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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes

The evaporative loss from global lakes (natural and artificial) is a critical component of the terrestrial water and energy balance. However, the evaporation volume of these water bodies—from the spatial distribution to the long-term trend—is as of yet unknown. Here, using satellite observations and modeling tools, we quantified the evaporation volume from 1.42 million global lakes from 1985 to 2018. We find that the long-term average lake evaporation is 1500 ± 150 km 3 year -1 and it has increased at a rate of 3.12 km 3 year -1 . The trend attributions include an increasing evaporation rate (58%), decreasing lake ice coverage (23%), and increasing lake surface area (19%). While only accounting for 5% of the global lake storage capacity, artificial lakes (i.e., reservoirs) contribute 16% to the evaporation volume. Our results underline the importance of using evaporation volume, rather than evaporation rate, as the primary index for assessing climatic impacts on lake systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake sediment heatwaves under global warming

Lake sediment heatwaves, driven by rising global temperatures, pose emerging threats to freshwater ecosystems by altering sediment thermal regimes and intensifying sediment biogeochemical processes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of lake sediment heatwaves, examining their historical patterns and projecting future trends under various climate scenarios in 41,499 representative lakes worldwide. Using daily simulated lake sediment temperatures from 1981 to 2010 and future (2071-2100) projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), we investigate lake sediment heatwave characteristics, including their duration, intensity, frequency, and seasonal timing, worldwide. Our results show that lake sediment heatwaves are generally more persistent and frequent than lake surface heatwaves, with sediment heatwaves in pelagic regions experiencing a significant lag relative to surface conditions. Under future climate scenarios, sediment heatwaves are projected to intensify, with their duration and frequency increasing substantially, particularly under SSP585. These shifts could exacerbate the production of greenhouse gases like methane and increase sediment respiration rates in lakes. This study highlights the need to account for sediment heatwaves in freshwater ecosystem management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts.

Limnology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Depth-resolved carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in 522 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs worldwide

Lakes, ponds, and reservoirs (hereafter: “lakes”) are important sources of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from lakes are regulated in part by in-lake processes, including the production and storage of gases in the lower parts of the water column (bottom waters). However, while substantial efforts have been made to improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, limited data on gas concentrations along depth profiles have prevented the incorporation of bottom-water processes in global emission estimates. Here, we present GHG-depths: the largest existing dataset of depth-profile CO 2 and CH 4 measurements worldwide, including 522 lakes across 38 countries and all seven continents. These data include contributions from 45 research teams and 56 published studies, totaling 2558 discrete sampling events. As global change continues to alter biogeochemical cycling in lakes, these data can help improve mechanistic models to better predict greenhouse gas production and emission from lakes worldwide.

Rabaey, Joseph S. [University of Minnesota, Duluth↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cryptic cycling by electroactive bacterioplankton in Trout Bog Lake

The potential for extracellular electron transfer (EET) is a prevailing genomic feature of humic lake bacterioplankton. However, there has been little evidence for the substantial ecological contribution predicted by genetics. We hypothesized that anoxygenic phototrophic electrotrophs and accompanying heterotrophic electrogens cycle dissolved organic matter (DOM) between oxidized and reduced states. We predicted that such bacterioplankton would exhibit diel-scale oscillations due to the light dependency of photosynthesis. Using Trout Bog Lake in Wisconsin, USA, as our model ecosystem, we profiled the water column with depth-discrete metagenomic, physiochemical, and electrochemical analyses. We observed variation in oxidation reduction potential (ORP) in response to sunlight, initiating at depths populated by anoxygenic phototrophs with EET genes. We developed an automated buoy to measure electric current flow between many pairs of electrodes simultaneously, observing correlation in electron consumption to sunlight. Our results, combined with published metatranscriptomic analysis, indicate the occurrence of electron cycling between phototrophic oxidation (electrotrophic metabolism) by Chlorobium and anaerobic respiration (electrogenic metabolism) by Geothrix, involving DOM. We also repeatedly observed gradual seasonal increases in hypolimnion ORP throughout summer. These diel and seasonal patterns imply that electroactive DOM mediates the ecology of electroactive bacteria in lakes, controlling humic lake methane emissions.IMPORTANCEWe investigated the physical, chemical, and redox characteristics of a bog lake and electrodes hung therein to test the hypothesis that dissolved organic matter is being cycled between oxidized and reduced states by electroactive bacterioplankton powered by phototrophy. To do so, we performed field-based analyses on multiple timescales using both established and novel instrumentation. We paired these analyses with recently developed bioinformatics pipelines for metagenomics data to investigate genes that enable electroactive metabolism and accompanying metabolisms. Our results are consistent with our hypothesis and yet upend some of our other expectations. Our findings have implications for understanding greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, including electroactivity as an integral part of lake metabolism throughout more of the anoxic parts of lakes and for a longer portion of the summer than expected. Our results also give a sense of what electroactivity occurs at given depths and provide a strong basis for future studies.

