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Mathematical model for preventive maintenance scheduling

A model is formulated to describe the effect of the time interval chosen for preventive maintenance upon the frequency of failure and frequency of total maintenance. Trade-offs between these two frequencies are determined by computation of an optimal interval in the case where the failure distribution is known. For unknown distributions, an adaptive statistical technique is developed that converges to an optimal preventive maintenance interval. A numerical illustration is given.

Lorden, G.↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

OPTOM: Optimization of Parabolic Trough - Operations & Maintenance

The US Department of Energy’s SunShot goals look to reduce the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology to 5¢/kWh for baseload plants. This is about a 50% reduction from current costs. To achieve this cost target, a significant reduction in operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of 40 to 50% is likely needed. Advances are needed in the O&M practices of CSP plants if the technology is to achieve the SunShot cost goals. Digitization of plant performance and O&M data has become a new best practice in the world of renewable energy asset management. Owners and operators of large photovoltaic and wind power plants are working to digitize performance and O&M data at their existing assets, to improve their management of the facilities, to increase performance, reduce O&M costs, and lower the overall life cycle cost of ownership. CSP power plants are behind the curve of other technologies on the digitization of plant information to aid in the plant asset management. This project directly addresses the objective of digitizing the O&M data of the solar field, focusing on three areas: 1) creating a framework for sharing data and information, 2) creating a system for monitoring and managing the maintenance of the solar field collectors, and 3) developing analytic tools to identify issues in the solar field. According to the NREL CSP Best Practices Study, the current practice at many CSP plants is to rely on paper lists, spreadsheets, and email for monitoring and managing problems and maintenance in the solar field. The key element to digitize solar field O&M is the creation of a centralized data archive that all users and systems can interface with. This project developed a centralized relational database framework that allows users and applications to access and share data. Conventional power plants utilize Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (CMMSs) to track the corrective, preventive (scheduled), and predictive maintenance of equipment and subsystems in the power plant. CSP plants use these systems in the power block, but while these systems specialize at tracking maintenance on up to thousands of pieces of equipment, they are not well suited for tracking the tens or hundreds of thousands of components in large commercial CSP or photovoltaic solar fields. In this project we developed a new software application referred to as FieldStatus (TM). This is a specialized database program that is used to track the status of each collector and its components. This application is designed to complement the existing CMMS to enable improved tracking and management of maintenance activities in the solar field. One of the major maintenance tasks for solar fields is maintaining the cleanliness of the mirrors. Although seemingly a relatively straight forward task, it has often proven challenging to maintain high levels of cleanliness in an efficient and cost-effective manner. This project developed new tools and metrics for monitoring and optimizing solar field cleaning resources and overall solar field cleanliness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗

Rotorcraft Diagnostics

Health management (HM) in any engineering systems requires adequate understanding about the system s functioning; a sufficient amount of monitored data; the capability to extract, analyze, and collate information; and the capability to combine understanding and information for HM-related estimation and decision-making. Rotorcraft systems are, in general, highly complex. Obtaining adequate understanding about functioning of such systems is quite difficult, because of the proprietary (restricted access) nature of their designs and dynamic models. Development of an EIM (exact inverse map) solution for rotorcraft requires a process that can overcome the abovementioned difficulties and maximally utilize monitored information for HM facilitation via employing advanced analytic techniques. The goal was to develop a versatile HM solution for rotorcraft for facilitation of the Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM+) capabilities. The effort was geared towards developing analytic and reasoning techniques, and proving the ability to embed the required capabilities on a rotorcraft platform, paving the way for implementing the solution on an aircraft-level system for consolidation and reporting. The solution for rotorcraft can he used offboard or embedded directly onto a rotorcraft system. The envisioned solution utilizes available monitored and archived data for real-time fault detection and identification, failure precursor identification, and offline fault detection and diagnostics, health condition forecasting, optimal guided troubleshooting, and maintenance decision support. A variant of the onboard version is a self-contained hardware and software (HW+SW) package that can be embedded on rotorcraft systems. The HM solution comprises components that gather/ingest data and information, perform information/feature extraction, analyze information in conjunction with the dependency/diagnostic model of the target system, facilitate optimal guided troubleshooting, and offer decision support for optimal maintenance.

