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NASA NTRS1995

Space and time aliasing structure is monthly mean polar-orbiting satellite data

Monthly mean wind fields from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS1) scatterometer are presented. A banded structure which resembles the satellite subtrack is clearly and consistently apparent in the isotachs as well as the u and v components of the routinely produced fields. The structure also appears in the means of data from other polar-orbiting satellites and instruments. An experiment is designed to trace the cause of the banded structure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) gridded surface wind analyses are used as a control set. These analyses are also sampled with the ERS1 temporal-spatial samplig pattern to form a simulated scatterometer wind set. Both sets are used to create monthly averages. The banded structures appear in the monthly mean simulated data but do not appear in the control set. It is concluded that the source of the banded structure lies in the spatial and temporal sampling of the polar-orbiting satellite which results in undersampling. The problem involves multiple timescales and space scales, oversampling and under-sampling in space, aliasing in the time and space domains, and preferentially sampled variability. It is shown that commonly used spatial smoothers (or filters), while producing visually pleasing results, also significantly bias the true mean. A three-dimensional spatial-temporal interpolator is designed and used to determine the mean field. It is found to produce satisfactory monthly means from both simulated and real ERS1 data. The implications to climate studies involving polar-orbiting satellite data are discussed.

Zeng, Lixin↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗

NASA NTRS1976

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Revised estimation of 550-km times 550-km mean gravity anomalies

The calculation of 550-km x 550-km mean gravity anomalies from 1 degree x 1 degree mean free-air gravimetry data is discussed. The block estimate procedure developed by Kaula is used to obtain 1,504 of the 1,654 possible mean block anomalies. The estimated block anomalies calculated from 1 deg x 1 deg mean anomalies referred to the reference ellipsoid and from 1 degree x 1 degree mean anomalies referred to a 24th-degree-and-order field are compared.

Williamson, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Effect on head-wind profiles and mean head-wind velocity on landing capacity flying constant-airspeed and constant-groundspeed approaches

A study was conducted to determine the effect of head-wind profiles and mean head-wind velocities on runway landing capacity for airplanes flying constant-airspeed and constant-groundspeed approaches. It was determined that when the wind profiles were encountered with the currently used constant airspeed approach method, the landing capacity was reduced. The severity of these reductions increased as the mean head-wind value of the profile increased. When constant-groundspeed approaches were made in the same wind profiles, there were no losses in landing capacity. In an analysis of mean head winds, it was determined that in a mean head wind of 35 knots, the landing capacity using constant-airspeed approaches was 13% less than for the no wind condition. There were no reductions in landing capacity with constant-groundspeed approaches for mean head winds less than 35 knots. This same result was observed when the separation intervals between airplanes was reduced.

Hastings, E. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Simulations of the monthly mean atmosphere for February 1976 with the GISS model

Three monthly mean simulations of the global atmosphere were computed for February 1976 with the GISS model from observed initial conditions on the first day of the month. In a replication experiment, two of these computations generated slightly different monthly mean states, apparently due to the schedule of interruptions on the computer. The root-mean-square errors of replication over the Northern Hemisphere were found to be about 2 mb, 20 m and 1 K for sea level pressure, 500 mb height and 850 mb temperature, respectively. The monthly mean 500 mb forecast results for February 1976 over the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with those from earlier GISS model experiments and again indicate some predictive skill at that level. Use of the observed monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) field for February 1976 in place of the climatological SST field for February resulted in slightly improved simulations over the globe and Northern Hemisphere,

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Equatorial wave-mean flow interaction - A numerical study of the role of latitudinal shear

A time-dependent primitive equation model for an equatorial channel is used to assess the interaction of equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves with the mean flow. The proposed model involves a semiimplicit time-differencing scheme and a finite-difference grid in the meridional plane. It is shown that forced equatorial waves interact with mean flow to produce equatorial jets characterized by downward-moving westerly (Kelvin wave forcing) and easterly (mixed Rossby-gravity wave forcing) shear zones, respectively. For parameters characteristic of the observed waves in the equatorial stratosphere, the wave-mean flow interaction process always reduces the amplitude of any initial cross-equatorial mean wind shear. The mean flow profile tends to become symmetric about the equator as the interaction process continues.

