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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursory Locking Precedes Slip Events on Laboratory Fault

Earthquakes occur through repeated cycles of locking and slip. What is the relationship between transiently locked patches and the size, location, and timing of the subsequent slip events? Here we use an experimental fault made of transparent rubber to image the slip history of over 18,000 events. The soft elastic system allows for contained ruptures and thus a natural evolution of stress heterogeneity over multiple earthquake cycles. We observe a precursory locking phase preceding slip nucleation for events of all sizes. The integrated locking distance increases linearly with the moment of the eventual event. The most intense (largest slip deficit) locking events are spatially and temporally correlated with the hypocenters of the largest rupture events. These results show that the transient locking is statistically, but not deterministically, predictive of the location, timing, and size of the eventual slip event.

earthquakes↗
DOE OSTI2012

Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4-5 min after an earthquake occurs and thus can aid in effective, accuracy and reliable tsunami early warning for Indonesia region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Tomographic imaging of Central Java, Indonesia: Preliminary result of joint inversion of the MERAMEX and MCGA earthquake data

The realization of local earthquake tomography is usually conducted by removing distant events outside the study region, because these events may increase errors. In this study, tomographic inversion has been conducted using the travel time data of local and regional events in order to improve the structural resolution, especially for deep structures. We used the local MERapi Amphibious EXperiments (MERAMEX) data catalog that consists of 292 events from May to October 2004. The additional new data of regional events in the Java region were taken from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) of Indonesia, which consist of 882 events, having at least 10 recording phases at each seismographic station from April 2009 to February 2011. We have conducted joint inversions of the combined data sets using double-difference tomography to invert for velocity structures and to conduct hypocenter relocation simultaneously. The checkerboard test results of Vp and Vs structures demonstrate a significantly improved spatial resolution from the shallow crust down to a depth of 165 km. Our tomographic inversions reveal a low velocity anomaly beneath the Lawu - Merapi zone, which is consistent with the results from previous studies. A strong velocity anomaly zone with low Vp, low Vs and low Vp/Vs is also identified between Cilacap and Banyumas. We interpret this anomaly as a fluid content material with large aspect ratio or sediment layer. This anomaly zone is in a good agreement with the existence of a large dome containing sediment in this area as proposed by previous geological studies. A low velocity anomaly zone is also detected in Kebumen, where it may be related to the extensional oceanic basin toward the land.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The preliminary results: Internal seismic velocity structure imaging beneath Mount Lokon

Historical records that before the 17{sup th} century, Mount Lokon had been dormant for approximately 400 years. In the years between 1350 and 1400, eruption ever recorded in Empung, came from Mount Lokon’s central crater. Subsequently, in 1750 to 1800, Mount Lokon continued to erupt again and caused soil damage and fall victim. After 1949, Mount Lokon dramatically increased in its frequency: the eruption interval varies between 1 – 5 years, with an average interval of 3 years and a rest interval ranged from 8 – 64 years. Then, on June 26{sup th}, 2011, standby alert set by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation. Peak activity happened on July 4{sup th}, 2011 that Mount Lokon erupted continuously until August 28{sup th}, 2011. In this study, we carefully analyzed micro-earthquakes waveform and determined hypocenter location of those events. We then conducted travel time seismic tomographic inversion using SIMULPS12 method to detemine Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs ratio structures beneath Lokon volcano in order to enhance our subsurface geological structure. During the tomographic inversion, we started from 1-D seismic velocities model obtained from VELEST33 method. Our preliminary results show low Vp, low Vs, and high Vp/Vs are observed beneath Mount Lokon-Empung which are may be associated with weak zone or hot material zones. However, in this study we used few station for recording of micro-earthquake events. So, we suggest in the future tomography study, the adding of some seismometers in order to improve ray coverage in the region is profoundly justified.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling earthquake effects on groundwater levels: evidences from the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

Changes in water level are commonly reported in regions struck by a seismic event. The sign and amplitude of such changes depend on the relative position of measuring points with respect to the hypocenter, and on the poroelastic properties of the rock. We apply a porous media flow model (TOUGH2) to describe groundwater flow and water-level changes associated with the first M L 5.9 mainshock of the 2012 seismic sequence in Emilia (Italy). We represent the earthquake as an instantaneous pressure step, whose amplitude was inferred from the properties of the seismic source inverted from geodetic data. The results are consistent with the evolution recorded in both deep and shallow water wells in the area and suggest that our description of the seismic event is suitable to capture both timing and magnitude of water-level changes. Finally, we draw some conclusions about the influence of material heterogeneity on the pore pressure evolution, and we show that to reproduce the observed maximum amplitude it is necessary to take into account compaction in the shallow layer.

