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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A stochastic covariance shrinkage approach to particle rejuvenation in the ensemble transform particle filter

Rejuvenation in particle filters is necessary to prevent the collapse of the weights when the number of particles is insufficient to properly sample the high-probability regions of the state space. Rejuvenation is often implemented in a heuristic manner by the addition of random noise that widens the support of the ensemble. This work aims at improving canonical rejuvenation methodology by the introduction of additional prior information obtained from climatological samples; the dynamical particles used for importance sampling are augmented with samples obtained from stochastic covariance shrinkage. A localized variant of the proposed method is developed. Numerical experiments with the Lorenz '63 model show that modified filters significantly improve the analyses for low dynamical ensemble sizes. Furthermore, localization experiments with the Lorenz '96 model show that the proposed methodology is extendable to larger systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dividing the Concentrator Target From the Genesis Mission

The Genesis spacecraft, launched in 2001, traveled to a Lagrangian point between the Earth and Sun to collect particles from the solar wind and return them to Earth. However, during the return of the spacecraft in 2004, the parachute failed to open during descent, and the Genesis spacecraft crashed into the Utah desert. Many of the solar wind collectors were broken into smaller pieces, and the field team rapidly collected the capsule and collector pieces for later assessment. On each of the next few days, the team discovered that various collectors had survived intact, including three of four concentrator targets. Within a month, the team had imaged more than 10,000 fragments and packed them for transport to the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office within the ARES Directorate at JSC. Currently, the Genesis samples are curated along with the other extraterrestrial sample collections within ARES. Although they were broken and dirty, the Genesis solar wind collectors still offered the science community the opportunity to better understand our Sun and the solar system as a whole. One of the more highly prized concentrator collectors survived the crash almost completely intact. The Genesis Concentrator was designed to concentrate the solar wind by a factor of at least 20 so that solar oxygen and nitrogen isotopes could be measured. One of these materials was the Diamond-on-Silicon (DoS) concentrator target. Unfortunately, the DoS concentrator broke on impact. Nevertheless, the scientific value of the DoS concentrator target was high. The Genesis Allocation Committee received a request for approximately 1 cm(sup 2) of the DoS specimen taken near the focal point of the concentrator for the analysis of solar wind nitrogen isotopes. The largest fragment, Genesis sample 60000, was designated for this allocation and needed to be precisely cut. The requirement was to subdivide the designated sample in a manner that prevented contamination of the sample and minimized the risk of losing or breaking the precious requested sample fragment. The Genesis curator determined that the use of laser scribing techniques to "cut" a precise line and subsequently cleave the sample (in a controlled break of the sample along that line) was the best method for accomplishing the sample subdivision. However, there were risks, including excess heating of the sample, that could cause some of the implanted solar wind to be lost via thermal diffusion. Accidentally breaking the sample during the handling and cleaving process was an additional risk. Early in fiscal year 2013, to address this delicate, complicated task, the ARES Directorate assembled its top scientists to develop a cutting plan that would ensure success when applied to the actual concentrator target wafer; i.e., to produce an approximately 1 cm(sup 2) piece from the requested area of the wafer. The team, subsequently referred to as the JSC Genesis Tiger Team, spent months researching and testing parameters and techniques related to scribing, cleaving, transporting, handling, and holding (i.e., mounting) the specimen. The investigation required considerable "thinking outside the box," and many, many trials using nonflight wafer analogs. After all preliminary testing, the following method was adopted as the final cutting plan. It was used in two final end-to-end practice runs before being used on the actual flight target wafer. The wafer was oriented on the laser cutting stage with the 100 and 010 directions of the wafer parallel to the corresponding X and Y directions of the cutting stage. The laser was programed to scribe 31 lines of the appropriate length along the Y stage direction. The programed scribe lines were separated by 5 micron in the X direction. The laser parameters were set as follows: (1) The laser power was 0.5 watts; (2) each line consisted of 50 passes, with the Z position being advanced 5 micron per pass; and (3) 30 s would elapse before the next line was scribed to allow for wafer cool down from any possible heating via the laser. The ablated material that "stuck" in the "scribe-cut" was removed from the "cut" using an ultrasonic micro-tool. After all the ablated silicon was removed from the wafer, the wafer was repositioned in exactly the same orientation on the laser stage. The laser was focused using the bottom of the wafer channel, and the 31-line scribing pattern described above was reprogrammed using the Z position of the groove bottom as the starting Z value instead of the top wafer surface, which was used previously. Upon completion of the second set of scribes, the ultrasonic micro-tool was again used to clean out the cut. The wafer was remounted on the stage in exactly the same orientation as before. The laser was again focused on the bottom of the groove. This time, however, the laser was.programed to scribe only one line down the exact center of the channel. The final scribe line consisted of 100 passes with a Z advance of 5 micron per pass and with the laser power set at 0.5 watts. As mentioned above, the final cutting plan was practiced in two end-to-end trials using non-flight, triangular-shaped silicon wafers similar in size and orientation to the actual DOS 60000 target sample. The actual scribing of the triangular-shaped wafers required scribing two lines and cleaving (i.e. scribe-cleave, then scribe-cleave) to obtain the piece requested for allocation. Early in December 2012, after many months of experiments and practicing and perfecting the techniques and procedures, the team successfully subdivided the Genesis DoS 60000 target sample, one of the most scientifically important samples from the Genesis mission (figure 2). On December 17, 2012, the allocated piece of concentrator target sample was delivered to the requesting principal investigator.The cutting plan developed for the subdivision of this sample will be used as the model for subdividing future requested Genesis flight wafers (appropriately modified for different wafer types).

