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Building application of solar energy. Study no. 2: Representative buildings for solar energy performance analysis and market penetration

The following topics are discussed: (1) Assignment of population to microclimatic zones; (2) specifications of the mix of buildings in the SCE territory; (3) specification of four typical buildings for thermal analysis and market penetration studies; (4) identification of the materials and energy conserving characteristics of these typical buildings; (5) specifications of the HVAC functions used in each typical building, and determination of the HVAC systems used in each building; and (6) identification of the type of fuel used in each building.

Hirshberg, A. S.↗

Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) Market Study

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets. This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with wing mounted battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition; however, this would require additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Hybrid Electric↗

Confidence in Airline Performance in Difficult Market Conditions: An Analysis of JetBlue's Financial Market Results

This paper examines the stock market s reaction to JetBlue s Initial Public Offering (1PO) and subsequent price movements of the stock. In particular, w e examine whether the euphoria surrounding JetBlue s IPO carried over to other firms in the sector by testing whether the shares of JetBlue s competitors showed a significant price reaction to JetBlue s IPO. JetBlue's IPO took place just a few months following September 11, 2001. These events resulted in dramatic changes in the airline industry and had significant implications on the economic gains of airlines. We examine JetBlue s accounting and stock performance and compare it to the relative performance of Southwest Airlines (SWA), a representative of the loa-cost carrier group. In addition, we compare both JetBlue's and SWA's financial condition and the relative performance of their stock to two mainline U S. carriers, Continental and Northwest. representatives of the conventional-cost carrier group. We analyze whether there are any performance differences among the low-cost carriers and between low-cost carriers and conventional-cost carriers. In particular, we examine whether low-cost carriers were able to sustain the economic impacts of 9/11 better than the conventional-cost carriers.

Flouris, Triant↗

Geographic Information Systems and Web Page Development

The Facilities Engineering and Architectural Branch is responsible for the design and maintenance of buildings, laboratories, and civil structures. In order to improve efficiency and quality, the FEAB has dedicated itself to establishing a data infrastructure based on Geographic Information Systems, GIS. The value of GIS was explained in an article dating back to 1980 entitled "Need for a Multipurpose Cadastre" which stated, "There is a critical need for a better land-information system in the United States to improve land-conveyance procedures, furnish a basis for equitable taxation, and provide much-needed information for resource management and environmental planning." Scientists and engineers both point to GIS as the solution. What is GIS? According to most text books, Geographic Information Systems is a class of software that stores, manages, and analyzes mapable features on, above, or below the surface of the earth. GIS software is basically database management software to the management of spatial data and information. Simply put, Geographic Information Systems manage, analyze, chart, graph, and map spatial information. GIS can be broken down into two main categories, urban GIS and natural resource GIS. Further still, natural resource GIS can be broken down into six sub-categories, agriculture, forestry, wildlife, catchment management, archaeology, and geology/mining. Agriculture GIS has several applications, such as agricultural capability analysis, land conservation, market analysis, or whole farming planning. Forestry GIs can be used for timber assessment and management, harvest scheduling and planning, environmental impact assessment, and pest management. GIS when used in wildlife applications enables the user to assess and manage habitats, identify and track endangered and rare species, and monitor impact assessment.

Reynolds, Justin↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) were formulated using anthracite and thermoplastic binder. Lab scale test composites were formed by hot-press molding and commercial extrusion for test articles and for a full-scale prototype. Formulations and test matrices followed a systematic experimental design to examine the effects of and interactions among three primary independent variables: a) thermoplastic type, b) weight fractions of binder relative to the total anthracite weight, and c) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions. Technical performance metrics include compressive strength, modulus, porosity/permeability and density. These DoE studies establish composition-property relations and identify the best combination for any desired property of interest – in particular, strength. Based on CBB composition and fabrication process, validated against technical performance metrics, a techno-economic analysis was constructed which incorporated a process flow model, engineering design (with scaling), and calculated capital plus operating costs. Based on measured property metrics and estimated process economics and a projected price by TEA (techno-economic analysis), building and construction target markets were identified by a market survey assessment. With known cost, price, performance metrics and competitive advantages for CBBs matched with commercial applications/uses, a technical gap analysis was performed to identify further development required for scale-up and commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

Geothermal direct heat use: Market potential/penetration analysis for Federal Region 9

A preliminary study was made of the potential for geothermal direct heat use in Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada (Federal Region 9). An analysis was made of each state to: (1) define the resource, based on the latest available data; (2) assess the potential market growth for geothermal energy; and (3) estimate the market penetration, projected to 2020. Findings of the study include the following: (1) Potentially economical hydrothermal resources exist in all four states of the Region: however, the resource data base is largely incomplete, particularly for low to moderate temperature resources. (2) In terms of beneficial heat, the total hydrothermal resource identified so far for the four states is on the order of 43 Quads, including an estimated 34 Quads of high temperature resources which are suitable for direct as well as electrical applications. (3) In California, Hawaii, and Nevada, the industrial market sector has somewhat greater potential for penetration than the residential/commercial sector. In Arizona, however, the situation is reversed, due to the collocation of two major metropolitan areas (Phoenix and Tucson) with potential geothermal resources.