2012 Emilia earthquake↗
DOE OSTI2016

Walker Ranch 3D seismic images

Amplitude images (both vertical and depth slices) extracted from 3D seismic reflection survey over area of Walker Ranch area (adjacent to Raft River). Crossline spacing of 660 feet and inline of 165 feet using a Vibroseis source. Processing included depth migration. Micro-earthquake hypocenters on images. Stratigraphic information and nearby well tracks added to images. Images are embedded in a Microsoft Word document with additional information. Exact location and depth restricted for proprietary reasons. Data collection and processing funded by Agua Caliente. Original data remains property of Agua Caliente.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microseismic at HFTS2: A Story of Three Stimulated Wells

A microseismic data set was acquired at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS2) in the Delaware Basin (Texas, USA) by the HFTS2 consortium as a part of data-collection program designed to help maximize the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing, understand the impacts of nearby depleted zones, and increase the production of hydrocarbons. Advanced methods of microseismic monitoring applied at HFTS2 include 1) native synchronization of five monitor arrays, 2) real-time location of microseismic events, 3) joint event hypocenter/ velocity-model inversion that locates microseismic events simultaneously with constructing azimuthally anisotropic velocity models, 4) high-resolution reservoir imaging, utilizing microseismic events as downhole sources. HFTS2 microseismic data set illustrated the influence of geologic complexity, variations in treatment designs, and the presence of parent wells on the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing. Three Wolfcamp wells, Boxwood 1H, 2H, and 4H, were stimulated sequentially, exhibiting very different patterns of microseismicity. When the Boxwood 1H well is stimulated, its toe stages quickly reacted to the presence of depleted Bitterroot section to the east of the Boxwood pad, extending microseismic events over 3,000 ft to the east. This behavior changes dramatically after the treatment passes the Bitterroot section at the toe, and the heel stages in 1H showed tight microseismic grouping around the stimulated well, indicative of treatment of virgin reservoir rock. The Boxwood 2H demonstrates this same pattern of behavior between the toe and heel stages of the well, suggesting that the depleted Bitterroot section remains easier to refracture than adjacent non-depleted rock. Microseismic activity associated with Boxwood 4H treatment is distinctly different from those in Boxwood wells 1H and 2H. The events generated during stimulation of 4H are hardly influenced by the depleted Bitterroot section and fill the space between the previously stimulated 1H and 2H wells. Altogether, microseismic patterns suggest that treatment fluids tend to find the weakest passages through geologic formations, and the relative well positions and treatment sequence have a significant impact on fracture geometry, as indicated by microseismic event locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dose Coefficient Calculation for Use in Dosimetry Assessment of a Fission-Based Weapon

In the event of a fission-based weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation, dose coefficients can be harnessed to provide dose assessments for defense, emergency preparedness, and consequence management, as well as to prospectively inform the assessment of radiation biomarkers and development of medical prophylaxis countermeasures for defense and homeland security stakeholders and decision-makers. Although dose coefficients have previously been calculated for this group, they would apply specifically to the studied population, the 1945 Japanese cohort, after which their anthropomorphic computational phantoms were modeled. For this reason, applications to other populations may be limited, and instead, an assessment of a more standardized population is desired. We employed a series of computational human phantoms representing international reference individuals: UF/NCI voxel phantom series containing newborn, 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 35-year-old males and females. Irradiation of the phantoms was simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code to determine organ dose coefficients under four idealized irradiation geometries at three distances from the detonation hypocenter at Hiroshima and Nagasaki using DS02 free-in-air prompt neutron and photon fluence spectra. Through these simulations, age-specific dose coefficients were determined for individual organs. Various articulated PIMAL stylized phantoms were simulated as well to estimate the effect of body posture on dose coefficients and determine the effect of posture on dosimetric estimation and reconstruction. Results additionally demonstrate that 137 Cs and the Watt fission spectra are not ideal general surrogate sources for fission weapons, which may be considered for experimental testing of medical countermeasures. Supplementary data provided tabulates the compilation of organ dose-rate coefficients in this study.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2016

Kinematic Ground-Motion Simulations on Rough Faults Including Effects of 3D Stochastic Velocity Perturbations

