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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational epidemiological tools for pandemic analysis, understanding, and response

This suite of software tools is being developed to enhance and analyze computational epidemiological models that incorporate realistic disease dynamics and human behavior, with the goal of supporting epidemic and pandemic response. Specifically, the tools enable data analysis, feature extraction, data synthesis, machine learning model development, and prediction of key public health outcomes, such as cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and behavioral responses, for airborne infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza.

Butts, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sex- and age-specific aspects of human peripheral T-cell dynamics

Background: The diversity of the antigenic T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire clonally expressed on T lymphocytes is a key element of the adaptive immune system protective functions. A decline in diversity in the older adults is associated with health deterioration. This diversity is generated by the rearrangement of TRB genes coding for TCR chains during lymphocyte differentiation in the thymus, but is essentially maintained by peripheral T lymphocytes proliferation for most of life. Deep sequencing of rearranged TRB genes from blood cells allows the monitoring of peripheral T cell repertoire dynamics. We analysed two aspects of rearranged TRB diversity, related to T lymphocyte proliferation and to the distribution of the T cell clone size, in a collection of repertoires obtained from 1 to 74 years-old donors. Results: Our results show that peripheral T lymphocytes expansion differs according to the recombination status of their TRB loci. Their proliferation rate changes with age, with different patterns in men and women. T cell clone size becomes more heterogeneous with time, and, in adults, is always more even in women. Importantly, a longitudinal analysis of TRB repertoires obtained at ten years intervals from individual men and women confirms the findings of this cross-sectional study. Conclusions: Peripheral T lymphocyte proliferation partially depends on their thymic developmental history. The rate of proliferation of T cells differing in their TRB rearrangement status is different in men and women before the age of 18 years old, but similar thereafter.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Activation dynamics of a water-soluble human mu-opioid receptor

The mu-opioid receptor (MOR), a class A G protein-coupled receptor mediates opioid analgesia and remains a central target for pain therapeutics. While crystal structures of MOR exist, they provide limited insight into the receptor’s dynamic conformational landscape underlying function. Here, we engineered a thermostable water-soluble MOR variant (wsMOR) that retains native-like ligand-binding and activation dynamics. This variant enables high-yield production and detailed solution-phase structural studies that are challenging with membrane-embedded MOR, providing a valuable tool for studying receptor activation and aqueous-phase drug screening. Using a combined computational and experimental approach, we performed long-timescale all-atom molecular dynamics simulations together with neutron scattering and single-molecule FRET, revealing a structurally stable receptor with a diverse ensemble of conformations at different temporal resolutions. In the ligand-free state, wsMOR displayed high conformational flexibility, which decreased upon agonist binding, particularly in transmembrane helix 6, a hallmark of G protein-coupled receptor activation. Positive allosteric modulation and G protein binding further stabilized active-like states. These findings highlight wsMOR’s conformational plasticity across picosecond to millisecond timescales and provide a foundation for structure-guided development of next-generation opioid ligands with improved efficacy and safety.

E, Agyemang [University of Tennessee Knoxville]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structural and dynamic effects of paraoxon binding to human acetylcholinesterase by X-ray crystallography and inelastic neutron scattering

Organophosphorus (OP) compounds, including nerve agents and some pesticides, covalently bind to the catalytic serine of human acetylcholinesterase (hAChE), thereby inhibiting acetylcholine hydrolysis necessary for efficient neurotransmission. Oxime antidotes can reactivate the OP-conjugated hAChE, but reactivation efficiency can be low for pesticides, such as paraoxon (POX). Understanding structural and dynamic determinants of OP inhibition and reactivation can provide insights to design improved reactivators. Here, in this study, X-ray structures of hAChE with unaged POX, with POX and oximes MMB4 and RS170B, and with MMB4 are reported. A significant conformational distortion of the acyl loop was observed upon POX binding, being partially restored to the native conformation by oximes. Neutron vibrational spectroscopy combined with molecular dynamics simulations showed that picosecond vibrational dynamics of the acyl loop soften in the ~20–50 cm –1 frequency range. The acyl loop structural perturbations may be correlated with its picosecond vibrational dynamics to yield more comprehensive template for structure-based reactivator design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A device for volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis from skin using heated dynamic headspace sampling

