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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Innovative, Versatile and Cost-Effective Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stack Concept

This report summarizes the work performed for the U. S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0026211 entitled “Innovative, Versatile and Cost-Effective Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stack Concept”. The overall objective of this project was to develop and evaluate a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack configuration based on a novel prime-surface interconnect design for a broad range of power generation applications. The prime-surface is a one-piece metallic interconnect that incorporates both fuel and oxidant flow fields with peaks on one side of the interconnect serving as flow channels (valleys) on the other side. (One example is the egg-carton shaped interconnect design.) This stack technology has several attractive features including reduced stack weight and volume, decreased performance losses in stacking, improved sealing, versatility in incorporation of different types of cell construction (thin-film cells or sintered cells) and flexibility in gas flow configuration (cross-flow, co-flow or counter-flow). These features lead to lower cost, better performance, and enhanced reliability for the stack. The R&D work of this project focused on demonstrating fabrication, operability and cost effectiveness of the stack design and was conducted by University of California, San Diego (UCSD) in conjunction with OxEon Energy (OxEon). The key technical activities of this project involved prime-surface interconnect design and fabrication development; supported thin-film cell structure development; stack development; stack operation demonstration; and stack cost assessment. The results of these activities are summarized in this report.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS1983

Reaction of cobalt in SO2 atmospheric at elevated temperatures

The reaction rate of cobalt in SO2 argon environments was measured at 650 C, 700 C, 750 C and 800 C. Product scales consist primarily of an interconnected sulfide phase in an oxide matrix. At 700 C to 800 C a thin sulfide layer adjacent to the metal is also observed. At all temperatures, the rapid diffusion of cobalt outward through the interconnected sulfide appears to be important. At 650 C, the reaction rate slows dramatically after five minutes due to a change in the distribution of these sulfides. At 700 C and 750 C the reaction is primarily diffusion controlled values of diffusivity of cobalt (CoS) calculated from this work show favorable agreement with values of diffusivity of cobalt (CoS) calculated from previous sulfidation work. At 800 C, a surface step becomes rate limiting.

Jacobson, N. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Reaction of cobalt in SO2 atmospheres at elevated temperatures

The reaction rate of cobalt in SO2 argon environments was measured at 650 C, 700 C, 750 C and 800 C. Product scales consist primarily of an interconnected sulfide phase in an oxide matrix. At 700 C to 800 C, a thin sulfide layer adjacent to the metal is also observed. At all temperatures, the rapid diffusion of cobalt outward through the interconnected sulfide appears to be important. At 650 C, the reaction rate slows dramatically after five minutes due to a change in the distribution of these sulfides. At 700 C and 750 C, the reaction is primarily diffusion controlled; values of diffusivity of cobalt (CoS) calculated from this work show favorable agreement with values of diffusivity of cobalt (CoS) calculated from previous sulfidation work. At 800 C, a surface step becomes rate limiting. Previously announced in STAR as N83-35104

Jacobson, N. S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Best Practices at the End of Photovoltaic System Performance Period

Responsible and cost-effective dissolution of photovoltaic (PV) system hardware at the end of the performance period has emerged as an important business and environmental consideration. Alternatives include extending the performance period and existing contracts for power purchase, lease, and utility interconnect; refurbishing the plant by correcting any deficiencies; repowering the plant with new PV modules and inverters; or decommissioning the plant and removing all the hardware from the site. Often key decisions are made very early in the project development and might require decommissioning by some certain date after the end of a power purchase agreement. To “abandon in place” is not an alternative acceptable to landowners and regulators, so any financial prospectus should include costs associated with decommissioning, even if those costs are deferred by extending operations, refurbishment, or repowering. Decommissioning costs are driven by regulations regarding the handling and disposal of waste, with reuse and recycling of PV modules and other components preferred as a way to reduce both costs and environmental impact. Each alternative is discussed with order-of-magnitude costs, and recommendations are provided considering site-specific details of that situation, such as estimated costs to refurbish or repower, projected revenue from continued operations, and tax considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mapping of the solar wind electric field on the earth's polar caps

A quantitative model of a magnetically interconnected (open) magnetosphere is developed as a perturbation of Voight's closed magnetosphere model with a given magnetopause shape. The model is shown to give a reasonable representation of the open magnetosphere configuration and is especially useful in testing the magnetospheric consequences of various merging theories. The convection pattern obtained for southward IMF is in reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the manifestation of a convection 'throat' near noon. For northward IMF, this region of constricted flow is rotated in local time in the direction of the IMF, also in accordance with observations.

