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DOE OSTI2022

Organic matter distribution in the icy environments of Taylor Valley, Antarctica

Glaciers can accumulate and release organic matter affecting the structure and function of associated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Here we analyzed 18 ice cores collected from six locations in Taylor Valley (McMurdo Dry Valleys), Antarctica to determine the spatial abundance and quality of organic matter, and the spatial distribution of bacterial density and community structure from the terminus of the Taylor Glacier to the coast (McMurdo Sound). Our results showed that dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) concentrations in the ice core samples increased from the Taylor Glacier to McMurdo Sound, a pattern also shown by bacterial cell density. Fluorescence Excitation Emission Matrices Spectroscopy (EEMs) and multivariate parallel factor (PARAFAC) modeling identified one humic-like (C1) and one protein-like (C2) component in ice cores whose fluorescent intensities all increased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. The fluorescence index showed that the bioavailability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) also decreased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. Partial least squares path modeling analysis revealed that bacterial abundance was the main positive biotic factor influencing both the quantity and quality of organic matter. Marine aerosol influenced the spatial distribution of DOC more than katabatic winds in the ice cores. Certain bacterial taxa showed significant correlations with DOC and POC concentrations. Collectively, our results show the tight connectivity among organic matter spatial distribution, bacterial abundance and meteorology in the McMurdo Dry Valley ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Solar Forced Dansgaard/Oeschger Events?

Climate records for the last ice age (which ended 11,500 years ago) show enormous climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region - the so-called Dansgaard/Oeschger events. During these events air temperatures in Greenland changed on the order of 10 degrees Celsius within a few decades. These changes were attributed to shifts in ocean circulation which influences the warm water supply from lower latitudes to the North Atlantic region. Interestingly, the rapid warmings tend to recur approximately every 1500 years or multiples thereof. This has led researchers to speculate about an external cause for these changes with the variable Sun being one possible candidate. Support for this hypothesis came from climate reconstructions, which suggested that the Sun influenced the climate in the North Atlantic region on these time scales during the last approximately 12,000 years of relatively stable Holocene climate. However, Be-10 measurements in ice cores do not indicate that the Sun caused or triggered the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Depending on the solar magnetic shielding more or less Be-10 is produced in the Earth's atmosphere. Therefore, 10Be can be used as a proxy for solar activity changes. Since Be-10 can be measured in ice cores, it is possible to compare the variable solar forcing directly with the climate record from the same ice core. This removes any uncertainties in the relative dating, and the solar-climate link can be reliably studied. Notwithstanding that some Dansgaard/Oeschger warmings could be related to increased solar activity, there is no indication that this is the case for all of the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Therefore, during the last ice age the Be-10 and ice core climate data do not indicate a persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate.

Muscheler, R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

Jezek, Kenneth C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability of Black Carbon Deposition to the East Antarctic Plateau, 1800-2000 AD

Refractory black carbon aerosols (rBC) from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion are deposited to the Antarctic ice sheet and preserve a history of emissions and long-range transport from low- and mid-latitudes. Antarctic ice core rBC records may thus provide information with respect to past combustion aerosol emissions and atmospheric circulation. Here, we present six East Antarctic ice core records of rBC concentrations and fluxes covering the last two centuries with approximately annual resolution (cal. yr. 1800 to 2000). The ice cores were drilled in disparate regions of the high East Antarctic ice sheet, at different elevations and net snow accumulation rates. Annual rBC concentrations were log-normally distributed and geometric means of annual concentrations ranged from 0.10 to 0.18 m cro-g/kg. Average rBC fluxes were determined over the time periods 1800 to 2000 and 1963 to 2000 and ranged from 3.4 to 15.5 m /a and 3.6 to 21.8 micro-g/sq m/a, respectively. Geometric mean concentrations spanning 1800 to 2000 increased linearly with elevation at a rate of 0.025 micro-g/kg/500 m. Spectral analysis of the records revealed significant decadal-scale variability, which at several sites was comparable to decadal ENSO variability.

Bisiaux, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Detection and Monitoring of Stratigraphic Markers and Temperature Trends at the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Using Passive-Microwave Remote-Sensing Data

Satellite passive-microwave sensors provide a sensitive means of studying ice-sheet surface processes that assists ice-core interpretation and can extend local observations across regional scales. Analysis of special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature (TB) data supports ice-core research in two specific ways. First, the summer hoar complex layers used to date the Holocene portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core can be defined temporally and spatially by SSM/I 37-GHz vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized B ratio (V/H) trends. Second, comparison of automatic weather station temperatures to SSM/I 37-GHz V TB data shows that they are an effective proxy temperature record in this region. Also, the TB data can be correlated with proxy temperature trends from stable-isotope-ratio (delta O-18 and delta-D) profiles from snow pits and this allows the assignment of dates to specific snow depths.

