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At least 55 records · Page 3

Soil Sampling Techniques For Alabama Grain Fields

Characterizing the spatial variability of nutrients facilitates precision soil sampling. Questions exist regarding the best technique for directed soil sampling based on a priori knowledge of soil and crop patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate zone delineation techniques for Alabama grain fields to determine which method best minimized the soil test variability. Site one (25.8 ha) and site three (20.0 ha) were located in the Tennessee Valley region, and site two (24.2 ha) was located in the Coastal Plain region of Alabama. Tennessee Valley soils ranged from well drained Rhodic and Typic Paleudults to somewhat poorly drained Aquic Paleudults and Fluventic Dystrudepts. Coastal Plain s o i l s ranged from coarse-loamy Rhodic Kandiudults to loamy Arenic Kandiudults. Soils were sampled by grid soil sampling methods (grid sizes of 0.40 ha and 1 ha) consisting of: 1) twenty composited cores collected randomly throughout each grid (grid-cell sampling) and, 2) six composited cores collected randomly from a -3x3 m area at the center of each grid (grid-point sampling). Zones were established from 1) an Order 1 Soil Survey, 2) corn (Zea mays L.) yield maps, and 3) airborne remote sensing images. All soil properties were moderately to strongly spatially dependent as per semivariogram analyses. Differences in grid-point and grid-cell soil test values suggested grid-point sampling does not accurately represent grid values. Zones created by soil survey, yield data, and remote sensing images displayed lower coefficient of variations (8CV) for soil test values than overall field values, suggesting these techniques group soil test variability. However, few differences were observed between the three zone delineation techniques. Results suggest directed sampling using zone delineation techniques outlined in this paper would result in more efficient soil sampling for these Alabama grain fields.

Thompson, A. N.↗

On the Formation of Massive Stars

We calculate numerically the collapse of slowly rotating, nonmagnetic, massive molecular clumps of masses 30,60, and 120 Stellar Mass, which conceivably could lead to the formation of massive stars. Because radiative acceleration on dust grains plays a critical role in the clump's dynamical evolution, we have improved the module for continuum radiation transfer in an existing two-dimensional (axial symmetry assumed) radiation hydrodynamic code. In particular, rather than using "gray" dust opacities and "gray" radiation transfer, we calculate the dust's wavelength-dependent absorption and emission simultaneously with the radiation density at each wavelength and the equilibrium temperatures of three grain components: amorphous carbon particles. silicates, and " dirty ice " -coated silicates. Because our simulations cannot spatially resolve the innermost regions of the molecular clump, however, we cannot distinguish between the formation of a dense central cluster or a single massive object. Furthermore, we cannot exclude significant mass loss from the central object(s) that may interact with the inflow into the central grid cell. Thus, with our basic assumption that all material in the innermost grid cell accretes onto a single object. we are able to provide only an upper limit to the mass of stars that could possibly be formed. We introduce a semianalytical scheme for augmenting existing evolutionary tracks of pre-main-sequence protostars by including the effects of accretion. By considering an open outermost boundary, an arbitrary amount of material could, in principal, be accreted onto this central star. However, for the three cases considered (30, 60, and 120 Stellar Mass originally within the computation grid), radiation acceleration limited the final masses to 3 1.6, 33.6, and 42.9 Stellar Mass, respectively, for wavelength-dependent radiation transfer and to 19.1, 20.1, and 22.9 Stellar Mass. for the corresponding simulations with gray radiation transfer. Our calculations demonstrate that massive stars can in principle be formed via accretion through a disk. The accretion rate onto the central source increases rapidly after one initial free-fall time and decreases monotonically afterward. By enhancing the nonisotropic character of the radiation field, the accretion disk reduces the effects of radiative acceleration in the radial direction - a process we call the "flashlight effect." The flashlight effect is further amplified in our case by including the effects of frequency-dependent radiation transfer. We conclude with the warning that a careful treatment of radiation transfer is a mandatory requirement for realistic simulations of the formation of massive stars.

Yorke, Harold W.↗

A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at least partially explained by assumptions in ambient aerosol properties. Overall, the NASA/POWER solar radiation data are a promising resource for regional modeling studies where realistic accounting of historic variation is required.

