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At least 55 records · Page 3

Short-term nodal load forecasting based on machine learning techniques

This paper introduces an advanced Short-term Nodal Load Forecasting (STNLF) method that forecasts nodal load profiles for the next day in power systems, based on the combined use of three machine learning techniques. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) is employed to reduce the number of features for a single nodal load forecasting. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to capture the features of historical loads in low-dimensional space compared to the original high-dimensional load space where features are barely possible to depict. Additionally, Bayesian Ridge Regression (BRR) is utilized to decide the parameters of the prediction model from a statistics perspective. Tests based on modified PJM load data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed STNLF method compared to the state-of-the-art General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method. Moreover, the reliability of the day-ahead Unit Commitment (UC) solution is shown to have been improved, based on the forecasted load data using the proposed STNLF method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reliability‐based layout optimization in offshore wind energy systems

Abstract Existing methods for optimizing wind array layouts typically use power or cost objectives and rarely consider reliability‐based objectives. Component and system failure rates, however, are dependent on location‐specific wind conditions, are influenced by array layout and wake interactions, and have a direct and significant impact on capital costs, operational costs, and power production. Although wind power plant models exist that calculate wind loads with sufficient resolution to capture component loading dynamics from wind conditions, they are computationally expensive and thus not suitable for research applications requiring many evaluations, particularly optimization. This study describes the development of computationally efficient, reliability‐based layout optimization methods, enabling us to explore the relationship between component reliability and layout optimization. These methods include the surrogate modeling of the planet bearing life based on varying wind conditions simulated in FAST.Farm and the formulation of reliability‐based objectives based on failure cost and power production models. Through demonstration of this method, we explore how wind conditions, objective functions, and capacity density influence reliability‐based layout optimization. Results indicate that considering reliability alongside power production can reduce failure costs associated with replacement costs and downtime while maintaining or improving power production. Our conclusions highlight the opportunity for wind power plant developers to integrate reliability and operational expenditures alongside performance and capital expenditure objectives in plant design and development to improve plant performance and costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Collective Analysis of Alpha Particle Losses Due to Self-Absorption by Mass Loading on Radioactive Particulate Glass Fiber Filters

In this study, we derived a relationship between filter mass loading and the percent loss during analysis using the mass loading data collected from six previous studies of self-absorption. Components of mass loading include particulate dust, radioactive particulates, and filter material. In a research report published in 1984, Higby calculated a minimum burial depth for an alpha particle to be lost due to absorption (100% loss) of about 3.7 mg/cm 2 based on calculations for the range of 239-Pu alpha particles in glass fiber filters. From there, Higby concluded that a correction factor of 0.85 assumes approximately 15% losses in the count rate of both alpha and beta particles. In 2000, Luetzelschwab et al. recommended assuming a 40% loss at a loading of 3.3 mg/cm 2 and a 28% loss for a loading of 2.3 mg/cm 2 which included the frontal face mass of the filter. More recently, the 100% losses due to absorption were reported to be in the 10 mg/cm 2 range. Presented here is a trinomial relationship method of relating percent loss due to self-absorption to filter mass loading, based on data reported by Higby, Luetzelschwab et al., Huang et al., Barnett et al., Smith et al., and Hogue et al. Under normal operating conditions at the stacks monitored by Effluent Management, the mass loading of sample filters averages 0.09 ± 0.12 (2s) mg/cm 2 (excluding negative values and outliers) and ranges from 0 mg/cm 2 to 0.24 mg/cm 2 . Based on current mass loading results for Effluent Management stack sample filters, the forced-zero trinomial relationship method estimated self-absorption losses of less than 5%. Because American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society N13.1-2011 guidelines indicate a correction factor should be used when the penetration of radioactive material into the collection media or self-absorption of radiation by the material collected would reduce the count rate by more than 5%, it is possible continued application of a correction factor to the Effluent Management stack samples is no longer necessary. Nevertheless, continuing to assign a correction factor at the 5% threshold (i.e., 0.95) would be a conservative approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sample problems for Section III, Division 5 design by inelastic analysis of Grade 91 components

