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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Growing Beyond Earth: Student Citizen Science Contributing to Space Crop Production

Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden and NASA have been partnering since 2015 to conduct a citizen science education program for middle and high school students called Growing Beyond Earth (GBE). Growing Beyond Earth is a multi-classroom science project designed to advance NASA’s research on growing plants in space. GBE was implemented locally and scaled nationally under two NASA Grants. Now serving more than 250 schools and over 10,000 middle and high school students nationwide, GBE successfully improved STEM education. It also contributed student-generated data to NASA, improving NASA research on the ground and on ISS, with two student-selected crops grown in space. GBE is unique in its focus on real scientific research, enabling student “citizen scientists” to contribute data toward NASA mission planning. Each classroom receives a Fairchild-designed plant habitat analogous to the plant growing equipment aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Fairchild and NASA scientists train teachers to conduct in-classroom GBE experiments, and students then share experimental data online with NASA. As NASA looks toward a long-term human presence beyond Earth’s orbit, there are specific science, technology, engineering, and math challenges related to food production in space. During this presentation, learn how GBE is addressing those challenges by expanding the diversity and quality of edible plants that can be grown aboard spacecraft. We will share the significant scientific and educational results that have come out of this partnership and explain how we quickly pivoted to allow students to continue to contribute during the COVID-era. Finally, we will explain how on Earth, GBE is also advancing technologies for growing plants in urban, indoor, and other resource-limited settings through the GBE Maker challenge for High School, University, and Professional communities of Makers across the country to develop the next generation of space crop production technologies. These programs are supported by NASA.

Growing Beyond Earth↗

Computational and Experimental Investigation of Thermal-Mechanical- Chemical Mechanisms of High-burnup Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Processes at Elevated Temperatures and Degradation Behavior in Geologic Repositories

The overarching goal of the combined computational and experimental R&D activities proposed in this project is to enhance understanding of the mechanisms and thermal-mechanical-chemical (TMC) parameters controlling the instant release fraction (IRF) and matrix dissolution of high-burnup (HB; burnup) spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) and the subsequent formation, stability, and phase transformations of SNF alteration products under long-term storage and geological disposal conditions. Uranium dioxide may undergo oxidative corrosion/alteration, and the IRF may be increased for HB SNF, both of which may affect environmental systems associated with SNF long-term storage and disposal. The oxidative matrix dissolution may form various complex uranyl-based phases, including a rich variety of oxides, silicates, carbonates and other secondary minerals in varied geological environments (e.g., studtite, metastudtite, amorphous uranyl peroxide, uranium trioxide, triuranium octoxide, schoepite, dehydrated schoepite, metaschoepite, becquerelite, soddyite, rutherfordine,...). These uranyl phases generally have higher mobility UO 2 +2 species than less soluble U 4+ phases. However, limited information on the thermodynamic properties and formation kinetics of these uranyl-bearing phases is available to predict explicitly paragenesis under the conditions relevant to long-term storage or disposal. The proposed project draws on complementary expertise and research backgrounds from the team members: (i) to apply a combined ab initio modeling (UNLV/UTEP and SNL) and experimental (UNLV) strategy investigating the high-temperature TMC mechanisms of alteration of SNF under α-radiolysis conditions; (ii) to investigate the mechanistic of phase transformations in UNF degradation products under various conditions expected in long-term storage systems (e.g. (UO 2 )O 2 (H 2 O) 4 → (UO 2 )O 2 (H 2 O) 2 → U 2 O 7 → UO 3 → U 3 O 8 ); (iii) to determine high-accuracy TMC parameters for complex uranyl-based phases formed in storage or geological disposal environments (e.g. UO 3 (H 2 O) 2 , Ca[(UO 2 ) 6 O 4 (OH) 8 ] 8 H 2 O, (UO 2 ) 2 (SiO 4 ) 3 2H 2 O,…). The unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic led to the laboratory/campus closure since March 2020, that resulted in a significant delay in reaching milestones in a satisfactory manner, due to (i) the statewide recommendation from stop-working to later limited work in the lab and work-from-home (WFH), (ii) no in-person interactions, and (iii) a hiring freeze at UNLV. Therefore, a no cost extension (10/01/2021- 9/30/2022) was requested to help make up the time we lost during the global pandemic in 2020-2021, leading to paradigm shifts in the focus of the project in the following three main tasks: Task 1 (Computational), Task 2 (Experimental), and Task 3 (Final report, due on 12/29/2022).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO x emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultra Long-Lived, Self-Surveying Autonomous Air Quality Sensing

Environmental sensing will be key to autonomous vehicle operation and crew health monitoring in tended/untended long-duration habitats for Human Space Exploration in deep space. Small wireless sensors, based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology, can provide unprecedented capacity to monitor crew/habitat health. We develop a next-generation, path-to-flight wireless air quality sensor capable of operating for years on a small coin-cell battery without crewmember intervention. Initial steps are taken to integrate a self-surveying capability under development as a NASA Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) project, though final integration was prevented due to COVID-19 center closure.

