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At least 55 records · Page 3

A Functional All-Hazard Approach to Critical Infrastructure Dependency Analysis

The critical infrastructures protection landscape is a vast and varied pattern of independent, but interconnected infrastructure systems that are essential to the function of our modern society. The U.S. policy on critical infrastructure protection has been continually evolving since the “President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection” was published in 1997. In response to these policies, federal, state, and local governments, along with research institutions, have invested a substantial amount of time and effort into identifying and analyzing critical infrastructure, their functions, and dependencies/interdependencies to better understand their vulnerabilities. To date, the ability to assess vulnerabilities, resiliency, and priorities for protecting interdependent critical infrastructure systems from an all-hazards perspective remains a difficult problem. In this paper we introduce the All-Hazards Analysis (AHA) methodology, which provides an integrated functional basis across infrastructure systems, through the implementation of a common language and a scalable level of decomposition to effectively evaluate the resilience of interconnected infrastructure systems. AHA models infrastructure systems as directed multidimensional graphs, which enable the evaluation of cross-sector interdependencies prior to, during, and after disruptive events. Finally, and by design, AHA enables the cross linking of data taxonomies to enable more effective data sharing, such as the National Critical Functions (NCF) and Infrastructure Data Taxonomy (IDT).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Data Analytics for Residential PV from Permit to Interconnect (Final Technical Report)

The main objective of this research is to provide novel insights into the effects of permitting, inspection, and interconnection (PII) processes on PV system installations—and in particular, into the relationship between PII processes and adoption timelines. This research can then be used to clarify the potential effect of various process changes on reducing PII timelines, customer cancellation rates, and related costs nationwide. NREL completed this research by assembling a data set of distributed, largely residential rooftop solar systems less than 50 kilowatts in size from participating solar installers. NREL produced five publications describing the effects that PII processes can have on adoption timelines nationwide, in addition to publishing an interactive data viewer with five years of PII cycle time data. This tool can be used by stakeholders to identify potential adoption timelines by local government.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Power Plant Siting Opportunities and Constraints in the Eastern Interconnection

The electrical transmission grid is a critical part of the U.S. national infrastructure, and its modernization is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) priority. We describe the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a unique, powerful, and public web-based system with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models for more than 20 power plant technologies and many other capabilities. Through a case study on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants in the Eastern Interconnection (EI), we provide an example of incorporating an EZMT MCDA model into a larger planning context, with projections of interconnection-level capacity expansion, thermoelectric power plant retirements, and water availability. Our results provide insights on candidate NGCC site distributions and the criteria influencing them. The case study provides both an efficient methodology for performing similar analyses and hundreds of candidate NGCC power plant sites that can be studied in more detail as potential project sites.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Cybersecurity and Digital Components: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. As the energy sector has become more globalized and increasingly complex, digitized, and even virtualized, its supply chain risk for digital components – the software, virtual platforms and services, and data – in energy systems has evolved and expanded. All digital components in U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable and may be subject to cyber supply cha in risks stemming from a variety of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This includes digital components in all systems within the ESIB, namely those systems operated by asset owners across different energy subsectors (e.g., electricity, oil and natural gas, and renewables) and the systems operated by a worldwide industrial complex with capabilities to perform research and development and design, produce, operate, and maintain energy sector systems, subsystems, components, or parts to meet U.S. energy requirements. Supply chain risks for digital components including software, virtual platforms and services, and data have grown in recent years as increasingly sophisticated cyber adversaries have targeted exploiting vulnerabilities in these digital assets. Supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine Learning for NASA Advanced Information Systems

NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program is one of several Technology programs managed by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) in the Earth Science Division (ESD). The AIST Program focuses on advanced information systems and novel computer science technologies that will be needed by NASA Earth Science in the next 5 to 10 years. The three main thrusts of the AIST Program deal with Novel Observing Strategies (NOS), Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). For all these thrusts, Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly being used in multiple aspects of Earth science systems, e.g., for onboard autonomy and decision making, for the analysis of massive and diverse datasets as well as more recently for developing surrogate models that will represent one of the main components of future Digital Twins of the Earth. Particularly, ESDT technologies developed by the AIST Program will allow to develop integrated Earth Science frameworks that will mirror the Earth with state-of-the-art models (Earth system models and others), timely and relevant observations, and analytic tools. These information systems will be used for supporting near- and long-term science and policy decisions. ESDT frameworks will build on previously developed AIST capabilities and technologies to integrate interconnected models with continuous streams of observations, data analytics, data assimilation, simulations, advanced visualizations and the ability to conduct "what-if" scenarios. This talk will describe the three thrusts of the AIST Program with a special focus on Machine Learning and how it is being used at all steps of the Earth Science data lifecycle.

