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DOE OSTI2026

MTRE

Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE) is a lightweight, white-box hallucination detector for vision-language models. Instead of using only the first output token, MTRE aggregates logits from the first ~10 tokens and feeds them to a small attention-based reliability head; per-token scores are combined via a sequential log-likelihood-ratio test with early-stopping, and an MTRE-t variant calibrates thresholds via cross-fitting. MTRE reports average gains of +9.4% Accuracy and +14.8% AUROC over common baselines across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and arithmetic/counting tasks, while adding ~4.3M params and ~1% inference overhead (~26 MB VRAM, ~0.94 ms per detection). Key limitation: requires access to early token logits and is evaluated on a handful of open-source 7B VLMs.

Bhattarai, Manish [Los Alamos National Labs]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1 , a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

First Constraints on WIMP-Nucleon Effective Field Theory Couplings in an Extended Energy Region From LUX-ZEPLIN

Following the first science results of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment, a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating from the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA, we report the initial limits on a model-independent non-relativistic effective field theory describing the complete set of possible interactions of a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with a nucleon. These results utilize the same 5.5 t fiducial mass and 60 live days of exposure collected for the LZ spin-independent and spin-dependent analyses while extending the upper limit of the energy region of interest by a factor of 7.5 to 270~keV. No significant excess in this high energy region is observed. Using a profile-likelihood ratio analysis, we report 90% confidence level exclusion limits on the coupling of each individual non-relativistic WIMP-nucleon operators for both elastic and inelastic interactions in the isoscalar and isovector bases.

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DOE OSTI2024

Constraints On Covariant WIMP-Nucleon Effective Field Theory Interactions from the First Science Run of the LUX-ZEPLIN Experiment

The first science run of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment, a dual-phase xenon time project chamber operating in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, USA, has reported leading limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon interactions and interactions described from a non-relativistic effective field theory (NREFT). Using the same 5.5~t fiducial mass and 60 live days of exposure we report on the results of a relativistic extension to the NREFT. We present constraints on couplings from covariant interactions arising from the coupling of vector, axial currents, and electric dipole moments of the nucleon to the magnetic and electric dipole moments of the WIMP which cannot be described by recasting previous results described by an NREFT. Using a profile-likelihood ratio analysis, in an energy region between 0~keV_{nr} to 270~keV_{nr}, we report 90% confidence level exclusion limits on the coupling strength of five interactions in both the isoscalar and isovector bases. .

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DOE OSTI2026

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark Matter Constraints from a Unified Analysis of Strong Gravitational Lenses and Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

Joint analyses of small-scale cosmological structure probes have been relatively unexplored yet promise to advance measurements of microphysical dark matter properties using heterogeneous data. Here, we present a multidimensional analysis of dark matter substructure using strong gravitational lenses and the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population, accounting for degeneracies in model predictions and using covariances in the constraining power of these individual probes for the first time. We simultaneously infer the projected subhalo number density and the half-mode mass describing the suppression of the subhalo mass function in thermal relic warm dark matter (WDM), $M_{\mathrm{hm}}$, using the semianalytic model \texttt{Galacticus} to connect the subhalo population inferred from MW satellite observations to the strong lensing host halo mass and redshift regime. Combining MW satellite and strong lensing posteriors in this parameter space yields $M_{\mathrm{hm}}<10^{7.0}\ M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ (WDM particle mass $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}>9.7\ \mathrm{keV}$) at $95\%$ confidence and disfavors $M_{\mathrm{hm}}=10^{7.4}\ M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ ($m_{\mathrm{WDM}}=7.4\ \mathrm{keV}$) with a 20:1 marginal likelihood ratio, improving limits on $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}$ set by the two methods independently by $\sim 30\%$. These results are marginalized over the line-of-sight contribution to the strong lensing signal, the mass of the MW host halo, and the efficiency of subhalo disruption due to baryons and are robust to differences in the disruption efficiency between the MW and strong lensing regimes at the $\sim 10\%$ level. This work paves the way for unified analyses of next-generation small-scale structure measurements covering a wide range of scales and redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of Cosmological 21 cm Emission with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment

