Results for “lifetime prediction models” — Page 3

NASA NTRS2011

Limits to Mercury's Magnesium Exosphere from MESSENGER Second Flyby Observations

The discovery measurements of Mercury's exospheric magnesium, obtained by the MErcury Surface. Space ENvironment, GEochemistry. and Ranging (MESSENGER) probe during its second Mercury flyby, are modeled to constrain the source and loss processes for this neutral species. Fits to a Chamberlain exosphere reveal that at least two source temperatures are required to reconcile the distribution of magnesium measured far from and near the planet: a hot ejection process at the equivalent temperature of several tens of thousands of degrees K, and a competing, cooler source at temperatures as low as 400 K. For the energetic component, our models indicate that the column abundance that can be attributed to sputtering under constant southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions is at least a factor of five less than the rate dictated by the measurements, Although highly uncertain, this result suggests that another energetic process, such as the rapid dissociation of exospheric MgO, may be the main source of the distant neutral component. If meteoroid and micrometeoroid impacts eject mainly molecules, the total amount of magnesium at altitudes exceeding approximately 100 km is found to be consistent with predictions by impact vaporization models for molecule lifetimes of no more than two minutes. Though a sharp increase in emission observed near the dawn terminator region can be reproduced if a single meteoroid enhanced the impact vapor at equatorial dawn, it is much more likely that observations in this region, which probe heights increasingly near the surface, indicate a reservoir of volatile Mg being acted upon by lower-energy source processes.

Sarantos, Menelaos↗

NASA NTRS2017

Monte Carlo Computational Modeling of Atomic Oxygen Interactions

Computational modeling of the erosion of polymers caused by atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit (LEO) is useful for determining areas of concern for spacecraft environment durability. Successful modeling requires that the characteristics of the environment such as atomic oxygen energy distribution, flux, and angular distribution be properly represented in the model. Thus whether the atomic oxygen is arriving normal to or inclined to a surface and whether it arrives in a consistent direction or is sweeping across the surface such as in the case of polymeric solar array blankets is important to determine durability. When atomic oxygen impacts a polymer surface it can react removing a certain volume per incident atom (called the erosion yield), recombine, or be ejected as an active oxygen atom to potentially either react with other polymer atoms or exit into space. Scattered atoms can also have a lower energy as a result of partial or total thermal accommodation. Many solutions to polymer durability in LEO involve protective thin films of metal oxides such as SiO2 to prevent atomic oxygen erosion. Such protective films also have their own interaction characteristics. A Monte Carlo computational model has been developed which takes into account the various types of atomic oxygen arrival and how it reacts with a representative polymer (polyimide Kapton H) and how it reacts at defect sites in an oxide protective coating, such as SiO2 on that polymer. Although this model was initially intended to determine atomic oxygen erosion behavior at defect sites for the International Space Station solar arrays, it has been used to predict atomic oxygen erosion or oxidation behavior on many other spacecraft components including erosion of polymeric joints, durability of solar array blanket box covers, and scattering of atomic oxygen into telescopes and microwave cavities where oxidation of critical component surfaces can take place. The computational model is a two dimensional model which has the capability to tune the interactions of how the atomic oxygen reacts, scatters, or recombines on polymer or nonreactive surfaces. In addition to the specification of atomic oxygen arrival details, a total of 15 atomic oxygen interaction parameters have been identified as necessary to properly simulate observed interactions and resulting polymer erosion that have been observed in LEO. The tuning of the Monte Carlo model has been accomplished by adjusting interaction parameters so the erosion patterns produced by the model match those from several actual LEO space experiments. Surface texturing in LEO can also be predicted by the model. Such comparison of space tests with ground laboratory experiments have enabled confidence in ground laboratory lifetime prediction of protected polymers. Results of Monte Carlo tuning, examples of surface texturing and undercutting erosion prediction, and several examples of how the model can be used to predict other LEO and Mars orbital space results are presented.

