Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “future 2050”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Linkages Between Ozone-depleting Substances, Tropospheric Oxidation and Aerosols

Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examined in past studies. We use a composition-climate model to investigate potential past and future impacts of changes in stratospheric ozone depleting substances (ODS) on tropospheric oxidants and sulfate aerosols. In most experiments, we find significant responses in tropospheric photolysis and oxidants, with small but significant effects on methane radiative forcing. The response of sulfate aerosols is sizeable when examining the effect of increasing future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We also find that without the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) through the Montreal Protocol, sulfate aerosols could have increased by 2050 by a comparable amount to the decreases predicted due to relatively stringent sulfur emissions controls. The individual historical radiative forcings of CFCs and N2O through their indirect effects on methane (−22.6mW/sq. m for CFCs and −6.7mW/sq. m for N2O) and sulfate aerosols (−3.0mW/sq. m for CFCs and +6.5mW/sq. m for N2O when considering the direct aerosol effect) discussed here are non-negligible when compared to known historical ODS forcing. Our results stress the importance of accounting for stratosphere-troposphere, gas-aerosol and composition-climate interactions when investigating the effects of changing emissions on atmospheric composition and climate.

troposphere↗
NASA NTRS2022

Specific Power and Efficiency Projections of Electric Machines and Circuit Protection Exploration for Aircraft Applications

The purpose of this paper is to generate specific power and efficiency projections through the year 2050 for electric machines for aircraft applications. A general literature review was performed to identify the types of electric machines that are commonly used and which types have the biggest potential for future aircraft applications due to their high specific power and efficiency. A database with historical data was built to include parameters such as weight [kg], rated power [kW], specific power [kW/kg], RPM, efficiency, year, motor cooling type, application type and motor type to allow for trend identification and accurate projections. Once the data was gathered, multiple curve fits on the historical data were generated and extrapolated to produce the projections for specific power according to conservative, nominal and aggressive projection scenarios. A different process was followed for the efficiency projections due to the scattered nature of the data. A state of the art (SoA) value for efficiency was identified through literature review and was used to create the conservative, nominal and aggressive projections for the time frames of 2030, 2040, and 2050. The efficiency and the specific power projections of EMs for 2050 are 0.989 and 50kW/kg respectively. This paper will also be examining circuit protection as it is an additional component of electric powertrains.

electric machines↗
NASA NTRS2016

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately μg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +C02 W m(sup -2) due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m(sup -2) due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides cobenefits to air quality and public health.

Air quality↗
NASA NTRS2012

Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion Impacts on Future Regional Air Quality in the Southeastern U.S.

Land in the southeastern U.S. is expected to change, e.g., given the potential demand to develop forest-to-fuel technologies or, conversely, cropification of current forests to increase food production. Possible future PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality for two land use/land cover change (LULCC) scenarios, reforestation and cropland conversion, are compared to a reference case scenario for the year 2050 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Changes in air quality driven by changes in climate, deposition and emissions relating to the LULCC are investigated. Reforestation in the Southeast tends to decrease the ambient O3mixing ratio while slightly increasing summertime PM(sub 2.5) in the Southeastern U.S. Results of a climate and deposition (CD) sensitivity simulation are provided for the two alternative LULCC scenarios to isolate the impact of changing climate and deposition on PM(sub 2.5) and O3 air quality. The sensitivity results indicate that deposition and emissions changes associated with reforestation impact O3 and PM(sub 2.5concentrations as much as, and in most cases more than, changes in meteorology. Conversion of forest to cropland in the Southeast, on the other hand, tends to increase O3and increase PM(sub 2.5) year-round. Cropland conversion leads to increased NOX emissions and increases in the 4th highest maximum daily 8-h O3(MDA8) of the year by up to 10 ppb despite the tendency for increased deposition and decreased temperature to reduce the MDA8 mixing ratio. The results of this study show that O3and aerosol concentrations are sensitive to reforestation and cropland conversion in the Southeast and these land use changes should be considered in air quality management plans. Further, they show the sensitivity of such calculations to land cover properties.

deposition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spin Formability of High-Strength Aluminum Alloys for Aerospace Applications

Near-net-shape fabrication of launch vehicle tanks and aircraft fuselages is critical for meeting the growing demand for unitized structures in the aerospace industry. Cryogenic tank manufacturing relies on multi-piece construction requiring hundreds of meters of welds that increase both structural weight and inspection time. Currently, fuselages have an immense part count requiring tens of thousands of rivets and long assembly time. NASA is pursuing spin and flow forming technology for manufacturing such structures with minimal assembly. These processes enable domes and stiffened barrels to be fabricated using single-piece construction, offering significant manufacturing rate benefits over conventional methods. However, Al alloys with sufficient formability, such as Al 6061, tend to have insufficient strength for aerospace structural applications. In contrast, alloys with higher strength, such as Al 2139 and Al 2050, exhibit insufficient formability during ambient temperature forming. This study investigates the spin formability of competitive 5xxx and 2xxx series Al alloys, identifies defects impeding formability, and sheds light on future processing routes for successful forming.