Lauer, H. V., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Bayesian inference of transition rates in the hidden Markov model for multi-state system degradation

The more easily available system performance data and advances in data analytics have provided us with opportunities to optimize maintenance programs for engineered systems, for example nuclear power plants. One key task in maintenance optimization is to obtain an accurate model for system degradation. Here, in this research, we propose a Bayesian method to address this problem. Noting that systems usually exhibit multiple states and that the actual state of a system usually is not directly observable, in the method we first model the system degradation process and the observation process based on a hidden Markov model. Then we develop a sequential Bayesian inference algorithm based on importance sampling and the forward algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of the transition rates in the hidden Markov model based on available observations. The proposed Bayesian method allows us to take advantage of evidence from multiple sources, and also allows us to perform Bayesian inference sequentially, without the need to use the entire history of observations every time new observations are collected. We demonstrate the proposed method using both synthetic data for a nuclear power plant feedwater pump and realistic data for a nuclear power plant chemistry analytical device.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Torng, T. Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trepanning Graphite Samples at a Shutdown Magnox Reactor: A US-UK Joint Exercise for Nuclear Verification

In April 2022, a team sponsored by the US DOE Office of Nuclear Verification (ONV) shipped trepanning equipment to the nuclear power station at Trawsfynydd, Wales, UK to collect samples from the graphite moderator of Reactor 1. The sampling campaign to collect 48 graphite samples was completed in five weeks beginning July 11. Half the samples will be analyzed in the US to determine the total energy production of the facility. The other half will be analyzed by Magnox Ltd. to support decisions for options for the ultimate decommissioning path for the facility. This paper provides a description of the equipment and the operations required to trepan, collect, and package the samples while controlling the small amounts of radioactive graphite dust entrained on and within the tool. The most important sample parameter needed is the precise location of the sample, to within ±6 mm in a fuel channel, while the tool is deployed to between 12 and 20 meters below the operations floor; our means of achieving this precision is given.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Athena Mars Rover Science Payload