Toffoletto, F. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knots are not for naught: Design, properties, and topology of hierarchical intertwined microarchitected materials

Lightweight and tough engineered materials are often designed with three-dimensional hierarchy and interconnected structural members whose junctions are detrimental to their performance because they serve as stress concentrations for damage accumulation and lower mechanical resilience. We introduce a previously unexplored class of architected materials, whose components are interwoven and contain no junctions, and incorporate micro-knots as building blocks within these hierarchical networks. Tensile experiments, which show close quantitative agreements with an analytical model for overhand knots, reveal that knot topology allows a new regime of deformation capable of shape retention, leading to a ~92% increase in absorbed energy and an up to ~107% increase in failure strain compared to woven structures, along with an up to ~11% increase in specific energy density compared to topologically similar monolithic lattices. Our exploration unlocks knotting and frictional contact to create highly extensible low-density materials with tunable shape reconfiguration and energy absorption capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tensile Modeling PVC Gels for Electrohydraulic Actuators

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)-dibutyl adipate (DBA) gels are a fascinating dielectric elastomer actuator showing promise in soft robotics. When actuated with high voltages, the gel deforms towards the anode. A recent application of PVC gels in electrohydraulic actuators motivates elastic and hyperelastic constitutive relationships for tensile loading modes. PVC gels with plasticizer-to-polymer weight ratios of 2:1, 4:1, 6:1, and 8:1 w/w were evaluated. PVC gels exhibit a linear elastic region up to 25% strain. The elastic modulus decreased with increasing plasticizer content from 288.8 kPa, 56.1 kPa, 24.7 kPa, to 11 kPa. Poisson’s ratio also decreased with increasing plasticizer content from 0.42, 0.43, 0.39, to 0.35. We suggest that the decrease in polymer concentration facilitates a weakly interconnected polymer network susceptible to chain slippage that hinders the network response, thus lowering Poisson’s ratio. Our work suggests that PVC gels can be treated as isotropic and incompressible for large strains and hyperelastic modeling; however, highly plasticized gels tend to act less incompressible at small strains. The power scaling law between the elastic modulus and plasticizer weight ratio showed high agreement, making the elastic modulus deterministic for any plasticizer content. The Neo–Hookean, Mooney–Rivlin, Yeoh, Gent, Ogden, and extended tube hyperelastic constitutive models are investigated. The Yeoh model shows the highest feasibility when evaluated up to 3.5 stretch, showing a maximum normalized root-mean-square-error of 6.85%. Together, these findings establish a constitutive basis for PVC-DBA gels, incorporating small strain elasticity, large strain non-linear behavior, and network analysis while providing suggestive insight into the network structure required for accurately modeling the EPIC.

Polymer Science↗
NASA NTRS1936

Analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings with special reference to torsion and load transference

This report deals with the analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings in torsion, taking cognizance of the fact that the spars are not independent, but are interconnected by ribs and other structural members. The principles of interaction are briefly explained, showing that the mutual relief action occurring depends on the "pure torsional stiffness" of the wing cross section. Various practical methods of analysis are outlined. The "Friedrichs-Von Karman equations" are shown to require the least amount of labor. Numerical examples by the several methods of analysis are given and the agreement between the calculation and experiment is shown.

Kuhn, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the impact of multivalent substitution on high-temperature electrical conductivity in doped lanthanum chromite perovskites: An experimental and ab-initio study

Doped LaCrO 3 perovskites hold promise as robust materials for electrical interconnects and sensor applications in harsh environments. In this work, we investigated the high-temperature behavior of La 1–x Sr x CrO 3 , La 1–x Ca x CrO 3 and La 0.8 Sr 0.2 Cr 1-x Mn x O3 (0.1 ≤ x ≤ 0.4) through a combination of computational modeling and physical characterization up to 1500 °C. Crystalline structural properties were determined and compared with ab-initio calculations, which demonstrated excellent agreement with experimental findings. High-temperature electrical conductivity measurements were performed under different atmospheres. Calcium and strontium/manganese co-doped lanthanum chromites exhibited typical semiconductor exponential trends and conductivity showed proportional correlation with substitutions levels up to 30 %. The DFT modelling was completed up to 1500 °C, including low and high temperature chromite phases and oxygen vacancies insertion. Calculations were correlated with experimental electrical properties. This work expands the understanding of doped lanthanum chromites and paves the way for the development of materials suitable for demanding high-temperature applications.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Topology driven and soft phonon mode enabled Na-ion diffusion in quaternary chalcogenides, Na 3 ZnGaX 4 (X = S, and Se)

