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NASA NTRS1994

Ozone and aerosol distributions in the summertime troposphere over Canada

Measurements of ozone (O3) and aerosol distributions were made with an airborne lidar system in the lowland and boreal forest regions of eastern Canada during July - August 1990 as part of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B. Aerosol and O3 profiles were measured simultaneously above and below the Electra aircraft from near the surface to above the tropopause on long-range flights over these important ecosystems. A broad range of atmospheric conditions were encountered during repeated flights over intensive study sites in the Hudson Bay lowlands near Moosonee, Ontario, and over the boreal forest near Schefferville, Quebec. The tropospheric composition in this high-latitude region was found to be strongly influenced by stratospheric intrusions. Regions of low aerosol scattering and enhanced O3 mixing ratios were correlated with descending air from the lower stratosphere. Over 33% of the troposphere (0-12 km) along our flight track at latitudes from about 45 deg to 55 deg N had significantly enhanced O3 due to stratospheric intrusions, and in the middle to upper troposphere the extent of the enhanced O3 gnerally exceeded 40%. Ozone mixing ratios of 80 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) near 6 km were common in strong intrusions. In the boundary layer over the lowlands, O3 was in the 20-30 ppbv range with a vertical O3 gradient of 6.7 ppbv/km to about 45 ppbv at 3 km. Above 6 km the background tropospheric O3 profile was nearly constant with an average value of 53 ppbv. Due to forest fires in Canada and Alaska, plumes from biomass-burning sources were observed on many flights. Biomass-burning plumes influenced about 25% of the free troposphere below 4 km, and in some of the plumes, O3 was enhanced by 10-20 ppbv over ambient levels of 30-45 ppbv. Several air masses transported from the tropical Pacific were observed over Canada in the middle to upper troposphere with O3 levels 10-20 ppbv below background values of 50-55 ppbv.

Browell, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Heat Transfer from Radiatively Heated Material in a Low Reynolds Number Microgravity Environment

A mathematical model of the transient three-dimensional heat transfer between a slowly moving ambient gas stream and a thermally thick or thin flat surface heated by external radiation in a microgravity environment is presented. The problem is motivated in part by fire safety issues in spacecraft. The gas phase is represented by variable property convection-diffusion energy and mass conservation equations valid at low Reynolds numbers. The absence of gravity and low Reynolds number together permit the flow to be represented by a self-consistent velocity potential determined by the ambient velocity and the thermal expansion in the gas. The solid exchanges energy with the gas by conduction/convection and with the surroundings by surface absorption and re-emission of radiation. Heat conduction in the solid is assumed to be one dimensional at each point on the surface as a consequence of the limited times (of order of 10 seconds) of interest in these simulations. Despite the apparent simplicity of the model, the results show a complex thermally induced flow near the heated surface. The thermal exchange between the gas and solid produces an outward sourcelike flow upstream of the center of the irradiated area and a sinklike flow downstream. The responses of the temperature fields and the associated flows to changes in the intensity of the external radiation and the ambient velocity are discussed.

Yamashita, H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Use of AIRSAR to identify woody shrub invasion and other indicators of desertification in the Jornada LTER

The replacement of semidesert grassland by woody shrubland is a widespread form of desertification. This change in physiognomy and species composition tends to sharply reduce the productivity of the land for grazing by domestic livestock, increase soil erosion and reduce soil fertility, and greatly alter many other aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning. Remote sensing methods are needed to assess and monitor shrubland encroachment. Detection of woody shrubs at low density would provide a particularly useful baseline on which to access changes, because an initially low shrub density often tends to increase even after cessation of the disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, drought, or fire suppression) responsible for triggering the initial stages of the invasion (Grover and Musick, 1990). Limited success has been achieved using optical remote sensing. In contrast to other forms of desertification, biomass does not consistently decrease with a shift from grassland to shrubland. Estimation of green vegetation amount (e.g., by NDVI) is thus of limited utility, unless the shrubs and herbaceous plants differ consistently in phenology and the area can be viewed during a season when only one of these is green. The objective of this study was to determine if the potential sensitivity of active microwave remote sensing to vegetation structure could be used to assess the degree of shrub invasion of grassland. Polarimetric Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data were acquired for a semiarid site containing varied mixtures of shrubs and herbaceous vegetation and compared with ground observations of vegetation type and other landsurface characteristics. In this preliminary report we examine the response of radar backscatter intensity to shrub density. The response of other multipolarization parameters will be examined in future work.