carbon emissions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-series metagenomics reveals changing protistan ecology of a temperate dimictic lake

Abstract Background Protists, single-celled eukaryotic organisms, are critical to food web ecology, contributing to primary productivity and connecting small bacteria and archaea to higher trophic levels. Lake Mendota is a large, eutrophic natural lake that is a Long-Term Ecological Research site and among the world’s best-studied freshwater systems. Metagenomic samples have been collected and shotgun sequenced from Lake Mendota for the last 20 years. Here, we analyze this comprehensive time series to infer changes to the structure and function of the protistan community and to hypothesize about their interactions with bacteria. Results Based on small subunit rRNA genes extracted from the metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes of microeukaryotes, we identify shifts in the eukaryotic phytoplankton community over time, which we predict to be a consequence of reduced zooplankton grazing pressures after the invasion of a invasive predator (the spiny water flea) to the lake. The metagenomic data also reveal the presence of the spiny water flea and the zebra mussel, a second invasive species to Lake Mendota, prior to their visual identification during routine monitoring. Furthermore, we use species co-occurrence and co-abundance analysis to connect the protistan community with bacterial taxa. Correlation analysis suggests that protists and bacteria may interact or respond similarly to environmental conditions. Cryptophytes declined in the second decade of the timeseries, while many alveolate groups (e.g., ciliates and dinoflagellates) and diatoms increased in abundance, changes that have implications for food web efficiency in Lake Mendota. Conclusions We demonstrate that metagenomic sequence-based community analysis can complement existing efforts to monitor protists in Lake Mendota based on microscopy-based count surveys. We observed patterns of seasonal abundance in microeukaryotes in Lake Mendota that corroborated expectations from other systems, including high abundance of cryptophytes in winter and diatoms in fall and spring, but with much higher resolution than previous surveys. Our study identified long-term changes in the abundance of eukaryotic microbes and provided context for the known establishment of an invasive species that catalyzes a trophic cascade involving protists. Our findings are important for decoding potential long-term consequences of human interventions, including invasive species introduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bulk Transfer Coefficients Estimated From Eddy-Covariance Measurements Over Lakes and Reservoirs

The drag coefficient, Stanton number and Dalton number are of particular importance for estimating the surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and water vapor using bulk parameterization. Although these bulk transfer coefficients have been extensively studied over the past several decades in marine and large-lake environments, there are no studies analyzing their variability for smaller lakes. Here, we evaluated these coefficients through directly measured surface fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique over more than 30 lakes and reservoirs of different sizes and depths. Our analysis showed that the transfer coefficients (adjusted to neutral atmospheric stability) were generally within the range reported in previous studies for large lakes and oceans. All transfer coefficients exhibit a substantial increase at low wind speeds (<3 m s -1 ), which was found to be associated with the presence of gusts and capillary waves (except Dalton number). Stanton number was found to be on average a factor of 1.3 higher than Dalton number, likely affecting the Bowen ratio method. At high wind speeds, the transfer coefficients remained relatively constant at values of 1.6·10 -3 , 1.4·10 -3 , 1.0·10 -3 , respectively. We found that the variability of the transfer coefficients among the lakes could be associated with lake surface area. In flux parameterizations at lake surfaces, it is recommended to consider variations in the drag coefficient and Stanton number due to wind gustiness and capillary wave roughness while Dalton number could be considered as constant at all wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

National-scale remotely sensed lake trophic state from 1984 through 2020

Lake trophic state is a key ecosystem property that integrates a lake’s physical, chemical, and biological processes. Despite the importance of trophic state as a gauge of lake water quality, standardized and machine-readable observations are uncommon. Remote sensing presents an opportunity to detect and analyze lake trophic state with reproducible, robust methods across time and space. We used Landsat surface reflectance data to create the first compendium of annual lake trophic state for 55,662 lakes of at least 10 ha in area throughout the contiguous United States from 1984 through 2020. The dataset was constructed with FAIR data principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproducible) in mind, where data are publicly available, relational keys from parent datasets are retained, and all data wrangling and modeling routines are scripted for future reuse. Together, this resource offers critical data to address basic and applied research questions about lake water quality at a suite of spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced Warming in Global Dryland Lakes and Its Drivers