The Mars Surveyor missions that will be launched in April of 2001 will include a highly capable rover that is a successor to the Mars Pathfinder mission's Sojourner rover. The design goals for this rover are a total traverse distance of at least 10 km and a total lifetime of at least one Earth year. The rover's job will be to explore a site in Mars' ancient terrain, searching for materials likely to preserve a record of ancient martian water, climate, and possibly biology. The rover will collect rock and soil samples, and will store them for return to Earth by a subsequent Mars Surveyor mission in 2005. The Athena Mars rover science payload is the suite of scientific instruments and sample collection tools that will be used to perform this job. The specific science objectives that NASA has identified for the '01 rover payload are to: (1) Provide color stereo imaging of martian surface environments, and remotely-sensed point discrimination of mineralogical composition. (2) Determine the elemental and mineralogical composition of martian surface materials. (3) Determine the fine-scale textural properties of these materials. (4) Collect and store samples. The Athena payload has been designed to meet these objectives. The focus of the design is on field operations: making sure the rover can locate, characterize, and collect scientifically important samples in a dusty, dirty, real-world environment. The topography, morphology, and mineralogy of the scene around the rover will be revealed by Pancam/Mini-TES, an integrated imager and IR spectrometer. Pancam views the surface around the rover in stereo and color. It uses two high-resolution cameras that are identical in most respects to the rover's navigation cameras. The detectors are low-power, low-mass active pixel sensors with on-chip 12-bit analog-to-digital conversion. Filters provide 8-12 color spectral bandpasses over the spectral region from 0.4 to 1.1 micron Narrow-angle optics provide an angular resolution of 0.28 mrad/pixel, nearly a factor of four higher than that of the Mars Pathfinder and Mars Surveyor '98 cameras. Image compression will be performed using a wavelet compression algorithm. The Mini-Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) is a point spectrometer operating in -the thermal IR. It produces high spectral resolution (5 /cm) image cubes with a wavelength range of 5-40 gm, a nominal signal/noise ratio of 500:1, and a maximum angular resolution of 7 mrad (7 cm at a distance of 10 in). The wavelength region over which it operates samples the diagnostic fundamental absorption features of rockforming minerals, and also provides some capability to see through dust coatings that could tend to obscure spectral features. The mineralogical information that Mini-TES provides will be used to select from a distance the rocks and soils that will be investigated in more detail and ultimately sampled. Mini-TES is derived from the MO/MGS TES instrument, but is significantly smaller and simpler. The instrument uses an 8-cm Cassegrain telescope, a Michelson interferometer, and uncooled pyroelectric detectors. Along with its mineralogical capabilities, Mini-TES can provide information on the thermophysical properties of rocks and soils. Viewing upward, it can also provide temperature profiles through the martian atmospheric boundary layer. Elemental and Mineralogical Composition: Once promising samples have been identified from a distance using Pancam/Mini-TES, they will be studied in detail using up to three compositional sensors that can be placed directly against them by an Instrument Arm. The two compositional sensors, presently on the payload are an Alpha-Proton-X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS), and a Mossbauer Spectrometer. The APXS is derived closely from the instrument that flew on Mars Pathfinder. Radioactive alpha sources and three detection modes (alpha, proton, and x-ray) provide elemental abundances of rocks and soils to complement and constrain mineralogical data. The Athena APXS will have a revised mechanical design that will cut down significantly on backscattering of alpha particles from martian atmospheric carbon. It will also include a target of known elemental composition that will be used for calibration purposes. The Athena Mossbauer Spectrometer is a diagnostic instrument for the mineralogy and oxidation state of Fe-bearing phases, which are particularly important on Mars. The instrument measures the resonant absorption of gamma rays produced by a Co-57 source to determine splitting of nuclear energy levels in Fe atoms that is related to the electronic environment surrounding them. It has been under development for space flight for many years at the Technical University of Darmstadt. The Mossbauer Spectrometer (and the other arm instruments) will be able to view a small permanent magnet array that will attract magnetic particles in the martian soil. The payload may also include a Raman Spectrometer. If included, the Raman Spectrometer will provide precise identification of major and minor mineral phases. It requires no sample preparation, and is also sensitive to organics. Fine-Scale Texture: The Instrument Arm a also carries a Microscopic Imager that will obtain high-resolution monochromatic images of the same materials for which compositional data will be obtained. Its spatial resolution is 20 micron/pixel over a 1 cm depth of field, and 40 micron/pixel over a 1-cm depth of field. Like Pancam, it uses the same active pixel sensor detectors and electronics as the rover's navigation cameras. The Instrument Arm is a three degree-of-freedom arm that uses designs and components from the Mars Pathfinder and Mars Surveyor '98 projects. Its primary function is instrument positioning. Along with the instruments noted above, it also carries a brush that can be used to remove dust and other loose coatings from rocks. Sample Collection and Storage: Martian rock and soil samples will be collected using a low-power rotary coring drill called the Mini-Corer. An important characteristic of this device is that it can obtain intact samples of rock from up to 5 cm within strong boulders and bedrock, Nominal core dimensions are 8xl7 mm. The Mini-Corer drills a core to the commanded depth in a rock, shears it off, retains it, and extracts it. It can also acquire samples of loose soil, using soil sample cups that are pressed downward into loose material. The Mini-Corer can drill at angles from vertical to 45' off vertical. It has six interchangeable bits for long life. Mechanical damage to the sample during drilling is minimal, and heating is negligible. After acquisition, the sample may be viewed by the arm instruments, and/or placed in one of 104 compartments in the Sample Container. A subset of the acquired samples may be replaced with other samples obtained later if desired. The Sample Container has no moving parts, and is mounted external to the rover for easy removal by the Mars Surveyor 2005 flight system. Operation of the rover will make extensive use of automated onboard navigation and hazard avoidance capabilities. Otherwise, use of onboard autonomy is minimal. Data downlink capability is about 40 Mbit/sol, and the use of the Mars Surveyor '01 orbiter for data relay imposes a limit of at most two command cycles per sol. Because of the significant amount of time available between command cycles, all payload elements will be operated sequentially, rather than in parallel.; this approach also significantly simplifies operations and minimizes peak power usage. The landing site for the '01 rover has not been selected yet. Site selection will make as full use as possible of Mars Global Surveyor data, and will involve substantial input from the broad Mars science community. Summary: The following table describes the mass, power, providers, and key scientific objectives of all the major elements of the Athena payload. Additional Athena payload information may be found at: http://astrosun.tn.cornell.edu/athena/index.html. Additional information contained in the original.