Holton, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity

The paper extends a simple Budyko-Sellers mean annual energy balance climate model with diffusive transport to include a seasonal cycle. In the model the latitudinal distribution of the zonal average surface temperature is represented by Legendre polynomials and its time-dependence by a Fourier sine-cosine series, and it has three parameters adjusted so that the observed amplitudes of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean surface temperature are recovered. The seasonal model is used to reveal how the annual mean climate and the sensitivity to changes in incident radiation differ from the predictions obtained with the corresponding mean annual model. The distribution of the incident solar radiation in the models is shown to be insensitive to changes in the eccentricity and the longitude of perihelion and sensitive only to changes in the obliquity of the earth, and for past orbital changes both the seasonal and the mean annual model fail to produce glacial advances of the magnitude that are thought to have occurred.

North, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

Swaroop, R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A mechanistic model of Eulerian, Lagrangian mean, and Lagrangian ozone transport by steady planetary waves

Ozone transport is calculated for steady, dissipative planetary waves using the Eulerian, Lagrangian mean, and residual circulation. A Lagrangian model of parcel dynamics is used to interpret planetary wave-photochemistry interaction. In chemically active regions the mean field ozone changes are found to be significant only where there are large gradients in chemical sources and sinks along parcel trajectories. The largest changes in the mean field are found in the lower stratosphere and are due to the Lagrangian mean advection. When the Lagrangian mean advection is approximated by the residual circulation, errors in the transport velocities as large as 30 pct may occur.

Rood, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Predictability of time averages. I - Dynamical predictability of monthly means. II - The influence of the boundary forcings

The physical basis for the dynamic prediction of monthly means in weather parameters is examined in two papers. In the first paper, an attempt is made to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. In the second paper, the physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, and snow influence atmospheric circulation are discussed. On the basis of both studies, the essential requirements for establishing the physical basis for dynamical prediction of monthly means are to show that: (1) fluctuations of monthly means are larger than can be expected due to sampling of day-to-day weather changes; (2) there are low frequency planetary scale components of circulation which remain predictable beyond the limits of synoptic scale predictability; and (3) the influences of the slowly varying boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, snow, sea ice are large enough to produce significant and detectable changes in the monthly mean circulations. Observational and numerical evidence which support these requirements are presented.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The zonal harmonic and the yearly and half-yearly waves on the Southern Hemisphere in FGGE compared with the mean

The dominant component in the mean annual cycle of sea level pressure in the latitudes north of approx. 40 deg S is the yearly wave, whereas to the south of this latitude a half-yearly wave dominantes. In FGGE, however, the usually small yearly wave was large in the Antarctic, owing to the extraordinarily low pressure there in the winter of 1979. The half-yearly wave's amplitude was appreciably above normal in the center of each ocean in middle latitudes, and below normal at high latitudes. The yearly wave in the zonal geostrophic wind was larger than normal over the Antarctic Ocean. Similar results are obtained at 500 mb. The three month mean stationary waves (zonal harmonic waves) were larger than the mean in FGGE. The intra-annual variation of both amplitude and phase of the monthly mean harmonic waves in FGGE was large, which is not surprising as they contain an appreciable transient component, unlike the long term monthly mean waves.

Vanloon, H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Effects of a high mean stress on the high cycle fatigue life of PWA 1480 and correlation of data by linear elastic fracture mechanics

High-cycle fatigue tests using 5-mm-diameter smooth specimens were performed on the single crystal alloy PWA 1480 (001 axis) at 70F (room temperature) in air and at 100F (538C) in vacuum (10 to the -6 power torr). Tests were conducted at zero mean stress as well as at high tensile mean stress. The results indicate that, although a tensile mean stress, in general, reduces life, the reduction in fatigue strength, for a given mean stress at a life of one million cycles, is much less than what is predicted by the usual linear Goodman plot. Further, the material appears to be significantly more resistant to mean stress effects at 1000F than at 70F. Metallographic examinations of failed specimens indicate that failures in all cases are initiated from micropores of sizes of the order of 30 to 40 microns. Since the macroscopic stress-strain response in all cases was observed to be linear elastic, linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) analyses were carried out to determine the crack growth curves of the material assuming that crack initiation from a micropore (a sub o = 40 microns) occurs very early in life. The results indicate that the calculated crack growth rates at an R (defined as the ratio between minimum stress to maximum stress) value of zero are approximately the same at 70F as at 1000F. However, the calculated crack growth rates at other R ratios, both positive and negative, tend to be higher at 70F than at 1000F. Calculated threshold effects at large R values tend to be independent of temperature in the temperature regime studied. They are relatively constant with increasing R ratio up to a value of about 0.6, beyond which the calculated threshold stress intensity factor range decreases rapidly with increasing R ratios.

