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NASA NTRS2011

Multipoint Observations of Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Energetic Particle Events on Mars and Earth During November 2001

Multipoint spacecraft observations provide unique opportunities to constrain the propagation and evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) throughout the heliosphere. Using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data to study both ICME and solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Mars and OMNI and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56deg solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines separated by only approx.25deg. We model the interplanetary propagation of CME events using the ENLIL version 2.6 3-D MHD code coupled with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge version 1.6 potential source surface model, using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) images to determine CME input parameters. We find that multipoint observations are essential to constrain the simulations of ICME propagation, as two very different ICMEs may look very similar in only one observational location. The direction and width of the CME as parameters essential to a correct estimation of arrival time and amplitude of the ICME signal. We find that these are problematic to extract from the analysis of SOHO/LASCO images commonly used for input to ICME propagation models. We further confirm that MGS magnetometer and electron reflectometer data can be used to study not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data.

Falkenberg, T. V.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Observed at STEREO-A, Mars, Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Saturn,and New Horizons En Route to Pluto: Comparison of Its Forbush Decreases at 1.4, 3.1, and 9.9 AU

We discuss observations of the journey throughout the Solar System of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) that was ejected at the Sun on 14 October 2014. The ICME hit Mars on 17 October, as observed by the Mars Express, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission (MAVEN), Mars Odyssey, and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions, 44 h before the encounter of the planet with the Siding-Spring comet, for which the space weather context is provided. It reached comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, which was perfectly aligned with the Sun and Mars at 3.1 AU, as observed by Rosetta on 22 October. The ICME was also detected by STEREO-A on 16 October at 1 AU, and by Cassini in the solar wind around Saturn on the 12 November at 9.9 AU. Fortuitously, the New Horizons spacecraft was also aligned with the direction of the ICME at 31.6 AU. We investigate whether this ICME has a nonambiguous signature at New Horizons. A potential detection of this ICME by Voyager 2 at 110-111 AU is also discussed. The multispacecraft observations allow the derivation of certain properties of the ICME, such as its large angular extension of at least 116deg, its speed as a function of distance, and its magnetic field structure at four locations from 1 to 10 AU. Observations of the speed data allow two different solar wind propagation models to be validated. Finally, we compare the Forbush decreases (transient decreases followed by gradual recoveries in the galactic cosmic ray intensity) due to the passage of this ICME at Mars, comet 67P, and Saturn.

Witasse, O.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing, Analyzing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Shape Memory Material Data Between Information Management Systems

With an increased demand on reducing the time, cost, and effort to develop new materials, Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) has received widespread attention in various engineering disciplines as a catalyst for significantly reducing experimental testing during the material design process. An ICME approach to design can enable ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials to be realized in engineering applications by incorporating well-understood process-property-performance relationships between the various length and time scales in a material’s structure, enabling material optimization. However, such an approach requires validated multiscale models at the various length scales for a material, which in turn requires a large amount of data, a robust means of storing the data, and the ability to link data to developed material models. The NASA Vision 2040 [1] has identified nine key elements to enabling ICME approaches in system level design, with one being “Data, Information, and Visualization”, thus outlining the importance of a robust information management system for ICME. As the relationship between microstructure, properties, and material performance become better understood and incorporated into multiscale models that can be leveraged in application design, the emergence of new materials with application-driven properties can be realized. One such new material class that has seen growing attention are shape memory materials (SMM), in which a material can transition between a deformed and undeformed state via a reversible phase transformation when subject to a thermal, mechanical, or magnetic load [2]. SMMs have been used widely in aerospace and biomedical industries, including applications such as actuators, low-shock mechanisms, medical staples, braces, and stents [3, 4]. These materials exhibit unique behavior due to their ability to transition between phases, and thus the mechanisms that enable this transition must be captured in a data information management system and incorporated into SMM material models. At NASA Glenn Research Center, the Shape Memory Materials Database (SMMD) Tool has been developed to capture the necessary information that governs SMM material behavior and provide users the ability to select and visualize various SMMs for a specific application [5]. The database contains point-wise data for published SMM materials, along with the pedigree metadata for traceability necessary for a robust information management system. The database is also capable of storing in-house test data performed at NASA GRC by interacting with the developed Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) Analytics tool to extract the necessary point-wise values and populate the database. Although the SMMD Tool offers its users a single, authoritative source for SMM material data that is critical for model development and material design, the full material pedigree of the in-house test data for SMMs is not currently captured and is out of the scope for the SMMD tool. In this work, the schema for capturing SMM test data within the larger NASA GRC ICME Schema [6, 7, 8, 9] will be developed and implemented for thermomechanical tests conducted at NASA GRC. The developed schema will not only store the relevant data needed for the SMMD tool, but also the material pedigree (i.e., production of the bulk material, bulk material analysis, sample cut-out diagrams, sample fabrication procedure, etc.), test pedigree (i.e., test equipment used, measurement systems used, raw test data), and analysis pedigree (i.e., how the data in the SMMD tool is calculated). Furthermore, a Python-based framework will be developed to seamlessly interact between the SMA Analytics and SMMD tools, which will write the full dataset and associated metadata to the GRC Information Management System before passing the required point-wise data to the SMMD tool. Data informatics is a key element of the NASA Vision 2040, which requires not only that data is stored and maintained throughout the material lifecycle, but that the data is also accessible and reusable such that material development efforts can be minimized. Therefore, for an ICME design approach to be realized, a centralized information management system that drives the ICME process must be able to communicate with other databases. The work that will be presented in this presentation will therefore not only demonstrate the ability of NASA GRC’s information management system to capture SMM data, but also its ability to interact with pre-existing tools specialized for such materials.