This report works through two sample design analyses of representative Grade 91 components using the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5, Appendix HBB-T rules for the strain and deformation and creep-fatigue design criteria using a design by inelastic analysis approach. The component geometries and loadings were selected to span a wide variety of potential applications. The sample components are an endplate geometry, which is fairly representative of typical pressure vessel construction, and a core block, representing a critical component in a heat pipe microreactor, which has a complicated geometry and complex thermal stress history. These sample problems serve several functions. First, they are complete worked examples of how to apply the current design by inelastic analysis rules. Second, they serve as test cases to evaluate the current rules and provide feedback on how they could be optimized to deal with complicated component geometries or to be better automated in modern finite element analysis software. Finally, the analysis here uses an inelastic constitutive model for Grade 91 developed by Argonne National Laboratory and proposed for inclusion in the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules as a reference constitutive model. Using this constitutive model in the sample problem analyses tests the model in the context of the ASME Code rules. The final conclusions of this report are that the material model and the current Code rules are satisfactory, but that the Code rules could be optimized to simplify automation and reduce over conservatism. Future work should address the specific optimization topics discussed in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Component-Level Analysis of Heating and Cooling Loads in the U.S. Residential Building Stock

The residential building sector accounts for a substantial portion of total energy consumption in the United States and offers a significant opportunity for energy reduction and decarbonization through improvements in energy efficiency. Heating and air conditioning are the primary contributors to residential energy usage and electricity system peak demand. However, due to the diversity of the housing stock and the complexity of factors affecting heating and cooling demand, identifying the relative contributions to heating and cooling loads poses challenges. To address this, we applied the ResStock analysis tool to simulate 550,000 building energy models, providing statistical representation of residential buildings in the contiguous United States. We introduced outputs that quantified the heating and cooling influence of different components of a home, such as air leakage, envelope components (ceilings, walls, windows, foundations), internal heat gains from people, lighting, plug loads, and duct losses and gains. Leveraging the granularity of ResStock, we present a dataset to enable deeper understanding of the contributors to heating and cooling loads as a function of housing characteristics such as location, envelope efficiency, and building type. This work aims to support prioritization of research and development and informed decision-making for residential building decarbonization.

building simulation↗

Thermohydraulic Design Analysis of the Target Assembly in the Material Plasma Exposure Experiment Facility

The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) project seeks to design a steady-state linear plasma facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory that will be used to study plasma-material interactions (PMIs) at fusion prototypic levels, supporting the evaluation and development of materials for the next generation of fusion devices. This study is focused on PMI exposure of small-size neutron-irradiated specimens, which are clamped onto an actively cooled component. A thermohydraulic evaluation of a new MPEX target assembly design to assess the appropriate operation during MPEX operation is presented. To further guide the design and assess the structural integrity of the components under expected loads, preliminary thermomechanical stress analyses were also conducted. To ensure good thermal contact between the components, thermal interface materials, such as silver flexible graphite, were used in the assembly. It was found that the maximum target temperatures of 1572, 1463, and 1315 K were obtained for Grafoil thicknesses of 0.61, 0.38, and 0.25 mm, respectively. The distribution of the axial deformation at high heat fluxes showed that there are no gaps between components, indicating good contact at material interfaces. Moreover, the contact pressure between the target and other components indicated that very good contact was established at these interfaces. Furthermore, the stress-strain conditions for the target will be further used to assess the appropriate operation during MPEX experiments and gain insight into materials science phenomena during PMI experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DC compensation for power transformer through neutral DC injection

A power transmission system can include a transformer and compensator circuit(s), each coupled between a node of the transformer and a ground connection. The compensator circuit(s) can each be configured to counteract a DC signal component of an AC signal at the transformer. The compensator circuit(s) can include a converter circuit having an AC side and a DC side and configured to convert a DC voltage on the DC side to an AC signal at the AC side. The compensator circuit(s) can include a DC link coupled to the DC side of the converter circuit. The compensator circuit(s) can include a controller configured to measure a DC signal component between the load and the ground; to determine, based at least in part on the DC signal component, a compensating signal configured to counteract the DC signal component; and to inject, by the converter circuit, the compensating signal to counteract the DC signal component.