Musick, H. Brad↗
NASA NTRS2022

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption -Part 2: Particle-phase dispersion and concurrent wildfire smoke emissions

Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The arrival of these aerosol layers in late June caused some concern within the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations the volcanic plume from the 21 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke was not expected over the UK until early July. Using dispersion simulations from the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), and supporting evidence from satellite and in situ aircraft observations, we show that the early arrival of the stratospheric layers was not due to aerosols from the explosive eruption of the Raikoke volcano but due to biomass burning smoke aerosols associated with intense forest fires in Alberta, Canada, that occurred 4 d prior to the Raikoke eruption. We use the observations and model simulations to describe the dispersion of both the volcanic and forest fire aerosol clouds and estimate that the initial Raikoke ash aerosol cloud contained around 15 Tg of volcanic ash and that the forest fires produced around 0.2 Tg of biomass burning aerosol. The operational monitoring of volcanic aerosol clouds is a vital capability in terms of aviation safety and the synergy of NAME dispersion simulations, and lidar data with depolarising capabilities allowed scientists at the Met Office to interpret the various aerosol layers over the UK and attribute the material to their sources. The use of NAME allowed the identification of the observed stratospheric layers that reached the UK on 27 June as biomass burning aerosol, characterised by a particle linear depolarisation ratio of 9 %, whereas with the lidar alone the latter could have been identified as the early arrival of a volcanic ash–sulfate mixed aerosol cloud. In the case under study, given the low concentration estimates, the exact identification of the aerosol layers would have made little substantive difference to the decision-making process within the London VAAC. However, our work shows how the use of dispersion modelling together with multiple observation sources enabled us to create a more complete description of atmospheric aerosol loading.

Martin J Osborne↗
NASA NTRS1996

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO Cirrus Case Study: Cloud Optical Properties Determined by High Spectral Resolution Lidar

During the First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) cirrus intensive field observation (IFO) the High Spectral Resolution Lidar was operated from a roof top site on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Because the HSRL technique separately measures the molecular and cloud particle backscatter components of the lidar return, the optical thickness is determined independent of particle backscatter. This is accomplished by comparing the known molecular density distribution to the observed decrease in molecular backscatter signal with altitude. The particle to molecular backscatter ratio yields calibrated measurements of backscatter cross sections that can be plotted ro reveal cloud morphology without distortion due to attenuation. Changes in cloud particle size, shape, and phase affect the backscatter to extinction ratio (backscatter-phase function). The HSRL independently measures cloud particle backscatter phase function. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the HSRL cirrus cloud data acquired over an approximate 33 hour period of continuous near zenith observations. Correlations between small scale wind structure and cirrus cloud morphology have been observed. These correlations can bias the range averaging inherent in wind profiling lidars of modest vertical resolution, leading to increased measurement errors at cirrus altitudes. Extended periods of low intensity backscatter were noted between more strongly organized cirrus cloud activity. Optical thicknesses ranging from 0.01-1.4, backscatter phase functions between 0.02-0.065 sr (exp -1) and backscatter cross sections spanning 4 orders of magnitude were observed. the altitude relationship between cloud top and bottom boundaries and the cloud optical center altitude was dependent on the type of formation observed Cirrus features were observed with characteristic wind drift estimated horizontal sizes of 5-400 km. The clouds frequently exhibited cellular structure with vertical to horizontal dimension ratios of 1:5-1:1.