Raymond S Wagner↗

Fusion Materials Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Fiscal Year 2023

The materials science challenge of providing a suite of suitable materials to satisfy the technology to achieve fusion energy is addressed in this ORNL program. The inability of currently available materials and components to withstand the harsh fusion nuclear environment requires development of new materials, and an understanding of their response to the fusion environment. The overarching goal of the ORNL Fusion Materials program is to provide the applied materials science support and materials understanding to underpin the ongoing DOE Office of Science—Fusion Energy Sciences program, in parallel with developing the materials for fusion power systems. In this effort the program continues to be integrated both with the larger U.S. and international fusion materials communities and with the U.S. and international fusion design and technology communities. The excitement of this program comes from the priorities given to this subject in the two recent fusion reviews, by the FESAC and NAS committees. An important element of those recommendations is the support for pivoting the national R&D emphasis to the Fusion Materials and Technologies (FM&T), the long-advocated Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source, and for the Fusion Pilot Plant study that will help focus program direction and efforts. Furthermore, the surge of venture capital investment into the private fusion industry start-ups over the last few years is anticipated to help accelerate all aspects of the fusion energy development. This twelfth annual report of the ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) Fusion Reactor Materials Program summarizes the accomplishments in Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023). The year was the first to return to full post-COVID-restriction operations, with students and international assignees no longer impacted by COVID restrictions, as in FY20-21-22. Following the pattern of planning used in this program, work for the year FY2023 focused on having the data and productivity to support a strong presence at the International Conference on Fusion Reactor Materials (ICFRM) 21, organized by Spain and occurred in October 2023. Twenty-nine ORNL-led abstracts were submitted, with all accepted. Four were invited presentations, nine contributed oral, fourteen posters, and two withdrawn due to unforeseen circumstances. Additionally, nine external abstracts with ORNL contributing authors were presented. These will be reported in the FY24 report next year.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High-Fluence Active Irradiation and Combined Effects Testing of Sapphire Optical Fiber Distributed Temperature Sensors

The goal of this work was to investigate the in-core performance of sapphire optical fiber temperature sensors and to develop clad sapphire optical fibers for in-core instrumentation. We fabricated clad sapphire optical fibers and evaluated the distributed sensing performance of these sensors via optical backscatter reflectometry under high fluence and combined radiation and temperature effects. A series of irradiations was completed to evaluate the effect of irradiation on sapphire optical fiber temperature sensors and to determine the operational limits of these sensors. (1) Objective 1: Fabricate sapphire optical fiber sensors. (2) Objective 2: Evaluate the clad sapphire fiber to verify single-mode behavior and determine and characterize the light modes supported by optical fibers. (3) Objective 3: Characterize the in-core temperature sensing of sapphire optical fiber, as well as the combined temperature and irradiation effects. (4) Objective 4: Evaluate the lifetime and performance of the sensor under irradiation to high neutron fluence. Objectives 1, 2, and 3 were completed during the first 2 years of the project. Due to the Covid pandemic, Objective 4, a high-fluence irradiation performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR), was delayed, as partner facilities were subject to mandatory shutdowns and required a 1 year, no-cost extension. This irradiation was eventually completed on December 12, 2022. This work indicates that sapphire optical fiber sensors may be a solution for ultra-high-temperature applications in which traditional silica optical fibers are prone to fail. Sapphire sensors are potentially suitable for experiments featuring temperatures above 700°C for long periods of time, or for any length of time above 1000°C. Experiments featuring a low total fluence, such as irradiations conducted in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility, also represent good applications for sapphire optical sensors. Additional work is required to characterize the sapphire fiber cladding performance, which falls outside the scope of this project, as well as the effects of high temperatures on the response of the fiber. A comprehensive material study is recommended as future work to evaluate the attenuation in sapphire under irradiation, and how that attenuation changes with irradiation temperature. The drift and attenuation in the fiber at temperatures of up to 1600°C and a total fluence of up to 2.9 x 10 17 n/cm 2 was minimal, and the fibers returned to baseline after being heated to 1600°C under irradiation. This is promising for the future use of sapphire optical fibers in advanced reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A System Approach to Deep Heating Savings Through Measurement, Management, and Motivation