Mathematical and Computer Sciences (General)↗

Residential and Small Commercial Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Permitting, Inspection, and Interconnection Timelines: A Retrospective Review (2017-2023)

This report is part of the ongoing Solar Time-Based Residential Analytics and Cycle Time Estimator (SolarTRACE) project, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The SolarTRACE project utilizes time-stamped project-level data provided by installer-partners to assess nationwide and AHJ- and utility-level PI&I and other solar PV adoption timelines since 2017. Our dataset now covers 22% of residential solar and 33% of residential storage installs in the U.S. since 2017. This report provides an update to our previous 2022 report (Cruce et al., 2022b) and includes: updated 2017 2023 project timelines for residential rooftop solar PV up to 20kW; updated tracking of permitting process changes at nearly 4,000 AHJs nationwide; and first-ever reporting of timelines for residential PV+storage projects up to 20kW.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Grid Interconnection and Renewables Deployment Related Air Quality and Human Health Benefits in Southeast Asia

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increasingly focused on multilateral electricity trade, improved grid resiliency and modernization. These opportunities in the power sector have been studied through the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Studies, the most recent of which is the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III). AIMS III assessed four different scenarios of power system in the ASEAN countries that include a base scenario and three additional scenarios (called optimum RE, ASEAN RE, and High RE) considering different levels of deployment of renewable energy (RE) and cross-border generation and trade of electricity for three years (2025, 2030, 2040). In this work, we quantify the potential air quality and public health co-benefits of AIMS III scenarios. For a rapidly expanding, energy hungry region like SE Asia generation is power generation is expected to increase significantly. The AIMS III scenarios' capacity expansion modeling suggest that: 1) Generation nearly doubles from 2025 to 2040 in all four AIMS III scenarios; 2) Most of the increased generation is met by coal in all four AIMS III scenarios; 3) While renewables generation increases in all four AIMS III scenarios, the fraction of total generation (its share) generally decreases because of the much greater increase in non-renewable sources, mostly coal. Only in the High RE Target scenario do renewables represent a higher share in 2040 than in 2025, though even here it is at the expense of natural gas rather than coal; 4) As a result, emissions of gaseous and aerosol pollutants increase significantly in all scenarios. Because emissions increase in 2040 compared to 2025 for all four AIMS III scenarios, so do PM2.5 concentrations. Even for the High RE Target scenario (the scenario with highest share of renewable energy), compared to the Base scenario in 2025, in 2040 PM2.5 concentrations are higher. Compared to the Base scenario in the same years, the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target scenarios do not differ very much from the Base in terms of PM2.5 concentration. The High RE Target scenario, on the other hand, yields noticeably lower PM2.5 concentration. For example, in 2040 the population-weighted decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration in the High RE Target scenario relative to the Base scenario is 0.5 ug m-3. Compared to the Base scenario in 2040, each of the alternative AIMS III scenarios is estimated to result in net reductions in power-sector air quality-related excess mortality in the ASEAN region. Yet there are a few countries for which the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target result in increases in PM2.5-related excess mortality (Thailand and Vietnam for the ASEAN RE Target scenario and Thailand for the Optimum RE scenario). However, for the High RE Target scenario, all countries benefit and find reductions in excess mortality resulting from the power sector scenarios modeled in AIMS III with regionwide mortality decreasing by 16,000 compared to the Base scenario in 2040. In summary, our analysis finds that changing power generation emissions is a crucial lever for improving public health in ASEAN member countries and provides a pathway for policymakers to make decision backed by a realistic power sector expansion and air quality analyses.

