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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Phenomena in Multicomponent Liquids: Simulation Methods, Analysis, Chemistry

Complex, multicomponent, solutions have often been studied solely through the lens of specific applications of interest. Yet advances to both simulation methodologies (enhanced sampling, etc.) and analysis techniques (network analysis algorithms and others), are creating a trove of data that reveal transcending characteristics across vast compositional phase space. This perspective discusses technical considerations of the reliable and accurate simulations of complex solutions, followed by the advances to analysis algorithms that elucidate coupling of different length and timescale behavior (hierarchical phenomena). The different manifestations of hierarchical phenomena are presented across an array of solution environments, emphasizing fundamental and ongoing science questions. With a more advanced molecular understanding in hand, a quintessential application (solvent extraction) is discussed, where significant opportunities exist to re-imagine the technical scope of an established technology.

Servis, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards robust autonomous impedance spectroscopy analysis: A calibrated hierarchical Bayesian approach for electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) inversion

Distribution-based analyses, such as the distribution of relaxation times (DRT) and the distribution of diffusion times (DDT), present model-free alternatives to equivalent circuit modeling for analysis of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data. However, reconstructing such distributions from noisy impedance data is an ill-posed problem that must be solved with specialized inversion algorithms, requiring careful control and tuning. Furthermore, most inversion algorithms developed to date can only solve problems of limited complexity. Herein, we present a new hierarchical Bayesian method for EIS inversion, leveraging efficient algorithms for optimization and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to solve models of arbitrary complexity. We overcome the challenge of ad-hoc parameter tuning by encoding intrinsic characteristics of the DRT and DDT into flexible prior distributions and “pre-calibrating” the model to simulated data. This approach is versatile, highly robust to noise, and provides quantitative estimates of both the error structure of the data and the uncertainty in the recovered distributions. The model is validated with simulated data to demonstrate accurate recovery of the DRT and the DDT. The method also shows promise for simultaneous recovery of multiple distributions, raising the intriguing possibility of semi-autonomous EIS analysis and ad-hoc model construction. Finally, the practical utility of the method is illustrated with experimental data. Throughout, we draw comparisons to several recently published EIS inversion methodologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering multiscale structure-property correlations via active learning in scanning tunneling microscopy

Atomic arrangements and local sub-structures fundamentally influence emergent material functionalities. These structures are conventionally probed using spatially resolved studies and the property correlations are deciphered by a researcher based on sequential explorations, thereby limiting the efficiency and scope. Here we demonstrate a multi-scale Bayesian deep-learning based framework that automatically correlates material structure with its electronic properties using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) measurements in real-time. Its predictions are used to autonomously direct exploration toward regions of the sample that optimize a given material property. This method is deployed on a low-temperature ultra-high vacuum STM to understand the structure-property relationship in a europium-based semimetal, EuZn 2 As 2 , a promising candidate relevant to magnetism-driven topological phenomena. The framework employs a sparse-sampling approach to efficiently construct the scalar-property space using minimal measurements, about 1–10% of the data required in standard hyperspectral methods. Moreover, we formulate the problem hierarchically across length scales, implementing autonomous workflow to locate mesoscopic and atomic structures that correspond to a target material property. This framework offers the choice to design scalar-property from the spectroscopic data to steer sample exploration. Our findings reveal correlations of the electronic properties unique to surface terminations, local defect density, and point defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bootstrapping outperforms community‐weighted approaches for estimating the shapes of phenotypic distributions

Abstract Estimating phenotypic distributions of populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolution. These distributions can be characterized by their moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) or diversity metrics (e.g. functional richness). Typically, such moments and metrics are calculated using community‐weighted approaches (e.g. abundance‐weighted mean). We propose an alternative bootstrapping approach that allows flexibility in trait sampling and explicit incorporation of intraspecific variation, and show that this approach significantly improves estimation while allowing us to quantify uncertainty. We assess the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across various sampling scenarios, taxa and datasets by comparing estimates derived from simulated samples with the true values calculated from full datasets. Simulations differ in sampling intensity (individuals per species), sampling biases (abundance, size), trait data source (local vs. global) and estimation method (two types of community‐weighting, two types of bootstrapping). We introduce the traitstrap R package, which contains a modular and extensible set of bootstrapping and weighted‐averaging functions that use community composition and trait data to estimate the moments of community trait distributions with their uncertainty. Importantly, the first function in the workflow, trait_fill , allows the user to specify hierarchical structures (e.g. plot within site, experiment vs. control, species within genus) to assign trait values to each taxon in each community sample. Across all taxa, simulations and metrics, bootstrapping approaches were more accurate and less biased than community‐weighted approaches. With bootstrapping, a sample size of 9 or more measurements per species per trait generally included the true mean within the 95% CI. It reduced average percent errors by 26%–74% relative to community‐weighting. Random sampling across all species outperformed both size‐ and abundance‐biased sampling. Our results suggest randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, covering all species in the community and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enable reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities. By providing better estimates of community trait distributions, bootstrapping approaches can improve our ability to link traits to both the processes that generate them and their effects on ecosystems.

