPA plume locations and velocities. RAM parameters were compared with Dst*, LANL-MPA fluxes and moments, IMAGE-MENA images, and IMAGE-HENA images. Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons were made to determine the electric field morphology that allows the model results to best fit the plasma data at various times during these events. The simulations with self-consistent electric fields were, in general, better than those with prescribed field choices. This indicates that the time-dependent modulation of the inner magnetospheric electric fields by the nightside ionosphere is quite significant for accurate determination of these fields (and their effects). It was determined that a shielded Volland-Stern field description driven by the 3-hour Kp index yields accurate results much of the time, but can be quite inconsistent. The modified Mcllwain field description clearly lagged in overall accuracy compared to the other fields, but matched some data sets (like Dst*) quite well. The rankings between the simulations varied depending on the storm and the individual data sets, indicating that each field description did well for some place, time, and energy range during the events, as well as doing less well in other places, times, and energies. Several unresolved issues regarding the storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field are discussed.

Liemohn, Michael W.↗

Electron Energetics in the Martian Dayside Ionosphere: Model Comparisons with MAVEN Data

This paper presents a study of the energetics of the dayside ionosphere of Mars using models and data from several instruments on board the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN spacecraft. In particular, calculated photoelectron fluxes are compared with suprathermal electron fluxes measured by the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer, and calculated electron temperatures are compared with temperatures measured by the Langmuir Probe and Waves experiment. The major heat source for the thermal electrons is Coulomb heating from the suprathermal electron population, and cooling due to collisional rotational and vibrational CO2 dominates the energy loss. The models used in this study were largely able to reproduce the observed high topside ionosphere electron temperatures (e.g., 3000 K at 300 km altitude) without using a topside heat flux when magnetic field topologies consistent with the measured magnetic field were adopted. Magnetic topology affects both suprathermal electron transport and thermal electron heat conduction. The effects of using two different solar irradiance models were also investigated. In particular, photoelectron fluxes and electron temperatures found using the Heliospheric Environment Solar Spectrum Radiation irradiance were higher than those with the Flare Irradiance Spectrum Model-Mars. The electron temperature is shown to affect the O2(+) dissociative recombination rate coefficient, which in turn affects photochemical escape of oxygen from Mars.

magnetic topology↗

K-coronameter observations and potential field model comparison in 1976 and 1977

Results of determining the shape and location of the heliospheric current sheet from a potential field model and from K-coronameter observations are compared. Interplanetary magnetic field polarities as observed by IMP 8, Helios 1 and 2, and Voyager 2 spacecraft were used to test the two methods over the period May 1976 to August 1977 throughout 18 Carrington rotations. The computed heliospheric current sheets from both methods had a quasi-stationary four-sector structure and very similar shapes. Agreement between interplanetary magnetic field polarity and the results from the potential field model was found on 79 percent of the days, while agreement between the interplanetary field polarity and the polarities derived from the K-coronameter data was found on 87 percent of the days.

Bruno, R.↗

Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations

The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