Across multi-tenant commercial office and multifamily buildings, centrally metered fuel use represents a substantial fraction of whole-building energy use. Energy audit practitioners understand that improving heating distribution efficiency is typically more of an opportunity than combustion efficiency and that differing thermal comfort preferences between tenants are the bane of operators across these building typologies. There is an unmet market need for retrofit technologies that allow for the delivery of the right amount of heat to the right spaces, at the right time. The Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) package fills this gap through enhanced controls and metering, incorporating low-cost sensors and wireless communication infrastructure to provide a platform for ongoing commissioning and tenant feedback, including heat cost allocation. With support from the US DOE Building Technologies Office, Steven Winter Associates, Inc. (SWA) partnered with Sentient Buildings, E Source, building owners, and utility and policy stakeholders, to demonstrate a market viable EMIS that achieves a reduction in space heating energy use by reducing heating load, improving control, and positively impacting behavior while providing an acceptable financial return. In this study, EMIS packages were implemented in two New York City multifamily rental buildings. Both buildings conducted basic mechanical work (e.g., repairing steam traps) to ensure the heating system was operating well before any tenant feedback was layered in. Heating Energy Use Reports (HEUR) were created to provide tenants with social comparisons and energy savings tips to influence their behavior; these were provided monthly to all tenants in both buildings. Additionally, one building allocated heating costs to a portion of the tenants. Heat cost allocation (HCA) has a long history in the European Union (EU), although it is not common in the US or in steam-heated buildings. SWA leveraged existing EU best practices and stakeholder feedback to develop a Heat Cost Allocation algorithm that was considered equitable and intuitive. Energy use and tenant behavior impacts were tracked throughout the study. The basic mechanical repair work saved between 11-20% of heating energy. Those savings rose to 17-24% with the addition of tenant feedback. While it may not be possible to precisely determine the impact of COVID-19 on research studies like this, there may have been additional savings realized had the study taken place in a period of normal occupancy patterns. These types of central heating systems have been a blind spot for utilities, who have traditionally had little visibility into detailed behind-the-meter gas usage. Heating energy savings stayed consistent during the coldest months, indicating the potential for utilities to utilize EMIS packages for peak gas demand reductions or demand response programs. Tenant comfort was also improved. Post installation, room temperatures more closely matched thermostat set points. Perhaps due to this greater level of control, the vast majority of tenants being billed for heating were accepting of the allocation costs. And tenants receiving heat cost allocations were more likely to reduce their thermostat setpoints than tenants receiving behavioral feedback without financial impacts were. Variation in building specifics makes it difficult to provide precise energy and financial savings estimates. But within the range of expected conditions, the study identified a few key variables that can have the greatest impact on financial returns: the cost of fuel, the ability and willingness to allocate heating costs to tenants, and a well-functioning heating system as a starting point. This study focused on two multifamily buildings, but additional use cases, such as commercial buildings and affordable housing, should be explored to better understand the full market potential. While this type of upgrade has the potential for deep energy reductions and cost savings, future projects should take into account the balance of costs and benefits between owners and tenants, especially in the affordable, regulated, or other low-to-moderate income (LMI) segments of the market. Rent credits, utility allowances, or a shared savings program are possible options to accelerate adoption of this strategy in these market segments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Structural insights into protection against a SARS-CoV-2 spike variant by T cell receptor diversity

T cells play a crucial role in combatting SARS-CoV-2 and forming long-term memory responses to this coronavirus. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that can evade T cell immunity has raised concerns about vaccine efficacy and the risk of reinfection. Some SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes elicit clonally restricted CD8 + T cell responses characterized by T cell receptors (TCRs) that lack structural diversity. Mutations in such epitopes can lead to loss of recognition by most T cells specific for that epitope, facilitating viral escape. Here, we studied an HLA-A2–restricted spike protein epitope (RLQ) that elicits CD8 + T cell responses in COVID-19 convalescent patients characterized by highly diverse TCRs. We previously reported the structure of an RLQ-specific TCR (RLQ3) with greatly reduced recognition of the most common natural variant of the RLQ epitope (T1006I). Opposite to RLQ3, TCR RLQ7 recognizes T1006I with even higher functional avidity than the WT epitope. To explain the ability of RLQ7, but not RLQ3, to tolerate the T1006I mutation, we determined structures of RLQ7 bound to RLQ–HLA-A2 and T1006I–HLA-A2. These complexes show that there are multiple structural solutions to recognizing RLQ and thereby generating a clonally diverse T cell response to this epitope that assures protection against viral escape and T cell clonal loss.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Propellant Delivery via VDC Driven Pump