White, Jeffrey W.↗

A 3-D Nodal-Averaged Gradient Approach for Unstructured-Grid Cell-Centered Finite-Volume Methods for Application to Turbulent Hypersonic Flow

A 2-D nodal weighted least-squares gradient method and a related face-averaged nodal gradient approach that were developed for use with triangular grids are extended to 3-D for use with tetrahedral grids. In addition, a method, developed in 2-D, to stabilize the iterative convergence of these methods on quadrilateral cells is described and extended to 3-D and remedies are investigated to determine the nodal gradient averaging approach most suitable for use with grids made up of hexahedral, prismatic, pyramidal and tetrahedral cells. Moreover, due to an interest in hypersonic flow, a robust multidimensional gradient limiter procedure that is consistent with the stencil used to construct the nodal gradients is described. Finally, we demonstrate that the resulting 3-D methods are sufficiently robust for use in scramjet computations through the solution of three canonical turbulent hypersonic flow problems as well as a physically realistic 3-D scramjet inlet geometry.

Jeffery A White↗

Effects of habitat map generalization in biodiversity assessment

Species richness is being mapped as part of an inventory of biological diversity in California (i.e., gap analysis). Species distributions are modeled with a GIS on the basis of maps of each species' preferred habitats. Species richness is then tallied in equal-area sampling units. A GIS sensitivity analysis examined the effects of the level of generalization of the habitat map on the predicted distribution of species richness in the southern Sierra Nevada. As the habitat map was generalized, the number of habitat types mapped within grid cells tended to decrease with a corresponding decline in numbers of species predicted. Further, the ranking of grid cells in order of predicted numbers of species changed dramatically between levels of generalization. Areas predicted to be of greatest conservation value on the basis of species richness may therefore be sensitive to GIS data resolution.

Stoms, David M.↗

Achieving Accuracy Requirements for Forest Biomass Mapping: A Data Fusion Method for Estimating Forest Biomass and LiDAR Sampling Error with Spaceborne Data

The synergistic use of active and passive remote sensing (i.e., data fusion) demonstrates the ability of spaceborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral imagery for achieving the accuracy requirements of a global forest biomass mapping mission. This data fusion approach also provides a means to extend 3D information from discrete spaceborne LiDAR measurements of forest structure across scales much larger than that of the LiDAR footprint. For estimating biomass, these measurements mix a number of errors including those associated with LiDAR footprint sampling over regional - global extents. A general framework for mapping above ground live forest biomass (AGB) with a data fusion approach is presented and verified using data from NASA field campaigns near Howland, ME, USA, to assess AGB and LiDAR sampling errors across a regionally representative landscape. We combined SAR and Landsat-derived optical (passive optical) image data to identify forest patches, and used image and simulated spaceborne LiDAR data to compute AGB and estimate LiDAR sampling error for forest patches and 100m, 250m, 500m, and 1km grid cells. Forest patches were delineated with Landsat-derived data and airborne SAR imagery, and simulated spaceborne LiDAR (SSL) data were derived from orbit and cloud cover simulations and airborne data from NASA's Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (L VIS). At both the patch and grid scales, we evaluated differences in AGB estimation and sampling error from the combined use of LiDAR with both SAR and passive optical and with either SAR or passive optical alone. This data fusion approach demonstrates that incorporating forest patches into the AGB mapping framework can provide sub-grid forest information for coarser grid-level AGB reporting, and that combining simulated spaceborne LiDAR with SAR and passive optical data are most useful for estimating AGB when measurements from LiDAR are limited because they minimized forest AGB sampling errors by 15 - 38%. Furthermore, spaceborne global scale accuracy requirements were achieved. At least 80% of the grid cells at 100m, 250m, 500m, and 1km grid levels met AGB density accuracy requirements using a combination of passive optical and SAR along with machine learning methods to predict vegetation structure metrics for forested areas without LiDAR samples. Finally, using either passive optical or SAR, accuracy requirements were met at the 500m and 250m grid level, respectively.