Shuman, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Black Carbon Deposited in Hariqin Glacier of the Central Tibetan Plateau Record Changes in the Emission from Eurasia

Black carbon (BC), by the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, has profound effects on climate change and glacier retreat in industrial eras. In the present study, we report refractory BC (rBC) in an ice core spanning 1850–2014, retrieved from the Hariqin Glacier of the Tanggula Mountains in the central Tibetan Plateau, measured using a single particle soot photometer (SP2). The rBC concentration shows a three-fold increase since the 1950s. The mean rBC concentration was 0.71±0.52 ng mL-1 during 1850s–1940s and 2.11±1.60 ng mL-1 during 1950s–2010s. The substantial increase in rBC since the 1950s is consistent with rBC ice core records from the Tibetan Plateau and Eastern Europe. According to the predominant atmospheric circulation patterns over the glacier and timing of changes in regional emissions, the post-1950 amplification of rBC concentration in the central Tibetan Plateau most likely reflects increases in emissions in Eastern Europe, former USSR, the Middle East, and South Asia. Despite the low-level background rBC concentrations in the ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau, the present study highlights a remarkable increase in anthropogenic BC emissions in recent decades and the consequent influence on glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau.

Black carbon, Ice core, Tibetan Plateau, Industria↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ocean interactions with the base of Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Using a two-dimensional ocean themohaline circulation model, we varied the cavity shape beneath Amery Ice Shelf in an attempt to reproduce the 150-m-thick marine ice layer observed at the 'G1' ice core site. Most simulations caused melting rates which decrease the ice thickness by as much as 400 m between grounding line and G1, but produce only minor accumulation at the ice core site and closer to the ice front. Changes in the sea floor and ice topographies revealed a high sensitivity of the basal mass balance to water column thickness near the grounding line, to submarine sills, and to discontinuities in ice thickness. Model results showed temperature/salinity gradients similar to observations from beneath other ice shelves where ice is melting into seawater. Modeled outflow characteristics at the ice front are in general agreement with oceanographic data from Prydz Bay. We concur with Morgan's inference that the G1 core may have been taken in a basal crevasse filled with marine ice. This ice is formed from water cooled by ocean/ice shelf interactions along the interior ice shelf base.

Hellmer, Hartmut H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century

Understanding the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is critical for determining its sensitivity to warming and contribution to sea level; however, that history is poorly known before the last interglacial. Most knowledge comes from interpretation of marine sediment, an indirect record of past ice-sheet extent and behavior. Subglacial sediment and rock, retrieved at the base of ice cores, provide terrestrial evidence for GrIS behavior during the Pleistocene. Here, we use multiple methods to determine GrIS history from subglacial sediment at the base of the Camp Century ice core collected in 1966. This material contains a stratigraphic record of glaciation and vegetation in northwestern Greenland spanning the Pleistocene. Enriched stable isotopes of pore-ice suggest precipitation at lower elevations implying ice-sheet absence. Plant macrofossils and biomarkers in the sediment indicate that paleo-ecosystems from previous interglacial periods are preserved beneath the GrIS. Cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be and luminescence data bracket the burial of the lower-most sediment between <3.2 ± 0.4 Ma and >0.7 to 1.4 Ma. In the upper-most sediment, cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be data require exposure within the last 1.0 ± 0.1 My. The unique subglacial sedimentary record from Camp Century documents at least two episodes of ice-free, vegetated conditions, each followed by glaciation. The lower sediment derives from an Early Pleistocene GrIS advance. 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios in the upper-most sediment match those in subglacial bedrock from central Greenland, suggesting similar ice-cover histories across the GrIS. We conclude that the GrIS persisted through much of the Pleistocene but melted and reformed at least once since 1.1 Ma.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multi-model Comparison of the Volcanic Sulfate Deposition from the 1815 Eruption of Mt. Tambora

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyze both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-core derived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Marshall, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS2002

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Jezek, Kenneth C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2007

Exposed Ice in the Northern Mid-Latitudes of Mars

Ice-Rich Layer: Polygonal features with dimensions of approximately 100 meters, bounded by cracks, are commonly observed on the martian northern plains. These features are generally attributed to thermal cracking of ice-rich sediments, in direct analogy to polygons in terrestrial polar regions. We mapped polygons in the northern mid-latitudes (30 to 65 N) using MOC and HiRISE images. Polygons are scattered across the northern plains, with a particular concentration in western Utopia Planitia. This region largely overlaps the Late Amazonian Astapus Colles unit, characterized by polygonal terrain and nested pits consistent with periglacial and thermokarst origins. Bright and Dark Polygonal Cracks: An examination of all MOC images (1997 through 2003) covering the study area demonstrated that, at latitudes of 55 to 65 N, most of the imaged polygons show bright bounding cracks. We interpret these bright cracks as exposed ice. Between 40 and 55 N, most of the imaged polygons show dark bounding cracks. These are interpreted as polygons from which the exposed ice has been removed by sublimation. The long-term stability limit for exposed ice, even in deep cracks, apparently lies near 55 N. Bright and Dark Spots: Many HiRISE and MOC frames showing polygons in the northern plains also show small numbers of bright and dark spots, particularly in western Utopia Planitia. Many of the spots are closely associated with collapse features suggestive of thermokarst. The spots range from tens to approximately 100 meters in diameter. The bright spots are interpreted as exposed ice, due to their prevalence on terrain mapped as ice rich. The dark spots are interpreted as former bright spots, which have darkened as the exposed ice is lost by sublimation. The bright spots may be the martian equivalents of pingos, ice-cored mounds found in periglacial regions on Earth. Terrestrial pingos from which the ice core has melted often collapse to form depressions similar to the martian dark spots. Future Observations: The SHARAD radar should be able to confirm the presence and measure the depth of the interpreted ice-rich layer that forms the Astapus Colles unit. If this layer is confirmed it will strengthen the interpretation of bright polygon cracks and bright spots as exposed ice. HiRISE images of the northern plains are showing unprecedented details of the polygonal cracks. Future HiRISE images that include bright spots, compared to MOC images taken years earlier, will illustrate the temporal stability of the spots. The CRISM spectrometer, with multiple spectral bands and a spatial resolution around 20 meters, should allow mineralogical identification of the material exposed in the polygonal bounding cracks and in the bright spots.