air quality↗

Introduction to Microgrids

A microgrid is simply a typical power system that has distributed energy resources (DERs), like small diesel generators, with loads in the network. The resiliency offered by microgrids to retain service during system events makes them a suitable support for the electric grid during natural disasters. One key factor that differentiates microgrids from a typical distribution grid is its ability to disconnect itself in the event of a blackout and sustain its loads through DERs. Microgrid systems will reconnect to the main grid when the grid comes back up. The resiliency offered by microgrids to retain service during system events makes them a suitable support for the electric grid during natural disasters. This presentation discusses the typical key steps involved in microgrid planning, installation, operation in a interoperable and interconnectable fashion.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Technical and Economic Analysis

This report presents an analytical methodology to identify alternative options to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines for distribution system-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems not co-located with load. Specifically, the report details the methodology and results of an analysis that: 1. Identifies potential grid violations that would be induced by a PV system requesting interconnection to a distribution circuit; 2. Identifies multiple technically viable options for mitigating the potential violations, including infrastructure upgrades, downsizing the PV system size, curtailment of PV, and addition of battery energy storage; 3. Defines the required technical operating parameters of the system in order to mitigate all potential violations (the "Operating Envelope"); 4. Compares the economics of each option, from the PV developer's perspective. The analysis supports the ongoing evolution of interconnection standards for combined PV and energy storage systems by providing a methodology to define allowable maximum export limits during each hour. The methodology presented could be used by utilities as part of the interconnection study process, to inform negotiations with DER developers and the drafting of mutually acceptable interconnection agreements. The resulting technical operating parameters could be included as part of the interconnection service agreement (ISA) between the system owner and the utility company. The companion report to this analysis, Gill et al. (2022), details the envisioned framework for the implementation of the technical operating parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Role of the U.S. Electric Distribution System in Serving Data Center and Other Large Loads

The rapid expansion of data centers in the United States is reshaping how the electric distribution system must plan for and accommodate large load interconnections. This report evaluates the role of the distribution grid in serving these loads, from small edge facilities to hyperscale campuses. Using national datasets, utility filings, and industry studies, we assess demand growth, reliability requirements, interconnection thresholds, and infrastructure needs at substations and feeders. The analysis highlights the mismatch between fast data center development timelines and slower utility planning and construction cycles, as well as strategies such as phased energization, on-site generation, hosting capacity maps, and structured interconnection frameworks. While focused on data centers, the insights also apply to other high-density loads such as advanced manufacturing, hydrogen production, and electrified transportation. The report concludes with approaches to align planning processes, transparency tools, and regulatory frameworks so utilities can manage new large loads in ways that support a reliable and resilient grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WECC Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study Report

This project, Wide-area Oscillation Analysis and Trending Study, is sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE) who tasked Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct this research. Staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have been involved in the project as observers and have provided advisory comments and suggestions. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the wide-area oscillatory behavior with respect to the significant generation-mix changes brought by the increased penetration of RES in the WECC system. The work performed in this project is considered to be complimentary to previous work by NERC/industry and covers the aspects that have not been studied or trended before. The trending analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the WECC system. In this report, how the changes in the generation mix can impact the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of WECC wide-area oscillation modes has been studied. Thorough data-based and model-based analyses have been carried out to analyze the current trends and then extended to evaluate the oscillation behaviors of the future WECC system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Residential Solar Adoption Timelines and Impacts from the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this study we evaluate PII and other PV adoption timelines from 2017-2021. We use project-level data collected by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the Solar Time-Based Residential Analytics and Cycle Time Estimator (SolarTRACE). Additionally, we conducted a survey of 171 AHJs about their experiences, challenges, and process changes during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey findings were supplemented with follow up interviews with 5 AHJs from 4 states. We find that the pandemic moderately increased the duration and variability of pre-install timelines (contract signing to install), particularly in the permit review phase (permit submit to approval). In contrast, post-install timelines (install to final utility interconnection) continued to decline during the pandemic. The net result is that overall project timelines (contract signing to final interconnection) continued to decline during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that AHJs and installers faced challenges throughout the pandemic but ongoing improvements in PII processes - particularly post-install processes - more than offset these challenges. Furthermore, the pandemic may have catalyzed or accelerated a widespread adoption of online/electronic permitting, among other process efficiency improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Opportunities for installed combined heat and power (CHP) to increase grid flexibility in the U.S.