Maitner, Brian S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microwave-Based Synthesis of Functional Morphological Variants and Carbon Nanotube-Based Composites of VS 4 for Electrochemical Applications

A novel facile, fast, and efficient microwave-assisted method was developed to synthesize a number of diverse nanostructured motifs (ranging from nanorods to nanoflowers) of VS 4 along with its associated composite heterostructures, VS 4 /multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWNT; i.e., multi-walled carbon nanotubes). Specifically, we have probed and correlated the effects of a number of specific experimental variables, including primarily precursor, solvent, temperature, and time. We noted that nanorods formed more readily with VO(acac) 2 as the vanadium precursor and n-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) as a polar reaction solvent. By contrast, we determined that hierarchical three-dimensional (3D) nanoflower-like assemblies, ranging in size from 100 to 200 nm in average diameter, could be controllably synthesized by using Na 3 VO 4 as the vanadium precursor and an aqueous water: polar solvent mixture as the reaction medium. We also observed that VS 4 disintegrates, when in the presence of either air, solution, or a combination of these environments, and established that the extent of VS4 nanorod decomposition could be almost fully prevented by storage under nitrogen. From an application’s perspective, our VS 4 is electrochemically active and shows behavior, consistent with the literature. In particular, as compared with pristine VS 4 nanorods alone, we observed enhanced electrochemical activity with (i) 3D hierarchical flower-like motifs, (ii) unique necklace-like VS 4 nanorod–MWNT composites, and (iii) samples in which as-prepared VS4 nanorods had been annealed. Moreover, we found that the rational application of specific physical and chemical processing treatments, such as (i) thermal annealing to improve crystallinity, (ii) the addition of MWNTs to form conductive composites, and (iii) the evolution of morphology from one-dimensional (1D) nanorods to more complex 3D nanoflowers, was favorable to the resulting electrochemical performance with respect to increasing stability and reversibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation of Hessians in inverse problems, with application to ice sheet model initialization

Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Modeling to Enhance Spectrophotometry Measurements—Overcoming Dynamic Range Limitations for Remote Monitoring of Neptunium

A robust hierarchical model has been demonstrated for monitoring a wide range of neptunium concentrations (0.75–890 mM) and varying temperatures (10–80 °C) using chemometrics and feature selection. The visible–near infrared electronic absorption spectrum (400–1700 nm) of monocharged neptunyl dioxocation (Np(V) = NpO2+) includes many bands, which have molar absorption coefficients that differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude. The shape, position, and intensity of these bands differ with chemical interactions and changing temperature. These challenges make traditional quantification by univariate methods unfeasible. Measuring Np(V) concentration over several orders of magnitude would typically necessitate cells with varying path length, optical switches, and/or multiple spectrophotometers. Alternatively, the differences in the molar extinction coefficients for multiple absorption bands can be used to quantify Np(V) concentration over 3 orders of magnitude with a single optical path length (1 mm) and a hierarchical multivariate model. In this work, principal component analysis was used to distinguish the concentration regime of the sample, directing it to the relevant partial least squares regression submodels. Each submodel was optimized with unique feature selection filters that were selected by a genetic algorithm to enhance predictions. Through this approach, the percent root mean square error of prediction values were ≤1.05% for Np(V) concentrations and ≤4% for temperatures. This approach may be applied to other nuclear fuel cycle and environmental applications requiring real-time spectroscopic measurements over a wide range of conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inorganic characterization of switchgrass biomass using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

