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NASA NTRS2013

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗

NASA NTRS1976

Interactions of CH4 and CO in the earth's atmosphere

Global distributions, sources, and sinks of methane and carbon monoxide in upper and lower levels of the earth's atmosphere, and the global budgets of methane and carbon monoxide, are studied, with emphasis on cumulative pollution. Stratospheric contents, vertical profiles of concentrations, simulation of vertical transport through the atmosphere, and latitudinal distributions are examined. Diffuse and localized (urban) concentrations of CO as pollutant are studied, and anthropogenic sources and sinks for CH4 and CO are considered. Perturbation of the CH4-CO-CO2 cycle, crucial to self-cleansing mechanisms of the troposphere, by anthropogenic CO emissions, and the effect of CO long life as global pollutant, are investigated.

Wofsy, S. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Profiles of alpha 13 C and alpha D in methane from the lower stratosphere

Methane is an important greenhouse gas of biogenic and anthropogenic origin for which global budgets are being constructed from a variety of data. One approach to the global methane budget is the use of the stable isotopes C-13 and D, and the radionuclide C-14 as tracers. The authors measured the isotopic composition of methane from various sources and in tropospheric air for a number of locations. Here, the authors report on the isotopic composition of methane from the lower stratosphere. Measurements of this concentration in the stratosphere can yield estimates for the kinetic isotope effects in the methane destruction reactions. These effects have to be known for quantitative isotopic methane budgets.

Wahlen, Martin↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Multi-Tiered Methane Analytic Framework for Constraining Budgets, Point Source Attribution, and Anomalous Event Detection

UNKNOWN

Miller, Charles E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

NASA NTRS2011

Robust IR Remote Sensing Technique of the Total Column of Trace Gases Including Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Progress on the development of a differential radiometer based upon the Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) for methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (C02) detection in the atmosphere is presented. Methane measurements are becoming increasingly important as a component of NASA's programs to understand the global carbon cycle and quantifY the threat of global warming. Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the Earth's radiation budget (after water vapor and carbon dioxide) and the second most important anthropogenic contributor to global warming. The importance of global warming and air quality to society caused the National Research Council to recommend that NASA develop the following missions [1]: ASCENDS (Active Sensing of C02 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons), GEOCAPE (Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events), and GACM (Global Atmosphere Composition Mission). Though methane measurements are not specifically called out in these missions, ongoing environmental changes have raised the importance of understanding the methane budget. In the decadal survey is stated that "to close the carbon budget, we would also address methane, but the required technology is not obvious at this time. If appropriate and cost-effective methane technology becomes available, we strongly recommend adding a methane capability". In its 2007 report the International Panel on Climate Change identified methane as a key uncertainty in our understanding saying that the causes of recent changes in the growth rate of atmospheric CH4 are not well understood. What we do know is that methane arises from a number of natural sources including wet lands and the oceans plus man made sources from agriculture, as well as coal and petroleum production and distribution. It has recently been pointed out that large amount of methane are frozen in the permafrost of Canada and Siberia. There is a fear that melting of this permafrost driven by global warming may release large amounts of methane very suddenly further exacerbating climate change [2]. Last year our group began a joint effort with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory to investigate the possibility of developing a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped to measure greenhouse gases-particularly methane. Although we are targeting our system for smaller UAV's the instrument will be directly applicable to missions involving larger NASA UAV's such as Global Hawk or even on missions utilizing manned aircraft. Because of its small size, inherent ruggedness and simplicity some version of our proposed instrument may find a role as a satellite instrument for NASA or NOAA.

Georgieva, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying Methane Leak Emissions by Fused Airborne Imaging Spectroscopy with in Situ Surface Mobile and Airborne Observations of a California Producing Oil Field