The SMART (Scalable Mobile Autonomous Rocket engine Test) testbed system initiative at SSC was conceived to attempt to address many of the principal cost drivers in developing and maintaining a rocket engine test facility. The system (optimized to test engines and components generating up to 10K lbf nominal thrust) is serving as a testbed for innovative technologies and processes to provide lower cost test services with a rapid test cadence and expedient turnaround times. The system can also potentially be used as a testbed to test other related technologies relevant to surface situations (e.g., moon, Mars associated with crogenic fluid management, engine/component testing, autonomous operations, etc.). This FY20 CIF project, being conducted as part of the SMART testbed system, is developing and testing a propellant delivery system via electrically driven centrifugal pumps (obviating dependence upon Multi-Layer Pressure Vessels) with configuration and operation by a minimal number of personnel. During FY20 the team identified the requirements and worked with P3 and Masten Space Systems to develop the long lead (9 months after receipt of order) items, the 400 VDC pumps, for delivery in mid FY21. Since control of the 400 VDC pump motor is not well developed the team has established heuristics to control flows in LN2 at off nominal shaft speeds to allow deep throttling of the pump in flow test scenarios. Various test scenarios including nominal i.e. high flow high pressure, high flow low pressure, low flow high pressure, low flow low pressure, minimum throttle step change, and low inlet pressure cavitation testing were developed ahead of the anticipated hardware delivery and test. FY20 COVID Stage 3 conditions restricted access to the center and hindered lab work, so efforts focused on the system design and testing plans along with the project procurement paperwork for the hardware... now with its anticipated delivery in spring FY21. Some limited access to the center is expected by spring/summer FY21 for the continuing second year (FY21) CIF project effort meant to be focused upon system integration and initial testing.

Aaron Head↗

Akiachak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project

The goal of the project is to reduce the overall energy use of the Akiachak Native Community (ANC) by implementing energy efficiency measures in five high-use Tribal buildings. This project will have the following outcomes: Projected annual energy savings of $17,369; projected annual reduction in fuel oil #1 of 1,200 gallons and electricity of 17,751 kWh; annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 60,340 pounds/year. ANC will install energy efficiency measures in the Laundry, Tribal Indian Reorganization Act (IRA) Office, Clinic, Daycare, and Police Station. ANC obtained energy audits on these buildings in 2018, and this project will implement high-payback recommendations such as replacing lighting with LEDs, installing setback thermostats and occupancy sensors, replacing furnaces with more efficient models, replacing the circulation pumps with variable speed ones, air tightening, and adding insulation. Buildings will see energy cost reductions from 15% to 40%. These retrofits will help build ANC’s long-term vision for sustainable energy usage and address the first goal of the Tribal IRA Council’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, to “create and maintain functionally appropriate, sustainable, accessible, high quality tribal infrastructure and facilities.” ANC intends to replicate this project by using the resulting energy savings to address audit recommendations in other buildings as well as to demonstrate the value of energy efficiency to community members. Other outcomes will include an increase in community resiliency, reduced dependence on outside shipments of fuel oil, training for maintenance staff, and no-touch control of building appliances to reduce transmission of diseases such as COVID-19.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Herpesviruses in Saliva and Their Clinical Significance

Saliva has been used as a source of biological markers for a wide spectrum of normal and disease states for a long time. It is a non-invasive, easily accessible, and self-collected body fluid that contains a variety of measurable biological substances. While mostly water, saliva also contains ions, carbohydrates, proteins and peptides, exfoliated cells, nucleic acids, and microorganisms. Saliva can reflect tissue levels of some natural substances and a large variety of molecules introduced for therapeutic use, emotional status; hormonal status, immunological status, neurological effects, and nutritional and metabolic status. It can also be used to monitor a variety of drugs including marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol. It is the most cost-effective approach for screening large population in community mass screening programs and for longitudinal sampling of hospitalized individuals aimed at monitoring viral load dynamics and treatment response. During the COVID-19 pandemic, scientific evidence emerged indicating that molecular tests performed on saliva have diagnostic sensitivity and specificity comparable to those observed with nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. The presence of IgA and IgG antibodies at the mucosal level has been demonstrated to influence the progression of viral infection and the severity of clinical manifestation. As saliva contains both respiratory secretions and immunological components, it has wide applications, ranging from clinical diagnostics to post-vaccine disease burden and immunity surveillance.