Data management↗

NASA NTRS2003

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Near-Earth Solar Wind During 1996-2002

We summarize the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996-2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23. In particular, we give a detailed list of such events. This list, based on in-situ observations, is not confined to subsets of ICMEs, such as magnetic clouds or those preceded by halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph, and provides an overview of 214 ICMEs in the near-Earth solar wind during this period. The ICME rate increases by about an order of magnitude from solar minimum to solar maximum (when the rate is approximately 3 ICMEs/solar rotation period). The rate also shows a temporary reduction during 1999, and another brief, deeper reduction in late 2000-early 2001, which only approximately track variations in the solar 10 cm flux. In addition, there are occasional periods of several rotations duration when the ICME rate is enhanced in association with high solar activity levels. We find an indication of a periodic variation in the ICME rate, with a prominent period of approximately 165 days similar to that previously reported in various solar phenomena. It is found that the fraction of ICMEs that are magnetic clouds has a solar cycle variation, the fraction being larger near solar minimum. For the subset of events that we could associate with a CME at the Sun, the transit speeds from the Sun to the Earth were highest after solar maximum.

Cane, H. V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Composition of Coronal Mass Ejections

We analyze the physical origin of plasmas that are ejected from the solar corona. To address this issue, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the elemental composition of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using recently released elemental composition data for Fe, Mg, Si, S, C, N, Ne, and He as compared to O and H. We find that ICMEs exhibit a systematic abundance increase of elements with first ionization potential (FIP) less than 10 electronvolts, as well as a significant increase of Ne as compared to quasi-stationary solar wind. ICME plasmas have a stronger FIP effect than slow wind, which indicates either that an FIP process is active during the ICME ejection or that a different type of solar plasma is injected into ICMEs. The observed FIP fractionation is largest during times when the Fe ionic charge states are elevated above Q (sub Fe) is greater than 12.0. For ICMEs with elevated charge states, the FIP effect is enhanced by 70 percent over that of the slow wind. We argue that the compositionally hot parts of ICMEs are active region loops that do not normally have access to the heliosphere through the processes that give rise to solar wind. We also discuss the implications of this result for solar energetic particles accelerated during solar eruptions and for the origin of the slow wind itself.

Zurbuchen, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Selection Effects in Identifying Magnetic Clouds and the Importance of the Closest Approach Parameter

