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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineered human vascular models to study endothelial dysfunction in infectious disease

Vascular involvement plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of numerous emerging viral threats, with climate changes amplifying the likelihood of these diseases evolving into pandemics. Establishing an infectable and physiologically relevant human in vitro model holds immense importance in comprehending the pathogenesis of these threats and devising effective countermeasures. Although in vivo models provide valuable insight into disease, their application is restricted by interspecies variations, particularly concerning pathogens exclusive to humans. Moreover, animal models often fail to replicate comorbidities prevalent in patient populations, thus limiting our understanding of disease behavior in humans. In this study, we have devised a testing platform aimed at exploring pathogen interactions with innate immunity within the vasculature, encompassing both healthy and dysfunctional endothelial conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-form Error Correction using Universal Differential Equations for an Agent-Based Model of Infectious Disease

This report demonstrates universal differential equations (UDEs) as an approach to bridge the gap between ordinary differential equations (ODE) models and agent-based models (ABMs). Using UDE models as surrogates for ABMs allows us to preserve the foundational ODE that represents global disease dynamics while coupling it with a neural network model to approximate functions for the local behaviors of the ABM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Deep Space Exploration: Will We Be Ready? Infectious Diseases, Microgravity and Other Forces Affecting Health Pose Challenges for Humans Planning to Explore Space

In contemplating space travel beyond earth orbits, we humans face significant barriers and major challenges. Although researchers involved in several scientific subdisciplines, including space medicine and space life sciences, may provide insights to help overcome those barriers, their efforts are at an early stage of development, leaving open many questions of potentially major consequence.

LaRocco, Mark T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Climate and infectious disease: use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement

It has long been known that cholera outbreaks can be initiated when Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium that causes cholera, is present in drinking water in sufficient numbers to constitute an infective dose, if ingested by humans. Outbreaks associated with drinking or bathing in unpurified river or brackish water may directly or indirectly depend on such conditions as water temperature, nutrient concentration, and plankton production that may be favorable for growth and reproduction of the bacterium. Although these environmental parameters have routinely been measured by using water samples collected aboard research ships, the available data sets are sparse and infrequent. Furthermore, shipboard data acquisition is both expensive and time-consuming. Interpolation to regional scales can also be problematic. Although the bacterium, V. cholerae, cannot be sensed directly, remotely sensed data can be used to infer its presence. In the study reported here, satellite data were used to monitor the timing and spread of cholera. Public domain remote sensing data for the Bay of Bengal were compared directly with cholera case data collected in Bangladesh from 1992-1995. The remote sensing data included sea surface temperature and sea surface height. It was discovered that sea surface temperature shows an annual cycle similar to the cholera case data. Sea surface height may be an indicator of incursion of plankton-laden water inland, e.g., tidal rivers, because it was also found to be correlated with cholera outbreaks. The extensive studies accomplished during the past 25 years, confirming the hypothesis that V. cholerae is autochthonous to the aquatic environment and is a commensal of zooplankton, i.e., copepods, when combined with the findings of the satellite data analyses, provide strong evidence that cholera epidemics are climate-linked.

Cholera/epidemiology↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spatial Analysis of West Nile Virus: Predictive Risk Modeling of a Vector-borne Infectious Disease in Illinois by Means of NASA Earth Observation Systems

West Nile Virus is a mosquito-borne virus of the family Flaviviridae. It infects birds and various mammals, including humans, and can cause encephalitis that may prove fatal, notably among vulnerable populations. Since its identification in New York City in 1999, WNV has become established in a broad range of ecological settings throughout North America, infecting more than 25,300 people and killing 1133 as of 2008 (CDC,2009). WNV is transmitted by mosquitoes that feed on infected birds. As a result, the degree of human infection depends on local ecology and human exposure. This study hypothesizes that remote sensing and GIS can be used to analyze environmental determinants of WNV transmission, such as climate, elevation, land cover, and vegetation densities, to map areas of WNV risk for surveillance and intervention.

Renneboog, Nathan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Earth Observations to Understand and Predict Infectious Diseases

This presentation discusses the processes from data collection and processing to analysis involved in unraveling patterns between disease outbreaks and the surrounding environment and meteorological conditions. We used these patterns to estimate when and where disease outbreaks will occur. As a case study, we will present our work on assessing the relationship between meteorological conditions and influenza in Central America. Our work represents the discovery, prescriptive and predictive aspects of data analytics.

public health↗