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At least 55 records · Page 3

Biological methanogenesis and the CO2 greenhouse effect

It is well established that plants tend to increase net photosynthesis under increased carbon dioxide. It is also well established that a large fraction of atmospheric methane is produced by microbial metabolism of organic sediments in paddies and freshwater wetlands, where a major source of organic debris is local plant growth. As CO2 increases, it may lead to increased methane production and a resulting enhancement of the expected greenhouse warming. A rough estimate of the present rate of this biologically mediated feedback on the climate system indicates that it might account for as much as 30 percent of the observed methane increase and speed up the greenhouse forcing by as much as 15 percent.

Guthrie, P. D.↗

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Charlson, R. J.↗

Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low-frequency modes of the precipitation distribution and might reduce its low frequency variability in the tropics while increasing it in northern latitudes.

Bounoua, L.↗

Methane Production by Microbial Mats Under Low Sulfate Concentrations

Cyanobacterial mats collected in hypersaline salterns were incubated in a greenhouse under low sulfate concentrations ([SO4]) and examined for their primary productivity and emissions of methane and other major carbon species. Atmospheric greenhouse warming by gases such as carbon dioxide and methane must have been greater during the Archean than today in order to account for a record of moderate to warm paleoclemates, despite a less luminous early sun. It has been suggested that decreased levels of oxygen and sulfate in Archean oceans could have significantly stimulated microbial methanogenesis relative to present marine rates, with a resultant increase in the relative importance of methane in maintaining the early greenhouse. We maintained modern microbial mats, models of ancient coastal marine communities, in artificial brine mixtures containing both modern [SO4=] (ca. 70 mM) and "Archean" [SO4] (less than 0.2 mM). At low [SO4], primary production in the mats was essentially unaffected, while rates of sulfate reduction decreased by a factor of three, and methane fluxes increased by up to ten-fold. However, remineralization by methanogenesis still amounted to less than 0.4 % of the total carbon released by the mats. The relatively low efficiency of conversion of photosynthate to methane is suggested to reflect the particular geometry and chemical microenvironment of hypersaline cyanobacterial mats. Therefore, such mats w-ere probably relatively weak net sources of methane throughout their 3.5 Ga history, even during periods of low- environmental levels oxygen and sulfate.

Bebout, Brad M.↗

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

Fisher, Donald A.↗

Proposed law of nature linking impacts, plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles to terrestrial vertebrate mass extinctions via greenhouse-embryo death coupling

A greenhouse-physiological coupling killing mechanism active among mammals, birds, and reptiles has been identified. Operating via environmental thermal effects upon the maternal core-skin blood flow critical to the survival and development of embryos, it reduces the flow of blood to the uterine tract. Today, during hot summers, this phenomena kills embryos on a vast, global scale. Because of sensitivity of many mammals to modern heat, a major modern greenhouse could reduce population numbers on a global scale, and potentially trigger population collapses in the more vulnerable parts of the world. In the geological past, the killing mechanism has likely been triggered into action by greenhouse warming via impact events, plume volcanism, and Earth orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles). Earth's biosphere is maintained and molded by the flow of energy from the solar energy source to Earth and on to the space energy sink (SES). This SES energy flow maintains Earth's biosphere and its living components, as open, intermediate, dissipative, nonequilibrium systems whose states are dependent upon the rate of energy flowing through them. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere influence the SES energy flow rate. Steady-state flow is necessary for global ecological stability (autopoiesis). Natural fluctuations of the C cycle such as rapid releases of CO2 from the mantle, or oceans, disrupt steady-state SES flow. These fluctuations constantly challenge the biosphere; slowdown of SES energy flow drives it toward thermodynamical equilibrium and stagnation. Fluctuations induced by impact event, mantle plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles can grow into structure-breaking waves triggering major perturbations of Earth's C cycle and mass extinctions. A major C cycle perturbation involves readjustment of the outer physiochemical spheres of the Earth: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere; and by necessity, the biosphere. A greenhouse, one manifestation of a major C cycle perturbation, is the most dangerous natural phenomenon that life on Earth can experience. Greenhouse conditions existed during the KT mass extinctions of 65 m.y. ago, and the Pleistocene-Holocene (P-H) mammalian extinctions of 10,000-12,000 yr ago. Coupling climatology to reproductive physiology via effects of ambient air temperature upon uterine blood flow to developing embryos accounts for the extinctions via established physiological principles.

Mclean, D. M.↗

Climate Change on Mars

Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

Haberle, R. M.↗

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable at the surface. But there is evidence that very early in its history, some 3.7-4.1 billion years ago, the climate system supported much warmer conditions including an active hydrological cycle with rainfall and runoff. Given the importance of liquid water to astrobiology and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, researchers have been trying to understand the ancient martian climate system since the early 1970s when the Mariner 9 spacecraft first detected fluvial features on its oldest terrains. Though the evidence for warm wet conditions is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed the sun’s luminosity was ~25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of ancient Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the “Faint Young Sun Paradox”, as it is commonly known, rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, for Mars there is no solution in sight. Long-lived continuously warm and wet atmospheres are difficult to produce and sustain. And a new and emerging idea - that ancient Mars was fundamentally a cold planet with transient episodes of warm wet conditions brought about by external forcings such as impacts, volcanism, and/or orbital changes – also has issues. In this seminar I will review this fascinating topic and discuss some of the recent ideas on how to solve it, the issues they raise, and what I believe are some promising avenues for future research.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

The early faint sun paradox: organic shielding of ultraviolet-labile greenhouse gases

Atmospheric mixing ratios of approximately 10(-5 +/- 1) for ammonia on the early Earth would have been sufficient, through the resulting greenhouse warming, to counteract the temperature effects of the faint early sun. One argument against such model atmospheres has been the short time scale for ammonia photodissociation by solar ultraviolet light. Here it is shown that ultraviolet absorption by steady-state amounts of high-altitude organic solids produced from methane photolysis may have shielded ammonia sufficiently that ammonia resupply rates were able to maintain surface temperatures above freezing.