This study is motivated by the unusually low number of magnetic clouds (MCs) that are strictly identified within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as observed at 1 AU; this is usually estimated to be around 30% or lower. But a looser definition of MCs may significantly increase this percentage. Another motivation is the unexpected shape of the occurrence distribution of the observers' "closest approach distances" (measured from a MC's axis, and called CA) which drops off somewhat rapidly as |CA| (in % of MC radius) approaches 100%, based on earlier studies. We suggest, for various geometrical and physical reasons, that the |CA|-distribution should be somewhere between a uniform one and the one actually observed, and therefore the 30% estimate should be higher. So we ask, When there is a failure to identify a MC within an ICME, is it occasionally due to a large |CA| passage, making MC identification more difficult, i.e., is it due to an event selection effect? In attempting to answer this question we examine WIND data to obtain an accurate distribution of the number of MCs vs. |CA| distance, whether the event is ICME-related or not, where initially a large number of cases (N=98) are considered. This gives a frequence distribution that is far from uniform, confirming earlier studies. This along with the fact that there are many ICME identification-parameters that do not depend on |CA| suggest that, indeed an MC event selection effect may explain at least part of the low ratio of (No. MCs)/(No. ICMEs). We also show that there is an acceptable geometrical and physical consistency in the relationships for both average "normalized" magnetic field intensity change and field direction change vs. |CA| within a MC, suggesting that our estimates of |CA|, B(sub 0) (magnetic field intensity on the axis), and choice of a proper "cloud coordinate" system (all needed in the analysis) are acceptably accurate. Therefore the MC fitting model (Lepping et al., 1990) is adequate, on average, for our analysis. However, this selection effect is not likely to completely answer our original question, on the unexpected ratio of MCs to ICMEs, so we must look for other factors, such as peculiarities of CME birth conditions. As a by-product of this analysis, we determine that the first order structural effects within a MC due to its interaction with the solar wind, plus the MC's usual expansion at 1 AU (i.e., the non-force free components of the MC's field) are, on average, weakly dependent on radial distance from the MC's axis; that is, in the outer reaches of a typical MC the non-force free effects show up, but even there they are rather weak. Finally, we show that it is not likely that a MC's size distribution statistically controls the occurrence distribution of the estimated |CA|s.

Lepping, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-The-Material” and “The-Material” Paradigms

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new material characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. In 2016 NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study (which appeared in 2018) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated (V & V) computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, components, and systems. Consequently, the development of a robust information management system that incorporates (across the full life cycle) both experimental (real data) and virtual data resulting from the application of various simulation tools (at single or multiple length scales), therefore enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing – internal structure – property – performance envelope, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality, and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. This is particularly true when attempting to merge ICME practices with recent additive manufacturing technology which will enable production of the resulting 2040 Vision material and structural designs. At NASA Glenn Research Center we are exploring the future of material science through the use of novel characterization methodologies, high performance computing, and recently an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Herein, recent efforts to incorporate an Application Table within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Granta MI database is presented. The goal is to provide a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked so as to marry the “design the-material” and the “design-with-material” paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures by providing a central location that links material processing at various length scales to the application’s performance requirements. This paper discusses the specifics of this Application Table as well as best practices and key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the 2040 Vision integrated materials and structures ecosystem. Furthermore, it presents the intended role of the Application Table in the future of ICME design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, showing the need for a well-established framework that can successfully bridge the gap between the design “the material” and design “with-the-material” paradigms.

Materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-the-Material” and “the-Material”

Materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Establishing and Maintaining the Digital Thread of Additively Manufactured Materials and Applications

Additive Manufacturing (AM) and Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) are complementary enabling technologies for design and manufacturing of “fit-for-purpose” materials. Both technologies will impact rapid material design, reduction in cost- and time-to-market for new applications, and discovery and implementation of new materials. An ICME approach to design, however, requires experimentally validated material models at multiple length and time scales, an integrated framework that can connect analysis tools with one another to ensure the digital thread of an application is maintained, and the manufacturing (e.g., AM) capability to leverage processing-structure-property-performance (PSPP) relationships to achieve spatially varying material properties where desired. AM enables the implementation of the design of an optimized, spatially varying microstructure through careful selection of the processing parameters used during an additively manufactured build. In order to establish these PSPP relations, a large amount of data is necessary, and that data must be properly captured, analyzed and maintained in an information management system that can establish the required traceability between various aspects of the design process to ensure an application’s digital thread is maintained (from design to end of life). Such an information management system must be able to capture feedstock material pedigree, resulting microstructure from various build parameters, subsequent mechanical properties derived from testing, developed material models, and enable spatial variations in material assignment in an engineering application. Furthermore, the information management system should be easily integrated with traditionally engineered materials in a single, centralized platform to enable an ICME optimization tool to explore both types of manufacturing processes. At NASA GRC, a robust, 21st century materials information management system has been previously developed with a focus towards enabling ICME. In this work, GRC’s ICME schema is extended to accommodate additively manufactured materials, enabling storage of both traditionally and additively manufactured materials in the same construct. The methodology for properly capturing additively manufactured materials across the entire material lifecycle is presented, following the previously established database best practices, as a potential framework for establishing PSPP relationships for additively manufactured materials and applying them to engineering applications.

