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Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗

Hydrogen Isotopic Composition of Apatite in Northwest Africa 7034: A Record of the "Intermediate" H-Isotopic Reservoir in the Martian Crust?

Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034 and its pairings comprise a regolith breccia with a basaltic bulk composition [1] that yields a better match than any other martian meteorite to visible-infrared reflectance spectra of the martian surface measured from orbit [2]. The composition of the fine-grained matrix within NWA 7034 bears a striking resemblance to the major element composition estimated for the martian crust, with several exceptions. The NWA 7034 matrix is depleted in Fe, Ti, and Cr and enriched in Al, Na, and P [3]. The differences in Al and Fe are the most substantial, but the Fe content of NWA 7034 matrix falls within the range reported for the southern highlands crust [6]. It was previously suggested by [4] that NWA 7034 was sourced from the southern highlands based on the ancient 4.4 Ga ages recorded in NWA 7034/7533 zircons [4, 5]. In addition, the NWA 7034 matrix material is enriched in incompatible trace elements by a factor of 1.2-1.5 [7] relative to estimates of the bulk martian crust. The La/Yb ratio of the bulk martian crust is estimated to be approximately 3 [7], and the La/Yb of the NWA 7034 matrix materials ranges from approximately 3.9 to 4.4 [3, 8], indicating a higher degree of LREE enrichment in the NWA 7034 matrix materials. This elevated La/Yb ratio and enrichment in incompatible lithophile trace elements is consistent with NWA 7034 representing a more geochemically enriched crustal terrain than is represented by the bulk martian crust, which would be expected if NWA 7034 represents the bulk crust from the southern highlands. Given the similarities between NWA 7034 and the martian crust, NWA 7034 may represent an important sample for constraining the composition of the martian crust, particularly the ancient highlands. In the present study, we seek to constrain the H isotopic composition of the martian crust using Cl-rich apatite in NWA 7034. Usui et al., [9] recently proposed that a H isotopic reservoir exists within the martian crust that has a H-isotopic composition that is intermediate (δD of 1000-2000per mille) between an isotopically light mantle (Delta D is less than 275per mille [10]) and an isotopically heavy atmosphere (δD of 2500-6100per mille [11, 12]). Apatites in NWA 7034 occur in a number of lithologic domains, however apatites across all lithologic domains have been affected by a Pb-loss event at about 1.5 Ga before present [5], so they are unlikely to have retained a primary composition and are more likely to have equilibrated with fluids within the martian crust that may or may not have exchanged with the martian atmosphere. Equilibration of apatite with crustal fluids is further supported by the chlorine-rich compositions exhibited by apatites in NWA 7034 in comparison to apatites from other martian meteorites (Figure 1; [13]). Cl is more hydrophilic than F, which promotes formation of Cl-rich apatite compositions in fluid-rich systems [e.g., 14, 15-17].

McCubbin, F. M.↗

H-Isotopic Composition of Apatite in Northwest Africa 7034

Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034 and its pairings comprise a regolith breccia with a basaltic bulk composition [1] that yields a better match than any other martian meteorite to estimates of Mars' bulk crust composition [1]. Given the similarities between NWA 7034 and the martian crust, NWA 7034 may represent an important sample for constraining the crustal composition of components that cannot be measured directly by remote sensing. In the present study, we seek to constrain the H isotopic composition of the martian crust using Cl-rich apatite in NWA 7034.

McCubbin, F. M.↗

A Diversity of Calcium-Rich Carbonates in EETA 79001

Carbonate minerals of martian origin are present in several martian meteorites in trace concentrations (less than 1 percent) and possess unique isotopic signatures that suggest that the martian environment and/or isotopic reservoirs are very different from the Earth’s. Carbonates are most common in the older martian meteorites (ALH 84001 and the nakhlites), however, there have been reports of carbonate in the younger shergottites including EETA 79001 (Mars meteorite Elephant Moraine 79001). Acidification studies of Zagami and Shergotty have shown that CO2 is released suggesting that carbonate phases are present in these meteorites, but the origin of these phases is controversial. The young ages of the shergottites makes them important samples for understanding the modern martian environment. The carbonates in EETA 79001 are the best-characterized secondary minerals in a shergottite, but their origin remains controversial. Gooding et al. argued that two types of carbonate occur with-in the glassy parts of the meteorite. One type, nearly pure CaCO3 associated with Ca-sulfate shows textural evidence for being present in the rock prior to it being shocked, suggesting formation on Mars. The second was more abundant and consists of Ca-rich carbonate, possibly with finely intergrown Mg-phosphate, but does not possess any textural relationships indicative of a martian origin. Carbon and oxygen isotopic studies of this carbonate yielded oxygen isotopes that potentially suggest a martian origin as well