The compounds Na 3 ZnGaX 4 (X = S, Se) are potential solid electrolyte materials in sodium-based batteries, which have certain advantages over oxide materials and have shown significant ionic conductivity at ambient temperature. In this paper, we bring out atomic-level features of the diffusion process in these new materials using the microscopic techniques of inelastic neutron scattering (INS), quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS), and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. The insights obtained from these techniques are unique and not available from other macroscopic experiments. Neutron scattering experiments have been performed at temperatures from 100 to 700 K. The simulations have been carried out up to 900 K. We have calculated the phonon spectra and the space–time correlation functions and found good agreement with the results of the neutron scattering experiments. The simulations enable detailed analysis of the atomic-site dependent dynamical information. We observe low-energy phonon modes of ~6 meV involving the vibrations of certain Na atoms in the lattice. This reveals that the Na at 32g Wyckoff sites (Na2) has sufficiently shallow potential among the two available crystallographic sites. This shallow potential facilitates diffusion. Furthermore, the specific structural topology of the network of interconnected zig-zag chains of the Na2 atomic sites provides the low-barrier energy pathways for diffusion. A small fraction of vacancy defects appears essential for diffusion. We further observe that the Na2 atoms undergo jump-like diffusion to the vacant next or the 2nd next neighbour sites at ~4 Å. While the QENS experiments reveal the jump-like diffusion and its time scale, detailed analysis of the AIMD simulations shows that the jumps appear mostly along zig-zag chains of the Na2 sites in the tetragonal ab-plane, as well as between the chains along the c-axis. In conclusion, the net diffusion is essentially 3-dimensional, with little anisotropy despite the anisotropy of the tetragonal crystal structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1987

CMOS detector cells for holographic optical interconnects in microcircuits

This paper reports on the characterization of CMOS detectors for holographic optical interconnects in micro circuits. A VLSI temporal response system has been built, which has high-magnification viewing capabilities to facilitate the identification of the sample area under investigation. An isolated photodiode and load circuit has been characterized to determine responsivity, response time, and light spot positioning effects. The threshold of optical gate cells incorporating the above detectors and a transistor inverter stage to couple to other circuitry has been determined. The rise time and fall time of the optical gate cells have also been determined experimentally. The results were compared with the results of SPICE simulation, and show satisfactory agreement. The time delay of optical gate cell output was thus determined to be 70 ns at 10 microW light input. Threshold power was 0.5 microW light input.

Wu, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Application of neural network to remote sensing of soil moisture using theoretical polarimetric backscattering coefficients

This paper investigates the potential application of neural network to inversion of soil moisture using polarimetric remote sensing data. The neural network used for the inversion of soil parameters is multi-layer perceptron trained with the back-propagation algorithm. The training data include the polarimetric backscattering coefficients obtained from theoretical surface scattering models together with an assumed nominal range of soil parameters which are comprised of the soil permittivity and surface roughness parameters. Soil permittivity is calculated from the soil moisture and the assumed soil texture based on an empirical formula at C-, L-, and P-bands. The rough surface parameters for the soil surface, which is described by the Gaussian random process, are the root-mean-square (rms) height and correlation length. For the rough surface scattering, small perturbation method is used for the L-band frequency, and Kirchhoff approximation is used for the C-band frequency to obtain the corresponding backscattering coefficients. During the training, the backscattering coefficients are the inputs to the neural net and the output from the net are compared with the desired soil parameters to adjust the interconnecting weights. The process is repeated for each input-output data entry and then for the entire training data until convergence is reached. After training, the backscattering coefficients are applied to the trained neural net to retrieve the soil parameters which are compared with the desired soil parameters to verify the effectiveness of this technique. Several cases are examined. First, for simplicity, the correlation length and rms height of the soil surface are fixed while soil moisture is varied. Soil moisture obtained using the neural networks with either L-band or C-band backscattering coefficients for the HH and VV polarizations as inputs is in good agreement with the desired soil moisture. The neural net output matches the desired output for the soil moisture range of 16 to 60 percent for the C-band case. The next case investigated is to vary both soil moisture and rms height while keeping the correlation length fixed. For this case, C-band backscattering coefficients are not sufficient for retrieving two parameters because the Kirchhoff approximation gives the same HH and VV backscattering coefficients. Therefore, the backscattering coefficients at two different frequency bands are necessary to find both the soil moisture and rms height. Finally, the neural nets are also applied to simultaneously invert soil moisture, rms height, and correlation length. Overall, the soil moisture retrieved from the neural network agrees very well with the desired soil moisture. This suggests that the neural network shows potential for retrieval of soil parameters from remote sensing data.

