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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dose Consequence and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Integration into Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This is an intern poster presentation. The current reactor authorization process is complex and error prone. The development of a digital Documented Safety Analysis has been proposed to provide an automated and integrated solution to enhance the design and authorization process. The digital DSA will consist of interlinked models, analyses, and reports, all of which will be updated using automated workflows when design changes are made. This poster examines the integration of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with the transient and dose consequence analyses. A PRA for a generic high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) has been constructed which will drive the input parameters for a transient analysis model currently being constructed. Dose consequence will be determined using the results of the transient analysis and the Radiation Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) code. Dose consequence data will then be input back into the PRA to drive design parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/TP-7A40-90865.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Tool for Human-Systems Integration Assessment: HSI Scorecard

This paper describes the development and rationale for a human-systems integration (HSI) scorecard that can be used in reviews of vehicle specification and design. This tool can be used to assess whether specific HSI related criteria have been met as part of a project milestone or critical event, such as technical reviews, crew station reviews, mockup evaluations, or even review of major plans or processes. Examples of HSI related criteria include Human Performance Capabilities, Health Management, Human System Interfaces, Anthropometry and Biomechanics, and Natural and Induced Environments. The tool is not intended to evaluate requirements compliance and verification, but to review how well the human related systems have been considered for the specific event and to identify gaps and vulnerabilities from an HSI perspective. The scorecard offers common basis, and criteria for discussions among system managers, evaluators, and design engineers. Furthermore, the scorecard items highlight the main areas of system development that need to be followed during system lifecycle. The ratings provide a repeatable quantitative measure to what has been often seen as only subjective commentary. Thus, the scorecard is anticipated to be a useful HSI tool to communicate review results to the institutional and the project office management.

Whitmore, Nihriban↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adapting the Technology Performance Level Integrated Assessment Framework to Low-TRL Technologies Within the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Industry, Part I

With the urgent need to mitigate climate change and rising global temperatures, technological solutions that reduce atmospheric CO 2 are an increasingly important part of the global solution. As a result, the nascent carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) industry is rapidly growing with a plethora of new technologies in many different sectors. There is a need to holistically evaluate these new technologies in a standardized and consistent manner to determine which technologies will be the most successful and competitive in the global marketplace to achieve decarbonization targets. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) have been employed as rigorous methodologies for quantitatively measuring a technology's environmental impacts and techno-economic performance, respectively. However, these metrics evaluate a technology's performance in only three dimensions and do not directly incorporate stakeholder needs and values. In addition, technology developers frequently encounter trade-offs during design that increase one metric at the expense of the other. The technology performance level (TPL) combined indicator provides a comprehensive and holistic assessment of an emerging technology's potential, which is described by its techno-economic performance, environmental impacts, social impacts, safety considerations, market/deployability opportunities, use integration impacts, and general risks. TPL incorporates TEA and LCA outputs and quantifies the trade-offs between them directly using stakeholder feedback and requirements. In this article, the TPL methodology is being adapted from the marine energy domain to the CCUS domain. Adapted metrics and definitions, a stakeholder analysis, and a detailed foundation-based application of the systems engineering approach to CCUS are presented. The TPL assessment framework is couched within the internationally standardized LCA framework to improve technical rigor and acceptance. It is demonstrated how stakeholder needs and values can be directly incorporated, how LCA and TEA metrics can be balanced, and how other dimensions (listed earlier) can be integrated into a single metric that measures a technology's potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying co-benefits of water quality policies: An integrated assessment model of land and nitrogen management

Due to the nature of nitrogen cycling, policies designed to address water quality concerns have the potential to provide benefits beyond the targeted water quality improvements. For example, actions to protect water quality by reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture also reduce emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. These positive effects, which are incidental to the regulation's intended target, are termed “co-benefits.” To quantify the co-benefits associated with reduced nitrate leaching, we integrate an economic model of farmer decision making with a model of terrestrial nitrogen cycling for the watershed surrounding Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Our modeling approach provides a framework that links air and water pollutants in an agri-environmental system and offers a direction for future studies. Our model results highlight the finding that the co-benefits from nitrous oxide abatement are substantial, and their inclusion increases the benefit–cost ratio of water quality policies. Consideration of these co-benefits has the potential to reverse the conclusions of benefit–cost analysis in the assessment of current water quality policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

The value of assessing pulmonary venous flow velocity for predicting severity of mitral regurgitation: A quantitative assessment integrating left ventricular function