Montesano, P. M.↗

Picturing Data With Uncertainty

NASA is in the business of creating maps for scientific purposes to represent important biophysical or geophysical quantities over space and time. For example, maps of surface temperature over the globe tell scientists where and when the Earth is heating up; regional maps of the greenness of vegetation tell scientists where and when plants are photosynthesizing. There is always uncertainty associated with each value in any such map due to various factors. When uncertainty is fully modeled, instead of a single value at each map location, there is a distribution expressing a set of possible outcomes at each location. We consider such distribution data as multi-valued data since it consists of a collection of values about a single variable. Thus, a multi-valued data represents both the map and its uncertainty. We have been working on ways to visualize spatial multi-valued data sets effectively for fields with regularly spaced units or grid cells such as those in NASA's Earth science applications. A new way to display distributions at multiple grid locations is to project the distributions from an individual row, column or other user-selectable straight transect from the 2D domain. First at each grid cell in a given slice (row, column or transect), we compute a smooth density estimate from the underlying data. Such a density estimate for the probability density function (PDF) is generally more useful than a histogram, which is a classic density estimate. Then, the collection of PDFs along a given slice are presented vertically above the slice and form a wall. To minimize occlusion of intersecting slices, the corresponding walls are positioned at the far edges of the boundary. The PDF wall depicts the shapes of the distributions very dearly since peaks represent the modes (or bumps) in the PDFs. We've defined roughness as the number of peaks in the distribution. Roughness is another useful summary information for multimodal distributions. The uncertainty of the multi-valued data can also be interpreted by the number of peaks and the widths of the peaks as shown by the PDF walls.

Kao, David↗

The Impacts of Bowtie Effect and View Angle Discontinuity on MODIS Swath Data Gridding

We have analyzed two effects of the MODIS viewing geometry on the quality of gridded imagery. First, the fact that the MODIS scans a swath of the Earth 10 km wide at nadir, causes abrupt change of the view azimuth angle at the boundary of adjacent scans. This discontinuity appears as striping of the image clearly visible in certain cases with viewing geometry close to principle plane over the snow of the glint area of water. The striping is a true surface Bi-directional Reflectance Factor (BRF) effect and should be preserved during gridding. Second, due to bowtie effect, the observations in adjacent scans overlap each other. Commonly used method of calculating grid cell value by averaging all overlapping observations may result in smearing of the image. This paper describes a refined gridding algorithm that takes the above two effects into account. By calculating the grid cell value by averaging the overlapping observations from a single scan, the new algorithm preserves the measured BRF signal and enhances sharpness of the image.

Wang, Yujie↗

Assessing the Impacts of Two Averaging Methods on AIRS Level 3 Monthly Products and Multi-Year Monthly Means

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite provides more than 16 years of data. Its monthly gridded (Level 3) product has been widely used for climate research and applications. Since counts of successful soundings in a grid cell are used to derive monthly averages, this “Averaged By Observations (ABO)” approach effectively gives equal importance to all participating soundings within a month. It is conceivable, then, that days with more observations due to day-to-day orbit shift and regimes with better retrieval skills, will contribute disproportionately to the monthly average within a cell. Alternatively, the AIRS Level 3 monthly product can be produced through an "Averaged By Days (ABD)” approach, where the monthly mean in a grid cell is a simple average of the daily means. The effects of these averaging methods on the AIRS version 6 monthly product are assessed quantitatively using temperature and water vapor at surface and 500hPa. The ABO method results in a warmer (slightly colder) global mean temperature at surface (500hPa) and a drier global mean water vapor than ABD method. The AIRS multi-year monthly mean temperature and water vapor from both methods are also compared with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications – 2 (MERRA-2) product and evaluated with a simulation experiment, indicating the ABD method has less error and is more closely correlated with MERRA-2. In summary, the ABD method is recommended for future versions of the AIRS Level 3 monthly product and more data services supporting Level 3 aggregation are needed.

AIRS↗

Development and Evaluation of a Cloud-Gap-Filled MODIS Daily Snow-Cover Product

The utility of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products is limited by cloud cover which causes gaps in the daily snow-cover map products. We describe a cloud-gap-filled (CGF) daily snowcover map using a simple algorithm to track cloud persistence, to account for the uncertainty created by the age of the snow observation. Developed from the 0.050 resolution climate-modeling grid daily snow-cover product, MOD10C1, each grid cell of the CGF map provides a cloud-persistence count (CPC) that tells whether the current or a prior day was used to make the snow decision. Percentage of grid cells "observable" is shown to increase dramatically when prior days are considered. The effectiveness of the CGF product is evaluated by conducting a suite of data assimilation experiments using the community Noah land surface model in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The Noah model forecasts of snow conditions, such as snow-water equivalent (SWE), are updated based on the observations of snow cover which are obtained either from the MOD1 OC1 standard product or the new CGF product. The assimilation integrations using the CGF maps provide domain averaged bias improvement of -11 %, whereas such improvement using the standard MOD1 OC1 maps is -3%. These improvements suggest that the Noah model underestimates SWE and snow depth fields, and that the assimilation integrations contribute to correcting this systematic error. We conclude that the gap-filling strategy is an effective approach for increasing cloud-free observations of snow cover.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Impact of Spatial Sampling on Continuity of MODIS-VIIRS Land Surface Reflectance Products: A Simulation Approach