Niles, P. B.↗

Mineralogy and Petrology of Fine-Grained Calcium-Aluminum-Rich Inclusions from the Reduced CV3 Chondrite Thiel Mountains 07007

Calcium-Aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) are among the oldest Solar System solids, and studies of these objects have played an essential role in developing an understanding of chemical and physical processes that initiated and characterized key events related to the Solar System’s formation and evolution. CAIs occur as μm- to cm-sized inclusions in chondritic meteorites, particularly in carbonaceous chondrites, and consist of various refractory silicate and oxide phases (e.g., melilite, spinel, Al-Ti-rich diopside, hibonite, and corundum) that are predicted by thermodynamic models to be among the first solids to con-dense from a cooling gas of solar composition. Fine grained CAIs (FGIs) are important samples to probe volatility-driven condensation processes in the solar nebula, because they have escaped thermal processes (e.g., melting) experienced by coarse-grained CAIs. In order to explore the primary nebular history of FGIs, a detailed mineralogical and petrologic study is necessary. In this research effort, we constrained the mineralogy and petrology of two CAIs 07-10 and -11 from the reduced CV3 chondrite Thiel Mountains (TIL) 07007, with the aim of evaluating their provenance as nebular condensates.

Anderkin, C. J.↗

Adaptive Stress Testing of Trajectory Predictions in Flight Management Systems

To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially resolve shortcomings of the system before deployment. To improve search performance, this work extends the adaptive stress testing formulation to be applied more generally to sequential decision-making problems with episodic reward by collecting the state transitions during the search and evaluating at the end of the simulated rollout. We use a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm with progressive widening as our adversarial reinforcement learner. The performance is compared to direct Monte Carlo simulations and to the cross-entropy method as an alternative importance sampling baseline. The goal is to find potential problems otherwise not found by traditional requirements-based testing. Results indicate that our adaptive stress testing approach finds more failures and finds failures with higher likelihood relative to the baseline approaches.

adaptive stress testing↗

Evidence for a Significant Kuiper Belt Dust Contribution to the Zodiacal Cloud

Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) are important samples of dust-producing objects in the solar system including many primitive and organic-rich bodies that are not sampled by known meteorites. IDPs spiral in towards the Sun under the influence of Poynting-Robertson (P-R) drag forces and are exposed to solar energetic particles (SEPs) that leave tracks of ionization damage in anhydrous silicate grains. We determined the exposure ages of track-rich IDPs using a new calibration of the SEP track production rate and show that track-rich IDPs have long exposure ages (>1 My) that preclude an origin from main-belt asteroids (MBAs) and Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). We propose that track-rich IDPs represent samples of dust produced by collisions among Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt objects (EKBOs) and that appreciable amounts of EKBO dust are contributing to the Zodiacal cloud. Many track-rich IDPs also contain abundant secondary minerals that provide direct evidence for past aqueous activity on some EKBOs.

Lindsay P. Keller↗

The Importance of Mars Samples in Constraining the Geological and Geophysical Processes on Mars and the Nature of Its Crust, Mantle, and Core

In situ compositional and mineralogical measurements on the Martian surface, combined with analyses of Martian meteorites, indicate that most igneous rocks are lavas and volcaniclastic rocks of basaltic composition and cumulates of ultramafic composition. Alkaline rocks are common in Early Hesperian terranes and tholeiitic rocks dominate younger Amazonian martian meteorites. Very uncommon feldspathic rocks represent the ultimate fractionation products, while granitoid rocks have not been identified. The impact-driven delivery mechanism for the Martian meteorites biases in favor of more competent samples - young, igneous rocks - and against rocks that are more representative of the Martian crust. Comparisons of rock types found among the meteorites to those documented by landed missions demonstrates this bias unequivocally; furthermore, of the over 100 martian lithologies represented by the martian meteorites, only one (NWA 7034 and pairs) is a regolith breccia.

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Generating Excitement and Increasing Awaressness of NASA Planetary Science and Astromaterials Assets

Students, educators, the public, and the scientific community are so often inspired by NASA science and exploration. Millions have joined NASA during live mission event broadcasts and also follow NASA on social media. Exploration of worlds in our solar system enable the scientific community to obtain and analyze data that provide clues to better understand the history and evolution of our solar system. Missions that collect and return samples to Earth from a target solar system body provide scientists with samples they can research and analyze in their laboratories. For those who are not planetary scientists, they may not understand the significance of these samples and/or the importance of sample return missions. The Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Science Engagement team, through work supported by NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Science Education Cooperative Agreement Notice NNH15ZDA004C, provides access to samples from NASA’s Astromaterials Collections through NASA sponsored exhibits at educator and scientific conferences, NASA relevant public outreach events, and collaborations with other Science Activation Teams supported by the SMD Cooperative Agreement Notice. The goal of this work is to generate excitement while enhancing knowledge and awareness of NASA’s unique assets, thus highlighting NASA planetary science and exploration.