Aluminum↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spin Formability of High-Strength Aluminum Alloys for Aerospace Applications

Near-net-shape fabrication of launch vehicle tanks and aircraft fuselages is proposed to increase manufacturing rates of aerospace structures. Currently, cryogenic tank manufacturing relies on multi-piece construction requiring hundreds of meters of welds that increase both structural weight and inspection time. Metallic aircraft fuselages involve installation of tens of thousands of rivets resulting in long assembly times. NASA is pursuing spin and flow forming technologies for manufacturing such structures with minimal assembly. These processes enable domes and stiffened barrels to be fabricated using single-piece construction, offering significant manufacturing rate benefits over conventional methods. However, aluminum alloys with sufficient formability, such as Al 6061, tend to have insufficient strength for aerospace structural applications. In contrast, alloys with higher strength, such as Al 2139 and Al 2050, exhibit insufficient formability during ambient temperature forming. This study investigates the spin formability of competitive 5xxx- and 2xxx-series Al alloys, identifies defects impeding formability, and sheds light on future processing routes for successful forming.

Aluminum↗
NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Fiber Simulations and Analysis for Composites

As the U.S. government and the aviation industry strive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the Sustainable Manufacturing of Aircraft (SUMAC) project, supported by the Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aims to develop sustainably derived thermoplastic composites and manufacturing technologies for future aviation. A multidisciplinary team of experts drives this initiative through a collective effort. The team’s key focus areas are sustainably derived thermoplastic resins, natural fiber reinforcement, composite manufacturing, structural health monitoring, computational materials modeling, and systems analysis. This presentation will give an overview of the SUMAC project. Fiber-scale microscopy analysis characterized fiber cross sections finding that hemp and flax fibers are very deformable and non-circular (circularities of 0.2 were observed), and diameters range from submicron to 20 μm. Fiber shapes range from flattened, with aspect ratios Rlong/Rshort up to 5, to round, Rlong/Rshort =1. And Fiber core perimeters, which likely drives deformability, were calculated Pcore=7 μm. Explicit-fiber yarn simulations, parameterized from single-fiber measurements, resolved and identified slack as a cause for yarn strain-hardening tensile behavior. The bonded network model of PLA, PHA and PA11 resins captures tensile behavior, and can model an infused weave. Computational models of the weave unit cells matched the pattern (including plain, twill and triaxial braid), yarn ply (1to 2), and yarn twist from optical microscopy.

thermoplastic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Fiber Simulations and Analysis for Composites

As the U.S. government and the aviation industry strive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the Sustainable Manufacturing of Aircraft (SUMAC) project, supported by the Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aims to develop sustainably derived thermoplastic composites and manufacturing technologies for future aviation. A multidisciplinary team of experts drives this initiative through a collective effort. The team’s key focus areas are sustainably derived thermoplastic resins, natural fiber reinforcement, composite manufacturing, structural health monitoring, computational materials modeling, and systems analysis. This presentation will give an overview of the SUMAC project. Fiber-scale microscopy analysis characterized fiber cross sections finding that hemp and flax fibers are very deformable and non-circular (circularities of 0.2 were observed), and diameters range from submicron to 20 μm. Fiber shapes range from flattened, with aspect ratios Rlong/Rshort up to 5, to round, Rlong/Rshort =1. And Fiber core perimeters, which likely drives deformability, were calculated Pcore=7 μm. Explicit-fiber yarn simulations, parameterized from single-fiber measurements, resolved and identified slack as a cause for yarn strain-hardening tensile behavior. The bonded network model of PLA, PHA and PA11 resins captures tensile behavior, and can model an infused weave. Computational models of the weave unit cells matched the pattern (including plain, twill and triaxial braid), yarn ply (1to 2), and yarn twist from optical microscopy.

thermoplastic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Sustainable Aviation With Efficient Airspace Operations

In November 2021, the Federal Aviation Administration published the United States Aviation Climate Action Plan to accelerate innovation across the U.S. aviation ecosystem. In response, NASA has established the Sustainable Flight National Partnership to engage with industry, academia, and other agencies to accomplish net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. As part of the SFNP Mission, NASA is conducting a series of real world operational demonstrations in the current National Airspace System with a focus on delivering real world sustainability benefits. This paper presents the current work and future plan for the SFNP Ops Demo Series and describes the cloud based infrastructure used for virtual deployment of decision support tools to flight operators and Air Traffic Controllers to help improve operational efficiency of the National Airspace System. Validation results are shared along with the key sustainability benefits such as jet fuel savings and reduction in CO2 emissions. The operational efficiency metrics such as delay savings are also reported.