With the increasing need to construct long-term climate-quality data records to understand, monitor, and predict climate variability and change, it is vital to continue systematic satellite measurements along with the development of new technology for more quantitative and accurate observations. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership mission provides continuity in monitoring the Earths surface and its atmosphere in a similar fashion as the heritage MODIS instruments onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administrations Terra and Aqua satellites. In this paper, we aim at quantifying the consistency of Aqua MODIS and Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Land Surface Reflectance (LSR) and NDVI products as related to their inherent spatial sampling characteristics. To avoid interferences from sources of measurement and/or processing errors other than spatial sampling, including calibration, atmospheric correction, and the effects of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the MODIS and VIIRSLSR products were simulated using the Landsat-8s Operational Land Imager (OLI) LSR products. The simulations were performed using the instruments point spread functions on a daily basis for various OLI scenes over a 16-day orbit cycle. It was found that the daily mean differences due to discrepancies in spatial sampling remain below 0.0015 (1) in absolute surface reflectance at subgranule scale (i.e., OLI scene size).We also found that the MODISVIIRS product intercomparisons appear to be minimally impacted when differences in the corresponding view zenith angles (VZAs) are within the range of -15deg to -35deg (VZA(sub v) - VZA(sub m)), where VIIRS and MODIS footprints resemble in size. In general, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of the OLI scene contents, per-grid-cell differences can reach up to 20.Further spatial analysis of the simulated NDVI and LSR products revealed that, depending on the user accuracy requirements for product intercomparisons, spatial aggregations may be used. It was found that if per-grid-cell differences on the order of 10(in LSR or NDVI) are tolerated, the product intercomparisons are expected to be immune from differences in spatial sampling.

VIIRS↗

Weekly Gridded Aquarius L-band Radiometer-scatterometer Observations and Salinity Retrievals over the Polar Regions - Part 1: Product Description

Passive and active observations at L band (frequency (is) approximately 1.4 GHz) from the Aquarius/SAC-D mission offer new capabilities to study the polar regions. Due to the lack of polar-gridded products, however, applications over the cryosphere have been limited. We present three weekly polar-gridded products of Aquarius data to improve our understanding of L-band observations of ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, and the polar oceans. Additionally, these products intend to facilitate access to L-band data, and can be used to assist in algorithm developments. Aquarius data at latitudes higher than 50 degrees are averaged and gridded into weekly products of brightness temperature (TB), normalized radar cross section (NRCS), and sea surface salinity (SSS). Each grid cell also contains sea ice fraction, the standard deviation of TB, NRCS, and SSS, and the number of footprint observations collected during the seven-day cycle. The largest 3 dB footprint dimensions are 97 km×156 km and 74 km×122 km (along × across track) for the radiometers and scatterometer, respectively. The data is gridded to the Equal-Area Scalable Earth version 2.0 (EASE2.0) grid, with a grid cell resolution of 36 km. The data sets start in August 2011, with the first Aquarius observations and will be updated on a monthly basis following the release schedule of the Aquarius Level 2 data sets. The weekly gridded products are distributed by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center at http://nsidc.org/data/aquarius/index.html

Aquarius↗

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of The Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether, or under which conditions, a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy-permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using the following two different reference frames: static cloudy updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks, we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

aerosols↗

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of the Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy-updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

Daniel Hernandez-Deckers↗

The construction of high-accuracy schemes for acoustic equations

An accuracy analysis of various high order schemes is performed from an interpolation point of view. The analysis indicates that classical high order finite difference schemes, which use polynomial interpolation, hold high accuracy only at nodes and are therefore not suitable for time-dependent problems. Thus, some schemes improve their numerical accuracy within grid cells by the near-minimax approximation method, but their practical significance is degraded by maintaining the same stencil as classical schemes. One-step methods in space discretization, which use piecewise polynomial interpolation and involve data at only two points, can generate a uniform accuracy over the whole grid cell and avoid spurious roots. As a result, they are more accurate and efficient than multistep methods. In particular, the Cubic-Interpolated Psuedoparticle (CIP) scheme is recommended for computational acoustics.