Haste, Deepak↗

Autonomous In-space Construction, Maintenance, and Reconfiguration Using Programmable Meta-Material

NASA ARC's Coded Structures Laboratory (CSL) is developing autonomous construction, maintenance, and reconfiguration technologies to meet long-duration and deep space infrastructure needs, in accordance with long-term NASA goals of "in-space reliance" and "mass-less exploration." We seek to achieve these capabilities by utilizing a "programmable meta-material" approach that integrates emerging advances in materials (mechanical meta-materials), manufacturing (cooperative mobile robotics), and autonomy (multi-agent planning algorithms). Through the ARMADAS project, we have shown assembly of high-performance engineered cellular materials using multiple cooperating mobile robotic assemblers. In this paper, we describe how such a programmable meta-material architecture may shift the paradigm of how we design, build, manufacture, and operate future space infrastructure and assets. The core of a programmable meta-material architecture consists of 3 main technology sub-areas: the structure, the assembly agents, and the assembly algorithms. We co-design these systems to ensure an adaptable system that can create and reconfigure structures from a base set of building block components. From this core technology, we can branch out and expand the capability of the system through additional secondary component types and robotic agents to perform activities such as inspections, maintenance, repair, payload installation, or perform power and communications interconnect. As these technologies mature, future designers will be able to utilize the system to rapidly integrate and operate assets in space or on planetary surfaces from a set of well-tested part library, or create their own modules to integrate into the system. A core trait to the development of this system is the automation approach. Because of the modular and functional discrete (pixel-like) nature of the structural system, a diverse set of powerful algorithms for analysis, planning, and simulation can be adapted and leveraged to optimize construction, maintenance, and dynamic reorganization (as hardware with programmable form and function). With an ability to free the design space from launch vehicle constraints and fundamentally shift how a mission is designed and conducted, we discuss the influence of a programmable meta-material architecture on mission design, build, and operations. For the "design phase", we discuss project lifecycle effects, costs, time, and performance. For the "build phase", we discuss reusability, ISRU, manufacturing, material logistics, and scalability. And for "operations", we discuss autonomy, maintenance and upgrades, reliability, and reconfiguration. Autonomy and modularity are the primary enabling traits of this system. Engineering systems that utilize a modular and reconfiguration building block approach such as digital communication and computation systems, currently lead all other areas of technology in size and complexity scalability. NASA is extending the benefits and flexibility of digital systems to hardware systems, to optimize materials lifecycle management and expand our space exploration mission capabilities.

in space assembly↗

The Benefits and Weaknesses of Containerizing Software for HPC

Containerization technology has emerged as a transformative tool for software engineers, offering consistent development and deployment environments, simplifying dependency management, and enhancing scalability and portability across diverse systems. However, its application in High-Performance Computing (HPC) presents unique challenges, including the management of virtualization overhead, the need for efficient resource allocation, and the maintenance of optimal performance for compute-intensiv

Ho, Eric Victor [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗

Significance of biorhythms in space flight

Evidence is presented that the most important factor in the maintenance of optimal health and performance is the stability of the relationship of one body rhythm to another. The effect of social interaction on performance, well-being, and physiological rhythm synchrony was investigated. Three groups of healthy males, ages 21 to 25, were confined in rooms (3.4 by 5.2 meters (11 by 17 feet)) for a total period of 105 days. Two of the groups were in rooms in which the environment could be regulated. The third group served as the control group and was exposed to ambient experimental conditions. The confined subjects were exposed for periods to several days either to 16 hours of light and 8 hours of dark, or to continuous light at a light intensity of 161 lm/sq m (15 foot-candles). The confined subjects were deprived of all time cues, and meals were ad libitum. The subjects were observed throughout the study by a video camera and were scored for activity. Communications were limited to meal and sample-collection information, and meals and samples were passed through a two-way hatch. Rectal temperature and heart rate (HR) were sampled every 30 minutes by telemetry throughout the study. Results are presented.

Winget, C. M.↗

Communications systems technology assessment study. Volume 2: Results

The cost and technology characteristics are examined for providing special satellite services at UHF, 2.5 GHz, and 14/12 GHz. Considered are primarily health, educational, informational and emergency disaster type services. The total cost of each configuration including space segment, earth station, installation operation and maintenance was optimized to reduce the user's total annual cost and establish preferred equipment performance parameters. Technology expected to be available between now and 1985 is identified and comparisons made between selected alternatives. A key element of the study is a survey of earth station equipment updating past work in the field, providing new insight into technology, and evaluating production and test methods that can reduce costs in large production runs. Various satellite configurations were examined. The cost impact of rain attenuation at Ku-band was evaluated. The factors affecting the ultimate capacity achievable with the available orbital arc and available bandwidth were analyzed.