We present a detection of 21 cm emission from large-scale structure (LSS) between redshift 0.78 and 1.43 made with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment. Radio observations acquired over 102 nights are used to construct maps that are foreground filtered and stacked on the angular and spectral locations of luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars (QSOs) from the eBOSS clustering catalogs. We find decisive evidence for a detection when stacking on all three tracers of LSS, with the logarithm of the Bayes factor equal to 18.9 (LRG), 10.8 (ELG), and 56.3 (QSO). An alternative frequentist interpretation, based on the likelihood ratio test, yields a detection significance of 7.1σ (LRG), 5.7σ (ELG), and 11.1σ (QSO). These are the first 21 cm intensity mapping measurements made with an interferometer. We constrain the effective clustering amplitude of neutral hydrogen (H I ), defined as ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\equiv {10}^{3}\,{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\left({b}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}+\langle \,f{\mu }^{2}\rangle \right)$, where Ω H I is the cosmic abundance of H I , b H I is the linear bias of H I , and $\langle$fμ 2 $\rangle$ = 0.552 encodes the effect of redshift-space distortions at linear order. We find ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.51}_{-0.97}^{+3.60}$ for LRGs (z = 0.84), ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={6.76}_{-3.79}^{+9.04}$ for ELGs (z = 0.96), and ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.68}_{-0.67}^{+1.10}$ for QSOs (z = 1.20), with constraints limited by modeling uncertainties at nonlinear scales. We are also sensitive to bias in the spectroscopic redshifts of each tracer, and we find a nonzero bias Δ v = - 66 ± 20 km s -1 for the QSOs. We split the QSO catalog into three redshift bins and have a decisive detection in each, with the upper bin at z = 1.30 producing the highest-redshift 21 cm intensity mapping measurement thus far.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limits on Leptonic TeV Emission from the Cygnus Cocoon with Swift-XRT

$\gamma$-ray observations of the Cygnus Cocoon, an extended source surrounding the Cygnus X star-forming region, suggest the presence of a cosmic ray accelerator reaching energies up to a few PeV. The very-high-energy (VHE; 0.1-100~TeV) $\gamma$-ray emission may be explained by the interaction of cosmic-ray hadrons with matter inside the Cocoon, but an origin of inverse Compton radiation by relativistic electrons cannot be ruled out. Inverse Compton $\gamma$-rays at VHE are accompanied by synchrotron radiation peaked in X-rays. Hence, X-ray observations may probe the electron population and magnetic field of the source. We observed eleven fields in or near the Cygnus Cocoon with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory's X-Ray Telescope (Swift-XRT) totaling 110 ksec. We fit the fields to a Galactic and extra-galactic background model and performed a log-likelihood ratio test for an additional diffuse component. We found no significant additional emission and established upper limits in each field. By assuming that the X-ray intensity traces the TeV intensity and follows an dN/dE ∝ E -2.5 spectrum, we obtained a 90% upper limit of F X < 8.7 x 10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 or 5.2 x10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 on the X-ray flux of the entire Cygnus Cocoon between 2 and 10 keV depending on the choice of hydrogen column density model. This suggests that no more than one quarter of the $\gamma$-ray flux at 1 TeV is produced by inverse Compton scattering, when assuming an equipartition magnetic field of ~20 μG.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Challenge for Discrimination of Color-Singlet versus Color-Octet Quarkonium Production

The precise mechanism for production of quarkonium at hadron colliders is still an open question. Within non-relativistic quantum chromodynamics, quarkonium production cross sections can be factorized into short-distance, perturbative contributions and universal, non-perturbative, long-distance matrix elements, and then summed over quantum numbers of the heavy quark pair. In principle, at short-distances, the heavy quark pair can be either in a color-singlet or color-octet state, and it is desirable to establish the relative contributions to compare with data and to make predictions in different experimental environments. From the explicit form of the lowest-order perturbative matrix elements for color-singlet and color-octet production, we show that the structure of the optimal observable for discrimination on phase space, the likelihood ratio, has strong dependence on the angular momentum state of the heavy quark pair. This presents an obstruction for construction of a single, robust discrimination observable that can be applied to production of an arbitrary quarkonium state.

