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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Greening the grid: decarbonize LANL’s electricity supply through the Los Alamos Power Pool; Net-Zero Buildings: Ensure new buildings are Net-Zero Ready and retrofit existing buildings to minimize Scope 1 emissions; Living laboratory: Leverage LANL’s clean energy R&D expertise to deploy technologies on-site at scale.
As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.
As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.
Traditionally electric grid planning strives to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, social preferences, and the threat landscape evolve, additional considerations for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity and justice. The MOD-Plan framework leverages and extends prior work to provide a framework for integrating incorporating resilience, equity, and decarbonization into integrated distribution system planning.
Lately, solar photovoltaic (PV) has received significant interest due to its economic and environmental benefits. As the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) increases into existing power grids, challenges such as the decrease in short circuit ratio (SCR) are introduced. Here, this paper investigates a case study of the Saudi power grid, examining the voltage stability as the grid transitions from traditional power generation to 100% penetration of solar PV gradually. Moreover, the paper explores the relationship between the increase in solar penetration and the potential effects on the short circuit MVA (SCMVA), which could significantly impact the overall SCR of the system. To meet the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recommendation of maintaining SCR at a particular level, synchronous condensers (SC)s were integrated into the grid. The effectiveness of utilizing SCs to maintain the system voltage at optimal levels in a fully solar grid is also considered. In addition, this paper covers the weak grid analysis via utilizing the Newton-Raphson load flow method, along with PV and QV curve analyses. The purpose behind that is to determine weak bus locations in need of voltage improvements, and to meet the amount of reactive power to be injected. Finally, the amount of power being delivered by SCs will be added progressively in three scenarios to show the enhancements on SCR more precisely.
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Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.
Dramatic improvements to solar technologies and other clean energy technologies have enabled recent rapid growth in deployment and are providing cost-effective options for decarbonizing the U.S. electric grid. The Solar Futures Study explores the role of solar in decarbonizing the grid. Through state-of-the-art modeling, the study envisions deep grid decarbonization by 2035, as driven by a required emissions-reduction target. It also explores how electrification could enable a low-carbon grid to extend decarbonization to the broader energy system (the electric grid plus all direct fuel use in buildings, transportation, and industry) through 2050.
Buildings are energy-intensive and a primary source of US end-use sector carbon emissions. Although building emissions today are 25% below their 2005 peak, far deeper reductions are needed to reach the US 2050 net-zero emissions goal. However, plausible decarbonization pathways that consider both buildings and their interactions with the power grid remain poorly understood. Here, we couple detailed modeling of building energy use and the grid to quantify building decarbonization potential and associated grid impacts. We find up to a 91% reduction in building CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 using a portfolio of building efficiency, demand flexibility, and electrification measures alongside rapid grid decarbonization. Building efficiency and flexibility could generate up to $107 billion in annual power system cost savings by 2050, offsetting over a third of the incremental cost of full grid decarbonization. Our results underscore multiple benefits of demand-side solutions for deep decarbonization of US buildings.
Future electricity grids will be characterized by the high penetration of renewables to support the decarbonization process. Yet, this transition will further expose grids to a broad spectrum of geophysical forces, such as weather and climate, land and space, minerals and materials. Understanding their role is thus important to support the grid decarbonization process. Here, we synthesize the current body of knowledge on the relationship between geophysical constraints and electricity grid planning. Additionally, we show that there have been promising advances in the data, methods, and modelling tools needed to incorporate the effect of geophysical constraints on demand, resource availability, and grid operations. There are, however, multiple research avenues that deserve further attention. More system-specific and finer-scale analyses are necessary to better understand how spatio-temporal variability---and associated uncertainty---in geophysical forces affect grid planning. Moreover, we need a broader focus on the multi-sectoral implications of grid decarbonization efforts, so as to limit the risk of unintended consequences. Importantly, all these efforts are challenged by the computational requirements of existing power system models, which often limit our ability to characterize uncertainty, scale analyses across larger domains, or study the multi-sector implications of grid expansion decisions.
Abstract Decarbonization in the energy sector has been accompanied by an increased penetration of new renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such sources differ from traditional productions in that, first, they induce larger, undispatchable fluctuations in power generation and second, they lack inertia. Recent measurements have indeed reported long, non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of local voltage frequency data. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities, leading in worst-case scenarios to cascading failures and large-scale blackouts. In this article, we investigate how correlated noise disturbances, characterized by the cumulants of their distribution, propagate through meshed, high-voltage power grids. For a single source of fluctuations, we show that long noise correlation times boost non-Gaussian voltage angle fluctuations so that they propagate similarly to Gaussian fluctuations over the entire network. However, they vanish faster, over short distances if the noise fluctuates rapidly. We furthermore demonstrate that a Berry–Esseen theorem leads to the vanishing of non-Gaussianities as the number of uncorrelated noise sources increases. Our predictions are corroborated by numerical simulations on realistic models of power grids.