Although alteration in pulmonary venous flow has been reported to relate to mitral regurgitant severity, it is also known to vary with left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction. There are few data relating pulmonary venous flow to quantitative indexes of mitral regurgitation (MR). The object of this study was to assess quantitatively the accuracy of pulmonary venous flow for predicting MR severity by using transesophageal echocardiographic measurement in patients with variable LV dysfunction. This study consisted of 73 patients undergoing heart surgery with mild to severe MR. Regurgitant orifice area (ROA), regurgitant stroke volume (RSV), and regurgitant fraction (RF) were obtained by quantitative transesophageal echocardiography and proximal isovelocity surface area. Both left and right upper pulmonary venous flow velocities were recorded and their patterns classified by the ratio of systolic to diastolic velocity: normal (>/=1), blunted (<1), and systolic reversal (<0). Twenty-three percent of patients had discordant patterns between the left and right veins. When the most abnormal patterns either in the left or right vein were used for analysis, the ratio of peak systolic to diastolic flow velocity was negatively correlated with ROA (r = -0.74, P <.001), RSV (r = -0.70, P <.001), and RF (r = -0.66, P <.001) calculated by the Doppler thermodilution method; values were r = -0.70, r = -0.67, and r = -0.57, respectively (all P <.001), for indexes calculated by the proximal isovelocity surface area method. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the reversed pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a large ROA (>0.3 cm(2)) were 69%, 98%, and 97%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the normal pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a small ROA (<0.3 cm(2)) were 60%, 96%, and 94%, respectively. However, the blunted pattern had low sensitivity (22%), specificity (61%), and predictive values (30%) for detecting ROA of greater than 0.3 cm(2) with significant overlap with the reversed and normal patterns. Among patients with the blunted pattern, the correlation between the systolic to diastolic velocity ratio was worse in those with LV dysfunction (ejection fraction <50%, r = 0.23, P >.05) than in those with normal LV function (r = -0.57, P <.05). Stepwise linear regression analysis showed that the peak systolic to diastolic velocity ratio was independently correlated with RF (P <.001) and effective stroke volume (P <.01), with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.71 (P <.001). In conclusion, reversed pulmonary venous flow in systole is a highly specific and reliable marker of moderately severe or severe MR with an ROA greater than 0.3 cm(2), whereas the normal pattern accurately predicts mild to moderate MR. Blunted pulmonary venous flow can be seen in all grades of MR with low predictive value for severity of MR, especially in the presence of LV dysfunction. The blunted pulmonary venous flow pattern must therefore be interpreted cautiously in clinical practice as a marker for severity of MR.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2010

Integration Assessment of Visiting Vehicle Induced Electrical Charging of the International Space Station Structure

The International Space Station (ISS) undergoes electrical charging in low Earth orbit (LEO) due to positively biased, exposed conductors on solar arrays that collect electrical charges from the space plasma. Exposed solar array conductors predominately collect negatively charged electrons and thus drive the metal ISS structure electrical ground to a negative floating potential (FP) relative to plasma. This FP is variable in location and time as a result of local ionospheric conditions. ISS motion through Earth s magnetic field creates an addition inductive voltage up to 20 positive and negative volts across ISS structure depending on its attitude and location in orbit. ISS Visiting Vehicles (VVs), such as the planned Orion crew exploration vehicle, contribute to the ISS plasma charging processes. Upon physical contact with ISS, the current collection properties of VVs combine with ISS. This is an ISS integration concern as FP must be controlled to minimize arcing of ISS surfaces and ensure proper management of extra vehicular activity crewman shock hazards. This report is an assessment of ISS induced charging from docked Orion vehicles employing negatively grounded, 130 volt class, UltraFlex (ATK Space Systems) solar arrays. To assess plasma electron current collection characteristics, Orion solar cell test coupons were constructed and subjected to plasma chamber current collection measurements. During these tests, coupon solar cells were biased between 0 and 120 V while immersed in a simulated LEO plasma. Tests were performed using several different simulated LEO plasma densities and temperatures. These data and associated theoretical scaling of plasma properties, were combined in a numerical model which was integrated into the Boeing Plasma Interaction Model. It was found that the solar array design for Orion will not affect the ISS FP by more than about 2 V during worst case charging conditions. This assessment also motivated a trade study to determine acceptable plasma electron current levels that can be collected by a single or combined fleet of ISS-docked VVs.

Kramer, Leonard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Integrated Assessment of a G3 GMD Event on Large-Scale Power Grids: From Magnetometer Data to Geomagnetically Induced Current Analysis

Solar activities can cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) that give rise to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which may compromise the reliability of the power system. In order to build more reliable models representing GMD interactions with the power grid, the power system’s detailed electrical model must be considered along with fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic and induced surface electric fields. Here, this study investigates the impact of incorporating spatially varying magnetic fields into surface electric field models on GMD risk metrics. A spatially independent magnetic field model and a spatially varying model are compared through simulations. To perform this analysis, the earth’s magnetic field disturbances are transformed into surface electric fields using respective one-dimensional earth conductivity models. Then, the modeling impact of these electric fields is studied using a 2,000-bus grid for Texas and a 25,000-bus grid for the northeast and mid- Atlantic regions of the United States. Simulation results reveal that the inclusion of spatially varying magnetic fields results in considerable differences in GMD risk metrics, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial variability when assessing GMD risks in the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Grid Resilience: GCAM-to-PCM Scoping

Deep decarbonization towards a net-zero emissions future and the associated growth in power demand, renewables, and changes in water availability will require significant evolution in grid planning. Many obstacles threaten the viability of near-term generation capacity build out, including the need for large-scale transmission expansion. Current very-long term planning tools do not adequately model physical representations of economic dispatch and system topology down to inter- and intra-regional transmission and distribution infrastructure. This project attempts to fill that gap.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Considerations for a Co-Located Aquaculture and Wave Energy Deployment: Quantifying Demand and Assessing Integration

The co-location of marine energy and aquaculture is a concept of increasing value and interest in the United States, as the desire for sustainably produced seafood and renewable energy continues to grow. With both industries being fairly nascent in their national development and facing challenges, the deployment of a wave-powered aquaculture farm requires numerous considerations. This report analyzes the energy demands of an integrated multi-trophic aquaculture system at various farm scales and discusses the preliminary technical, regulatory, and logistical considerations required for a co-located deployment. A pilot-scale deployment is outlined with potentially ideal characteristics, and an optimized planning and permitting approach is introduced.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