Methane (CH4) emission budgets remain uncertain and are projected to grow as oil and gas production from short-lived wells increases and their subsequent transport through aging gas distribution networks. Orders-of-magnitude variations in temporal, spatial, and emission scales present a key challenge to leak detection and quantification. Also, the probability distributions for large and stochastic, leaky systems such as geological reservoirs (by natural migration-seeps) and petroleum production from those reservoirs remain largely unknown, needed to address current approach limitations. The scale of many petroleum systems favors remote sensing, but the sensitivity of such systems often precludes detection of weak emissions. Consequently, an accurate evaluation requires that the relative contribution from the emission "tails" of small leaks also be quantified, which is best carried out using high-sensitivity in situ methods. Fusion of remote sensing and in situ approaches leverages complementary capabilities to address these limitations. We show results from mobile surface (AMOG) and airborne in situ (AJAX) and thermal-infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (Mako) data applied to a producing oil field in the California Central Valley near Bakersfield. AMOG is an automobile-based mobile lab that measures 13 trace gases, aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles, 3D winds and other meteorology, and atmospheric column measurements by solar spectroscopy at highway speeds. AJAX measures 5 trace gases and 3D winds at ~140 m/s. Mako is a broad-area TIR imaging spectrometer that can discriminate multiple gases present in each pixel acquired. In situ-derived, total field emissions were 31±16 Gg/yr CH4. This was compared with Mako-derived emissions from all plumes identified across the study site. We found that super-emitters were not the dominant emissions mode and the spatial pattern of plume locations from production infrastructure was correlated to geological structures.

Leifer, Ira↗

DOE OSTI2023

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET–CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ~0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y –1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y –1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y –1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Chemical Modeling of the Reactivity of Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases: A Model Inter-Comparison Prescribing a Well-Measured, Remote Troposphere

We develop a new protocol for merging in situ measurements with 3-D model simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the goal of integrating over the data to identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production and loss of the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. Presupposing that we can accurately measure atmospheric composition, we examine whether models constrained by such measurements agree on the chemical budgets for ozone and methane. In applying our technique to a synthetic data stream of 14,880 parcels along 180W, we are able to isolate the performance of the photochemical modules operating within their global chemistry-climate and chemistry-transport models, removing the effects of modules controlling tracer transport, emissions, and scavenging. Differences in reactivity across models are driven only by the chemical mechanism and the diurnal cycle of photolysis rates, which are driven in turn by temperature, water vapor, solar zenith angle, clouds, and possibly aerosols and overhead ozone, which are calculated in each model. We evaluate six global models and identify their differences and similarities in simulating the chemistry through a range of innovative diagnostics. All models agree that the more highly reactive parcels dominate the chemistry (e.g., the hottest 10% of parcels control 25-30% of the total reactivities), but do not fully agree on which parcels comprise the top 10%. Distinct differences in specific features occur, including the regions of maximum ozone production and methane loss, as well as in the relationship between photolysis and these reactivities. Unique, possibly aberrant, features are identified for each model, providing a benchmark for photochemical module development. Among the 6 models tested here, 3 are almost indistinguishable based on the inherent variability caused by clouds, and thus we identify 4, effectively distinct, chemical models. Based on this work, we suggest that water vapor differences in model simulations of past and future atmospheres may be a cause of the different evolution of tropospheric O3 and CH4, and lead to different chemistry-climate feedbacks across the models.

greenhouse gases↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct Air Reactive Capture and Conversion for Utility-Scale Energy Storage (Final Report)

This final report for FEW0277 summarizes the work performed over the project performance period of October 2021 – March 2025. This project was funded under the “Reactive Capture and Conversion R&D” lab call released in FY2021. The goal of the project was to develop dual-function materials and process for capturing CO 2 from the atmosphere and converting it into CH 4 . The work was organized into four parallel tracks in 1) direct air capture materials synthesis and characterization, 2) catalysts for CO 2 conversion, 3) mechanistic investigations via ab initio simulations, and 4) process modeling, technoeconomic analysis, and lifecycle assessment. The project was split into two budget periods. The first budget period focused on development of amine-based materials, due to their known performance for CO 2 direct air capture and their potential to act synergistically with metal catalysts to enable a low-temperature methanation pathway. The second budget period focused on development of alkali-based materials and a simulated-moving-bed process for high conversion catalytic reduction of captured CO 2 to CH 4 . All project milestones were completed during the project performance period and are summarized in this report. Our work resulted in publication of eight peer-reviewed manuscripts, one patent application, and numerous presentations given at domestic and international conferences and invited academic department seminars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS1980