Data management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Combined Computational, Experimental, and Technology Development Approach to In-Space Laser Manufacturing Maturation at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

In-space manufacturing (ISM) is emerging as a field vital to continued access and capabilities in the space environment. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is advancing the frontier of in-space laser manufacturing (ISLM) techniques through work initially focused on maturing laser beam welding (LBW) and laser forming (LF) for use in space. Such techniques proffer the ability to assemble and join structures in space from sheet metal or other stock – extant satellites, in situ resource utilization of Lunar regolith, etc. – by forming to desired shapes and then joining via in-space welding (ISW). ISLM processes are useful for assembly, joining, modification, and repair of structures in free space and on the Lunar surface such as large observatories, antennas, trusses, blast/thermal/radiation shields, pressure vessels, and more. However, these techniques are not yet qualified & certified (Q&C) for regular application in space. It would be prohibitively expensive, laborious, and time-consuming to perform Q&C via traditional experimental approaches as data collection & experimentation in space is resource-intensive. As such, benchmark experiments and focused, properly instrumented technology demonstration efforts in space can collect sufficient data that – when combined with verified computational models in an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach – can validate ICME tools capable of translating more readily obtained ground data to in-space, in situ, computationally informed Q&C of ISLM techniques. Several ISLM projects at MSFC are obtaining the data required to validate ICME tools through both ground and flight experiments. A parabolic flight experiment of LBW under vacuum is manifested for August 2024, including both microgravity and Lunar gravity profiles. This collaboration with the Ohio State University is investigating common aerospace alloys such as 316L stainless steel, 2219 aluminum alloy, and Ti64 titanium alloy. In situ data collection includes videography, thermography, and reference thermocouples to build a thermal model of the welds. This will elucidate the relevant physics when combined with post-flight microstructural examination and mechanical testing. MSFC is also progressing towards a suborbital flight experiment of LBW under vacuum, which could provide reams of data on ISW during sustained, high-quality reduced gravity. The effect of combined thermal (cryogenic and high-temperature) and vacuum exposure on both LBW (NASA-funded) and LF (DARPA-funded) is being investigated through ground experiments. In addition to the copious data collected during these ground experiments, ruggedization of LBW hardware will also be pursued. The datasets from these experiments will be used to validate computational models which will inform future ISLM efforts in an ICME framework. A variety of techniques across lengths scales, from CALPHAD-driven thermodynamics & kinetics to phase field modeling of solidification to kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of grain evolution at the mesoscale, will be employed to accelerate the infusion and eventual Q&C of LBW and LF for use in space. The development of data-driven surrogate models to bridge ground to flight experiments and thereby reduce the need for resource-intensive experiments in space will also be investigated. These ICME techniques, surrogate models, and datasets from ground testing can also be employed to advance manufacturing in terrestrial environments.

in-space welding↗

NASA NTRS1993

Enrichment and heating of the intracluster medium by ejection from galaxies

Results of N-body + hydrodynamic simulations designed to model the formation and evolution of clusters of galaxies and intracluster gas are presented. Clusters of galaxies are the largest bound, relaxed objects in the universe. They are strong x-ray emitters; this radiation originates through thermal bremsstrahlung from a diffuse plasma filling the space between cluster galaxies, the intracluster medium or ICM. From observations, one can infer that the mass of the ICM is comparable to or greater than the mass of all the galaxies in the cluster, and that the ratio of mass in hot gas to mass in galaxies, M(sub ICM)/M(sub STARS), increases with the richness of the cluster. Spectroscopic studies of cluster x-ray emission show heavy element emission lines. While M(sub ICM)/M(sub STARS) is greater than or equal to 1 implies that most of the ICM is primordial in nature, the discovery of heavy elements indicates that some of the gas must have been processed through galaxies. Galaxy evolution thus directly impacts cluster evolution.