Grund, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Operations for a New Era of Exploration Launch Vehicles

NASA's Constellation Program is depending on the Ares Projects to deliver the crew and cargo launch capabilities needed to send human explorers to the Moon and beyond. Ares I and V will provide the core space launch capabilities needed to continue providing crew and cargo access to the International Space Station (ISS), and to build upon the U.S. history of human space exploration. Since 2005, Ares has made substantial progress on designing, developing, and testing the Ares I crew launch vehicle and has continued its in-depth studies of the Ares V cargo launch vehicles. The combined Ares I/Ares V architecture has been designed to reduce the complexity and labor intensity of ground operations for America's next journeys beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO). A deliberate effort is being made to ensure a high level of system operability to significantly increase safety and system availability as well as reduce recurring costs for this new launch vehicle. The Ares Projects goal is to instill operability as part of the vehicles requirements development, design, and operations. This simplicity will come from using simpler, proven engine designs, as in the case of the J-2X upper stage engine and RS-68 engine; improving existing hardware, as in the case of the Shuttle-heritage 5-segment solid rocket motor; and using common propulsion and instrument unit elements between Ares I and Ares V. Furthermore, lessons learned while developing Ares I will be applied directly to Ares V operations. In 2009, the Ares Projects plan to conduct the first flight test of Ares I, designated Ares I-X. Ares I-X preparations have already prompted changes to the vehicle stacking and launch infrastructure at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), including removing Shuttle-specific fixtures from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) to accommodate Ares I-style stacking operations, new firing room computers and infrastructure in the VAB Launch Control Center, and new lightning protection system towers at Launch Complex 39B to accommodate the greater height of Ares I-X. In addition to lessons learned from the stacking of Ares I-X, the flight test itself promises to yield important data and operations lessons for assembling, launching, and flying Ares I.

Cook, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The GOES-R Lightning Mapper Sensor

The Lightning Mapper Sensor on GOES-R builds on previous measurements of lightning from low earth orbit by the OTD (Optical Transient Detector) and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor) sensors. Unlike observations from low earth orbit, the GOES-R platform will allow continuous monitoring of lightning activity over the Continental United States and southern Canada, Central and South America, and portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The LMS will detect total (cloud-to-ground and intracloud) lightning at storm scale resolution (approx. 8 km) using a highly sensitive Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector array. Discrimination between lightning optical transients and a bright sunlit background scene is accomplished by employing spectral, spatial, and temporal filtering along with a background subtraction technique. The result is 24 hour detection capability of total lightning. These total lightning observations can be made available to users within about 20 seconds. Research indicates a number of ways that total lightning observations from LMS could benefit operational activities, including 1) potential increases in lead times and reduced false alarms for severe thunderstorm and tornado Warnings, 2) improved routing of &rail around thunderstorms, 3) support for spacecraft launches and landings, 4) improved ability to monitor tropical cyclone intensity, 5) ability to monitor thunderstorm intensification/weakening during radar outages or where radar coverage is poor, 6) better identification of deep convection for the initialization of numerical prediction models, 7) improved forest fire forecasts, 8) identification of convective initiation, 9) identification of heavy convective snowfall, and 10) enhanced temporal resolution of storm evolution (1 minute) than is available from radar observations. Total lightning data has been used in an operational environment since July 2003 at the Huntsville, Alabama National Weather Service office. Total lightning measurements are obtained by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and have successfully been used in warning decisions. Every 2 minutes, total lightning counts in 2 km by 2 km horizontal, 1 km vertical grids are available to forecasters on an AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) workstation. Experience with the LMA total lightning data is used to illustrate the potential use of LMS data that would be available to forecasters across the US. This abstract is for submission as a presentation to the National Weather Association Annual Meeting to be held 16-21 October 2004 in Portland, OR. This abstract will be published in the conference proceedings.