Abstract Human skin is an important source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) offering noninvasive methods to gain clinical metabolite information. This work was focused on the development of a skin sampling device based on a dynamic headspace sampling method with the addition of temperature to increase VOC metabolite recovery. The device preconcentrates skin VOC emissions onto a sorbent substrate, which can either be preserved for offline analysis or attached to a real time sensor downstream. In this work, skin VOC samples were analyzed offline using thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. A list of 10 common skin VOCs was pre-selected to optimize parameters of sampling time, sampling temperature, and sorbent selection. Overall, this study highlights an effective skin VOC sampling technology with a heating dimension (40 °C, rather than 30 °C or no heating) with a sampling time of 15 min (rather than 5 or 30 mins) and onto Tenax TA sorbent (rather than PDMS), which collectively increases the recovery of compounds with lower vapor pressure and decreases the observed variability in skin VOC measurements. Finally, a list of 79 skin VOC compounds were detected and identified within a cohort of 20 young, healthy volunteers.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

HumoNet: A Framework for Realistic Modeling and Simulation of Human Mobility Network

Understanding, analyzing, and predicting human mobility and dynamics are valuable to solving pressing problems, developing effective plans, and prescribing timely remedies. As a computational approach, realistic human mobility simulations allow us to understand, analyze, and predict complex systems, including human societies. Accurate simulations rely on (1) the model that captures interactions and behaviors of myriad entities in our society and (2) the mapping of model instances to real-world entities. Taking this into account, this paper introduces the Human Mobility Network simulation framework (HumoNet), an integrated patterns of life (POL) simulation framework that leverages real-world data layers including transportation networks, points of interest, populations, popularity, and human trajectories. HumoNet is a data informed model in which agents are equipped with activities, locomotion, and planning capabilities. To simulate realistic kinematic maneuvers of individuals in transportation networks, HumoNet harnesses a microscopic traffic simulator that provides interaction among vehicles and traffic objects. In this paper, we describe the framework, outline our methodologies, and discuss the data processing and challenges of each data layer. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our simulations capture key features of human mobility by comparing them to the literature and real data using standard measures of human mobility (i.e., the radius of gyration, number of locations visited, level of exploration) and metrics scoring (i.e., Jensen-Shannon divergence). We envision that the synthetic data produced by HumoNet will serve as a benchmark for analyzing epidemics, deploying EV charging networks, and validating AI/ML tasks such as location prediction.

Kim, Joon-Seok↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Recovery human action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part in human reliability analysis (HRA). However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. Representatively, the existing recovery analysis does not specifically consider recovery actions as they have occurred in actual nuclear power plants (NPPs). To handle the challenges in the existing recovery analyses, this study suggests a way to analyze recovery actions under a dynamic HRA method, the Procedure-based Risk Investigation MEthod-Human Reliability Analysis (PRIME-HRA) method. The PRIME-HRA method suggests a way on how to develop dynamic simulation models using dynamic risk assessment tools such as the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) [1] and the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) [2]. EMRALD and HUNTER are the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and HRA tools developed at Idaho National Laboratory. In this paper, differences on analyzing recovery actions in the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT) and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA) and challenges of these approaches are introduced. How we have developed the PRIME-HRA is also introduced in this paper. Then, the proposed approach to analyzing recovery human actions in dynamic context is partially discussed with an example.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bacterial community dynamics as a result of growth-yield trade-off and multispecies metabolic interactions toward understanding the gut biofilm niche