Graff, P. V.↗

Reduction of Sample Rotation in Electrostatic Levitation

In many containerless processing systems, control of sample rotation is an important issue. Sample rotation is even more important for microgravity containerless processing systems, where the centrifugal acceleration can approach 1 g for even a small rotation rate. Prior work on rotation control by Rhim focused on driving the sample rotation at a controlled rate for droplet dynamics experiments and measurement of electrical conductivity. His technique allows controlled, fast rotation, but for many microgravity experiments the goal is zero rotation. To minimize sample rotation, two approaches are apparent: first, to identify and balance or eliminate the driving forces for undesired sample rotation, or second, implement a feedback-based rotation control loop in parallel with the position control loop. In this work, we have taken the first approach. To minimize sample rotation, the simplest approach is to identify and balance or eliminate the driving forces for undesired sample rotation. Our experiments show that the dominant driving force for rotation of machined Zr spheres in the MSFC ESL is photon pressure from the heating laser. Experimental results showing the correlation between heating power and torque are compared to theoretical predictions, and a strategy for minimizing the torque due to photon pressure is presented.

Hyers, R. W↗

A perception and manipulation system for collecting rock samples

An important part of a planetary exploration mission is to collect and analyze surface samples. As part of the Carnegie Mellon University Ambler Project, researchers are investigating techniques for collecting samples using a robot arm and a range sensor. The aim of this work is to make the sample collection operation fully autonomous. Described here are the components of the experimental system, including a perception module that extracts objects of interest from range images and produces models of their shapes, and a manipulation module that enables the system to pick up the objects identified by the perception module. The system was tested on a small testbed using natural terrain.

Choi, T.↗

A Novel Hybrid Ultramicrotomy/FIB-SEM Technique: Preparation of Serial Electron-Transparent Thin Sections of a Hayabusa Grain

The Japanese space agency's (JAXA) Hayabusa mission returned the first particulate samples (typically <100micron) from the surface of an asteroid (25143 Itokawa). These precious samples provide important insights into early Solar System processes, but their sizes pose tremendous challenges to coordinated analysis using a variety of nano- and micro-beam techniques. The ability to glean maximal information from individual particles has become increasingly important and depends critically on sample preparation. We developed a hybrid technique combining traditional ultramicrotomy with focused ion beam (FIB) techniques, allowing for more thorough in situ investigations of grain surfaces and interiors. Using this method, we increase the number of FIB-prepared sections that can be recovered from a particle with dimensions on the order of tens of microns. These sections can be subsequently analyzed using a variety of analytical techniques. Particle RA-QD02-0211 is a approx. 40×40×20 micron particle from Itokawa containing olivine and Fe sulfides. It was embedded in low viscosity epoxy and partly sectioned to a depth of approx 10 micron; sections are placed on Cu grids with thin amorphous films for transmission electron microscope (TEM) analyses. With the sample surface partly exposed, the epoxy bullet is trimmed to a height of approx. 5mm to accommodate the allowable dimensions for FIB work (FEI Quanta 600 3D dual beam FIB-SEM). Using a diamond trim knife, the epoxy surrounding the grain is removed on 3 sides (to within a few microns of the grain); the depth of material removed extends well below the bottom of the particle. The sample is attached to an SEM pin mount, the epoxy coated with conductive paint, and the entire assembly coated with approx. 40nm of carbon to eliminate sample charging during FIB work. A protective carbon cap is placed according to the plan for the 15 FIB sections. The central 'spine' of the cap runs perpendicular to the front of the sample, and the 'ribs' protruding from either side run parallel. Each rib indicates the location of a planned FIB section, and the spine contains the final two planned sections. We use a cap with a 4 micron-wide spine and 2micron-wide ribs that have ≳3.5 micron of space between them (narrower cuts result in too much re-deposition of material inside the trenches). Using a 30kV, 3nA ion-beam we expose the front surface of the grain and commence milling trenches between sections. Rather than using the typical C-cut to prepare the sample for lift-out, an L-cut is used instead, leaving the sample connected by an interior tab. tab. Sections are lifted out, attached to TEM grids and thinned to electron transparency. TEM analyses show that our hybrid technique preserves both interior and edge features, including surface modifications from exposure to the space environment, such as damaged rims that form in response to solar wind implantation effects and adhering grains. In addition, the FIB sections provide larger areas that are free of fractures and chatter effects in comparison to the microtome thin sections, thus enabling more accurate measurements of solar flare particle track densities that are used to determine the surface exposure age of the particles.