Powell, W.↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

The decline of coal use for energy production provides an abundance of local feedstock for new innovative uses and value-added products. Expanding the U.S. coal-value chain to manufacture high-value carbon products can strengthen the nation’s energy and mineral security, enhance the U.S. national defense security, increase the United States’ economic prosperity, while achieving U.S. environmental objectives. The primary project goal is a relatively light-weight composite product with superior (or comparable) compressive strength. Both virgin and, where available, post-consumer recycled thermoplastic versions are tested for each thermoplastic species. A useful attribute of thermoplastics as binders is that they can be heated to their melting point, cooled, and reheated again without significant degradation. A key advantage of thermoset CBBs is that they require only mixing and molding. CBB advantages include low cost, availability, binding ability and processability. Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) weigh about 50% less than clay bricks and can be manufactured with an interlocking design to promote ease of use for the novice builder. CBB formulation is evaluated according to a design-of-experiments (DoE) approach. DoE variables are a) relative weight fractions of binder, b) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions, and c) additive percentage. Fabrication methods include hot-press molding and extrusion, the later being the most commercially viable. CBBs are tested for compressive strength, modulus of rupture (by flexure test) and water absorption per ASTM C67, with density determined by the Archimedes drainage method. Fractured interfaces are examined by SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy) to resolve fracture dynamics and interior microstructure uniformity. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) is used to compare plastic transition temperatures i.e., glass and melting temperatures to contrast virgin with post-consumer recycled thermoplastics and optimize their usage. These results are used in the DoE analysis to identify the binder and relative weight percentages for optimum strength, density, and porosity. Overall, CBBs possess strength comparable to clay-based bricks but are non-permeable and hydrophobic, and hence resistant to degradation by freeze-fracturing, corrosion, and efflorescence. The strongest composites have been made with the following thermoplastic binders (in order of strength): thermoset, high-density polyethylene crosslink resin, high-density polyethylene, nylon 6/6, and polypropylene. Results from a techno-economic analysis TEA show economy of scale for CBBs by modularization and reveal the binder as the cost driver for material costs. Ideally, the incorporation of post-consumer recycled thermoplastic will decrease material acquisition costs and increase product sustainability. Notably, CBBs do not require the high temperature calcination needed to produce cement, nor do they require firing in the 1600-2400 °F range for three days using natural gas, as do clay brick equivalents. Instead, CBBs are heated to a modest <600 °F according to the melt flow index of the thermoplastic binder. Existing anthracite mines can be expanded to produce CBBs to reduce aggregate transportation costs and emissions that exist for clay bricks. TEA reflects this reduced energy cost while a comparative CO2 emission analysis quantifies the reduced environmental footprint. The market survey identifies several commercialization opportunities, dependent upon the brick classification.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Kennedy Space Center Spaceport Analysis

Until the Shuttle Atlantis' final landing on July 21, 2011, Kennedy Space Center (KSC) served as NASA's main spaceport, which is a launch and landing facility for rockets and spacecraft that are attempting to enter orbit. Many of the facilities at KSC were created to assist the Shuttle Program. One of the most important and used facilities is the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), This was the main landing area for the return of the shuttle after her mission in space. · However, the SLF has also been used for a number of other projects including straight-line testing by Gibbs Racing, weather data collection by NOAA, and an airfield for the KSC helicopters. This runway is three miles long with control tower at midfield and a fire department located at the end in care of an emergency. This facility, which was part of the great space race, will continue to be used for historical events as Kennedy begins to commercialize its facilities. KSC continues to be an important spaceport to the government, and it will transform into an important spaceport for the commercial industry as well. During my internship at KSC's Center Planning and Development Directorate, I had the opportunity to be a part of the negotiation team working on the agreement for Space Florida to control the Shuttle Landing Facility. This gave me the opportunity to learn about all the changes that are occurring here at Kennedy Space Center. Through various meetings, I discovered the Master Plan and its focus is to transform the existing facilities that were primarily used for the Shuttle Program, to support government operations and commercial flights in the future. This. idea is also in a new strategic business plan and completion of a space industry market analysis. All of these different documentations were brought to my attention and I. saw how they came together in the discussions of transitioning the SLF to a commercial operator, Space Florida. After attending meetings and partaking in discussions for the SLF Agreement, I formed the idea of a Spaceport Analysis as my over internship project. As previously stated, I had the opportunity to sit in on the market analysis meetings and read through the analysis itself. I suggested the creation of a Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis, which allows an individual to see an overview of the company's strengths and weaknesses alongside any industry opportunities and threats. After discussions with the lead writer of the new strategic business plan and getting approval, I took the action upon myself and created the Kennedy Space Center SWOT Analysis.