Metzler, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2003

Spatial Relationship of Signatures of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by a number of signatures. In particular, we examine the relationship between Fe charge states and other signatures during ICMEs in solar cycle 23. Though enhanced Fe charge states characterize many ICMEs, average charge states vary from event to event, are more likely to be enhanced in faster or flare-related ICMEs, and do not appear to depend on whether the ICME is a magnetic cloud.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Thermodynamic Structure of Collision-Dominated Expanding Plasma: Heating of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Injections

We investigate the thermodynamic structure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using combined surveys of the ejecta between 0.3 and 20 AU. ICMEs are shown to have a moderate expansion in the solar wind compared with theoretical predictions. The expansion seems to be governed by a polytrope with gamma approx. 1.3 in this distance range. We find that Coulomb collisions are important contributors to the ion-ion equilibration process in the ICME plasma. The alpha-proton differential speed quickly drops to below 10 km/s due to strong Coulomb collisions. However, the two species of particles are far from thermal equilibrium with a temperature ratio T(sub alpha/T(sub p) = 4-6, suggestive of a preferential heating of alpha particles. The plasma heating rate as a function of heliocentric &stance required for the temperature profile is deduced by taking into account the expansion and energy transfer between protons and alphas via Coulomb collisions. The turbulence dissipation rate is also inferred from the inertial range power spectrum of magnetic fluctuations within ICMEs. Comparison of the turbulence dissipation rate with the required heating rate shows that turbulence dissipation seems sufficient to explain the ICME heating. Sources powering the turbulence are also investigated by examining the instabilities induced by temperature anisotropies and energy deposition by pickup ions.

Liu, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1996 - 2007

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME), and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds and other parameters, the fraction of ICMEs that are classic magnetic clouds, and their association with solar energetic particle events, halo CMEs, interplanetary shocks, geomagnetic storms, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Zhang, J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Interplanetary Circumstances of Quasi-Perpendicular Interplanetary Shocks in 1996-2005

The angle (theta(sub Bn)) between the normal to an interplanetary shock front and the upstream magnetic field direction, though often thought of as a property "of the shock," is also determined by the configuration of the magnetic field immediately upstream of the shock. We investigate the interplanetary circumstances of 105 near-Earth quasi-perpendicular shocks during 1996-2005 identified by theta(sub Bn) greater than or equal to 80 degrees and/or by evidence of shock drift particle acceleration. Around 87% of these shocks were driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs); the remainder were probably the forward shocks of corotating interaction regions. For around half of the shocks, the upstream field was approximately perpendicular to the radial direction, either east-west or west-east or highly inclined to the ecliptic. Such field directions will give quasi-perpendicular configurations for radially propagating shocks. Around 30% of the shocks were propagating through, or closely followed, ICMEs at the time of observation. Another quarter were propagating through the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS), and a further quarter occurred in slow solar wind that did not have characteristics of the HPS. Around 11% were observed in high-speed streams, and 7% in the sheaths following other shocks. The fraction of shocks found in high-speed streams is around a third of that expected based on the fraction of the time when such streams were observed at Earth. Quasi-perpendicular shocks are found traveling through ICMEs around 2-3 times more frequently than expected. In addition, shocks propagating through ICMEs are more likely to have larger values of theta(sub Bn) than shocks outside ICMEs.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Response to Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections/Magnetic Clouds in 1995-2009

We summarize the response of the galactic cosmic ray (CGR) intensity to the passage of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks that passed the Earth during 1995-2009, a period that encompasses the whole of Solar Cycle 23. In approx.80% of cases, the GCR intensity decreased during the passage of these structures, i.e., a "Forbush decrease" occurred, while in approx.10% there was no significant change. In the remaining cases, the GCR intensity increased. Where there was an intensity decrease, minimum intensity was observed inside the ICME in approx.90% of these events. The observations confirm the role of both post-shock regions and ICMEs in the generation of these decreases, consistent with many previous studies, but contrary to the conclusion of Reames, Kahler, and Tylka (Astrophys. 1. Lett. 700, L199, 2009) who, from examining a subset of ICMEs with flux-rope-like magnetic fields (magnetic clouds) argued that these are "open structures" that allow free access of particles including GCRs to their interior. In fact, we find that magnetic clouds are more likely to participate in the deepest GCR decreases than ICMEs that are not magnetic clouds.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