Berger, Eve L.↗

Science Enabling Exploration: Using LRO to Prepare for Future Missions

Discoveries from LRO have transformed our understanding of the Moon, but LRO's instruments were originally designed to collect the measurements required to enable future lunar surface exploration. A high lunar exploration priority is the collection of new samples and their return to Earth for comprehensive analysis. The importance of sample return from South Pole-Aitken is well-established [Jolliff et al., this conference], but there are numerous other locations where sample return will yield important advances in planetary science. Using new LRO data, we have defined an achievability envelope based on the physical characteristics of successful lunar landing sites. Those results were then used to define 1km x 1km regions of interest where sample return could be executed, including: the basalt flows in Oceanus Procellarum (22.1N, 53.9W), the Gruithuisen Domes (36.1N, 39.7W), the Dewar cryptomare (2.2S, 166.8E), the Aristarchus pyroclastic deposit (24.8N, 48.5W), the Sulpicius Gallus formation (19.9N, 10.3E), the Sinus Aestuum pyroclastic deposit (5.2N, 9.2W), the Compton-Belkovich volcanic complex (61.5N, 99.9E), the Ina Irregular Mare Patch (18.7N, 5.3E), and the Marius Hills volcanic complex (13.4N, 55.9W). All of these locations represent safe landing sites where sample returns are needed to advance our understanding of the evolution of the lunar interior and the timescales of lunar volcanism. If LRO is still active when any future mission reaches the surface, LRO's capability to rapidly place surface activities into broader geologic context will provide operational advantages. LRO remains a unique strategic asset that continues to address the needs of future missions.

Lawrence, S. J.↗

Scientific Value of Including an Atmospheric Sample as Part of Mars Sample Return (MSR)

The Perseverance rover is meant to collect samples of the martian surface for eventual return to Earth. The headspace gas present over the solid samples within the sample tubes will be of significant scientific interest for what it reveals about the interactions of the solid samples with the trapped atmosphere and for what it will reveal about the martian atmosphere itself. However, establishing the composition of the martian atmosphere will require other dedicated samples. The headspace gas as the sole atmospheric sample is problematic for many reasons. The quantity of gas present within the sample tube volume is insufficient for many investigations, and there will be exchange between solid samples, headspace gas, and tube walls. Importantly, the sample tube materials and preparation were not designed for optimal Mars atmospheric gas collection and storage as they were not sent to Mars in a degassed evacuated state and have been exposed to both Earth's and Mars' atmospheres. Additionally, there is a risk of unconstrained seal leakage in transit back to Earth, which would allow fractionation of the sample (leak-out) and contamination (leak-in). The science return can be improved significantly (and, in some cases, dramatically) by adding one or more of several strategies listed here in increasing order of effectiveness and difficulty of implementation: (1) Having Perseverance collect a gas sample in an empty sample tube, (2) Collecting gas in a newly-designed, valved, sample-tube-sized vessel that is flown on either the Sample Fetch Rover (SFR) or the Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL), (3) Adding a larger (50-100 cc) dedicated gas sampling volume to the Orbiting Sample container (OS), (4) Adding a larger (50-100 cc) dedicated gas sampling volume to the OS that can be filled with compressed martian atmosphere.

Timothy D. Swindle↗

Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) studies of returned comet nucleus samples

The most important objective of the Comet Nucleus Sample Returm Mission is to return samples which could reflect formation conditions and evolutionary processes in the early solar nebula. It is expected that the returned samples will consist of fine-grained silicate materials mixed with ices composed of simple molecules such as H2O, NH3, CH4 as well as organics and/or more complex compounds. Because of the exposure to ionizing radiation from cosmic-ray, gamma-ray, and solar wind protons at low temperature, free radicals are expected to be formed and trapped in the solid ice matrices. The kind of trapped radical species together with their concentration and thermal stability can be used as a dosimeter as well as a geothermometer to determine thermal and radiation histories as well as outgassing and other possible alternation effects since the nucleus material was formed. Since free radicals that are known to contain unpaired electrons are all paramagnetic in nature, they can be readily detected and characterized in their native form by the Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) method. In fact, ESR has been shown to be a non-destructive, highly sensitive tool for the detection and characterization of paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, and radiation damage centers in terrestrial and extraterrestrial geological samples. The potential use of ESR as an effective method in the study of returned comet nucleus samples, in particular, in the analysis of fine-grained solid state icy samples is discussed.

Tsay, Fun-Dow↗

The Importance of Returned Martian Samples for Constraining Potential Hazards to Future Human Exploraton

Mars has been the target for future human exploration for decades. However, even after the successes of the orbital, lander, and rover missions, there are still an array of unknowns that pose potential physical, chemical, and biological hazards to human health from the martian environment. Mars sample return represents a vital next step in understanding these hazards and mitigating the risks to both the ex-plorers and the inhabitants of Earth.

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