Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “global energy systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Manufacturing and Materials for Hydropower: Challenges and Opportunities

Hydropower is a well-established industry that has been largely contributing to the global generation of clean and renewable energy for more than a century. In the United States in 2021, it accounted for 30% of all renewable energy generation and 6.1% of the total energy portfolio. Hydropower technology and designs have been optimized throughout the years, but manufacturing of hydropower components still relies heavily on traditional methods and materials. Changes in global energy production systems and international supply chain issues are inspiring the manufacturing sector to reconsider their processes. Similarly, the hydropower industry is facing manufacturing challenges stemming from well-known maintenance issues, environmental impact mitigations, and changes in operations. These challenges, along with continued innovation in new hydropower and pumped storage development and modernization of the fleet, present an opportunity for advanced manufacturing and materials (AMM) to provide immense value to the hydropower industry. In support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), this report aims to characterize the current and emerging manufacturing-related challenges in US hydropower and to identify the high-impact opportunities in AMM that could address these challenges. The results highlighted in this report were collected through literature review, individual stakeholder interviews, and an in-person workshop organized at DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory Manufacturing Demonstration Facility that brought together hydropower industry stakeholders, advanced manufacturing R&D, and the government.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Case Study Investigating the Low Summertime CAPE Behavior in the Global Forecast System

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important index for storm forecasting. Recent versions (v15.2 and v16) of the Global Forecast System (GFS) predict lower values of CAPE during summertime in the continental United States than analysis and observation. We conducted an evaluation of the GFS in simulating summertime CAPE using an example from the Unified Forecast System Case Study collection to investigate the factors that lead to the low CAPE bias in GFS. Specifically, we investigated the surface energy budget, soil properties, and near-surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Results show that the GFS simulates smaller surface latent heat flux and larger surface sensible heat flux than the observations. This can be attributed to the slightly drier-than-observed soil moisture in the GFS that comes from an offline global land data assimilation system. The lower simulated CAPE in GFS v16 is related to the early drop of surface net radiation with excessive boundary layer cloud after midday when compared with GFS v15.2. A moisture-budget analysis indicates that errors in the large-scale advection of water vapor does not contribute to the dry bias in the GFS at low levels. Common Community Physics Package single-column model (SCM) experiments suggest that with realistic initial vertical profiles, SCM simulations generate a larger CAPE than runs with GFS IC. SCM runs with an active LSM tend to produce smaller CAPE than that with prescribed surface fluxes. Note that the findings are only applicable to this case study. Including more warm-season cases would enhance the generalizability of our findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating environmental understanding into freshwater floatovoltaic deployment using an effects hierarchy and decision trees

Abstract In an era of looming land scarcity and environmental degradation, the development of low carbon energy systems without adverse impacts on land and land-based resources is a global challenge. ‘Floatovoltaic’ energy systems—comprising floating photovoltaic (PV) panels over water—are an appealing source of low carbon energy as they spare land for other uses and attain greater electricity outputs compared to land-based systems. However, to date little is understood of the impacts of floatovoltaics on the hosting water body. Anticipating changes to water body processes, properties and services owing to floatovoltaic deployment represents a critical knowledge gap that may result in poor societal choices and water body governance. Here, we developed a theoretically-derived hierarchical effects framework for the assessment of floatovoltaic impacts on freshwater water bodies, emphasising ecological interactions. We describe how the presence of floatovoltaic systems may dramatically alter the air-water interface, with subsequent implications for surface meteorology, air-water fluxes and physical, chemical and biological properties of the recipient water body. We apply knowledge from this framework to delineate three response typologies—‘ magnitude’ , those for which the direction and magnitude of effect can be predicted; ‘ direction’ , those for which only the direction of effect can be predicted; and ‘ uncertain’ , those for which the response cannot be predicted—characterised by the relative importance of levels in the effects hierarchy. Illustrative decision trees are developed for an example water body response within each typology, specifically, evaporative water loss, cyanobacterial biomass, and phosphorus release from bed sediments, and implications for ecosystem services, including climate regulation, are discussed. Finally, the potential to use the new understanding of likely ecosystem perturbations to direct floatovoltaic design innovations and identify future research priorities is outlined, showcasing how inter-sectoral collaboration and environmental science can inform and optimise this low carbon, land-sparing renewable energy for ecosystem gains.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Operation of Energy Systems with Large Amounts of Variable Generation: IEA Wind TCP Task 25 (Final Summary Report)

This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Strategies for Semiconductor/Electrocatalyst Coupling toward Solar‐Driven Water Splitting

Abstract Hydrogen (H 2 ) has a significant potential to enable the global energy transition from the current fossil‐dominant system to a clean, sustainable, and low‐carbon energy system. While presently global H 2 production is predominated by fossil‐fuel feedstocks, for future widespread utilization it is of paramount importance to produce H 2 in a decarbonized manner. To this end, photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting has been proposed to be a highly desirable approach with minimal negative impact on the environment. Both semiconductor light‐absorbers and hydrogen/oxygen evolution reaction (HER/OER) catalysts are essential components of an efficient PEC cell. It is well documented that loading electrocatalysts on semiconductor photoelectrodes plays significant roles in accelerating the HER/OER kinetics, suppressing surface recombination, reducing overpotentials needed to accomplish HER/OER, and extending the operational lifetime of semiconductors. Herein, how electrocatalyst coupling influences the PEC performance of semiconductor photoelectrodes is outlined. The focus is then placed on the major strategies developed so far for semiconductor/electrocatalyst coupling, including a variety of dry processes and wet chemical approaches. This Review provides a comprehensive account of advanced methodologies adopted for semiconductor/electrocatalyst coupling and can serve as a guideline for the design of efficient and stable semiconductor photoelectrodes for use in water splitting.

