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DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model data for Flood Frequency Analysis using Stochastic Storm Transposition and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model

This archived provides scripts and input files used for the implementation of a novel approach to conduct process-based Flood Frequency Analysis using a Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM). As a proof-of-concept, this study uses the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct flood frequency analysis by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a ~2000 km2 Southeast Texas watershed.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include TXT, CSV, DAT, SBATCH, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model and RainyDay model have .XML and .SST extensions, respectively, and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.This archive contains:* Scripts and data files essential for generating the ATS model input. It uses the Watershed Workflow package to produce both mesh and ATS input files. * Jupyter notebooks designated for the ATS model evaluation, covering both long-term simulations and 40 rainfall-runoff events.* Input files required to simulate SST storm events using RainyDay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript.Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (10s of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow, and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) -- Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30% of the watershed area). However, the 4 km resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications on model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of distributed process-based hydrologic model performance using only a priori information to define model inputs

Fully distributed, integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have seen renewed interest due to availability of better software, high performance computing facilities, and high-resolution, spatially extensive data products. ISSHMs are valuable as tools for advancing system understanding as they can resolve multiple processes defined on the plot scale including three-dimensional interaction of surface water and groundwater. Here, we evaluated the performance of an ISSHM, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), on seven diverse catchments across the continental US using widely available data products to define model inputs without calibration. We compare the ATS-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with gauge observations and MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, respectively. Using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) as metric, ATS with default data products performed reasonably well at 6 of 7 catchments for streamflow. However, in one of those 6 catchments ATS had poor performance on baseflow and ATS’s overall performance was thus judged to be inadequate despite the acceptable KGE. ATS performance for evapotranspiration was good in all 7 catchments using default data products. In the two catchments where ATS streamflow performance using default data products was not acceptable, the performance was significantly improved by using local information on subsurface properties below the soil. We also compare the model-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with the Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model, a semi-distributed model that was calibrated on a catchment-by-catchment basis. Uncalibrated ATS performance is comparable to the calibrated SAC-SMA model in terms of streamflow while ATS performance is similar to or better (much better in certain catchments) in reproducing MODIS-derived evapotranspiration. Reasonably good performance of ATS without catchment-specific calibration provides new confidence in the ISSHM class of models and community data products as tools for advancing understanding of watershed function in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) integrated hydrology and reactive transport model output in Copper Creek, Colorado

This dataset is generated using the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) model at Copper Creek, Colorado, the largest catchment in the East River watershed. ATS is an integrated hydrology and reactive transport model to simulate the Concentration-Discharge (C-Q) relationship, and is used to quantify the geochemical export and understand how watersheds respond to climate disturbances. Key hydrogeochemical variables, including discharge, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and geochemical concentrations, were simulated and output at a daily frequency at the Copper Creek outlet. A group of hydrology and geochemical model variables over the spatial domain are output at a bi-monthly frequency. The model used 1-km resolution daily frequency Daymet meteorological forcing, and mineral composition from previous studies. The simulations are performed on NERSC. The datasets include the input files for running the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) simulation, including the mesh file, input script and geochemical model files. The output files from the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) are the daily time-series discharge and geochemical concentration simulated at the outlet of Copper Creek, and the bi-monthly spatial output over the simulation domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Data for the Mesh Convergence Study Demonstrating Benefits of Mixed-polyhedral Mesh in Integrated Hydrology Simulations

This archived model data is related to a study introducing a unique method that employs a stream-aligned mixed-polyhedral mesh to effectively and accurately represent river valleys, stream corridors, and narrow engineered channels in integrated hydrology simulations. The study finds that utilizing stream-aligned mixed-polyhedral meshes in integrated hydrology simulations achieves accuracy on par with a finely refined TIN-based mesh while markedly diminishing computational costs. This archive contains scripts and data files needed to generate the ATS model input, including mesh and ATS input files, for all mesh scenarios using the Watershed Workflow package. Additionally, this archive also provides key outputs from the model simulations that are used in the analysis and post-processing scripts to reproduce figures in the manuscript. The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model, open-source integrated hydrology, and transport model are in XML format and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating AI with physics-based hydrological models and observations for insightinto changing climate and anthropogenic impacts