Buechler, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Development of Solid State Electrolytes for Li-Metal Based High Capacity Battery

NASA future missions demand safe, high specific energy (>400 Wh/kg) batteries. Current state-of-the-art (SOA) lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) can only provide ~150-200 Wh/kg in energy capacity, which is unable to meet NASA's future energy goals, and also pose safety issues due to the use of liquid flammable electrolyte. There are intense on-going development activities to increase battery energy density. The use of Li metal as an anode material has emerged as one highly attractive option for achieving high-energy, next generation batteries. This is because Li has many advantages. It is the lightest metal, but also has the highest theoretical capacity. It also has the lowest potential, which boosts whole cell voltage, and Li metal is 100% active material and requires no binder. Thus, Li metal is an ideal anode material for high energy battery chemistries. Lithium metal based advanced battery chemistries are envisioned to be mission enhancing and, in many cases, mission enabling for future space and aeronautic applications. However, the reliable use of this exceptionally high capacity anode in a commercial rechargeable battery has not been achieved due to safety and reliability concerns resulting from thermal runaway and short-circuit issues due to dendritic growth on the Li metal anode from lithium plating during charge-discharge cycles. A solid state electrolyte, such as garnet/ceramic or solid polymer nanocomposite electrolyte, is a promising approach to make Li metal safely cycling. The solid state electrolyte is non-flammable and eliminates leakage and fire hazard by replacing the liquid flammable electrolyte. However, the low-ionic conductivity and high interfacial impedance are the key issues to be overcome. In this presentation, the research activities on solid state electrolyte development funded by the NASA Advanced Energy Storage System program and by the NASA Center Innovative Fund will be presented, and the progress and results will be also discussed.

Wu, James J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 1: Comparison with 1986 FIRE IFO measurements

We have used a one-dimensional model of cirrus formation to study the development of cirrus clouds during the 1986 First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) intensive field observations (IFO). The cirrus model includes microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes. Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing nucleation, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, coagulation, and vertical transport. We have focused on the cirrus observed on November 1, 1986. Vertical wind speed for the one-dimensional simulation is taken from a mesoscale model simulation for the appropriate time period. The mesoscale model simulation suggested that strong upward motions over Wyoming and subsequent horizontal transport of upper level moisture were responsible for the cirrus observed over Wisconsin on this date. We assumed that our one-dimensional model could be used to represent a vertical column moving from Wyoming to Wisconsin over a period of several hours. Ice crystal nucleation occurs in our model in the 8 to 10-km region as a result of the strong updrafts (and cooling) early in the simulation. Growth, coagulation, and sedimentation of these ice crystals result in a broad cloud region (5-10 km thick) with an optical depth of 1-2 after a few hours, in agreement with the FIRE measurements. Comparison with aircraft microphysical measurements made over Wisconsin indicates that the simulation generated reasonable ice water content, but the predicted ice number densities are too low, especially for radii less than about 50 microns. Sensitivity tests suggest that better agreement between simulated and observed microphysical properties is achieved if the nucleation rate is higher or stronger vertical mixing (perhaps associated with multidimensional motions) is present.

Jensen, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Aerosol Optical Depth Determinations for BOREAS