Allen, Carlton C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

To Boldly Go. America's Next Era in Space: New Frontiers in Climate Research

Dr. France Cordova, NASA's Chief Scientist, chaired this, the fourth seminar in the NASA Administrator's Seminar Series. She introduced NASA Administrator, Daniel S. Goldin, who greeted the attendees, and in his opening remarks said that human beings have a need to understand the what and why of the forces of nature and of people, and the stresses on the planet Earth. The first speaker, Dr. Ellen Mosley-Thompson of Ohio State University discussed the many things that scientists have learned from ice cores obtained in Peru and the Antarctic. The next speaker, Dr. Michael McElroy of Harvard University, is active in environmental research. He noted that insurance companies need to know more about the physics and chemistry of weather in order to avoid bankruptcy; that the greenhouse effect, which is good because it reflects heat, is being changed, and we don't know the rules. In the discussion that followed, Goldin asked if the present technology for measuring circulation of air and water and contents of the atmosphere is worth the cost. Drs. McElroy and Mosley-Thompson noted that the historic record in an ice core is endangered by ice melts; that in the last 10 years we've learned that tropics change; that the water vapor in the tropics is critical right now; that clouds absorb short-wave radiation; and that there is a need to improve measurements of atmospheric contents, the development of models, and the understanding of basic physics. We also need to understand parameters for detecting climate change, water, water temperature, and be able to provide fundamental information. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar, Atmospheric, and Volcanic Impacts on 10 Be Depositions in Greenland and Antarctica During the Last 100 Years

Cosmogenic radionuclides (e.g., 10 Be) from ice cores are a powerful tool for solar reconstructions back in time. However, superimposed on the solar signal, other factors like weather/climate and volcanic influences on 10 Be can complicate the interpretation of 10 Be data. A comprehensive study of 10 Be records over the recent period, when atmospheric 10 Be production and meteorological conditions are relatively well-known, can improve our interpretation of 10 Be records. Here we conduct a systematic study of the production and climate/volcanic signals in Antarctica and Greenland 10 Be records, including a new 10 Be record from the East GReenland Ice-core Project site. Greenland and Antarctica records show significant decreasing trends (5%–6.5%/decade) for 1900–1950, which is comparable with the expected production rate inferred from sunspot observations. By comparing 10 Be records with reanalysis data and atmospheric circulation patterns, 10 Be records from Southern/Southeastern Greenland are significantly correlated with the Scandinavia pattern. Stacking 10 Be records from different locations can enhance the production signal. However, this approach is not always straightforward as uncertainties in some records can lead to a weaker solar signal. A strategy can be employed to select records for the bipolar stack by comparing Greenland records with Antarctica records, assuming the shared signal is a production signal. Finally, we observe significant increases (36%–64%) in 10 Be depositions in Greenland related to the Agung eruption. This large increase in Greenland 10 Be records after the Agung eruption, could be partly explained by the enhanced air mass transport from mid-latitudes coinciding with the decreased precipitation en-route.

10Be↗

NASA NTRS2022

Clumped-Isotope Constraint on Upper-Tropospheric Cooling During the Last Glacial Maximum

Ice cores and other paleotemperature proxies, together with general circulation models, have provided information on past surface temperatures and the atmosphere's composition in different climates. Little is known, however, about past temperatures at high altitudes, which play a crucial role in Earth's radiative energy budget. Paleoclimate records at high-altitude sites are sparse, and the few that are available show poor agreement with climate model predictions. These disagreements could be due to insufficient spatial coverage, spatiotemporal biases, or model physics; new records that can mitigate or avoid these uncertainties are needed. Here, we constrain the change in upper-tropospheric temperature at the global scale during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen trapped in polar ice cores. Aided by global three-dimensional chemical transport modeling, we exploit the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of the clumped-isotope composition of atmospheric oxygen to infer that the upper troposphere (effective mean altitude 10–11 km) was 6–9°C cooler during the LGM than during the late preindustrial Holocene. A complementary energy balance approach supports a minor or negligible steepening of atmospheric lapse rates during the LGM, which is consistent with a range of climate model simulations. Proxy-model disagreements with other high-altitude records may stem from inaccuracies in regional hydroclimate simulation, possibly related to land-atmosphere feedbacks.

clumped isotope↗

NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