Thalluri, Sitaramanjaneya Mouli↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unstructured global to coastal wave modeling for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model using WAVEWATCH III version 6.07

Wind-wave processes have generally been excluded from coupled Earth system models due to the high computational expense of spectral wave models, which resolve a frequency and direction spectrum of waves across space and time. Existing uniform-resolution wave modeling approaches used in Earth system models cannot appropriately represent wave climates from global to coastal ocean scales, largely because of tradeoffs between coastal resolution and computational costs. To resolve this challenge, we introduce a global unstructured mesh capability for the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model that is suitable for coupling within the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The new unstructured WW3 global wave modeling approach can provide the accuracy of higher global resolutions in coastal areas at the relative cost of lower uniform global resolutions. This new capability enables simulation of waves at physically relevant scales as needed for coastal applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗
NASA NTRS1993

GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS)

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) program seeks to improve the physical understanding of sub-grid scale cloud processes and their representation in parameterization schemes. By improving the description and understanding of key cloud system processes, GCSS aims to develop the necessary parameterizations in climate and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. GCSS will address these issues mainly through the development and use of cloud-resolving or cumulus ensemble models to generate realizations of a set of archetypal cloud systems. The focus of GCSS is on mesoscale cloud systems, including precipitating convectively-driven cloud systems like MCS's and boundary layer clouds, rather than individual clouds, and on their large-scale effects. Some of the key scientific issues confronting GCSS that particularly relate to research activities in the central U.S. are presented.

Moncrieff, Mitch↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Emissions: Is it an impossible goal?

Meeting growing energy demands while eliminating emissions, maintaining affordability, and ensuring energy justice is one of the most significant grand challenges of our time. Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. In the U.S., this equates to a net-zero electricity sector by 2035 and across all energy use sectors—including electricity, industry, and transportation—by 2050. The key question then becomes: Can we get there from here? Meeting these aggressive goals demands immediate action, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Currently, almost 85% of global energy demands are met by unabated fossil fuels. That means we have a lot of work to do, and we need to consider all of the non-emitting generation options available in each region—including fossil with carbon capture, renewables, and nuclear. And we need to reach our goal while establishing energy justice, which refers to the goal of achieving equity in social and economic participation in the energy system, while remediating past social, economic, and health burdens on communities that have been brought about by our energy system. This presentation will describe U.S. and global efforts focused on novel energy system solutions that strive to maximize use of all clean energy generation options to meet our energy demands, while ensuring sustainability, customer affordability, and a just energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.

Moreno, Francisco Luis↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 9: Beyond Single Marine Renewable Energy Devices: A System-wide Effects Approach

Global expansion of renewable energy, including marine renewable energy (MRE) technology development is necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change, facilitate a sustainable transition from carbon-based energy sources, and satisfy national energy security needs using locally produced electricity (European Commission 2022; IPCC 2023; IRENA 2020). As MRE engineering and research continue to focus on designing devices for deployment in nearshore and offshore waters around the world, researchers are also examining potential environmental effects on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes. To date, the focus has been on interactions between small numbers of MRE devices (1-6) and the environment, such as collisions between animals and turbine blades, the effects of underwater noise and electromagnetic field (EMF) emissions, changes in habitats and oceanographic processes, risk of entanglement of animals, and displacement of animals (Boehlert & Gill 2010; Copping & Hemery 2020) (see Chapter 3).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of a turbine farm model into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model for investigation and quantification of global climate impacts

Although there has been widespread deployment of wind farms in the United States, and plans to continue deployment into the future, the complete effects of wind farms on Earth systems are not well understood. The work performed here has incorporated wind farm models into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) capable of simulating the effects of extracting momentum from the atmospheric flow field using power generating wind farms. This new capability will allow scientists to quantify the impacts of wind farm induced changes on Earth systems by exploiting E3SM’s ability to couple atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical (BGC) models on a global scale and monitor precipitation levels, extreme weather events, soil moisture content and jet stream location over decades-long time periods. This tool will be used to inform decision making on wind farm citing and will contribute to the Lab’s ability to assess energy technology impacts on the environment and evaluate the trade-offs between energy infrastructure investments and their impacts on natural systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Nonhydrostatic and Hydrostatic Dynamical Cores at Seasonal Time Scales in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Abstract In global atmospheric modeling, the differences between nonhydrostatic (NH) and hydrostatic (H) dynamical cores are negligible in dry simulations when grid spacing is larger than 10 km. However, recent studies suggest that those differences can be significant at far coarser resolution when moisture is included. To better understand how NH and H differences manifest in global fields, we perform and analyze an ensemble of 28 and 13 km seasonal simulations with the NH and H dynamical cores in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model global atmosphere model, where the differences between H and NH configurations are minimized. A set of idealized rising bubble experiments is also conducted to further investigate the differences. Although NH and H differences are not significant in global statistics and zonal averages, significant differences in precipitation amount and patterns are observed in parts of the tropics. The most prominent differences emerge near India and the Western Pacific in the boreal summer, and the central‐southern Indian Ocean and Pacific in the boreal winter. Tropical differences influence surrounding regions through modification of the regional circulation and can propagate to the extratropics, leading to significant temperature and geopotential differences over the middle to high latitudes. While the dry bubble experiments show negligible deviation between H and NH dynamics until grid spacing is below 6.25 km, precipitation amount and vertical velocity are different in the moist case even at 25 km resolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