Monte Carlo Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2017

Monte Carlo Computational Modeling of Atomic Oxygen Interactions

Computational modeling of the erosion of polymers caused by atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit (LEO) is useful for determining areas of concern for spacecraft environment durability. Successful modeling requires that the characteristics of the environment such as atomic oxygen energy distribution, flux, and angular distribution be properly represented in the model. Thus whether the atomic oxygen is arriving normal to or inclined to a surface and whether it arrives in a consistent direction or is sweeping across the surface such as in the case of polymeric solar array blankets is important to determine durability. When atomic oxygen impacts a polymer surface it can react removing a certain volume per incident atom (called the erosion yield), recombine, or be ejected as an active oxygen atom to potentially either react with other polymer atoms or exit into space. Scattered atoms can also have a lower energy as a result of partial or total thermal accommodation. Many solutions to polymer durability in LEO involve protective thin films of metal oxides such as SiO2 to prevent atomic oxygen erosion. Such protective films also have their own interaction characteristics. A Monte Carlo computational model has been developed which takes into account the various types of atomic oxygen arrival and how it reacts with a representative polymer (polyimide Kapton H) and how it reacts at defect sites in an oxide protective coating, such as SiO2 on that polymer. Although this model was initially intended to determine atomic oxygen erosion behavior at defect sites for the International Space Station solar arrays, it has been used to predict atomic oxygen erosion or oxidation behavior on many other spacecraft components including erosion of polymeric joints, durability of solar array blanket box covers, and scattering of atomic oxygen into telescopes and microwave cavities where oxidation of critical component surfaces can take place. The computational model is a two dimensional model which has the capability to tune the interactions of how the atomic oxygen reacts, scatters, or recombines on polymer or nonreactive surfaces. In addition to the specification of atomic oxygen arrival details, a total of 15 atomic oxygen interaction parameters have been identified as necessary to properly simulate observed interactions and resulting polymer erosion that have been observed in LEO. The tuning of the Monte Carlo model has been accomplished by adjusting interaction parameters so the erosion patterns produced by the model match those from several actual LEO space experiments. Surface texturing in LEO can also be predicted by the model. Such comparison of space tests with ground laboratory experiments have enabled confidence in ground laboratory lifetime prediction of protected polymers. Results of Monte Carlo tuning, examples of surface texturing and undercutting erosion prediction, and several examples of how the model can be used to predict other LEO and Mars orbital space results are presented.

Atomic Oxygen↗

NASA NTRS1978

Asteroid collisions, craters, regoliths, and lifetimes

Laboratory experiments and computer modeling are used to predict the development of regoliths on all asteroids more than a few tens of kilometers in diameter, allowing for a wide range in the intrinsic strength of asteroidal surface materials. The high frequency of interasteroid collisions requires nearly all asteroids to be fragments of precursors.

Chapman, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Development of a simplified gravitational model for lifetime studies of lunar satellite orbits

Future lunar missions will involve long stay times in orbit about the moon. The moon's nonspherical gravitational field is the primary perturbation on a low altitude parking orbit. The objective of this study is to determine the orbital lifetime of a nearly circular low altitude parking orbit. In the present analysis, a simplified gravitational model of the moon is introduced which will enable mission designers to easily predict long term changes in lunar parking orbits at the preliminary design level. The development of a simplified gravitational model with sufficient accuracy is necessary to investigate orbital lifetimes for the large number of orbital parameters possible. Utilization of a simplified model will significantly reduce the required computational time needed to perform this analysis. By investigating the effects of the lunar gravity model on the various parking orbits, the parameters which are important in determining lifetime predictions are identified.

Meyer, Kurt W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Spiral clouds on Mars - A new atmospheric phenomenon

Viking Orbiter images obtained during the 1978 northern summer on Mars show unusual spiral cloud patterns at high northern latitudes. Well-developed spirals occurred only during early summer at a time when the sublimation of the annual CO2 frost cap in the north had ceased. The systems ranged in size from 200 to 500 km and all spirals were wound in a counter-clockwise sense. An explanation is proposed, based on the radiatively driven instability described by Gierasch, Ingersoll, and Williams. The model predicts disturbances with the correct scale and lifetime. However, the successful development of the spirals depends on the existence of weak mean winds, suggesting that these instabilities can only develop at special null points in the general circulation. It is argued that such special circumstances are most likely to occur during early northern summer and are less likely to obtain at a comparable season in the Southern Hemisphere.

Gierasch, P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index

This report documents the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 13-month smoothed solar flux (F(sub 10.7)) and geomagnetic index (A(sub p)) intermediate (months) and long-range (years) statistical estimation technique, referred to as the MSFC Lagrangian Linear Regression Technique (MLLRT). Estimates of future solar activity are needed as updated input to upper atmosphere density models used for satellite and spacecraft orbital lifetime predictions. An assessment of the MLLRT computer program's products is provided for 5-year periods from the date estimates were made. This was accomplished for a number of past solar cycles.

