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At least 55 records · Page 3

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation Microphysics - Part 2

Ten 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3-D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, colocated UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rainwater contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (mu) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes but lower RWCs. Two-moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and, thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision-coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a mu of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing mu to have values greater than 0 may improve excessive size sorting in two-moment schemes. Underpredicted stratiform rain rates are associated with underpredicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. A limited domain size also prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region like the one observed from developing in CRMs, although LAMs also fail to produce such a region.

three dimensional models↗

Impact of Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Variables into the PSU/NCAR MM5

Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.

Lapenta, William M.↗

The Influence of Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Land-Breeze Circulations on Sea-Breeze Initiated Precipitation

Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.

Baker, David R.↗

The Rise of GNSS Reflectometry for Earth Remote Sensing

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) reflectometry, i.e. GNSS-R, is a novel remote-sensing technique first published in that uses GNSS signals reflected from the Earth's surface to infer its surface properties such as sea surface height (SSH), ocean winds, sea-ice coverage, vegetation, wetlands and soil moisture, to name a few. This communication discusses the scientific value of GNSS-R to (a) furthering our understanding of ocean mesoscale circulation toward scales finer than those that existing nadir altimeters can resolve, and (b) mapping vegetated wetlands, an emerging application that might open up new avenues to map and monitor the planet's wetlands for methane emission assessments. Such applications are expected to be demonstrated by the availability of data from GEROS-ISS, an ESA experiment currently in phase A, and CyGNSS [3], a NASA mission currently in development. In particular, the paper details the expected error characteristics and the role of filtering played in the assimilation of these data to reduce the altimetric error (when averaging many measurements).

wetland mapping↗

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A numerical study of a marine subtropical stratus cloud layer and its stability

A model for numerical simulation of stratus cloud layers is constructed by combining a second-order closure, turbulent transfer model with a thermal radiative transfer model. The turbulent transfer model allows water vapor saturation. The combined turbulence-radiation model is applied to both a horizontally uniform one-dimensional case and a horizontally nonuniform two-dimensional case. In the latter, the dynamics of mesoscale circulations are also incorporated. Results of the two-dimensional simulation show that the layer cloud instability occurs where the sea surface temperature is high and the large-scale subsidence is weak. The simulated instability is analyzed in view of an instability criterion, the eddy kinetic energy budget, and evaporative cooling near the cloud top.

Moeng, C.-H.↗

Data analysis and model simulation of the initiation of convection on April 24, 1982

A combined modelling and data analysis is used to examine the initiation and development of a hail-producing mesoscale convective system which developed over the Texas panhandle near Amarillo, Texas, on April 24, 1982, and propagated east into Oklahoma. This event occurred during the NASA AVE-VAS IV experiment, as a dense upper air mesoscale network was collecting data at three-hour intervals. The results show that both synoptic and mesoscale processes separately and in concert help to force the convection. The destabilization of the atmosphere due to cold advection is important in removing any cap to deep convective development. The upper level moistening due to flow from the northwest also helps to increase the convective instability of the atmosphere. The mesoscale convergence due to cloud shading appears dominant over that of topography, but the latter cannot be ignored, especially in its sustained effect. The developing mesoscale circulation also appears to tap a surface supply of moisture feeding the convection.

Mcnider, R. T.↗

Comparison of vertical velocities analyzed by a numerical model and measured by a VHF wind profiler

The use of wind profilers for measuring vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is potentially of great interest for verification of forecasts, diagnosis of mesoscale circulations, and studies of wave motions. The studies of profiler vertical velocities to date have shown that the observed patterns of ascent and subsidence are reasonable when compared to the synoptic conditions. However, difficulties arise when a direct verification of the profiler vertical winds is sought. Since no other technique can measure the vertical velocities over the same height range and with the same claimed accuracy as the profilers, direct comparisons are impossible. The only alternative is to compare the measurements to analyzed vertical velocity fields. Here, researchers compare vertical measurements made with the SOUSY VHF radar over a period of 11 days at the beginning of November 1981 to the analyzed vertical velocities produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for grid points near the radar site.

Larsen, M. F.↗

Satellite detection of transient enhanced primary production in the western Mediterranean Sea

Extensive ship sampling of chlorophyll a and primary production of CO2 in the western Mediterranean Sea was conducted contemporaneous with Nimbus-7 coastal zone color scanner imagery. This approach resulted in an empirical model for estimating integrated water-column primary production from satellite imagery. Precision was adequate to resolve short-term fluctuations in primary production associated with a mesoscale circulation feature.

Lohrenz, Steven E.↗

Thermal characteristics of mountain desert terrain derived from thermal infrared multispectral scanner measurements

The spatial and temporal variability of mountain-desert territory thermal is examined with an airborne thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS). The purpose of the study is to demonstrate that inhomogeneities of the surface temperatures in the area can be adequately large to influence mesoscale circulations and the turbulence characteristics of boundary-layer flow. Ground truth measurements are compared to the TIMS imagery, with focus placed on the thermal infrared sensitivity to wet and dry soils, terrain elevation, and soil type. The results indicate that variations in the thermal features are dependent on soil type and soil moisture, and that the dependence on surface radiative temperatures on terrain elevation is apparent in daytime measurements.