Automated tracking sun photometers were deployed by NASA/Ames Research Center aboard the NASA C-130 aircraft and at a ground site for all three Intensive Field Campaigns (IFCs) of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) in central Saskatchewan, Canada during the summer of 1994. The sun photometer data were used to derive aerosol optical depths for the total atmospheric column above each instrument. The airborne tracking sun photometer obtained data in both the southern and northern study areas at the surface prior to takeoff, along low altitude runs near the ground tracking sun photometer, during ascents to 6-8 km msl, along remote sensing flightlines at altitude, during descents to the surface, and at the surface after landing. The ground sun photometer obtained data from the shore of Candle Lake in the southern area for all cloud-free times. During the first IFC in May-June ascents and descents of the airborne tracking sun photometer indicated the aerosol optical depths decreased steadily from the surface to 3.5 kni where they leveled out at approximately 0.05 (at 525 nm), well below levels caused by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. On a very clear day, May 31st, surface optical depths measured by either the airborne or ground sun photometers approached those levels (0.06-0.08 at 525 nm), but surface optical depths were often several times higher. On June 4th they increased from 0.12 in the morning to 0.20 in the afternoon with some evidence of brief episodes of pollen bursts. During the second IFC surface aerosol optical depths were variable in the extreme due to smoke from western forest fires. On July 20th the aerosol optical depth at 525 nm decreased from 0.5 in the morning to 0.2 in the afternoon; they decreased still further the next day to 0.05 and remained consistently low throughout the day to provide excellent conditions for several remote sensing missions flown that day. Smoke was heavy for the early morning of July 24th but cleared partially by 10:30 local time and cleared fully by 11:30. Heavy smoke characterized the rest of the IFC in both study areas.

Wrigley, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Windblown Sand on Mars: Results from Single-Particle Experiments

Experiments are investigating the behavior of individual sand grains in the high-energy martian aeolian regime. Energy partitioning during impact of a saltating grain determines grain longevity, but it also influences the way in which the bed becomes mobilized by reptation. When single grains of sand are fired into loose beds, the bed can absorb up to 90% of the impact energy by momentum transfer to other grains; it has been discovered that the impacting grains cause circular craters even at low impact angles. Hundreds of grains can be splashed by a single high-velocity (100 m/s) impact causing more bed disturbance through reptation than previously thought. The research is supported by NASA's PG&G Program. Because the martian aeolian environment in both high energy and of long duration, the most mobile fractions of windblown sand should have eradicated themselves by attrition, unless sand supply has kept pace with destruction. It is therefore important to understand the rate of grain attrition in order to make sense of the existence of vast dune fields on Mars. Attrition, has been addressed in other studies, but precise data for a single saltating grain striking a loose bed of sand have not been acquired -- the quintessential case to be understood for dunes on Mars. To acquire these data, we are employing a compound crossbow which has the bolt-firing mechanism replaced with a pneumatically-automated sabot system. The sabot can launch individual grains of sand of any size between several millimeters and about 50 microns, at velocities up to 100m/s. This is around the maximum velocity expected for saltating grains on Mars. The sabot sled is equipped with photoelectric sensors for measuring shot velocity. Baffling of the grain's exit orifice has enabled projection of single grains without significant aerodynamic effects from the sabot. Grains are fired into loose beds of sand at about 15 degrees from the horizontal (typical saltation trajectory at impact) while being filmed on high-speed video. High-intensity pulse illumination for the grains is triggered by the solenoid-operated bow trigger. A 45 degree mirror over the impact site provides simultaneous horizontal and vertical images of the impact on each video frame. UV fluorescence is enabling grain and grain-fragment recovery. At 100 m/s, grains of all sizes shatter into many fragments when the sand is replaced with a solid target. Kinetic energy of the grains at this velocity exceeds the critical energy for catastrophic failure of minerals. Although probably exceptional as a grain speed, it suggests that conditions on Mars might elevate materials into an attrition regime not encountered on other planets; individual grains blown across rock pavements on Mars will have short lifespans. When experimental grains impact loose (dune) sand, much, if not most of the kinetic energy is converted into momentum of other grains. Using high-speed filming, the energy involved in splashing grains at the impact site can be derived from the size of the crater, the speed of the splashed grains, and the rebound speed of the impactor. The amount of energy partitioned into material failure (as opposed to momentum) is too small a fraction of the total to be calculated under these circumstances. This does not necessarily mean that little damage occurs to the grains (the full extent of the damage has yet to be determined) because only a small fraction of the impact energy is required for inducing brittle fracture. Damage is orders of magnitude less than during impact against solid surfaces.

Marshall, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