Squyes, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Next Decade of Mars Exploration

Following a 20-year hiatus in missions to Mars, the planet has again become a focus of planetary research for space-faring nations. NASA and space agencies worldwide are returning to Mars with scientific research and public engagement sharing top priority. Collectively, the work to be performed within a decade will address much of the research associated with planetary evolution, past and present climates, and astrobiology. NASA's science goals are centered on the study of potential habitats - past and present environments that may have been suitable for the origin of life. These goals are approached through in situ measurements and through sample return. CNES has teamed with NASA to return samples, while also extending the research base by adding geophysical measurements via a network of landers. ASI has joined NASA and CNES by providing a drill to access the near sub-surface. ESA will fly an orbiter and, potentially, a lander to Mars with the goal of addressing mineralogy, geochemistry, geology, and biology. ISAS will study the planet's aeronomy using an orbiter. Many other nations are contributors to these programs of exploration. The desire for national participation, presence on the Martian surface and, most importantly, samples to analyze motivate all nations involved. So important is public engagement that NASA and CNES will launch a network of communication satellites to improve public participation and enhance scientific data return. Further, NASA is currently preparing a Mars airplane that will undoubtedly engage the public's imagination. Additional research investigations will be sought; particularly those able to utilize small spacecraft on and above the surface. A recently announced NASA/CNES series of MicroMissions offers a means of pursuing discoveries, scouting potential landing sites for sample return, and further broadening the scope of scientific research. The timing for these opportunities will be presented.

McCleese, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Contaminant Bioaccumulation in Aquatic Biota on and Adjacent to the Oak Ridge Reservation—2020