The inorganic characterization of 74 samples of switchgrass using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was undertaken. Determination of ash and inorganic elements content in biomass materials is vital for feedstock screening for bioconversion processes. Hierarchical models using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square analysis (PLS) were used to determine the presence of specific elemental micronutrients that are important in determining plant health for robust biomass production. LIBS uses a 532 nm laser with 45 mJ of laser power to excite the samples of switchgrass plant material and the emission of all the elements present in the plant samples were recorded in single spectra with a wide wavelength range of 200–800 nm. The results were compared to the laboratory standard technique, e.g., ICP-OES technique, to determine the true values for major micronutrients such as, silicon (Si), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S). Overall, our objectives were: 1) To determine the spectral features of switchgrass containing different amounts of these elements and 2) To examine the viability of this technique for determining the quality of the feedstock in terms of its inorganic composition. Cross-validation results showed that the broad-based model developed is promising for inorganics prediction in switchgrass. The LIBS validation prediction for the micronutrient elements mentioned here have been obtained. The regression coefficients for Si, were obtained to be 0.995, 0.994 for calibration and validation respectively, in case of Ca the regression coefficients were, 0.994 and 0.992 for calibration and validation. Similarly, in the case of Mg and K these were calculated to be 0.992 and 0.985, and 0.994 and 0.993 respectively. The regression coefficients are not as good as those for the elements mentioned, in case of the two elements S and P. They are 0.957, and 0.878, and 0.952 and 0.894 respectively for calibration, validation for the two elements. This demonstrates that LIBS-based techniques are inherently well suited for diverse environmental applications. Furthermore, LIBS along with PLS model can show capability in determining the viability of switchgrass as a biomass in the production of biofuels and survivability of switchgrass in processes associated with climate change. LIBS can help determining which switchgrass would be appropriate for a specific conversion process that favors low ash content overall or low value of specific inorganics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Flow for robust and optimal cosmological analysis

We propose Multiscale Flow, a generative Normalizing Flow that creates samples and models the field-level likelihood of two-dimensional cosmological data such as weak lensing. Multiscale Flow uses hierarchical decomposition of cosmological fields via a wavelet basis and then models different wavelet components separately as Normalizing Flows. The log-likelihood of the original cosmological field can be recovered by summing over the log-likelihood of each wavelet term. This decomposition allows us to separate the information from different scales and identify distribution shifts in the data such as unknown scale-dependent systematics. The resulting likelihood analysis can not only identify these types of systematics, but can also be made optimal, in the sense that the Multiscale Flow can learn the full likelihood at the field without any dimensionality reduction. We apply Multiscale Flow to weak lensing mock datasets for cosmological inference and show that it significantly outperforms traditional summary statistics such as power spectrum and peak counts, as well as machine learning–based summary statistics such as scattering transform and convolutional neural networks. We further show that Multiscale Flow is able to identify distribution shifts not in the training data such as baryonic effects. Finally, we demonstrate that Multiscale Flow can be used to generate realistic samples of weak lensing data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Chemical Separations: Unraveling the Structure and Dynamics of Phase Splitting in Liquid–Liquid Extraction

Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE), the go-to process for a variety of chemical separations, is limited by spontaneous organic phase splitting upon sufficient solute loading, called third phase formation. In this study we explore the applicability of critical phenomena theory to gain insight into this deleterious phase behavior with the goal of improving separations efficiency and minimizing waste. Here, a series of samples representative of rare earth purification were constructed to include each of one light and one heavy lanthanide (cerium and lutetium) paired with one of two common malonamide extractants (DMDOHEMA and DMDBTDMA). The resulting postextraction organic phases are chemically complex and often form rich hierarchical structures whose statics and dynamics near the critical point were probed herein with small-angle X-ray scattering and high-speed X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. Despite their different extraction behaviors, all samples show remarkably similar critical behavior with exponents well described by classical critical point theory consistent with the 3D Ising model, where the critical behavior is characterized by fluctuations with a single diverging length scale. This unexpected result indicates a significant reduction in relevant chemical parameters at the critical point, indicating that the underlying behavior of phase transitions in LLE rely on far fewer variables than are generally assumed. The obtained scalar order parameter is attributed to the extractant fraction of the extractant/diluent mixture, revealing that other solution components and their respective concentrations simply shift the critical temperature but do not affect the nature of the critical fluctuations. These findings point to an opportunity to drastically simplify studies of liquid-liquid phase separation and phase diagram development in general while providing insights into LLE process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Untangling the Galaxy. II. Structure within 3 kpc

We present the results of the hierarchical clustering analysis of the Gaia DR2 data to search for clusters, comoving groups, and other stellar structures. The current paper builds on the sample from the previous work, extending it in distance from 1 to 3 kpc and increasing the number of identified structures up to 8292. To aid in the analysis of the population properties, we developed a neural network called Auriga to robustly estimate the age, extinction, and distance of a stellar group based on the input photometry and parallaxes of the individual members. We apply Auriga to derive the properties of not only the structures found in this paper, but also previously identified open clusters. Through this work, we examine the temporal structure of the spiral arms. Specifically, we find that the Sagittarius Arm has moved by >500 pc in the last 100 Myr and the Perseus Arm has been experiencing a relative lull in star formation activity over the last 25 Myr. We confirm the findings of the previous paper on the transient nature of the spiral arms, with the timescale of transition of a few 100 Myr. Finally, we find a peculiar ~1 Gyr old stream of stars that appears to be heliocentric. Its origin is unclear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