Astling, E. G.↗

Evidence for asymmetric inertial instability in the FIRE satellite dataset

One of the main goals of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is obtaining the basic knowledge to better interpret satellite image of clouds on regional and smaller scales. An analysis of a mesoscale circulation phenomenon as observed in hourly FIRE satellite images is presented. Specifically, the phenomenon of interest appeared on satellite images as a group of propagating cloud wavelets located on the edge of a cirrus canopy on the anticylonic side of a strong, upper-level subtropical jet. These wavelets, which were observed between 1300 and 2200 GMT on 25 February 1987, are seen most distinctly in the GOES-West infrared satellite picture at 1800 GMT. The purpose is to document that these wavelets were a manifestation of asymmetric inertial instability. During their lifetime, the wavelets were located over the North American synoptic sounding network, so that the meteorological conditions surrounding their occurrence could be examined. A particular emphasis of the analysis is on the jet streak in which the wavelets were imbedded. The characteristics of the wavelets are examined using hourly satellite imagery. The hypothesis that inertial instability is the dynamical mechanism responsible for generating the observed cloud wavelets was examined. To further substantiate this contention, the observed characteristics of the wavelets are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a theoretical model of inertia instability by Stevens and Ciesielski.

Stevens, Duane E.↗

Surface energy fluxes at Central Florida during the convection and precipitation electrification experiment

One of the objectives of CaPE is to better understand the convective process in central and south Florida during the warm season. The energy and moisture exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere are closely related to this process. Some recent studies have shown that the surface energy balance plays an important role in the climatic fields (Shukla and Mintz, 1982; Sud and Smith, 1985; Sato et. al, 1989). Surface energy fluxes and related surface processes such as evapotranspiration and sensible heat transfer directly effect the temperature, humidity, cloud formation and precipitation. For example, mesoscale circulation around a discontinuity in vegetation type were shown to be stronger with wet soil than with dry soil using an evapotranspiration model (Pinty et. al, 1989). In order to better describe the processes in the atmosphere at various scales and improve our ability of modeling and predicting weather related events, it is crucial to understand the mechanism of surface energy transfer in relation to atmospheric events. Surface energy flux measurements are required to fully understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the surface.

Nie, D.↗

A comparison of small and larger mesoscale latent heat and radiative fluxes: December 6 case study

Because of the small amounts of water vapor, the potential for rapid changes, and the very cold temperatures in the upper troposphere, moisture measuring instruments face several problems related to calibration and response. Calculations of eddy moisture fluxes are, therefore, subject to significant uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to examine the importance of latent heat (moisture) fluxes due to small and larger mesoscale circulations in comparison to radiative fluxes within cirrus. Scale separation is made at about 1 km because of significant changes in the structures within cirrus. Only observations at warmer than -40 C are used in this study. The EG&G hygrometer that is used for measuring dewpoint temperature (Td) is believed to be fairly accurate down to -40 C. On the other hand, Lyman-Alpha (L-alpha) hygrometer measurements of moisture may include large drift errors. In order to compensate for these drift errors, the L-alpha hygrometer is often calibrated against the EG&G hygrometer. However, large errors ensue for Td measurements at temperatures less than -40 C. The cryogenic hygrometer frost point measurements may be used to calibrate L-alpha measurements at temperatures less than -40 C. In this study, however, measurements obtained by EG&G hygrometer and L-alpha measurements are used for the flux calculations.

Gultepe, I.↗

Scientific investigations of atmospheric processes

Research was performed in atmospheric, dynamical, and thermodynamical processes and in other disciplines necessary to accomplish the following tasks: develop procedures for combining generalized radiative transfer codes with dynamic atmospheric model codes; perform diagnostic analysis of atmospheric processes to gain a better understanding of the evolution and development of mesoscale circulation systems and their precipitation structures; and to develop algorithms and software necessary to graphically display diagnostic sets on the MSFC McIDAS and EADS to facilitate scientific study and sensor capability evaluation. Research activities during this reporting period are detailed.

Source record↗

The Use of CASES-97 Observations to Assess and Parameterize the Impact of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Area-Average Surface Heat Fluxes for Large-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Models

To understand the effects of land-surface heterogeneity and the interactions between the land-surface and the planetary boundary layer at different scales, we develop a multiscale data set. This data set, based on the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES97) observations, includes atmospheric, surface, and sub-surface observations obtained from a dense observation network covering a large region on the order of 100 km. We use this data set to drive three land-surface models (LSMs) to generate multi-scale (with three resolutions of 1, 5, and 10 kilometers) gridded surface heat flux maps for the CASES area. Upon validating these flux maps with measurements from surface station and aircraft, we utilize them to investigate several approaches for estimating the area-integrated surface heat flux for the CASES97 domain of 71x74 square kilometers, which is crucial for land surface model development/validation and area water and energy budget studies. This research is aimed at understanding the relative contribution of random turbulence versus organized mesoscale circulations to the area-integrated surface flux at the scale of 100 kilometers, and identifying the most important effective parameters for characterizing the subgrid-scale variability for large-scale atmosphere-hydrology models.

Chen, Fei↗

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using a Cloud-Mesoscale Model and TRMM Satellite

The urban heat island (UHI) has become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomena because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). The UHI has been documented in the literature to affect local and regional temperature distributions, wind patterns and air quality. The UHI can also impact the development of clouds and precipitation in and around cities. This paper will focus primarily on the UHI's impact on precipitation. In the past 30 years, several observational and climatological studies have theorized that the UHI can have a significant influence on mesoscale circulations and resulting precipitation (see Shepherd et al. 2002 for a thorough review). More recent studies have continued to validate and extend the findings from pre and post-METROMEX investigations. Shepherd et al. (2002) was one of the first (and possibly the first) attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Using a 15-month (spanning three years) analysis of mean rainfall rates, the cities of Atlanta, Montgomery, Dallas, Waco, and San Antonio were examined. Shepherd et al. (2002) found that the average percentage increase in mean rainfall rate in a hypothesized "downwind maximum impact area" over an "upwind control area" was 28.4% with a range of 14.6 to 51%. The typical distance of the downwind rainfall rate anomaly from the urban center was 30-60 km, consistent with earlier studies. This fact provides confidence that UHI-rainfall effects are real and detectable by TRMM satellite estimates.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