China is actively promoting vehicle electrification, which is deemed to help achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality goal by 2060. Here we show that vehicle electrification in China leads to an increase in automotive emissions of mercury, a persistent, global hazardous pollutant regulated in the United Nations’ Minamata Convention. We found that with current technologies, life-cycle mercury emissions of battery electric vehicles of 300 miles of all-electric range are 92% higher than conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles, primarily due to the high mercury emissions from coal-based electricity generation. Notably different from greenhouse gases, mercury emissions are mainly embedded in vehicular material production and vehicle manufacturing, accounting for 50–60% for electric vehicles and ~90% for gasoline vehicles of their life-cycle mercury emissions. Even with a deeply decarbonized power grid, mercury footprints of electric vehicles would still be higher than those of gasoline vehicles, implying a potential increase in automotive mercury emissions in any countries that promote vehicle electrification. Measures including decarbonizing electric grid, implementing mercury-specific emission control through vehicle supply chain, and increasing metal recycling in electric vehicle batteries will help mitigate the unintended mercury emission increase caused by vehicle electrification.
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This paper identifies likely drivers of building efficiency over the next ten years and expectations for how efficiency markets may evolve over this period. To prepare these predictions, we conducted an extensive literature review, interviewed 22 experts, reviewed legislation and executive orders in 12 states, and implemented a detailed questionnaire completed by 41 efficiency practitioners. The two most important drivers revealed by our research are (1) public policies and regulations, particularly those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation and (2) the cost of energy relative to the cost of delivering efficiency. Other important drivers are technology changes, economic conditions, social priorities, and industry (including utility) business practices for increasing the uptake of efficiency in buildings. Our research indicates that efficiency markets will increasingly focus on supporting building decarbonization and enabling demand flexibility through the use of controls in grid-interactive efficient buildings and communities. Efficiency improvements for specific technologies (e.g., heat pumps, controls, and windows) and technological advances not specific to energy technologies (e.g., interoperability, artificial intelligence, and universal internet access) will improve the efficacy of efficiency measures and actions. Marketing of efficient products and services will increasingly focus on grid services, decarbonization, non-energy benefits for consumers, and integration with other distributed energy resources (DERs). We anticipate increased investment in disadvantaged and historically underserved communities, recognizing the social, health, and safety benefits of efficient energy usage and remediating historical biases. Lastly, we predict that while state and local government actions will vary, jurisdictions will increase their efficiency goals overall.
Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.
There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) developed an open-source machine learning model, RESERVE, for deriving ancillary services timeseries in deeply decarbonized electricity grids. E3 used a bespoke PLEXOS production simulation model of the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO) balancing area to validate RESERVE’s ability to enable production cost, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and renewable energy curtailment savings. These savings were modeled by comparing PLEXOS cases with RESERVE’s outputs to PLEXOS cases with CAISO’s incumbent reserve product in the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM)’s 15-minute market. E3 also tested cases with solar operating flexibly to provide reserves. E3 found that, in a 2030 modeling year, using RESERVE and flexible solar enabled significant production cost, GHG and curtailment savings versus the incumbent CAISO method in cases with low penetrations of lithium-ion batteries. However, with the full 14 gigawatts (about 30% of peak CAISO demand) of 4-hour lithium-ion batteries that are expected to be installed by 2030, these savings approach zero due to batteries saturating ancillary services markets. E3 also found significant savings under a 2019 benchmarking year.
To achieve its ambitious national decarbonization goals, the United States has incentivized the domestic production of materials critical to decarbonization technologies, including lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). These materials include battery-grade lithium chemicals (Li-chemicals), for which the U.S. is encouraging domestic production from resources (sedimentary clays and low Li-content brines (LLCBs)) that differ substantially from conventional sources (Salar brines and spodumene ores). Here, we conduct the first-ever comparative life-cycle analysis of Li-chemical production from all alternative resources (in the U.S.) and conventional sources based on data from company literature for U.S.-related production efforts. Two energy sources (electricity and natural gas), four material inputs (HCl, NaOH, Na 2 CO 3 , and CaO), and process carbon emissions dominate the life-cycle impacts (≥90% share) of U.S.-based Li-chemical production. Comparatively, the life-cycle impacts of alternative sources-based Li-chemicals lie between those for Li-chemical production from Salar brines and from spodumene ores. At the battery level, the shift in Li-chemical sourcing causes a notable change in LIB's life-cycle impacts (by ~5–15%), independent of the cathode chemistry employed. Our study highlights the relevance of a decarbonized electric grid and the capture and sequestration of process carbon emissions generated during Li-chemical and upstream material production in decarbonizing Li-chemical production from alternative sources. Further decarbonization would necessitate using decarbonized material inputs and a shift away from natural gas towards renewable energy for alternative resource-based Li-chemical production processes.