Tang, Lei↗

Parallel Simulation of Unsteady Turbulent Flames

Time-accurate simulation of turbulent flames in high Reynolds number flows is a challenging task since both fluid dynamics and combustion must be modeled accurately. To numerically simulate this phenomenon, very large computer resources (both time and memory) are required. Although current vector supercomputers are capable of providing adequate resources for simulations of this nature, the high cost and their limited availability, makes practical use of such machines less than satisfactory. At the same time, the explicit time integration algorithms used in unsteady flow simulations often possess a very high degree of parallelism, making them very amenable to efficient implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Under these circumstances, distributed memory parallel computers offer an excellent near-term solution for greatly increased computational speed and memory, at a cost that may render the unsteady simulations of the type discussed above more feasible and affordable.This paper discusses the study of unsteady turbulent flames using a simulation algorithm that is capable of retaining high parallel efficiency on distributed memory parallel architectures. Numerical studies are carried out using large-eddy simulation (LES). In LES, the scales larger than the grid are computed using a time- and space-accurate scheme, while the unresolved small scales are modeled using eddy viscosity based subgrid models. This is acceptable for the moment/energy closure since the small scales primarily provide a dissipative mechanism for the energy transferred from the large scales. However, for combustion to occur, the species must first undergo mixing at the small scales and then come into molecular contact. Therefore, global models cannot be used. Recently, a new model for turbulent combustion was developed, in which the combustion is modeled, within the subgrid (small-scales) using a methodology that simulates the mixing and the molecular transport and the chemical kinetics within each LES grid cell. Finite-rate kinetics can be included without any closure and this approach actually provides a means to predict the turbulent rates and the turbulent flame speed. The subgrid combustion model requires resolution of the local time scales associated with small-scale mixing, molecular diffusion and chemical kinetics and, therefore, within each grid cell, a significant amount of computations must be carried out before the large-scale (LES resolved) effects are incorporated. Therefore, this approach is uniquely suited for parallel processing and has been implemented on various systems such as: Intel Paragon, IBM SP-2, Cray T3D and SGI Power Challenge (PC) using the system independent Message Passing Interface (MPI) compiler. In this paper, timing data on these machines is reported along with some characteristic results.

Menon, Suresh↗

Creating Gridded Fire Probability Maps using NASA Data

Fire is a nationally and globally significant process that strongly affects human–dominated and wild landscapes. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop the world's first grid-based wildfire probability product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use multiple satellites and ancillary data to weigh the likelihood of fire, based on a number of sources that verify a fire burning in a grid cell and the level of confidence in the data source. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence than VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) active-fire detection data; and VIIRS active-fire detection data have a higher-level of confidence than MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active-fire detection data. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski↗

(GO)2-SIM: a GCM-Oriented Ground-Observation Forward-Simulator Framework for Objective Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Phase

General circulation model (GCM) evaluation using ground-based observations is complicated by inconsistencies in hydrometeor and phase definitions. Here we describe (GO)2-SIM, a forward simulator designed for objective hydrometeor-phase evaluation, and assess its performance over the North Slope of Alaska using a 1-year GCM simulation. For uncertainty assessment, 18 empirical relationships are used to convert model grid-average hydrometeor (liquid and ice, cloud, and precipitation) water contents to zenith polarimetric micropulse lidar and Ka-band Doppler radar measurements, producing an ensemble of 576 forward-simulation realizations. Sensor limitations are represented in forward space to objectively remove from consideration model grid cells with undetectable hydrometeor mixing ratios, some of which may correspond to numerical noise.Phase classification in forward space is complicated by the inability of sensors to measure ice and liquid signals distinctly. However, signatures exist in lidar–radar space such that thresholds on observables can be objectively estimated and related to hydrometeor phase. The proposed phase-classification technique leads to misclassification in fewer than 8% of hydrometeor-containing grid cells. Such misclassifications arise because, while the radar is capable of detecting mixed-phase conditions, it can mistake water- for ice-dominated layers. However, applying the same classification algorithm to forward-simulated and observed fields should generate hydrometeor-phase statistics with similar uncertainty. Alternatively, choosing to disregard how sensors define hydrometeor phase leads to frequency of occurrence discrepancies of up to 40%. So, while hydrometeor-phase maps determined in forward space are very different from model "reality" they capture the information sensors can provide and thereby enable objective model evaluation.

Lamer, K.↗