This report provides information on contaminant concentrations in multiple wildlife prey species inhabiting or associated with water bodies on and downstream from the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), including regional reference sites. This information can be used to understand the nature and extent of contaminant exposure and transfer through the food web and to provide a baseline for evaluating temporal trends in contaminant exposure and accumulation. This information was gathered as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) Five-Year Review (FYR) process, and it also addresses regulator comments on the annual Remediation Effectiveness Report (RER). This report summarizes the results of biological sampling completed in the spring and summer of 2020, prior to the 2021 FYR. Sampled locations included key sites upstream from the point sources of contaminants, along with watershed integration points on and off the ORR. Integration points are spatially the most important sampling sites because they capture biological responses to upstream contaminant inputs from both aqueous and groundwater sources, as well as responses to various remedial actions. These sites are most often located at a watershed administration unit boundary and may have regulatory significance for performance measures. In many cases, there are long-term biological and other monitoring data associated with these sites; these data generally fall within the areas of exposure and effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Precision Oxygen Isotope Measurements of Two C-Rich Hydrated Interplanetary Dust Particles

Introduction: Chondritic-smooth IDPs (Interplanetary Dust Particles) are low porosity objects whose mineralogy is dominated by aqueous alteration products such as Mg-rich phyllosilicates (smectite and serpentine group) and Mg-Fe carbonate minerals. Their hydrated mineralogy combined with low atmospheric entry velocities have been used to infer an origin largely from asteroidal sources. Spectroscopic studies show that the types and abundance of organic matter in CS IDPs is similar to that in CP IDPs. Although CS IDPs show broad similarities to primitive carbonaceous chondrites, only a few particles have been directly linked to specific meteorite groups such as CM and CI chondrites based on the presence of diagnostic minerals. Many CS IDPs however, have carbon contents that greatly exceed that of known meteorite groups suggesting that they either may derive from comets or represent samples of more primitive parent bodies than do meteorites. It is now recognized that many large, dark primitive asteroids in the outer main belt, as well as some trans-Neptunian objects, show spectroscopic evidence for aqueous alteration products on their surfaces. Some CS IDPs exhibit large bulk D enrichments similar to those observed in the cometary CP IDPs. While hydrated minerals in comets have not been unambiguously identified to date, the presence of the smectite group mineral nontronite has been inferred from infrared spectra obtained from the ejecta from comet 9P/Tempel 1 during the Deep Impact mission. Recent observations of low temperature sulfide minerals in Stardust mission samples suggest that limited aqueous activity occurred on comet Wild-2. All of these observations, taken together, suggest that the high-carbon hydrated IDPs are abundant and important samples of primitive solar system objects not represented in meteorite collections. Oxygen isotopic compositions of chondrites reflect mixing between a 16O-rich reservoir and a 17O,18O-rich reservoir produced via mass-independent fractionation. The composition of the 16O-rich reservoir is well constrained but material representing the 17O,18O-rich end-member is rare. Self-shielding models predict that cometary water, presumed to represent this reservoir, should be enriched in 17O and 18O by greater than 200 per mille. The high-carbon hydrated IDPs may be among the best materials available to search for preserved "cometary" H2O signatures. In order to better understand the origin and evolution of these particles, we have obtained 10 hydrated interplanetary dust particles for coordinated mineralogical, isotopic and organic analyses. We have previously reported the results of mineralogical and O isotopic measurements of two hydrated IDPs; here we present results of O isotopic measurements of three additional IDPs. Samples and Methods: Three interplanetary dust particles (L2079C35, L2083D46 and L2083E46) were embedded in S and partially ultramicrotomed into approximately 70 nanometer sections for analysis via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The remainders of the unsliced particles were removed from S and pressed into high purity Au foil that was cleaned with HF acid and annealed at 800 degrees