Sustainable Flight National Partnership↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Key Performance Projections based on Historical Trends and Chemistries

Recent improvements in state-of-the-art (SOA) batteries driven by the automotive sector have led to many electrified aircraft concepts choosing batteries as the preferred energy-storage method. Current SOA batteries are at the point of enabling certain hybrid and all-electric aircraft, particularly small, short range, lower speed aircraft. Higher performance batteries improve aircraft range and can enable larger, higher speed aircraft. In this work, we develop specific energy projections for future electrified aircraft. The projections are developed based on examining historical commercial SOA trends as well as practical limitations of future chemistries. Accurate projections of future specific energy values are important for estimating the timeline for commercial introduction of electrified aircraft. This work estimates nominal cell level specific energies for rechargeable batteries of 489 Wh/kg by 2030, 638 Wh/kg by 2040, and 764 Wh/kg by 2050. More conservative as well as more aggressive estimates are also provided.

Blake Tiede↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Astromaterial Curation and Research at NASA

Astromaterial sample return missions from other planetary bodies (e.g., the Moon, asteroids, the Sun) and astromaterial sample collection missions here on Earth (e.g., Antarctic Meteorites, Cosmic Dust) have been a vital part of NASA’s science vision since nearly its inception. Beginning with the Apollo missions to the Moon and extending to the recent successful sample collection by the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, these astromaterials collections have been an invaluable resource to scientists and educators around the world. Sample studies continue to provide fundamental insight into how our solar system and its constituent bodies formed and evolved over the past 4.5 billion years. As evidence of their broad impact, there are over 19,141 samples on loan to 433 Principal Investigators in 24 countries [1]. As we plan for exploration missions through 2050, sample return missions will continue to play a vital role in NASA’s science vision. Returned samples truly are the gift that keeps on giving. Having the samples accessible on Earth allows new generations of scientists and new generations of instrumentation to pursue ever evolving scientific questions. For example, the Apollo samples were collected ~50 years ago, yet our views of how the Earth-Moon system formed, the role of volatiles in the early inner solar system, and even the positions of the gas giants in the outer solar system have changed dramatically as a result of Apollo sample analyses conducted very recently. Vital to the long-term viability of any sample return mission is the careful curation of the samples. Curatorial efforts need to begin early in the project lifecycle, not with the return of the samples, but at mission conception. The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center is responsible for curating all of NASA’s current and future extraterrestrial samples. Looking at possible sample return missions over the next 35+ years [2], many samples would require curation efforts a step beyond current capabilities, e.g., cold or cryogenic curation, organically and biologically clean curation, curation of gases and ices, and curation of samples with extreme pressure, temperature, or redox requirements. During the lecture, we discuss the current curatorial efforts in JSC curation, as well as discoveries from the astromaterial research. [1] Zeigler, R. A. et al. (2017) Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop. [2] McCubbin F. M. et al. (2017) Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop.

astromaterial↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery

The effects of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer associated with the Mt. Pinatubo volcano and future volcanic eruptions on the recovery of the ozone layer is studied with an interactive two-dimensional photochemical model. The time varying chlorine loading and the stratospheric cooling due to increasing carbon dioxide have been taken into account. The computed ozone and temperature changes associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 agree well with observations. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been carried out, in which volcanoes having the characteristics of the Mount Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at 10-year intervals starting in the year 2010. Compared to a non-volcanic run using background aerosol loading, transient reductions of globally averaged column ozone of 2-3 percent were computed as a result of each of these eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the non-volcanic case in about 5 years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic column ozone losses of from 10 to 18 percent also recovered to the non-volcanic case within 5 years. These results suggest that the long-term recovery of ozone would not be strongly affected by infrequent volcanic eruptions with a sulfur loading approximating Mt. Pinatubo. Sensitivity studies in which the Arctic lower stratosphere was forced to be 4 K and 10 K colder resulted in transient ozone losses of which also recovered to the non-volcanic case in 5 years. A case in which a volcano five times Mt. Pinatubo was erupted in the year 2010 led to maximum springtime column ozone losses of 45 percent which took 10 years to recover to the background case. Finally, in order to simulate a situation in which frequent smaller volcanic eruptions result in increasing the background sulfate loading, a simulation was made in which the background aerosol was increased by 10 percent per year. This resulted in a delay of the recovery of column ozone to 1980 values of more than 10 years.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