Wang, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Martian Dust Abrasion Damage on Solar Arrays: HALT Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

We explored the utility of ground-based highly accelerated life testing (HALT) on epitaxial lift-off (ELO) triple-junction coverglass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to simulated Martian dust storms. Dust storm impingement was replicated by sandblasting CICs with Mars dust simulant replicating conditions similar to the weather conditions reported by the Viking landers. We observed that even in cases when there are no observable open circuit voltage (VOC) losses, the minority carrier lifetime is reduced. Short circuit current (JSC) losses can be recovered upon cleaning, suggesting JSC losses are not linked to permanent damage, like cell cracking. This suggests a permanent degradation could be determined by quantifying the difference between recoverable and non-recoverable power loss. We mined field data from the Mars Exploration Rover, Opportunity and extracted a degradation rate to compare to our experimental data. We found exceptional agreement between 4.9 Martian years of mined field data (9.4%) and the irreversible damage observed in our HALT experiment (9.7%). We demonstrate that the laboratory method for exposing CICs to Martian dust storm conditions well represents the physical reality of long duration CIC operation on Mars.

Lyndsey McMillon-Brown↗
DOE OSTI2020

Utility-Scale Solar Data Update (2020 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s 2020 update of utility-scale solar data and trends provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2019. Highlights of this year’s update include: More than 4.5 GWAC of utility-scale solar (i.e., ground-mounted solar projects larger than 5 MWAC) achieved commercial operations in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GWAC. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. The median installed cost of projects that came online in 2019 fell to $\$$1.4/WAC ($\$$1.2/WDC), down 20% from 2018 and down by more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. Average capacity factors range from 17% in the least-sunny regions to 30% where it is sunniest. Single-axis tracking adds roughly five percentage points to capacity factor in the regions with the strongest solar resource. Nationwide average levelized power purchase agreement (PPA) prices fell to $\$$24/MWh in 2019, down 17% from 2018 and more than 80% since 2010. Thirty-nine projects (totaling 4.2 GWAC) in our PPA price sample include battery storage (totaling 2.3 GWAC and 9.5 GWh). In the “lower 48” states, a number of these recent PV+battery PPAs have been inked in the mid-$\$$20/MWh range (levelized in 2019 dollars).Not including the 30% investment tax credit (ITC), the median levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from utility-scale PV has declined by 85% since 2010, to $\$$40/MWh in 2019. When the 30% ITC is included within the LCOE calculation, the median LCOE closely tracks the median PPA price over time. In higher-penetration markets like CAISO, the value of solar has been declining, but falling PPA prices have largely kept pace, preserving solar's net value. At the end of 2019, there were nearly 370 GW of solar in interconnection queues from all 7 ISOs and 30 additional utilities across the country. Nearly a third of this proposed solar capacity is paired with battery storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experiment-modeling studies comparing energy dissipation in the DIII-D SAS and SAS-VW divertors

Recent DIII-D experiments on Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertors have confirmed that a combination of divertor closure and target shaping can enhance cooling across the divertor target and increase energy dissipation, but with significant dependence on B T (toroidal magnetic field) direction. In these novel divertors, the roles of closure, target shaping, drifts, and scale lengths are all interconnected in optimizing dissipation, with the separatrix electron density n eSEP being the key parameter associated with the level of dissipation/detachment. After modifying the original flat-targeted graphite SAS to include a V shape with a tungsten coating on the outer side of the divertor (SAS-VW), matched series of discharges were run to compare to detailed SOLPS-ITER modeling. Experimentally, when run as designed with the outer strike point at the slot vertex, SAS-VW requires nearly identical n eSEP for detachment as the original SAS, with little difference in dissipation for the new geometry. This is in contrast to (1) earlier modeling predictions that a small change of the SAS geometry to a V shape should enhance dissipation at the same n eSEP for magnetic configurations having better H-mode access (ion B × ∇B drift directed into the divertor), and (2) despite the achievement of significantly higher (2-7x) neutral pressures and compression in the SAS-VW slot. Comparisons of experimental density scans to the most recent SOLPS-ITER modeling with ExB drifts show reasonable agreement for dissipation/detachment onset when using separatrix density as the independent parameter. In order to help understand the discrepancy in modeled vs actual performance for the new configuration, additional measurements varying gas injection location and impurity injection were undertaken. In-slot D 2 gas fueling is more effective (5–22 %) in promoting detachment, in accord with modeling. In-slot impurity injection (N 2 or Ne) can yield 30 % lower core Z eff and 15 % less confinement degradation after detachment compared to main chamber puffing, as well as relatively lower tungsten leakage from the divertor. Modeling can also reproduce the improved detachment seen as the strike point moves inboard of the slot vertex. While we can explain the effects of the most important parameters causing energy dissipation in these slot divertors, it remains that many aspects of their behavior cannot be accurately modeled using state-of-art codes such as SOLPS-ITER. This is of concern for future model-driven designs utilizing similar V-shaped geometries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