Burkes, Klaehn W.↗

Self-welding of Inconel 617 under high-pressure-high-temperature conditions for nuclear reactors

In response to continuously declining availability of fossil fuels, nuclear power has become an important alternative source of power generation. Growing application of nuclear power has relieved the shortage of electricity. However, it is also accompanied with new drawbacks, such as radioactive waste, and potential catastrophic consequences in case of major accidents. For nuclear power plants, severe accidents mostly originate from the reactor, making the reliability of the reactor of paramount importance to the overall safety of a nuclear power plant. Massive heat generation through nuclear fission/fusion and heat exchange render the whole reactor operating at extremely high temperatures (i.e., 900–1000 °C), which, in conjunction with large load from subsystems/ components made of special heavy alloys, renders the reactor under the risk of self-welding, a phenomenon that could lead to strong bonding between components and paralyze the operability of the nuclear reactor. This paper investigates the self-welding behavior of Inconel 617, a primary candidate nickel alloy for key components of the next generation gas cooled nuclear plant, inside a controlled atmospheric furnace with preset static load, simulating the high-pressure high-temperature conditions inside nuclear reactors. Therefore, test results show that Inconel 617 experiences self-welding through common oxide zone at the interface, and it has remarkable bonding strength, requiring 4114 N (57.15 MPa) and 4338 N (60.25 MPa) to break apart a mated sample pair, under an apparent contact pressure of 0.341 MPa after 50-h aging, in helium and air atmospheres, respectively. The higher oxygen presence in air results in slightly stronger oxide bond at the interface, compared to helium, and the bond strength increases with dwell time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations of an idealized coaxial impedance-matched Marx generator

We have conducted 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations of an idealized coaxial impedance-matched Marx generator (IMG) []. The 0D calculations were conducted with a four-element circuit model; the 1D, 2D, and 3D calculations were conducted with highly resolved, fully electromagnetic representations. The IMG consists of 30 stages distributed axially and connected electrically in series. Each stage is powered by two bricks separated by 180° and connected electrically in parallel. Each brick comprises two opposite-polarity capacitors in series with a single switch. The bricks drive an internal impedance-matched coaxial transmission line terminated by a resistive load. The simulations neglect effects due to the switch-triggering circuit, the capacitor-charging circuit, external conducting boundaries, and reactive components of the load. We find dimensionality does not significantly affect the electrical power delivered by the IMG to its load: peak load powers estimated by the 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations agree to within 1%. The 3D calculations demonstrate that electromagnetic power radiated by the bricks, and axial gaps between stages, reduces the peak load power by less than ∼ 1 % . Each simulation assumes the load impedance is 34% above that at which the load power is maximized. Operating an IMG with such an overmatched load offers several advantages while decreasing the peak load power by only 2%. The 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D models outlined herein could be adapted to assess computationally competing IMG designs, and conduct a variety of numerical IMG experiments, an IMG is constructed. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Modeling the TetraSpar Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Foundation as a Flexible Structure in OrcaFlex and OpenFAST

Floating offshore wind turbine technology has seen an increasing and continuous development in recent years. When designing the floating platforms, both experimental and numerical tools are applied, with the latter often using time-domain solvers based on hydro-load estimation from a Morison approach or a boundary element method. Commercial software packages such as OrcaFlex, or open-source software such as OpenFAST, are often used where the floater is modeled as a rigid six degree-of-freedom body with loads applied at the center of gravity. However, for final structural design, it is necessary to have information on the distribution of loads over the entire body and to know local internal loads in each component. This paper uses the TetraSpar floating offshore wind turbine design as a case study to examine new modeling approaches in OrcaFlex and OpenFAST that provide this information. The study proves the possibility of applying the approach and the extraction of internal loads, while also presenting an initial code-to-code verification between OrcaFlex and OpenFAST. As can be expected, comparing the flexible model to a rigid-body model proves how motion and loads are affected by the flexibility of the structure. OrcaFlex and OpenFAST generally agree, but there are some differences in results due to different modeling approaches. Since no experimental data are available in the study, this paper only forms a baseline for future studies but still proves and describes the possibilities of the approach and codes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Scalable, Infiltration-Free Ceramic Matrix Composite (SIF-CMC) manufacturing for Molten Salt Receiver: Investigation of particle-loaded preceramic resin