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have found that LSWT warming is occurring on a global scale and is expected to continue in the future. Recently, new global LSWT data products have been generated using satellite remote sensing, which provides an inimitable opportunity to study the LSWT response to global warming. Based on the satellite observations, we found that the warming rate of global lakes is uneven, with apparent regional differences. Indeed, comparing the LSWT warming in different climate zones (from arid to humid), the lakes in drylands experienced more significant warming (0.28 °C decade-1) than those in semi-humid and humid regions (0.19 °C decade-1) during previous decades (1995–2016). By further quantifying the impact factors, it showed that the LSWT warming is attributed to air temperature (74.4%), evaporation (4.1%), wind (9.9%), cloudiness (4.3%), net shortwave (3.1%), and net longwave (4.0%) over the lake surface. Air temperature is the main driving force for the warming of most global lakes, so the first estimate quantification of future LSWT trends can be determined from air temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century, the summer air temperature would warm up to 1.0 °C (SSP1-2.6) and 6.3 °C (SSP5-8.5) over lakes, with a more significant warming trend over the dryland lakes. Combined with their higher warming sensitivity, the excess summer LSWT warming in drylands is expected to continue, which is of great significance because of their high relevance in these water-limited regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A ‘Nuclear Bomb’ or Just ‘a Joke’? Groundwater Models May Help Communicate Nuanced Risks to the Great Salt Lake

The Great Salt Lake entered the zeitgeist of environmental concern in 2022 when a coalition of scientists and activists warned in a highly publicized report that the lake might be just five years away from complete desiccation, a possibility one state official warned was tantamount to an “environmental nuclear bomb”. Shortly thereafter, an unpredicted and unprecedented pluvial winter resulted in an increase in inflow, temporarily halting the lake’s decline and prompting Utah’s governor to mock the dire prediction as “a joke”, an outcome that speaks to the tension between agenda-setting and trust-building that researchers face when sharing worst-case warnings, particularly those based on short-term variability. Here, we describe a robust relationship between the lake and groundwater in the surrounding region and demonstrate how coupled models can thus be used to improve lake elevation predictions, suggesting that while the situation may not be as dire as some have warned, the lake remains at long-term risk as a result of climate warming. We further suggest that efforts to communicate the risk of future desiccation should be informed by stochastic variability and guided by long-term fluctuations in the total water storage of the endorheic lake’s watershed.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contrasting effects of lake breeze and urbanization on heat stress in Chicago metropolitan area

This study used the latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with multi -layer urban canopy models to investigate contrasting effects from urbanization and lake breeze on summer heat stress over the Chicago metropolitan area (CMA). Comparisons between the model and in situ observations show that this coupled modeling system better captures urban locations' diurnal pattern of surface air temperature, skin temperature and relative humidity, with root mean square error reduced from 1.58 to 1.80 degrees C to 1.14-1.31 degrees C, 3.11-3.55 degrees C to 1.81-2.21 degrees C, and 10.73-11.35% to 7.84-8.60%, respectively, compared to WRF without coupling the urban canopy models. Two sensitivity experiments were conducted to isolate the influence of lake breeze and urbanization: one replaced the urban land use with cropland over the CMA, and the other filled all of Lake Michigan with cropland. Three different heat stress indices were computed to assess the uncertainties of heat stress response to changes in air temperature, relative humidity, and wind conditions. Results show that, when the lake has the largest cooling effect on air temperature, it also increases the relative humidity the most, and vice versa for urban warming and drying effects. Urbanization intensifies heat stress at night, and extends the heat caution period by up to 4 h over inland urban grids; the lake breeze relieves heat stress during afternoon (when the heat stress is the worst), and shortens the heat caution period by 1-3 h over inland urban grids and 3-4 h over coastal urban grids. In conclusion, the intensification of heat stress over the CMA due to urbanization is more than four times greater than the reduction from the lake breeze in the late afternoon and evening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sentinel protist taxa of the McMurdo Dry Valley lakes, Antarctica: a review

High-latitude meromictic lakes such as those in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) harbor aquatic ecosystems dominated by the microbial loop. Within this habitat, which is limited year-round by light and nutrients, protists, or single celled eukaryotes, play outsized roles in the food web as the dominant primary producers and the apex predators. Thus, the MDV lake ecosystem represents an ideal system to study the role of sentinel protist taxa in carbon and nutrient cycling. The perennially ice-covered lakes are part of the McMurdo Long Term Ecological Research (McM LTER; mcmlter.org) established in 1993. In this review we will highlight the diversity and trophic roles of the MDV lake protist community and compare environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns in key protist taxa in two lakes within the McM LTER, Lakes Bonney and Fryxell. We will then discuss lessons learned from manipulated experiments on the impact of current and future climate-driven environmental change on sensitive protist taxa. Last, we will integrate knowledge gained from 25 years of lab-controlled experiments on key photosynthetic protists to extend our understanding of the function of these extremophiles within the MDV aquatic food webs. Our research group has studied the distribution and function of the MDV microbial community for nearly two decades, training the next generation of scientists to tackle future problems of these globally significant microbes. This review article will also highlight early career scientists who have contributed to this body of work and represent the future of scientific understanding in the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