Non-NASA Center↗

Energy, volatile production, and climatic effects of the Chicxulub Cretaceous/Tertiary impact

A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact. Additional volatiles may have been produced on a global or regional scale that formed sulfate aerosols rapidly in cooler parts of the vapor plume, causing an early, intense pulse of sulfuric acid rain. Estimates of the conversion rate of stratospheric SO2 and water vapor to sulfate aerosol, based on volcanic production of sulfate aerosols, coupled with calculations of diffusion, coagulation, and sedimentation, demonstrate that the 200 Gt stratospheric SO2 and water vapor reservoir would produce sulfate aerosols for 12 years. These sulfate aerosols caused a second pulse of acid rain that was global. Radiative transfer modeling of the aerosol clouds demonstrates (1) that if the initial rapid pulse of sulfate aerosols was global, photosynthesis may have been shut down for 6 months and (2) that for the second prolonged aerosol cloud, solar transmission dropped 80% by the end of first year and remained 50% below normal for 9 years. As a result, global average surface temperatures probably dropped between 5 degrees and 31 degrees K, suggesting that global near-freezing conditions may have been reached. Impact-generated CO2 caused less than 1 degree K greenhouse warming and therefore was insignificant compare to the sulfate cooling. The magnitude of sulfate cooling depends largely upon the rate of ocean mixing as surface waters cool, sink, and are replaced by upwelling of deep ocean water. This upwelling apparently drastically altered ocean stratification and circulation, which may explain the global collapse of the delta 13C gradient between surface and deep ocean waters at the K/T boundary.

NASA Center JPL↗

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the elevated heat pump hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South .and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Canister valve and actuator deposition in metered dose inhalers formulated with low-GWP propellants

A challenge in pressurised metered-dose inhaler (pMDI) formulation design is management of adhesion of the drug to the canister wall, valve and actuator internal components and surfaces. Wall-material interactions differ between transparent vials used for visual inspection and metal canister pMDI systems. This is of particular concern for low greenhouse warming potential (GWP) formulations where propellant chemistry and solubility with many drugs are not well understood. In this study, we demonstrate a novel application of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy using synchrotron radiation to assay the contents of surrogate solution and suspension pMDI formulations of potassium iodide and barium sulphate in propellants HFA134a, HFA152a and HFO1234ze(E) using aluminium canisters and standard components. Preliminary results indicate that through unit life drug distribution in the canister valve closure region and actuator can vary significantly with new propellants. For solution formulations HFO1234ze(E) propellant shows the greatest increase in local deposition inside the canister valve closure region as compared to HFA134a and HFA152a, with correspondingly reduced actuator deposition. This is likely driven by chemistry changes. For suspension formulations HFA152a shows the greatest differences, due to its low specific gravity. These changes must be taken into consideration in the development of products utilising low-GWP propellants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Role of Leaf Area Changes Within Plant CO 2 Physiological Impacts on the Global Hydrological Cycle

Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations enhance greenhouse warming and drive changes to plant physiology, leading to innumerable climate impacts. This study explores the impacts of plant responses on hydrological cycling at 2x preindustrial CO 2 concentrations by analyzing simulations that isolate plant physiological effects using the Community Earth System Model versions 1 and 2. We find that leaf area growth increases canopy evaporation, which offsets transpiration declines, and dampens changes in global mean evapotranspiration, precipitation, and runoff in a CESM2 experiment with dynamic leaf area. These leaf area impacts are also evident in the differences between CESM1 and CESM2, with CESM2 better capturing observed leaf area magnitudes but potentially overestimating leaf area-CO 2 sensitivity, highlighting the importance of plant CO 2 physiology on hydrological cycle changes and the need to improve its representation in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse

Earth’s climate during the last 4.6 billion years has changed repeatedly between cold (icehouse) and warm (greenhouse) conditions. The hottest conditions (supergreenhouse) are widely assumed to have lacked an active cryosphere. Here we show that during the archetypal supergreenhouse Cretaceous Earth, an active cryosphere with permafrost existed in Chinese plateau deserts (astrochonological age ca. 132.49–132.17 Ma), and that a modern analogue for these plateau cryospheric conditions is the aeolian–permafrost system we report from the Qiongkuai Lebashi Lake area, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Significantly, Cretaceous plateau permafrost was coeval with largely marine cryospheric indicators in the Arctic and Australia, indicating a strong coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system. The Cretaceous permafrost contained a rich microbiome at subtropical palaeolatitude and 3–4 km palaeoaltitude, analogous to recent permafrost in the western Himalayas. A mindset of persistent ice-free greenhouse conditions during the Cretaceous has stifled consideration of permafrost thaw as a contributor of C and nutrients to the palaeo-oceans and palaeo-atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