Here, we describe a methodology for generating kinematic earthquake ruptures for use in 3D ground–motion simulations over the 0–5 Hz frequency band. Our approach begins by specifying a spatially random slip distribution that has a roughly wavenumber–squared fall–off. Given a hypocenter, the rupture speed is specified to average about 75%–80% of the local shear wavespeed and the prescribed slip–rate function has a Kostrov–like shape with a fault–averaged rise time that scales self–similarly with the seismic moment. Both the rupture time and rise time include significant local perturbations across the fault surface specified by spatially random fields that are partially correlated with the underlying slip distribution. We represent velocity–strengthening fault zones in the shallow (<5 km) and deep (>15 km) crust by decreasing rupture speed and increasing rise time in these regions. Additional refinements to this approach include the incorporation of geometric perturbations to the fault surface, 3D stochastic correlated perturbations to the P– and S–wave velocity structure, and a damage zone surrounding the shallow fault surface characterized by a 30% reduction in seismic velocity. We demonstrate the approach using a suite of simulations for a hypothetical Mw 6.45 strike–slip earthquake embedded in a generalized hard–rock velocity structure. The simulation results are compared with the median predictions from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation–West2 Project ground–motion prediction equations and show very good agreement over the frequency band 0.1–5 Hz for distances out to 25 km from the fault. Additionally, the newly added features act to reduce the coherency of the radiated higher frequency (f>1 Hz) ground motions, and homogenize radiation–pattern effects in this same bandwidth, which move the simulations closer to the statistical characteristics of observed motions as illustrated by comparison with recordings from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stress-Drop and Source Scaling of the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop, while difficult to measure reliably and at scale, is a key source parameter for understanding the earthquake rupture process and its relationship to strong ground motion. Here, we use a P-wave spectral decomposition approach, designed for large and densely sampled datasets, to measure earthquake stress drop in the region surrounding the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence. With more than 11,000 measurements of earthquake stress drop in the 20-yr time period from 2000 through 2019, this dataset provides an opportunity to understand how coseismic stress changes and how other geophysical factors relate to the distribution of stress drop and its evolution in space and time. We observe a mild but persistent deviation from self-similar scaling, with larger events having systematically higher stress drops, though this trend depends on the assumption of an omega-square source spectral model. Earthquake stress drop increases with hypocentral depth in this study region, and the Ridgecrest aftershocks tend to have higher stress drops than the pre-event seismicity. This is in part due to their deeper hypocenters. Coherent spatial patterns of stress drop in the aftershock sequence correlate with the slip distribution of the M 7.1 mainshock, whose northwest rupture tip terminated in a long-lived zone of enervated stress drop. Although physical interpretation of these results is complicated by the trade-offs between the timing, depth, and location of these earthquakes, the observations provide new insight into the physics of the earthquake source in an area of renewed seismic activity in southern California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Refinements to the Graves–Pitarka Kinematic Rupture Generator, Including a Dynamically Consistent Slip-Rate Function, Applied to the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake

The main objective of this study is to develop physics–based constraints on the spatiotemporal variation of the slip–rate function using a simplified dynamic rupture model. First, we performed dynamic rupture modeling of the 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake, to analyze the effects of depth–dependent stress and material friction on slip rate. Then, we used our modeling results to guide refinements to the slip–rate function that were implemented in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generation technique. The dynamic ruptures were computed on a surface–rupturing, planar strike–slip fault that includes a weak (negative to low–stress–drop) zone in the upper 4 km of the crust. Below the weak zone, we placed high–stress–drop patches designed to mirror the large–slip areas seen in various rupture model inversions of the event. The locations of the high–stress–drop patches and the hypocenter were varied in multiple realizations to investigate how changing the dynamic conditions affected the resulting rupture kinematics, in particular, the slip rate. From these simulations, we observed a systematic change in the shape of the slip–rate function from Kostrov type below the weak zone to a predominantly symmetric shape within the weak zone, along with a depth–dependent reduction of peak slip rate. We generalized these shallow rupture features into a depth–dependent parametric variation of the slip–rate function and implemented it in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model generator. The performance of the updated kinematic approach was then verified in 0–4 Hz simulations of the M w 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, which showed that incorporating the depth–dependent variation in the shape of the slip–rate function improves the fit to the observed near–fault ground motions in the 0.5–3 s period range.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part II: Application to the Pahala, Hawaii, Earthquake Sequence

In the companion “Theory” article, we presented a new framing of the seismic location problem in terms of differential geometry (Harris et al., 2025). From that viewpoint, we developed a “project and correct” approach for estimating the relative locations of earthquakes. Here, in this study, we use project and correct to estimate high-precision relative locations of events from an earthquake sequence beneath the town of Pahala, Hawaii, using high-precision correlation-derived picks. The sequence was active from 2020 through 2022 and produced many highly correlated signals at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) stations on the island of Hawaii. The data we inverted consisted of 2882 events with observations at 5 HVO stations. For comparison with the travel-time image, we also produced conventional hypocenter solutions using both the Bayesloc program (Myers et al., 2007, 2009) and a purpose-built double-difference code. There were obvious structural elements in the resulting image, the resolution of which we used to test the performance of the project and the correct algorithm. For the projection step, we first produced a 3D local basis using an singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 2882 groups of times. Projection of the travel-time vectors into this basis resulted in an image with structures similar to those produced by our conventional locators, but with distortion as predicted by theory. Removing the distortion requires an inverse operator generated from the metric tensor at the geometric centroid of the events. We compared two approaches to obtaining such an inverse operator. The first uses an estimate of the geographic centroid of the event cloud from the centroid of the travel-time data. The second approach uses the centroid of the conventionally produced locations. The first approach produces a corrected image very similar to the conventional results, but with a rotation. The corrected image produced using the conventionally derived centroid is a near-exact match to the conventional locations.