Douglass Diak↗

Hazards of Lunar Surface Exploration: Determining the Immunogenicity/Allergenicity of Lunar Dust

There are multiple Apollo program reports of lunar dust (LD) exposure leading to significant upper respiratory symptoms in select crewmembers. Possible mechanisms include particulate irritation, oxidization and release of noxious gas, or legitimate adaptive immune-mediated response. Although sterile non-protein matter would not be expected to be an allergen, one Apollo flight surgeon reported increasing symptoms upon repeated exposure, with associated eosinophilia indicative of allergy (*Acta Astronautica. 2008 63 (7–10): 980–987). Many ISS crews display a pattern of persistent immune system dysregulation and latent virus reactivation (NPJ Microgravity. 2015 Sep 3; 1:15013; NPJ Microgravity. 2017 Apr 12; 3:11). Some ISS crews manifest atypical respiratory and/or dermatitis symptoms which could have an allergic pathogenesis (J Allergy Clin. Immunol. Pract. 2016 Jul-Aug; 4(4):759-762.e8). It is logical to anticipate crew immune dysregulation would worsen during prolonged deep space missions. Planetary surface hazards will only complicate crew health risks. This study hypothesizes that LD exposure can alter susceptible individuals’ immune responses such that repeated exposure will elicit an IgE mediated allergic response either to the LD itself or concomitant antigen exposure during spaceflight. This will adversely increase clinical and operational impacts for long-duration lunar astronauts and affect countermeasure requirements for surface vehicles. Specific aims for this study are (1) Does in vitro LD exposure result in increased histamine from human peripheral blood basophils? (2) Can LD impact the capacity of CD4+ helper and/or CD19+ B-cell mediated IgE production? To address these questions, a set of in-vitro cell culture experiments will be employed (short and long term) using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and basophils from both atopic and non-atopic individuals, as well as established human basophil and mast cell lines. Cells will be co-cultured with cellular mitogens, common recall antigens (tetanus, Der p1), nickel (as a possible allergenic component of LD), with or without graded amounts of LD, to study whether LD exposure for varying time intervals will alter the generation of selective immune responses associated with clinical allergic reactions. Measured outputs include supernatant-derived IgE, tryptase, histamine and selected cytokine levels. Cellular activation will be monitored by assessing activation markers via flow cytometry. EM/x-ray analysis will be used to determine cellular interactions with dust particles. The minimal amount of LD (Apollo 14 dust) and controls/simulants have been requested. This study, originally planned as an FY20/21 activity, was delayed due to the COVID pandemic. It is now scheduled to be performed during FY22.

Brian Crucian↗

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

Evolutionary Game and Simulation Research of Blockchain-Based Co-Governance of Emergency Supply Allocation

Recently, with the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, emergency supply allocation system is drawing more and more social attention. Emergency supply allocation system is an important part of emergency governance system. It reflects social organizations’ credibility, public safety, and the modernization level of social governance. However, emergency supply allocation system still has some problems, such as information asymmetry, different desires of participants, unreasonable allocation, and so on. At present, it is widely accepted that the advantage of blockchain in co-governance could be of great help in solving above problems. And in order to distinguish the effect of blockchain to the emergency supply allocation, the paper builds a tripartite evolutionary game model among the government, social organizations, and the public to analyse the impact of blockchain platform on emergency supply allocation. The simulation analysis shows the following: (1) The strategy choices of the government have a crucial impact on the evolution and stability of social organizations’ strategies. It needs a long-term process to guide social organizations practicing active allocation, and the government should accelerate to build the blockchain platform to promote this process. (2) With the help of blockchain platform, the increment of penalty intensity of the government is conductive to increasing the probabilities that social organizations practice active allocation and the government practices strict supervision. (3) Blockchain platform has a significant impact on social organizations’ choice for active allocation in many aspects, such as the positive and negative effects of social organizations, effect’s increasing multiple, and the cost of the public informing. In the end, some suggestions are presented to improve the co-governance of emergency supply allocation.

Zhao, Huawei↗