Centigrade. The pressed IDPs were analyzed via electron microprobe analysis (EPMA) for quantitative bulk chemical analysis. After EPMA analysis, the IDPs were subjected to precision O isotope analysis with the UCLA Cameca IMS-1270 ion probe. A 20 kiloelectronvolt, 0.5 nanoangstrom Cs+ primary beam of approximately 15 micrometers diameter was used for each measurement. Small particles of San Carlos olivine and Burma spinel were pressed into the Au foil for use as standards to correct for instrumental mass fractionation. The detection system was configured for multicollection, with 16O measured on a Faraday cup, and 17O and 18O measured on electron multipliers (EMs). Individual analyses consisted of 15 cycles of 10 seconds per cycle. Additionally, two microtome thin sections were measured for H isotopic compositions with the JSC NanoSIMS 50L ion probe. An 8 picoangstrom, 16 kiloelectronvolt Cs plus primary beam was used. Measurements consisted of H, C, 12C, 16O, and 18O collected with EMs in multicollection. Terrestrial biotite and kerogen were used for isotopic standards. A significant challenge in O isotope measurement of hydrated minerals is the interference from 16OH at mass 17O. We ensured that the 17O and 16OH peaks were fully resolved by using a mass resolution of greater than 7000 and by careful analyses of San Carlos olivine, Burma spinel and chlorite hydrated mineral standards. The hydride was further suppressed with a cold finger attached to an LN2 dewar to trap volatiles in the sample chamber. All sputtered ions were counted (i.e. presputtering was not used); after applying background, yield and deadtime corrections, we performed a change-point analysis on our data via R in order to determine when the sample reached sputtering equilibrium; data points collected prior to the change point were excluded. Change-point analysis was also used to determine whether the IDP had completely sputtered. Results: Mineralogy. IDPs C35 and E46 exhibited hydrated mineralogies, Fe-Ni sulfide grains, nanoglobules and occasional enstatite grains distributed throughout a fine-grained Mg-Fe saponite matrix. C35 also contained breunnerite (Mg,Fe)CO3; solar flare tracks were observed in enstatite, indicating minimal atmospheric entry heating. The mineralogy of D46 is dominated by a large FeS grain with a minor component of adhering silicate material. D46 was strongly heated during atmorpheric entry as evidenced by a well-developed magnetite rim. EPMA analyses show that both C35 and E46 have high carbon contents of 20 weight percentage (approximately 6X CI). D46 contains approximately 6 wt.weight percentage C. A significant amount of the carbon is present as carbon nanoglobules. Results: Hydrogen isotopes: Although the bulk delta D values of both sections of L2079C35 were within error of SMOW (minus 33 plus or minus 19 per mille, 1 plus or minus 14 per mille 1 sigma), several delta D-rich hotspots were also identified, reaching 2000 per mille. As shown in Fig. 1, these hotspots are clearly associated with discrete carbonaceous inclusions that are akin to nanoglobules found in many meteorites and other IDPs. Oxygen Isotopes. Results of the oxygen isotope measurements are shown in Figure 1. The oxygen isotope composition for L2079C35 was delta 18O equals plus11.6 plus or minus 1.9per mille, delta 17O equals plus 7.9 plus or minus 1.9per mille (2 standard errors). The oxygen isotope composition for L2083D46 was delta 18O equals minus 8.1 plus or minus 1.9 per mille, delta 17O equals minus 6.4 plus or minus 3.1 per mille (2 standard errors). The oxygen isotope composition for L2083E46 was delta 18O equals plus 12.0 plus or minus 1.9 per mille, delta 17O equals plus 9.2 plus or minus 2.0 per mille (2 standard errors). Discussion: Despite mineralogical similarities to highly aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrites, the hydrated IDPs we analyzed have oxygen isotopic compositions that are distinct from matrix materials in the CI, CM, and CR chondrites. The IDPs plot along the Young-Russell line, with delta 17O values for C35 and E46 suggestive of interaction with a 16O-poor reservoir. However, we have thus far not observed evidence of extreme 16O-poor reservoirs expected from self-shielding models and observed in Acfer 094 simplectite. The high carbon contents of the IDPs also set them apart from known meteoritic samples. The lack of atmospheric entry heating effects are consistent with low encounter velocities and suggest either an asteroidal source, or a low inclination, low eccentricity cometary origin. Conclusions: The unusual oxygen isotopic compositions, high carbon contents, and the abundance of Drich nanoglobules, together, suggest that the high-carbon, hydrated IDPs are derived from a primitive source that is not yet represented in meteorite collections.