Wary, Samantha A.↗

Gaining the Competitive Edge: Design for Manufacturing

The successful design of a commercial aircraft which is intended to be in direct competition with existing aircraft requires a market analysis to establish design requirements, the development of a concept to achieve those goals. and the ability to economically manufacture the aircraft. It is often the case that an engineer designs system components with only the perspective of a particular discipline. The relationship of that component to the entire system is often a minor consideration. In an effort to highlight the interaction that is necessary during the design process, the students were organized into design/build teams and required to integrate aspects of market analysis, engineering design, production and economics into their concepts. In order to facilitate this process a hypothetical "Aeroworld" was established. Having been furnished relevant demographic and economic data for "Aeroworld". students were given the task of designing and building an aircraft for a specific market while achieving an economically competitive design. Involvement of the team in the evolution of the design from market definition to technical development to manufacturing allowed the students to identify critical issues in the design process and to encounter many of the conflicting requirements which arise in an aerospace systems design.

Batill, Stephen M.↗

Advanced Modular Sub-Atmospheric Hybrid Heat Engine (Final Report)

The Phase 1 Final Technical Report describes the results of the work completed during the “Advanced Modular Sub-Atmospheric Hybrid Heat Engine” project. A key part of the Phase 1 work was the completion of a thermodynamic cycle analysis for the MHHE at the selected module size. The hybrid heat engine has been developed as a modular unit (sized in the range of 500kW – 60MW) that can be used with modular coal or biomass gasifiers, with distributed power generation systems, with large power plants comprised of multiple generating units, and with natural gas compression stations. The MHHE will provide cleaner, more efficient, and lower cost generation with better load following capabilities than existing competing technologies with a singular generating source such as solar farm, gas turbine, or combustion engine. The drivers of the MHHE technology are: benefits of modular power generation (reduced equipment cost, construction cost and implementation time, connection ready on delivery, flexible scalability, serviceability), fuel flexibility, lowest cost power generation and reduced emissions.A logical progression of work and a clear path forward toward meeting the FOA goals and objectives have been established. Namely, a preliminary market analysis and primary fuel identification was completed first and then the modularity of the system was defined. The benefits of the proposed hybrid and modular heat engine were described when applied to modular coal gasifiers, distributed power generators, and larger power plants. Based on the market analysis, modularity, and chosen primary fuel, a conceptual design and layout of the hybrid heat engine was developed, analyzed, and characterized. The technology gaps already identified have been reviewed and expanded upon, and a test plan to address these gaps through bench scale testing in Phase 2 has been developed. Cost estimate methodology and considerations in support of a potential Phase 2 project have been described.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗

Residential Façade Upgrades: Market Assessment and Recommendations

In support of DOE’s move toward transformational whole-building upgrades and enclosure solutions, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are partnering and collaborating with leading building science researchers and home-performance entities to identify and characterize technical and economic barriers to façade retrofits in an effort to identify market-viable façade solutions and opportunities for an actionable plan to transform the market. The project includes partnerships with Building Science Corporation (BSC) and a combination of strategic implementation partners with home-performance and retrofit expertise and industry contacts. The project will include expert advisory and review consultation from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL’s) Residential Windows & Attachments team and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Building Envelope team. The project consists of three parts: 1. a market analysis that captures the current state of the façade retrofit market and includes housing characteristics and retrofit costs, façade retrofit approaches and materials, contractor business models and workforce requirements to support advanced façade approaches; 2. an economic analysis focused on the viability of advanced façade retrofit approaches and materials; and 3. field demonstration of façade retrofits that include enhanced insulation/air-sealing and window technologies in multiple climate zones. This report represents the market analysis, as outlined in item 1 above. The goal of this analysis is to provide a techno-economic study that supports comprehensive retrofits of residential enclosures that include traditional approaches, and integrated wall assemblies and windows that result in durable, energy efficient, and marketable strategies. This study will provide a better knowledge base regarding the viable market for façade retrofit strategies, identify the barriers to uptake, analyze economic opportunities, and develop documentation specifically aimed to overcome technical and market barriers associated with installation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