Majumdar, S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Evolution of the zonal mean state in the equatorial middle atmosphere during October 1978-May 1979

The week-to-week evolution of the zonal mean state of the equatorial middle atmosphere is studied using daily mapped temperatures derived with the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument on Nimbus 7. The characteristics of the LIMS instrument and rocket data are described. The development of the zonal mean state at low latitudes, and the relation between the evolution of the zonal mean state and extratropical changes are examined. The residual circulation is estimated using a radiative algorithm. Advection by the residual mean circulation, and the role of inertial acceleration in mean meridional circulations are discussed.

Hitchman, Matthew H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mean stress and the exhaustion of fatigue-damage resistance

Mean-stress effects on fatigue life are critical in isothermal and thermomechanically loaded materials and composites. Unfortunately, existing mean-stress life-prediction methods do not incorporate physical fatigue damage mechanisms. An objective is to examine the relation between mean-stress induced damage (as measured by acoustic emission) and existing life-prediction methods. Acoustic emission instrumentation has indicated that, as with static yielding, fatigue damage results from dislocation buildup and motion until dislocation saturation is reached, after which void formation and coalescence predominate. Correlation of damage processes with similar mechanisms under monotonic loading led to a reinterpretation of Goodman diagrams for 40 alloys and a modification of Morrow's formulation for life prediction under mean stresses. Further testing, using acoustic emission to monitor dislocation dynamics, can generate data for developing a more general model for fatigue under mean stress.

Berkovits, Avraham↗

NASA NTRS1990

Coherent wave-zonal mean flow interactions in the troposphere

A comprehensive analysis of wave-zonal mean flow variations in the troposphere is carried out using results of observations on the spatial structure and temporal evolution of synoptic time scale variations of the tropospheric zonal mean flow. Seven years of daily operational analysis are examined along with data from the NCAR GCM. Coherent wave-zonal mean flow interactions were revealed via cross-correlation analyses, including fluctuations in zonal mean temperature, three-dimensional winds, and quadratic wave quantities. It was found that tropical zonal wind tendency fluctuations are coherent with those anticipated from quasi-geostrophic wave driving, while tropical temperature tendencies are incoherent with analyzed zonal mean vertical velocities.

Randel, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The mean sea surface height and geoid along the Geosat subtrack from Bermuda to Cape Cod

The mean sea-surface height and the gravitational geoid are presently estimated via near-surface velocity changes and concurrent sea-level changes along an ascending Geosat subtrack. The velocity measurements were made on three traverses, within ten days, of a Geosat subtrack, by means of an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The mean sea-surface height was estimated as the difference between the instantaneous sea-surface height from ADCP and the Geosat residual sea level. In order to minimize mesoscale errors in the estimate, the along-track geoid estimate was computed as the difference between mean sea-level height from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission and an estimate of the mean sea-surface height.

Kelly, Kathryn A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Errors of five-day mean surface wind and temperature conditions due to inadequate sampling

Surface meteorological reports of wind components, wind speed, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature from buoys located in equatorial and midlatitude regions are used in a simulation of random sampling to determine errors of the calculated means due to inadequate sampling. Subsampling the data with several different sample sizes leads to estimates of the accuracy of the subsampled means. The number N of random observations needed to compute mean winds with chosen accuracies of 0.5 (N sub 0.5) and 1.0 (N sub 1,0) m/s and mean air and sea surface temperatures with chosen accuracies of 0.1 (N sub 0.1) and 0.2 (N sub 0.2) C were calculated for each 5-day and 30-day period in the buoy datasets. Mean values of N for the various accuracies and datasets are given. A second-order polynomial relation is established between N and the variability of the data record. This relationship demonstrates that for the same accuracy, N increases as the variability of the data record increases. The relationship is also independent of the data source. Volunteer-observing ship data do not satisfy the recommended minimum number of observations for obtaining 0.5 m/s and 0.2 C accuracy for most locations. The effect of having remotely sensed data is discussed.

Legler, David M.↗