Niehuss, K. O.↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

stress ratios↗

NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary study: Moisture-polymer interaction. Stuby objectives

The problems associated with mathematically modeling water-module interaction phenomena, including sorption and desorption, diffusion, and permeation are discussed. With reliable analytical models, an extensive materials data base, and solar radiation surface meteorological observations (SOLMET) weather data, predicting module lifetimes in realistic environments can become a practical reality. The status of the present techniques of simulating the various transport mechanisms was reported. The Dent model (a modified Brunauer-Emmet-Teller) approach represented polyvinyl butyral (PVB) sorption data. A 100-layer material model and Fick's diffusion model gave diffusivity values exhibiting adequate agreement with those measured for PVB. Diffusivity of PVB is concentration dependent, decreasing as the water content in PVB increases. The temperature dependence of diffusion in PVB is well modeled by the Arrhenius rate equation. Equilibrium conductivity and leakage current data are well represented by Hearle's model for bulk ionic conductivity. A nodal network analysis using the Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) Thermal Analyzer gave reasonable correlation with measurable data. It is concluded that realistic lifetime predictions seem to be feasible.

Wen, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Great (Flame) Balls of Fire! Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number-2 (SOFBALL-2)

Everyone knows that an automobile engine wastes fuel and energy when it runs with a fuel-rich mixture. 'Lean' burning, mixing in more air and less fuel, is better for the environment. But lean mixtures also lead to engine misfiring and rough operation. No one knows the ultimate limits for lean operation, for 'weak' combustion that is friendly to the environment while still moving us around. This is where the accidental verification of a decades-old prediction may have strong implications for designing and running low-emissions engines in the 21st century. In 1944, Soviet physicist Yakov Zeldovich predicted that stationary, spherical flames are possible under limited conditions in lean fuel-air mixtures. Dr. Paul Ronney of the University of Southern California accidentally discovered such 'flame balls' in experiments with lean hydrogen-air mixtures in 1984 during drop-tower experiments that provided just 2.2 seconds of near weightlessness. Experiments aboard NASA's low-g aircraft confirmed the results, but a thorough investigation was hampered by the aircraft's bumpy ride. And stable flame balls can only exist in microgravity. The potential for investigating combustion at the limits of flammability, and the implications for spacecraft fire safety, led to the Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number (SOFBALL) experiment flown twice aboard the Space Shuttle on the Microgravity Sciences Laboratory-1 (MSL-1) in 1997. Success there led to the planned reflight on STS-107. Flame balls are the weakest fires yet produced in space or on Earth. Typically each flame ball produced only 1 watt of thermal power. By comparison, a birthday candle produces 50 watts. The Lewis-number measures the rate of diffusion of fuel into the flame ball relative to the rate of diffusion of heat away from the flame ball. Lewis-number mixtures conduct heat poorly. Hydrogen and methane are the only fuels that provide low enough Lewis-numbers to produce stable flame balls, and even then only for very weak, barely flammable mixtures. Nevertheless, under these conditions flame balls give scientists the opportunity to test models in one of the simplest combustion experiments possible. SOFBALL-2 science objectives include: Improving our understanding of the flame ball phenomenon; Determining the conditions under which flame balls exist; Testing predictions of flame ball lifetimes; Acquiring more precise data for critical model comparison.

Ronney, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2001

An Overview of Modeling Middle Atmospheric Odd Nitrogen

Odd nitrogen (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, and BrONO2) constituents are important components in the control of middle atmospheric ozone. Several processes lead to the production of odd nitrogen (NO(sub y)) in the middle atmosphere (stratosphere and mesosphere) including the oxidation of nitrous oxide (N2O), lightning, downflux from the thermosphere, and energetic charged particles (e.g., galactic cosmic rays, solar proton events, and energetic electron precipitation). The dominant production mechanism of NO(sub y) in the stratosphere is N2O oxidation, although other processes contribute. Mesospheric NO(sub y) is influenced by N2O oxidation, downflux from the thermosphere, and energetic charged particles. NO(sub y) is destroyed in the middle atmosphere primarily via two processes: 1) dissociation of NO to form N and O followed by N + NO yielding N2 + O to reform even nitrogen; and 2) transport to the troposphere where HNO3 can be rapidly scavenged in water droplets and rained out of the atmosphere. There are fairly significant differences among global models that predict NO(sub y). NO(sub y) has a fairly long lifetime in the stratosphere (months to years), thus disparate transport in the models probably contributes to many of these differences. Satellite and aircraft measurement provide modeling tests of the various components of NO(sub y). Although some recent reaction rate measurements have led to improvements in model/measurement agreement, significant differences do remain. This presentation will provide an overview of several proposed sources and sinks of NO(sub y) and their regions of importance. Multi-dimensional modeling results for NO(sub y) and its components with comparisons to observations will also be presented.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostics and Health Monitoring in Li-Ion Batteries and Capacitors Using Physics-Based Modeling Approach

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem of the lifetime of Li-ion batteries, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the battery pack. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, one must possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Using derived models of the current and future system behavior, a model-based prognostics approach can be implemented as a solution to the prediction problem. As more and more autonomous electric vehicles progressively emerge in our daily life, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systems/subsystems. Batteries, power electronics conditioning systems, and motors are integrated to form the powertrain in electric vehicles; one of the most critical systems. In the case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is critical for safety, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastropheThis presentation covers a physics-based modeling approach implemented for case studies in capacitor and battery prognostics which are an integral part of an electrical powertrain system. The general approach of model-based prognostics will be examined as a potential solution for safety critical problems related to battery state of charge and state of health.