Larkoski, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2025

Possible $ν$ Source Class: 3-sigma Detection of High-Energy Neutrinos from Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidates

Identifying the sources of high-energy (TeV-PeV) astrophysical neutrinos is crucial for studies in both astrophysics and particle physics. Despite extensive searches for more than a decade, which revealed several individual potential sources and only one potential source class, the origins of these neutrinos remain largely unresolved; thus, more source classes should be investigated. In this work, we conduct the first search for high-energy neutrino emission from a new source class, supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), which are also theoretically motivated. We perform an unbinned maximum-likelihood-ratio analysis on our constructed catalog of 693 SMBHB candidates and 10 years of IceCube public data. Our results show positive correlations, with higher significance in more physically motivated scenarios and the highest significance at 3.0$σ$. In addition, we also study potential connections between SMBHBs' high-energy neutrino and nano-Hz gravitational-wave emissions, the latter being the main target of pulsar timing arrays. Our results provide the first evidence of SMBHBs being high-energy neutrino emitters.

Pugazhendhi A. D, Pugazhendhi D [Bangalore, Indian↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Target Detection Algorithms for Solid Subpixel Targets in Hyperspectral Images

Not Available

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supercharging simulation-based inference for Bayesian optimal experimental design

Abstract Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful tools for this regime. However, existing work explicitly connecting SBI and BOED is restricted to a single contrastive EIG bound. We show that the EIG admits multiple formulations which can directly leverage modern SBI density estimators, encompassing neural posterior, likelihood, and ratio estimation. Building on this perspective, we define a novel EIG estimator using neural likelihood estimation. Further, we identify optimization as a key bottleneck of gradient based EIG maximization and show that a simple multi-start parallel gradient ascent procedure can substantially improve reliability and performance. With these innovations, our SBI-based BOED methods are able to match or outperform by up to 22% existing state-of-the-art approaches across standard BOED benchmarks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pronghorn Porous Media Model Validation with Pressure Drop Measurements

The verification and validation (V&V) of Pronghorn is imperative to assert its accuracy when predicting the fluid velocity, temperature, and pressure in high temperature gas-cooled reactors. Pronghorn is a coarse-mesh, intermediate-fidelity, and multidimensional thermal-hydraulics (TH) code developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). New pebble bed experiments are used to observe the details of the fluid motion and pressure drop in the porous bed under the reactor normal operation. This paper focuses on the validation of the Pronghorn compressible and incompressible Navier-Stokes equations using the pressure drop measurements performed at the engineering-scale pebble bed facility at the Texas A&M university (TAMU). Various pressure drop correlations and porosity functions are implemented in both Pronghorn and STAR-CCM+ to compare the pressure drop due to the combined viscous and inertial resistances in the porous bed. The correlations accounting for the near-wall effect are also utilized to observe if the pressure drop estimates can be improved. Pronghorn porous media models predict the pressure drop well relative to the STAR-CCM+ simulation results and 1D correlations, and both the finite element method (FEM) and finite volume method (FVM) perform accurately. Pronghorn models are also validated with the experimental measurements given the different Reynolds number ranges and specific aspect ratios. The likelihood of the statistical significance between the pressure drop measurements and specific correlations or simulations is low provided that the overlap of their confidence intervals is more than the half of a single arm. Several validation metrics are reasonable in regard to the similar studies from other literature. The precise average pebble bed porosity estimation has much impact on the pressure drop, and the Foumeny and Montillet (dense packing) models carry out the accurate pressure drop prediction by considering the near-wall effect.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