Increasing use of renewable energy requires sufficient grid flexibility to address uncertainty and variability in electricity generation. Previous studies suggest that combined heat and power (CHP) systems may support grid flexibility but they do not consider operating hours. In this paper, we used CHP operating data and determined annual and monthly availability of the installed CHP capacity from various sectors (e.g., utility, independent power producer, commercial, and industrial) in all seven U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Also, we estimated hourly CHP availability installed in five facility types (i.e., hospitals, universities, hotels, offices, and manufacturing) in the state of New York. The results show that regardless of ISO/RTO, sector, or season, more than 40% of the installed CHP capacity (0.7–8.7 GW) was not fully utilized in 2019; the results are similar for 2018. This available CHP capacity accounted for up to 9% of the ISO/RTO's peak electric demand, which may yield cost savings up to $16 billion by avoiding installation costs of new natural gas combustion or combined-cycle turbines. To exploit the available CHP capacity to enhance grid flexibility, we recommend different policy implications including flexible contract lengths between CHP owners and grid operators, improved market designs, and simplified interconnection standards.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design and implementation of I/O performance prediction scheme on HPC systems through large-scale log analysis

Abstract Large-scale high performance computing (HPC) systems typically consist of many thousands of CPUs and storage units used by hundreds to thousands of users simultaneously. Applications from large numbers of users have diverse characteristics, such as varying computation, communication, memory, and I/O intensity. A good understanding of the performance characteristics of each user application is important for job scheduling and resource provisioning. Among these performance characteristics, I/O performance is becoming increasingly important as data sizes rapidly increase and large-scale applications, such as simulation and model training, are widely adopted. However, predicting I/O performance is difficult because I/O systems are shared among all users and involve many layers of software and hardware stack, including the application, network interconnect, operating system, file system, and storage devices. Furthermore, updates to these layers and changes in system management policy can significantly alter the I/O behavior of applications and the entire system. To improve the prediction of the I/O performance on HPC systems, we propose integrating information from several different system logs and developing a regression-based approach to predict the I/O performance. Our proposed scheme can dynamically select the most relevant features from the log entries using various feature selection algorithms and scoring functions, and can automatically select the regression algorithm with the best accuracy for the prediction task. The evaluation results show that our proposed scheme can predict the write performance with up to 90% prediction accuracy and the read performance with up to 99% prediction accuracy using the real logs from the Cori supercomputer system at NERSC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Repowering: The Other Side of the Reliability Coin

Extreme weather, cracked backsheets, severe PID, poorly built modules, and installation flaws - all can compromise a solar plant's health and force repowering long before end of life. With more than 70% of U.S. PV capacity less than seven years old, the fleet is young, but its rapid expansion has introduced new materials and system designs that are still being tested under real-world conditions. As a result, reliability - not economics - is what most often drives repowering decisions. Repowering is frequently assumed to be an economically motivated choice, but our work shows that reliability concerns are the real trigger. Drawing from industry interviews, case studies, and modeling, we highlight the physical, electrical, and policy barriers owners face when deciding whether to repair, repower, or decommission. At the same time, repowering can create opportunities: renewed interconnection periods, improved energy yields, and strategic upgrades to extend system value. We present a quantitative framework using NLR's System Advisor Model (SAM) and PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to evaluate trade-offs across financial, material, and energy impacts. These findings provide practical guidance for navigating the realities of repowering today and underscore the critical role of reliability in shaping the future performance and sustainability of the PV fleet.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Grid connection barriers to renewable energy deployment in the United States

Bulk-power grid connection is an emerging bottleneck to the entry of wind, solar, and storage but has been understudied due to a lack of data. We create and analyze two novel interconnection datasets with more than 38,000 project-level observations that provide new information documenting interconnection challenges in the United States. Active grid connection requests are more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 vs. 1,280 GW). The time required to secure a connection has increased by 70% over the last decade, and withdrawal rates remain high at 80%, suggesting a constrained transmission system that jeopardizes energy transition targets. Wide distributions of interconnection costs indicate the inherent uncertainty of the interconnection process. Interconnection requests that identify large transmission upgrades tend to withdraw from the process. These findings suggest the need for interconnection reforms, tighter links between long-term transmission planning and project-level interconnection processes, and more interconnection outcome transparency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