Snead, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

An efficient sampling technique for sums of bandpass functions

A well known sampling theorem states that a bandlimited function can be completely determined by its values at a uniformly placed set of points whose density is at least twice the highest frequency component of the function (Nyquist rate). A less familiar but important sampling theorem states that a bandlimited narrowband function can be completely determined by its values at a properly chosen, nonuniformly placed set of points whose density is at least twice the passband width. This allows for efficient digital demodulation of narrowband signals, which are common in sonar, radar and radio interferometry, without the side effect of signal group delay from an analog demodulator. This theorem was extended by developing a technique which allows a finite sum of bandlimited narrowband functions to be determined by its values at a properly chosen, nonuniformly placed set of points whose density can be made arbitrarily close to the sum of the passband widths.

Lawton, W. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the accomplishments of work performed under DOE Office of Science Award DE-SC0022266, which is titled “Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs”. The goal of the project was to extend methods from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) to tackle central computational challenges in model order reduction and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we sought to use importance sampling methods originally developed for RandNLA to develop sample efficient active learning algorithms for approximating high-dimensional scalar functions, e.g. by polynomials, Gaussian process models, and simple neural networks. Such methods can be immediately applied to developing surrogate models or to approximating quantity of interest (QoI) surfaces. In the context of PDEs, each sample used for learning equates to the solution of the differential equation for a particular set of parameters, so sample efficiency translates to improved computational efficiency for a variety of downstream tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Design of Hybrid Improper Ferroelectric Double Perovskite Oxides

The computational design of suitable multiferroic double perovskite oxides requires finding materials that exhibit sizable polarization, magnetization, and coupling between them. Oxides with the chemical formula of AA'BB'O 6 with building blocks of ABO 3 single perovskite oxides in centrosymmetric Pnma symmetry are strong candidates that have been reported to satisfy such criteria. The system lowers to noncentrosymmetric, polar P2 1 symmetry if A/A' layered and B/B' rocksalt cation orderings are imposed. A detailed compositional search over a variety of chemical spaces followed by evaluating their polarization may lead to the identification of more of these compounds with ferroelectric ordering. The standard density functional theory practices to estimate polarization within the Berry phase formalism require the systems to be perfectly insulating. The number of compounds that can be evaluated using this method is therefore limited. In this work, we introduce a predictive learning strategy based on importance sampling to build a series of machine learning models using results from first-principles simulations to predict polarization and the corresponding switching barrier. The geometry-driven features related to charge states and cationic radii play key roles in predicting the switching barrier with complementary contributions from the key structural mode-based order parameters. These modes become important to draw reasonable predictions of polarization components from machine learning models. In conclusion, our predictive models identify candidates with high polarizations and low switching barriers from a pool of double perovskite oxides, suitable for future investigation for their potential applications in spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Lunar Sample Geochronology

One of the legacies of the samples collected by the Apollo and Luna missions is the link forged between radiometric ages of rocks and relative ages according to stratigraphic relationships and impact crater size-frequency distributions. Our current understanding of the history of the inner solar system is based on the relative chronology of individual planets, tied to the absolute geochronology of the Moon via these important samples. Sample ages have enabled us to infer that impact-melt breccias from Apollo 14 and 15 record the formation of the Imbrium Basin, those from the highland massifs at Apollo 17 record the age of Serenitatis, those from the KREEP-poor Apollo 16 site record the age of Nectaris, and materials from Luna 24 record the age of Crisium. Ejecta from smaller and younger craters Copernicus and Tycho were sampled at Apollo 12 and 17, respectively, and local craters such as Cone at Apollo 14, and North Ray and South Ray at Apollo 16 were also sampled and ages determined for those events. Much of what we understand about the lunar impact flux is based on these ages. Samples from these nearside locations reveal a preponderance of impact-disturbed or recrystallized ages between 3.75 and 3.95 billion years. Argon and lead loss (and correlated disturbances in the Rb-Sr system) have been attributed to metamorphism of the lunar crust by an enormous number of impacts in a brief pulse of time, called the Lunar Cataclysm or Late Heavy Bombardment. Subsequent high-precision geochronometric analyses of Apollo samples and lunar highlands meteorites show a wider range of ages, but very few older than 4 Ga. The paucity of ancient impact melt rocks has been interpreted to mean that either that most impact basins formed at this time, or that ejecta from the large, near-side, young basins dominates the Apollo samples.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