Due to their unique combination of high temperature, corrosion resistance, and toughness, Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) are the optimal materials to be used in the next generation of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), which will operate at working temperatures up to 800 °C. However, today, CMC is too costly to be used in CSP applications due to its complex manufacturing process based on repeated infiltration-pyrolysis cycles. To solve this issue, PARC is developing a scalable, infiltration-free method (SIF) to manufacture CMC, which can reduce the production cost, increase batch consistency, and leverage all of the intrinsic advantages of current CMCs. The key to the SIF method is using a flowable preceramic resin with high loading of functional components. The formulation impregnates the fiber during curing and leads to high-density, low-shrinkage parts upon pyrolysis. In this paper, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept of the SIF process and report the relationships between key process parameters in the manufacturing process: functional material loading in the resin vs. resin’s flowability and morphology changes upon pyrolysis.

ceramic matrix composite, concentrated solar power↗

New proposed ITER divertor design using carbon insert on tungsten to mitigate ELMs and secondary radiation effects on nearby components

Abstract Building a successful device for the magnetic fusion energy production is a great challenge. ITER is an international project of the tokamak based magnetic fusion design being developed for the demonstration of the feasibility of thermonuclear technologies for future realization of successful commercial fusion energy. A key obstacle to a successful magnetic fusion energy production is however, the performance during abnormal events including plasma disruptions and edge-localized modes (ELMs). A credible reactor design must tolerate at least a few of these transient events without serious consequences such as melting of the structure. This paper investigates and compares the performance of the current ITER tokamak design during two types of transient events, i.e., ELMs occurring at normal operation and disruptions during abnormal operation. We simulated the divertor components response using our integrated 3D HEIGHTS package. The simulations include self-consistent modeling of the interaction of the released core plasma particles with the initial solid divertor material, energy deposition processes, vaporization of divertor material, secondary plasma formation and MHD evolution, incident core particles collisions and scattering from this dense secondary plasma, photon radiation of secondary plasma, and the resulting heat loads on nearby components. Our simulations showed that using a small carbon insert around the strike point can significantly reduce the overall expected damage on the tungsten dome structure, reflector plates, and prevent tungsten vaporization and its potential core plasma contamination.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Factors and Considerations for Modeling Loss of a GaN-based Inverter

The article investigates the impacts of four often-neglected factors on the loss model of a GaN-based full-bridge inverter: parasitic capacitance of the devices, dynamics of junction temperature (Tj) under time-varying power dissipation (Ploss), case temperature estimation, and detailed considerations of the passive components. Procedures to calculate the converter loss considering the above factors are proposed and implemented. A 4.5-kW hard-switching inverter prototype using gallium nitrite (GaN) high-electron-mobility transistors is used to experimentally demonstrate the impact of each factor on the converter loss model. Furthermore, it is found that the accuracy of a converter loss model is mainly affected by the passive components at the light load condition, whereas the thermal and loss models of the active components become the major factors as the output power increases. The results show that after considering the above factors, the converter loss discrepancy between calculation and measurement can be reduced from 30.6 W (28%) to 2.5 W (less than 3%) at heavy load (Po = 4.5 kW), while at the light load condition (Po = 500 W), it is reduced from 3.9 W (28%) to 2.6 W (16%). Furthermore, the difference between simulated and measured case temperature of the GaN devices is within 6 °C.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A ray-tracing algorithm for ab-initio calculation of thermal load in undulator-based synchrotron beamlines

The OASYS suite and its powerful integration features are used to implement a ray-tracing algorithm to accurately calculate the thermal load in any component of an undulator-based synchrotron beamline. This is achieved by sampling and converting the SRW source of a given energy into a Shadow source and using the latter code to ray trace the full beamline. The accuracy of the algorithm is proved by reconstructing the full undulator radiation distribution through an aperture and comparing the result with direct calculaton of the total power using SRW. The algorithm is particularly suited to analyze cases with complex beamline layouts and optical elements, such as crystals, multilayers, and compound refractive lenses. Examples of its use to calculate the power load on elements of two of the feature beamlines at the Advanced Photon Source Upgrade Project and a comparison of the results with analytical calculations are presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Toward control co-design of utility-scale wind turbines: Collective vs. individual blade pitch control