Kelley, R. L.↗

Clinical physiology of bed rest

Maintenance of optimal health in humans requires the proper balance between exercise, rest, and sleep as well as time in the upright position. About one-third of a lifetime is spent sleeping; and it is no coincidence that sleeping is performed in the horizontal position, the position in which gravitational influence on the body is minimal. Although enforced bed rest is necessary for the treatment of some ailments, in some cases it has probably been used unwisely. In addition to the lower hydrostatic pressure with the normally dependent regions of the cardiovascular system, body fuid compartments during bed rest in the horizontal body position, and virtual elimination of compression on the long bones of the skeletal system during bed rest (hypogravia), there is often reduction in energy metabolism due to the relative confinement (hypodynamia) and alteration of ambulatory circadian variations in metabolism, body temperature, and many hormonal systems. If patients are also moved to unfamiliar surroundings, they probably experience some feelings of anxiety and some sociopsychological problems. Adaptive physiological responses during bed rest are normal for that environment. They are attempts by the body to reduce unnecessary energy expenditure, to optimize its function, and to enhance its survival potential. Many of the deconditioning responses begin within the first day or two of bed rest; these early responses have prompted physicians to insist upon early resumption of the upright posture and ambulation of bedridden patients.

Greenleaf, John E.↗

Oxygen scrubbing and sensing in plant growth chambers using solid oxide electrolyzers

The maintenance of optimal levels of oxygen in the gaseous environment of a plant growth chamber during light and dark periods is an essential criterion for the correct growth of plants. The use of solid oxide electrolyzers to control the oxygen levels by removing the excess gaseous oxygen during periods of illumination and full-scale photosynthesis is described. A part of the oxygen removed can be stored and supplied back to the plants during dark periods. The excess oxygen can be used by the crew. The electrolizer can be additionally used in its open circuit mode, to sense the oxygen concentrations in the plant chamber. The solid oxide electrolysis process is described.

Sridhar, K. R.↗

Digital Twin Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable improved scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derate while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. Digital twins for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. However, digital twins may also provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information. These insights may be used for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection and are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a. However, digital twin technologies are still under significant development; quantifying model uncertainties, improving unique fault identification, and multimodal sensor fusion are some areas under investigation. Therefore, in this work, we discuss and review the various enabling technologies, in the form of advanced sensors, instrumentation, and modelling methods, that may be used to implement and enhance digital twins for online condition monitoring. A potential use case for pump-motors is presented to demonstrate how these various pieces of enabling digital twin technologies may integrated together for online condition monitoring. Challenges and opportunities associated with the pump-motor digital twin enabling technologies are also identified and discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Digital-Twin-Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable improved scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derates while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. Digital twins for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. However, digital twins may also provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information. These insights may be used for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection and are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a. However, digital twin technologies are still under significant development; quantifying model uncertainties, improving unique fault identification, and multimodal sensor fusion are some areas under investigation. Therefore, in this work, we discuss and review the various enabling technologies, in the form of advanced sensors, instrumentation, and modelling methods, that may be used to implement and enhance digital twins for online condition monitoring. A potential use case for pump-motors is presented to demonstrate how these various pieces of enabling digital twin technologies may integrated together for online condition monitoring. Challenges and opportunities associated with the pump-motor digital twin enabling technologies are also identified and discussed.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization as a Tool for Consistency Maintenance in Multi-Resolution Simulation

The need for new approaches to the consistent simulation of related phenomena at multiple levels of resolution is great. While many fields of application would benefit from a complete and approachable solution to this problem, such solutions have proven extremely difficult. We present a multi-resolution simulation methodology that uses numerical optimization as a tool for maintaining external consistency between models of the same phenomena operating at different levels of temporal and/or spatial resolution. Our approach follows from previous work in the disparate fields of inverse modeling and spacetime constraint-based animation. As a case study, our methodology is applied to two environmental models of forest canopy processes that make overlapping predictions under unique sets of operating assumptions, and which execute at different temporal resolutions. Experimental results are presented and future directions are addressed.

TEMPORAL RESOLUTION↗

Implementing a unified solver for nonlinearly constrained optimization

SQP and interior-point methods (also referred to as Lagrange-Newton methods) typically share key algorithmic components, such as strategies for computing descent directions and mechanisms that promote global convergence. Building on this insight, we introduce a unifying framework with eight building blocks that abstracts the workflows of Lagrange-Newton methods. We then present Uno, a modular C++ solver that implements our unifying framework and allows the automatic combination of a wide range of strategies with no programming effort from the user. Uno is meant to (1) organize mathematical optimization strategies into a coherent hierarchy; (2) offer a wide range of efficient and robust methods that can be compared for a given instance; (3) enable researchers to experiment with novel optimization strategies; and (4) reduce the cost of development and maintenance of multiple optimization solvers. Uno’s software design allows user to compose new customized solvers for emerging optimization areas such as robust optimization or optimization problems with complementarity constraints, while building on reliable nonlinear optimization techniques. We demonstrate that Uno is highly competitive against state-of-the-art solvers filterSQP, IPOPT, SNOPT, MINOS, LANCELOT, LOQO, and CONOPT on a subset of 429 small problems from the CUTE collection. Uno is available as open-source software under the MIT license at https://github.com/cvanaret/Uno and via its C, Julia, Python, Fortran, and AMPL interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