Abstract Bacterial communities are ubiquitous, found in natural ecosystems, such as soil, and within living organisms, like the human microbiome. The dynamics of these communities in diverse environments depend on factors such as spatial features of the microbial niche, biochemical kinetics, and interactions among bacteria. Moreover, in many systems, bacterial communities are influenced by multiple physical mechanisms, such as mass transport and detachment forces. One example is gut mucosal communities, where dense, closely packed communities develop under the concurrent influence of nutrient transport from the lumen and fluid-mediated detachment of bacteria. In this study, we model a mucosal niche through a coupled agent-based and finite-volume modeling approach. This methodology enables us to model bacterial interactions affected by nutrient release from various sources while adjusting individual bacterial kinetics. We explored how the dispersion and abundance of bacteria are influenced by biochemical kinetics in different types of metabolic interactions, with a particular focus on the trade-off between growth rate and yield. Our findings demonstrate that in competitive scenarios, higher growth rates result in a larger share of the niche space. In contrast, growth yield plays a critical role in neutralism, commensalism, and mutualism interactions. When bacteria are introduced sequentially, they cause distinct spatiotemporal effects, such as deeper niche colonization in commensalism and mutualism scenarios driven by species intermixing effects, which are enhanced by high growth yields. Moreover, sub-ecosystem interactions dictate the dynamics of three-species communities, sometimes yielding unexpected outcomes. Competitive, fast-growing bacteria demonstrate robust colonization abilities, yet they face challenges in displacing established mutualistic systems. Bacteria that develop a cooperative relationship with existing species typically obtain niche residence, regardless of their growth rates, although higher growth yields significantly enhance their abundance. Our results underscore the importance of bacterial niche dynamics in shaping community properties and succession, highlighting a new approach to manipulating microbial systems.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prevalence and scalable control of localized networks

The ability to control network dynamics is essential for ensuring desirable functionality of many technological, biological, and social systems. Such systems often consist of a large number of network elements, and controlling large-scale networks remains challenging because the computation and communication requirements increase prohibitively fast with network size. Here, we introduce a notion of network locality that can be exploited to make the control of networks scalable, even when the dynamics are nonlinear. We show that network locality is captured by an information metric and is almost universally observed across real and model networks. In localized networks, the optimal control actions and system responses are both shown to be necessarily concentrated in small neighborhoods induced by the information metric. This allows us to develop localized algorithms for determining network controllability and optimizing the placement of driver nodes. This also allows us to develop a localized algorithm for designing local feedback controllers that approach the performance of the corresponding best global controllers, while incurring a computational cost orders-of-magnitude lower. Here, we validate the locality, performance, and efficiency of the algorithms in Kuramoto oscillator networks, as well as three large empirical networks: synchronization dynamics in the Eastern US power grid, epidemic spreading mediated by the global air-transportation network, and Alzheimer’s disease dynamics in a human brain network. Taken together, our results establish that large networks can be controlled with computation and communication costs comparable to those for small networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systematic mapping of the conformational landscape and dynamism of soluble fibrinogen

Background: Fibrinogen is a soluble, multisubunit, and multidomain dimeric protein, which, upon its proteolytic cleavage by thrombin, is converted to insoluble fibrin, initiating polymerization that substantially contributes to clot growth. Fibrinogen contains numerous, transiently accessible “cryptic” epitopes for hemostatic and immunologic proteins, suggesting that fibrinogen exhibits conformational flexibility, which may play functional roles in its temporal and spatial interactions. Hitherto, there have been limited integrative approaches characterizing the solution structure and internal flexibility of fibrinogen. Methods: Here, utilizing a multipronged, biophysical approach involving 2 solution-based techniques, temperature-dependent hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry and small angle X-ray scattering, corroborated by negative stain electron microscopy, we present a holistic, conformationally dynamic model of human fibrinogen in solution. Results: Our data reveal 4 major and distinct conformations of fibrinogen accommodated by a high degree of internal protein flexibility along its central scaffold. We propose that the fibrinogen structure in the solution consists of a complex, conformational landscape with multiple local minima. This is further supported by the location of numerous point mutations that are linked to dysfibrinogenemia and posttranslational modifications, residing near the identified fibrinogen flexions. Conclusion: Further, this work provides a molecular basis for the structural “dynamism” of fibrinogen that is expected to influence the broad swath of its functionally diverse macromolecular interactions and fine-tune the structural and mechanical properties of blood clots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