The chemistry and transport of methane and carbon monoxide in the troposphere

The present understanding of the physical and chemical behavior of methane, carbon monoxide and the chemical species involved in the conversion of CH4 to CO in the troposphere is reviewed. Following a brief summary of CO and CH4 emission and reactions in urban areas, attention is given to measurements of the spatial and temporal distributions of CO and CH4 in the rural atmosphere, the contribution of the oceans to atmospheric CO and CH4 concentrations, and interactions of CH4 and CO with soils and vegetation. Estimates of the transport of CH4 and CO from the troposphere to the stratosphere are discussed, and photochemical reactions of the constituents are examined. Two- and three-dimensional models for CH4 and CO transport are presented, and possible future variations in atmospheric abundances of the molecules are considered. Finally, present estimates of the global methane and carbon dioxide budgets are summarized, and it is pointed out that, despite the large contribution of anthropogenic sources, the budgets appear to be in balance.

Peters, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ecosystem approach to a global nitrous oxide budget

An approach using relationships among soil fertility, nitrogen cycling, and nitrous oxide production is presented in order to estimate nitrous oxide flux from humid tropical forests. The effects of human disturbance are also investigated. It is noted that recent estimates suggest that 6-10 million ha. of tropical forest are cleared permanently each year. The results of measurements of nitrous oxide flux from cleared and burned sites in Costa Rica and Brazil, in conjunction with satellite-based classifications of ecosystem types, are used to calculate average hourly fluxes for a given region. In the NASA intensive site near Manaus, Brazil, it was found that although pasture areas cover only 11 percent of the region they account for 40 percent of the nitrous oxide flux. This analysis of the fluxes of trace gases through consideration of the gradients of factors that control both fluxes and ecosystem properties and processes will prove useful for extrapolating fluxes and for calculating budgets of nitrous oxide, methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, and carbon dioxide.

Matson, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Servicing of Robotic Refueling Mission 3

The Robotic Refueling Mission 3 (RRM3) payload launched aboard a SpaceX rocket en route to the International Space Station on December 5th, 2018. The Goddard Space Flight Center designed payload carried approximately 50 liters of liquid methane onboard, with a mission to demonstrate long term storage and transfer of the cryogenic fluid in microgravity. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) was tasked to design, fabricate, test, and operate a system equipped to fill an RRM3 dewar with liquid methane prior to launch. Though KSC has a rich history of fueling rockets and payloads, no such operations had previously been accomplished using liquid methane. As such, all of the hardware and processes had to be developed from scratch. The completed ground system design, along with the verification and validation testing will be outlined in this paper. Several challenges that were met and overcome during procurement of the high purity methane are described. In addition, budget restrictions prohibited fueling operations from occurring in traditional processing facilities. The unique and creative solutions which were required to maintain payload cleanliness during cryogenic servicing are also detailed.

Cryogenics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Servicing of Robotic Refueling Mission 3

Thermal Conductivity↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Servicing of Robotic Refueling Mission 3

Cryogenics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-term dynamics of soil, tree stem and ecosystem methane fluxes in a riparian forest

The carbon (C) budgets of riparian forests are sensitive to climatic variability. Therefore, riparian forests are hot spots of C cycling in landscapes. Only a limited number of studies on continuous measurements of methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from riparian forests is available. Here, in this work, we report continuous high-frequency soil and ecosystem (eddy-covariance; EC) measurements of CH 4 fluxes with a quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer for a 2.5-year period and measurements of CH 4 fluxes from tree stems using manual chambers for a 1.5 year period from a temperate riparian Alnus incana forest. The results demonstrate that the riparian forest is a minor net annual sink of CH 4 consuming 0.24 kg CH 4 -C ha –1 y –1 . Soil water content is the most important determinant of soil, stem, and EC fluxes, followed by soil temperature. There were significant differences in CH 4 fluxes between the wet and dry periods. During the wet period, 83% of CH 4 was emitted from the tree stems while the ecosystem-level emission was equal to the sum of soil and stem emissions. During the dry period, CH 4 was substantially consumed in the soil whereas stem emissions were very low. A significant difference between the EC fluxes and the sum of soil and stem fluxes during the dry period is most likely caused by emission from the canopy whereas at the ecosystem level the forest was a clear CH 4 sink. Our results together with past measurements of CH 4 fluxes in other riparian forests suggest that temperate riparian forests can be long-term CH 4 sinks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