Focal Areas: Advanced computational methods that integrate AI, physics, and observations to provide predictive landscape hydrological modeling over large areas (regional, continental, worldwide) while incorporating increasingly available high-resolution data from drones, lidar and satellite. Science Challenge: Landscape data is available at finer scales than can be used in physics-based hydrological (PBH) models for regional or continental terrestrial water modeling. Thus, we throw away observable detail to achieve computability. We argue that integration of AI with PBH models and observed data can be used to provide upscaling for predictive models that are computable, retain physical conservation properties, and represent the fine-scale features that affect complex flow physics through both natural and urban environments. Developing such next-generation capabilities requires outside-the-box thinking that melds the different approaches of AI modeling, PBH modeling, and observation across multiple scales from local drones to satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
NASA NTRS2021

Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models

Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.

Gaia Stucky de Quay↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological connectivity: a review and emerging strategies for integrating measurement, modeling, and management

This review synthesizes methods for measuring, modeling, and managing hydrologic connectivity, offering pathways to improve practices and address environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) and sustainability. As a key driver of water movement and nutrient cycling, hydrologic connectivity influences flood mitigation, water quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field-based methods (e.g., dye tracing), indirect measurements (e.g., runoff analysis), and remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR) often struggle to capture the complexity of catchment-scale interactions. Similarly, modeling approaches—including process-based and percolation theory-based models, graph theory, and entropy-based metrics—face limitations in fully representing these interconnected processes. Both modeling and measurement techniques are constrained by inadequate spatial and temporal coverage, high data demands, computational complexity, and difficulties in representing subsurface connectivity. Subsequently, we critique current management practices that prioritize isolated variables (e.g., streamflow, sediment transport) over system-wide strategies and emphasize the need for adaptive, connectivity-based approaches in water resource planning and restoration. Moving forward, we highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, technological innovations (e.g., AI-driven modeling, real-time monitoring), and integrated frameworks to improve connectivity measurement, modeling, and adaptive management to restore fragmented hydrologic networks. This integrated approach sets the stage for transformative water resource management, fostering proactive policy development and stakeholder engagement.

Dwivedi, Dipankar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward more mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in river networks: Implementation and demonstration of a multiscale model

A recently introduced multiscale model for representing the effects of small-scale hyporheic-zone biogeochemical processes is extended from the reach scale to river network scales. The model uses advection-dispersion-reaction equations for the channel network and one-dimensional advection-reaction subgrid models for the hyporheic zone. We summarize implementation in the integrated surface/subsurface hydrology modeling system Amanzi-ATS. The extension uses topologically defined meshes to represent stream/river networks and associates a hyporheic subgrid model with each channel grid cell. Biogeochemical reaction modeling capability residing in community software is accessed through an application programming interface. The implementation is verified against independent numerical solutions on a single reach. Mesh convergence studies show that commonly used semi-distributed representations can introduce significant spatial discretization error. Denitrification of farm runoff in a subbasin of the Portage River Basin in Ohio, USA is used to demonstrate the general-purpose reactive transport capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward more mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in stream and river networks: Implementation and demonstration of a multiscale model : Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive supports the ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Waterhsed publication submitted to Environmental Modeling and Software. A recently introduced multiscale model for representing the combined effect of hyporheic exchange flows and small-scale hyporheic-zone biogeochemical processes is extended from the reach scale to river network scales. The ADELS (Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrid) model uses a one-dimensional advection-dispersion-reaction equation for the channel network and couples that equation at each channel location to a one-dimensional advection-reaction subgrid model representing an ensemble of streamlines that are diverted into the hyporheic zone before returning to the channel. The subgrid model is written in a computationally advantageous Lagrangian form with hyporheic age replacing the hyporheic travel distance. In the paper, we summarized implementation in the integrated surface/subsurface hydrology modeling system Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS).

East Fork Poplar Creek↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-model files associated with the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. We generated this data package in support of the manuscript and research reproducibility. The background of this study is that the streambed itself has not been explicitly represented in watershed models, although the streambed characteristics are significantly different from those of its surrounding soil. We aim to answer the following questions: 1) How do streambed properties including hydraulic conductivity, thickness and resolution impact the groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across the streambed? 2) Is an explicit representation of streambed important in watershed modeling?; 3) Is a high-resolution streambed needed for watershed simulations?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