Dodge, Douglas A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Monitoring near Ithaca, New York, Reveals Nonuniform Distribution of Microseismicity in an Intraplate Region

Abstract Cornell University intends to use a deep direct-use geothermal system to heat its Ithaca, New York, campus. In preparation for this project, the Cornell Seismic Network has been monitoring the background seismicity in this intraplate region since 2019. From January 2020 to June 2023, 95 events were detected within 20 km of the proposed geothermal well site, with local magnitudes ranging from −1.02 to 0.56. None of these events appear in regional or national catalogs. Events locate in a narrow geographic band, with one-fourth exhibiting multimodal hypocentral probability peaks both near the surface and at 1–4 km depth. We relocate events with a joint hypocenter and 1D velocity model inversion, in addition to a fully nonlinear method, and then compare observations with synthetic waveforms. Together, these approaches provide strong evidence for >95% of events locating at the surface or within the 3-km-thick sedimentary sequence. We explore how anthropogenic activity and regional topographic stress may contribute to frequent surficial events. This information is critical for characterizing the background microseismicity for comparison during future geothermal operations. Ithaca’s geology of Paleozoic sediments overlying Precambrian crystalline basement is typical of many continental interiors, so these results also provide insight into intraplate microseismicity patterns.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constructing a High‐Resolution Aftershock Catalog for the 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec Earthquake Sequence Using a Machine Learning–Based Workflow

The 8 September 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake was the largest instrumentally recorded normal‐faulting earthquake in Mexico. The mainshock occurred offshore within the Tehuantepec seismic gap, generating >30,000 aftershocks in the following year. We applied an open‐source, machine learning (ML)–assisted workflow to construct a high‐resolution aftershock catalog using data from temporary and permanent seismic networks in southern Mexico. The workflow integrates PhaseNet for phase detection; GaMMA for phase association; and VELEST, HypoInverse, and HypoDD for velocity modeling and relocation. We processed seven months of continuous waveform data from 29 broadband stations, including a temporary rapid‐response deployment that improved station coverage of the offshore rupture zone. To evaluate performance, we compared our results against analyst‐reviewed picks and event locations from the Servicio Sismológico Nacional catalog. The resulting catalog contains 11,374 relocated earthquakes and represents the most comprehensive published dataset for this sequence, incorporating the first full use of the temporary network. Relocated hypocenters show improved depth control and align well with the Slab2.0 subduction geometry, revealing clearer separation between offshore slab events and onshore crustal seismicity. This study demonstrates that combining ML‐based detection with established methods provides a scalable and reproducible approach for constructing high‐quality earthquake catalogs in tectonically complex environments and offers practical guidance for adapting similar workflows to other earthquake sequences.

Garcia, Marc [The University of Texas at El Paso, ↗
DOE OSTI2012

Locating Microearthquakes In The Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We report the results of a 6-month microearthquake study of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California. This active geothermal field is also seismically active due to the flow of fluids through pre-existing fractures of rocks in the subsurface which can cause faults to slip. Locating these seismic events within the geothermal field enables researchers to determine whether the earthquakes are anthropogenic or tectonic from the nearby Brawley Seismic Zone. We analyzed November 2009 to April 2010 seismic waveform data retrieved from a network of continuously recording seismometers covering an area of 10 km 2 . 2,271 microearthquake hypocenters were processed out of 2,609 total recorded events and their locations suggest the majority could be at approximately the same depth as the fluid injection wells.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Use Case Realization Report: UCR-02.08 System Refines Event Location

This architecturally significant use case describes how the System refines event hypothesis location solutions. The System locates events by finding the event location minimizing the difference between signal detection feature measurements and signal detection feature predictions (see 'System Measures Signal Features' UC). The System references both empirical knowledge from past events and geophysical models to form the signal detection feature predictions. The System also computes an uncertainty bound for each event hypothesis location solution describing a region bounding the event hypothesis' hypocenter and origin time at a particular confidence level. The System creates a variety of location solutions for each event hypothesis. These location solutions vary from one another in either the input parameters the System uses or in the location solution components the System restrains to fixed values (e.g. depth) during event location calculations. The System computes location solutions using input parameters configured by the System Maintainer (see ‘Configures Processing Components’ UC). The Analyst has the option to override input parameters originally configured by the System Maintainer (see 'Refines Event Location' UC). This use case is architecturally significant due to the processing and memory resource consumption of 3D earth model calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