A large-eddy simulation framework has been coupled with controller modules to systematically investigate the impacts of collective (CPC) and individual (IPC) pitch control strategies on utility-scale wind turbine energy production and fatigue loads. Wind turbine components were parameterized using an actuator surface model to simulate the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle. The baseline CPC and IPC algorithms, consisting of single-input single-output proportional–integral controllers and two integral controllers, respectively, were incorporated into the numerical framework. A series of simulations were carried out to investigate the relative performance of the two controllers under various turbulent inflow conditions, spanning hub-height velocities of 7 to 14 m/s. The numerical simulation results of this study showed that, in comparison to the CPC, the IPC controller could successfully reduce the damage equivalent loads of utility-scale turbines at regions 2 and 3 of turbine operation by about 3% and 40%, respectively, without any penalty on the power production of the turbine. It was also shown that, despite its minor impact on the turbulence kinetic energy of the wake, the IPC controller did not influence the recovery of the turbine wake.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

3D ion gyro-orbit heat load predictions for NSTX-U

Abstract High power tokamaks operate with divertor heat loads capable of destroying the plasma facing components (PFCs). High fidelity heat load predictions are necessary to ascertain the PFC state for design and during operation. Typical heat flux calculations are 2D, time invariant, and assume that power flows directly along the magnetic field lines (the optical approximation). These assumptions neglect the complex 3D geometries employed to protect the PFCs, the time varying nature of the plasma and PFC thermal state, and the helical trajectories of ions with finite Larmor radii (the gyro-orbit approximation). An integrated software framework, the heat flux engineering analysis toolkit (HEAT), was developed to generate time varying optical heat loads applied to real engineering computer aided design (CAD) (Looby et al 2022 Fusion Sci. Technol. 78 10–27). Recently, an ion-gyro orbit module has been added to HEAT. This module calculates the helical trajectories of ions as they gyrate about the magnetic field lines using kinetic theory macro-particles to accelerate the calculation. First, the new gyro-orbit module will be presented. Next, a comparison to existing research is performed. Finally, an analysis of the gyro-orbit heat loads for NSTX-U is presented for diverted discharges using the engineering CAD models utilized for PFC fabrication. Including these gyro-orbit effects can enhance the PFC performance by ‘smearing’ out the magnetic shadows associated with the castellated fish-scaled geometry. Simultaneously, the helical trajectories can degrade performance when they load narrow regions on edges and corners with high heat fluxes. Analysis of the trade-offs between these competing effects is included, and regions for further investigation are identified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Shear Strength and Release of Large Cryogenic Pellets from the Barrel of a Shattered Pellet Injector for Disruption Mitigation

Shattered pellet injection (SPI) has been chosen as the baseline disruption mitigation system on ITER due to its ability to rapidly inject material deep into the plasma to greatly increase the plasma density and radiate the thermal energy. SPI utilizes a mechanical punch or high-pressure gas to release and accelerate a pellet that has been cryogenically desublimated in the barrel of a pipe gun. Various material injection combinations could possibly be implemented during different phases of a disruption event to radiate plasma energy, reduce electromagnetic loads on machine components, avoid the formation of runaway electrons, or to dissipate runaway electrons that form. Each injection phase could possibly utilize combinations of deuterium, neon, or argon. In this paper we outline experimental measurements of pellet material shear strength at SPI operating temperatures to understand the force needed to release SPI pellets. Deuterium, neon, argon, and deuterium-neon mixture pellets with diameters of 8.5, 12.5, and 15.7 mm are formed at a range of relevant gas pressures and temperatures and dislodged from the cold zone with a slow-moving piston driven by a motor. The slow-moving piston is kept above the triple point temperature of the material while the pellet is forming, then cooled to below the triple point temperature before contacting the pellet to minimize any thermal conduction to the pellet. The piston incorporates a load cell to measure the force applied when the pellet breaks away from the cold zone in the barrel.The ability of the gas and punch methods to exceed the shear strength of the studied pellet materials for release has been analyzed. High pressure gas delivered by fast opening valves produce pressure shock to the pellet due to supersonic expansion of the propellant gas. Pressure (and therefore, force) oscillations are present due to transverse density propagation throughout the breech volume. Mechanical punches deliver an impact force through a high-kinetic energy impact. The effect of the mechanical shock on the pellet has been explored and will be presented in this paper. Scaling to larger ITER size SPI pellets will be described.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Accurate Effective Stress Measures: Predicting Creep Life for 3D Stresses Using 2D and 1D Creep Rupture Simulations and Data

Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