Physics based modeling↗

NASA NTRS1983

A general computer model for predicting the performance of gas sorption refrigerators

Projected performance requirements for cryogenic spacecraft sensor cooling systems which demand higher reliability and longer lifetimes are outlined. The gas/solid sorption refrigerator is viewed as a potential solution to cryogenic cooling needs. A software model of an entire gas sorption refrigerator system was developed. The numerical model, evaluates almost any combination and order of refrigerator components and any sorbent-sorbate pair or which the sorption isotherm data are available. Parametric curves for predicting system performance were generated for two types of refrigerators, a LaNi5-H2 absorption cooler and a Charcoal-N2 adsorption cooler. It is found that precooling temperature and heat exchanger effectiveness affect the refrigerator performance. It is indicated that gas sorption refrigerators are feasible for a number of space applications.

Sigurdson, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tropospheric OH and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) may be used as alternatives for the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Lifetimes for the HCFCs are predicted here in two ways: integrating their loss with a global model and scaling to another compound with a better known lifetime. Both approaches are shown to yield similar results. Three-dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for the HCFCs and other hydrogenated halocarbons. The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using a ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

Prather, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1985

Viscoplastic constitutive relationships with dependence on thermomechanical history

Experimental evidence of thermomechanical history dependence in the cyclic hardening behavior of some common high-temperature structural alloys is presented with special emphasis on dynamic metallurgical changes. The inadequacy of formulating nonisothermal constitutive equations solely on the basis of isothermal testing is discussed. A representation of thermoviscoplasticity is proposed that qualitatively accounts for the observed hereditary behavior. This is achieved by formulating the scalar evolutionary equation in an established viscoplasticity theory to reflect thermomechanical path dependence. To assess the importance of accounting for thermomechanical history dependence in practical structural analyses, two qualitative models are specified: (1) formulated as if based entirely on isothermal information; (2) to reflect thermomechanical path dependence using the proposed thermoviscoplastic representation. Predictions of the two models are compared and the impact the calculated differences in deformation behavior may have on subsequent lifetime predictions is discussed.

Robinson, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Postshock Chemical Lifetimes of Outflow Tracers and a Possible New Mechanism to Produce Water Ice Mantles

We have used a coupled time-dependent chemical and dynamical model to investigate the lifetime of the chemical legacy in the wake of C-type shocks. We concentrate this study on the chemistry of H2O and O2, two molecules which are predicted to have abundances that are significantly affected in shock-heated gas. Two models are presented: (1) a three-stage model of preshock, shocked, and postshock gas; and (2) a Monte Carlo cloud simulation where we explore the effects of stochastic shock activity on molecular gas over a cloud lifetime. For both models we separately examine the pure gas-phase chemistry as well as the chemistry including the interactions of molecules with grain surfaces. In agreement with previous studies, we find that shock velocities in excess of 10 km/s are required to convert all of the oxygen not locked in CO into H2O before the gas has an opportunity to cool. For pure gas phase models the lifetime of the high water abundances, or "H2O legacy," in the postshock gas is approximately (4-7) x 10(exp 5) yr, independent of the gas density. A density dependence for the lifetime of H2O is found in gas-grain models as the water molecules deplete onto grains at the depletion timescale. Through the Monte Carlo cloud simulation we demonstrate that the time-average abundance of H2O, the weighted average of the amount of time gas spends in preshock, shock, and postshock stages, is a sensitive function of the frequency of shocks. Thus we predict that the abundance of H2O, and to a lesser extent O2, can be used to trace the history of shock activity in molecular gas. We use previous large-scale surveys of molecular outflows to constrain the frequency of 10 km/s shocks in regions with varying star formation properties and discuss the observations required to test these results. We discuss the postshock lifetimes for other possible outflow tracers (e.g., SiO and CH3OH) and show that the differences between the lifetimes for various tracers can produce potentially observable chemical variations between younger and older outflows. For gas-grain models we find that the abundance of water-ice on grain surfaces can be quite large and is comparable to that observed in molecular clouds. This offers a possible alternative method to create water mantles without resorting to grain surface chemistry: gas heating and chemical modification due to a C-type shock and subsequent depletion of the gas-phase species onto grain mantles.

Bergin, Edwin A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.↗