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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A viscoelastic higher-order beam finite element

A viscoelastic internal variable constitutive theory is applied to a higher-order elastic beam theory and finite element formulation. The behavior of the viscous material in the beam is approximately modeled as a Maxwell solid. The finite element formulation requires additional sets of nodal variables for each relaxation time constant needed by the Maxwell solid. Recent developments in modeling viscoelastic material behavior with strain variables that are conjugate to the elastic strain measures are combined with advances in modeling through-the-thickness stresses and strains in thick beams. The result is a viscous thick-beam finite element that possesses superior characteristics for transient analysis since its nodal viscous forces are not linearly dependent an the nodal velocities, which is the case when damping matrices are used. Instead, the nodal viscous forces are directly dependent on the material's relaxation spectrum and the history of the nodal variables through a differential form of the constitutive law for a Maxwell solid. The thick beam quasistatic analysis is explored herein as a first step towards developing more complex viscoelastic models for thick plates and shells, and for dynamic analyses. The internal variable constitutive theory is derived directly from the Boltzmann superposition theorem. The mechanical strains and the conjugate internal strains are shown to be related through a system of first-order, ordinary differential equations. The total time-dependent stress is the superposition of its elastic and viscous components. Equations of motion for the solid are derived from the virtual work principle using the total time-dependent stress. Numerical examples for the problems of relaxation, creep, and cyclic creep are carried out for a beam made from an orthotropic Maxwell solid.

Johnson, Arthur R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations

Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation management geoengineering schemes. The long-term success or failure of such schemes in achieving their stated goals is assessed by comparing simulated geoengineered temperature, precipitation and tropical cyclones metrics to equivalent fields in the simulated targeted climate simulations. Results using available data sets from three single model stabilized climate target experiments and three multimodel climate change reduction experiments are presented and compared against a measure of internal variability. While all but one experimental scheme is successful in achieving their targeted global mean annual surface temperature, their success at regional scales varies significantly and is often larger than the internal variability metric used here.

climate model evaluation↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of damage in MMC components using an internal state variable model

A metal-matrix composite (MMC) model was developed which includes the concept of damage evolution. The evolution of damage is assumed to be governed by a Kachanov-type equation. This viscoplastic damage model was implemented in the finite element code, MARC. Both uniaxial (creep) and multiaxial (an internally pressurized thick-walled cylinder) problems were analyzed using this implementation. Some preliminary results are presented which consider monotonic (constant) loadings. The creep curves including damage for four fiber orientations are presented. As expected, the minimum creep occurs when load is applied in a direction parallel to the fibers. The tangential strains at the inner radius of a thick-walled MMC-cylinder for four fiber orientations are shown with damage included. The cylinder exhibits the maximum creep resistance when the fibers are oriented in the circumferential direction, perpendicular to the axis of the cylinder. Time-to-failure for the thick-walled cylinder for the same fiber orientation angles is also shown. As expected, the life of the cylinder can be increased by orientating the fibers in the circumferential direction, perpendicular to the axis of the cylinder. The results, although qualitative, indicate that significant benefits in creep-resistance and service life can be achieved by using MMC materials as structural materials for high-temperature design.

Arya, V. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

Arctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short-term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel-Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reassessing Post-Eruption Precipitation Anomalies in the Context of Natural Variability

Several studies have reported anomalous precipitation in the years that follow large volcanic eruptions. Here we assess precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years according to their rarity in non-volcanic periods. Using global simulations of climate over the last millennium, we reevaluate the response of precipitation to volcanic aerosols in terms of novel metrics. In this approach, the magnitude of the precipitation response is contextualized through comparisons to internal variability. We also examine the connections between global and regional-scale precipitation anomalies. Finally, we assess to what extent a unique ‘fingerprint’ of eruptions can be seen in the observational precipitation record in spite of concurrent internal variability.

volcanic eruptions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine-Learning-Based Multiscale Methods for 3D Modelling of Granular Materials by Incorporating History-Dependent State Variables

Over the past decades, the prevalence of machine learning (ML) methods has made the development of ML-based constitutive models for granular materials undoubtedly a popular subject. Numerous studies have been made to feature the loading path or history-dependent stress-strain response of granular media using neural networks. In this work, a novel finite element method (FEM)–ML multiscale approach was developed by incorporating internal variables to improve the simulation accuracy of 3D history-dependent granular materials for the first time. To this end, a surrogate constitutive model based on the single-step-based multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network was used to replace representative volume element (RVE) simulations conducted by the discrete element method (DEM) in the multiscale FEM–DEM approach. Although the prediction principle of the MLP aligns with the FEM algorithm, artificially added internal variables are required to differentiate the loading history. To address this issue, history variables associated with the Frobenius norm are proposed to be fed into the MLP coupled with the strain tensor to extract the history-dependent behaviour of granular assemblies. The developed FEM–ML approach was demonstrated in 3D conventional triaxial compression (CTC) simulations. Compared to the multiscale FEM–DEM approach, the proposed FEM–ML method exhibits a significantly improved computational efficiency.

granular materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS1985

Constitutive equations of ageing polymeric materials

The constitutive equation for the relaxation behavior of time-dependent, chemically unstable materials developed by Valanis and Peng (1983), which used the irreversible thermodynamics of internal variables in Eyring's absolute reaction theory and yielded a theoretical expression for the effect of chemical crosslink density on the relaxation rate, is presently applied to the creep behavior of a network polymer which is undergoing a scission process. In particular, two equations are derived which may for the first time show the relations between mechanical models and internal variables in the creep expressions, using a three-element model with a Maxwell element.

Peng, S. T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A survey of unified constitutive theories

The state of the art of time temperature dependent elastic viscoplastic constitutive theories which are based on the unified approach werre assessed. This class of constitutive theories is characterized by the use of kinetic equations and internal variables with appropriate evolutionary equations for treating all aspects of inelastic deformation including plasticity, creep, and stress relaxation. More than 10 such unified theories which are shown to satisfy the uniqueness and stability criteria imposed by Drucker's postulate and Ponter's inequalities are identified. The theories are compared for the types of flow law, kinetic equation, evolutionary equation of the internal variables, and treatment of temperature dependence. The similarities and differences of these theories are outlined in terms of mathematical formulations and illustrated by comparisons of theoretical calculations with experimental results which include monotonic stress-strain curves, cyclic hysteresis loops, creep and stress relaxation rates, and thermomechanical loops. Numerical methods used for integrating these stiff time temperature dependent constitutive equations are reviewed.

Chan, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1956

Effect of Several Design Variables on Internal Performance of Convergent-plug Exhaust Nozzles

Numerous experiments were conducted to determine factors which affect the internal performance of convergent-plug exhaust nozzles. The results of these experiments, which include effects of such things as plug shape, nozzle inlet Mach number, and outer-shell characteristics, provide a basis for optimum desifn from the standpoint of weight and size. The results also show performance penalties which can result when the nozzle is too small.

Krull, H George↗
NASA NTRS1997

Robust Integration Schemes for Generalized Viscoplasticity with Internal-State Variables

The scope of the work in this presentation focuses on the development of algorithms for the integration of rate dependent constitutive equations. In view of their robustness; i.e., their superior stability and convergence properties for isotropic and anisotropic coupled viscoplastic-damage models, implicit integration schemes have been selected. This is the simplest in its class and is one of the most widely used implicit integrators at present.

Saleeb, Atef F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗
NASA NTRS2002

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