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NASA NTRS2004

An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.

Rajendran, K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Passive microwave observations of the Wedell Sea during austral winter and early spring

The results of multispectral passive microwave observations (6.7 to 90-GHz) are presented from the cruises of the FS Polarstern in the Weddell Sea from July to December 1986. This paper includes primarily the analysis of radiometric observations taken at ice station sites. Averaged emissivity spectra for first-year (FY) ice were relatively constant throughout the experiment and were not statistically different from FY ice signatures in the Arctic. Detailed ice characterization was carried out at each site to compare the microwave signatures of the ice with the physical properties. Absorption optical depths of FY ice were found to be sufficiently high that only the structure in the upper portions of the ice contributed significantly to interstation emissivity variations. The emissivities at 90-GHz, e(90), had the greatest variance. Both e(90) at vertical polarization and GR(sub e)(90, 18.7)(defined as (e(sub V)(90)-e(sub V)(18.7))/e(sub V)(90 + e(sub V)(18.7)) depended on the scattering optical depth which is a function of the snow grain diameter and layer thickness. The variance showed a latitude dependence and is probably due to an increase in the strength of snow metamorphism nearer the northern edge of the ice pack. The contribution of variations of near-surface brine volume to the emissivity was not significant over the range of values encountered at the station sites. Emissivity spectra are presented for a range of thin ice types. Unsupervised principal component analysis produced three significant eigenvectors and showed a separation among four different surface types: open water, thin ice, FY ice, and FY ice with a thick snow cover. A comparison with SMMR satellite data showed that average ice concentrations derived from the ship's ice watch log were consistent with the satellite concentrations. The surface based emissivities for FY ice were also compared with emissivities calculated from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) satellite radiances. Best agreement was found at 6.7 and 10-GHz, while at 18 and 37-GHz, SMMR emissivities were slightly lower than surface based results. For the three lower frequencies agreement was found within a confidence limit of 95% and for 37-GHz within about 90%.

Grenfell, T. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Atmosphere

The seasonal variability of Saturn's clouds and weather layer, currently displaying a variety of phenomena (convective storms, planetary waves, giant storms and lightning-induced events, etc.) is not yet fully understood. Variations of Saturn's radiance at 5.2 microns, a spectral region dominated by thermal emission in an atmospheric window containing weak gaseous absorption, contain a strong axisymmetric component as well as large discrete features at low and mid-latitudes that are several degrees colder than the planetary average and uncorrelated with features at shorter wavelengths that are dominated by reflected sunlight (Yanamandra-Fisher et al., 2001. Icarus, Vol. 150). The characterization of several fundamental atmospheric properties and processes, however, remains incomplete, namely: How do seasons affect (a) the global distribution of gaseous constituents and aerosols; and (b) temperatures and the stability against convection and large scale-atmospheric transport? Do 5-micron clouds have counterparts at other altitude levels? What changes occur during the emergence of Great White Storms? Data acquired at the NASA/IRTF and NAOJ/Subaru from 1995 - 2011; since 2004, high-resolution multi-spectral and high-spatial imaging data acquired by the NASA/ESA Cassini mission, represents half a Saturnian year or two seasons. With the addition of detailed multi-spectral data sets acquired by amateur observers, we study these dramatic phenomena to better understand the timeline of the evolution of these events. Seasonal (or temporal) trends in the observables such as albedo of the clouds, thermal fields of the atmosphere as function of altitude, development of clouds, hazes and global abundances of various hydrocarbons in the atmosphere can now be modeled. We will present results of our ongoing investigation for the search and characterization of periodicities over half a Saturnian year, based on a non-biased a priori approach and time series techniques (such as Principal Component Analysis, PCA and Lomb-Scargle periodograms, LSP).

Yanamandra-Fisher, Padma A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tools for Performing SBG hyperspectral Observing System Simulation Experiment

One of NASA’s Decadal Survey mission, Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), will include a hyperspectral remote sensing imager, which has a very high spatial resolution and a wide spectral coverage (from UV to Near IR). Unprecedented large data volumes will be generated by the SBG hyperspectral instrument. Before the launch of the new satellite, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) can be used to study different designs of the new satellite system. One of the key components in an OSSE study is a radiative transfer model (RTM) or forward model. In this presentation, we will describe a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) which is capable of simulating atmospheric (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra from far IR to visible and UV spectral regions (50 wavenumber to 30000 wavenumber) quickly and accurately. Multiple scattering from multiple layers of clouds/aerosols are included in the model. The PCRTM has a very good accuracy relative to reference line-by-line radiative transfer models (LBLRTM), and it saves 3-4 orders of magnitude computational time relative to LBLRTM or MODTRAN. The PCRTM model has been successfully used to analyze large volumes of data from hyperspectral sensors such as AIRS, CrIS, and IASI. It has also been used to perform OSSE studies for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. Another useful tool for the OSSE is surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) database. It is very crucial for the SBG OSSE to include realistic BRDF spectra. Currently, most of the surface reflectance spectra such as those in the ECOSIS and ECOSTRESS are measured at specific observation geometries. We have developed a hyperspectral bidirectional reflectance (HSBR) model which combines Ross-Li BRDF model with the existing reflectance spectral libraries using a principal component analysis. This HSBR model can provide realistic BRDF spectra under various observation conditions. It can also be used to generate realistic BRDF spectra using measurements from multi-band imagers or spectrometers such as MODIS or VIIRS.

Xu Liu↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cardiovascular group

As a starting point, the group defined a primary goal of maintaining in flight a level of systemic oxygen transport capacity comparable to each individual's preflight upright baseline. The goal of maintaining capacity at preflight levels would seem to be a reasonable objective for several different reasons, including the maintenance of good health in general and the preservation of sufficient cardiovascular reserve capacity to meet operational demands. It is also important not to introduce confounding variables in whatever other physiological studies are being performed. A change in the level of fitness is likely to be a significant confounding variable in the study of many organ systems. The principal component of the in-flight cardiovascular exercise program should be large-muscle activity such as treadmill exercise. It is desirable that at least one session per week be monitored to assure maintenance of proper functional levels and to provide guidance for any adjustments of the exercise prescription. Appropriate measurements include evaluation of the heart-rate/workload or the heart-rate/oxygen-uptake relationship. Respiratory gas analysis is helpful by providing better opportunities to document relative workload levels from analysis of the interrelationships among VO2, VCO2, and ventilation. The committee felt that there is no clear evidence that any particular in-flight exercise regimen is protective against orthostatic hypotension during the early readaptation phase. Some group members suggested that maintenance of the lower body muscle mass and muscle tone may be helpful. There is also evidence that late in-flight interventions to reexpand blood volume to preflight levels are helpful in preventing or minimizing postflight orthostatic hypotension.

Blomqvist, Gunnar↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Preliminary Evaluation of Thematic Mapper Image Data Quality

Thematic Mapper (TM) data from Mississippi County, Arkansas, and Webster County, Iowa, were examined for the purpose of evaluating the image data quality of the TM which was launched on board the LANDSAT-4 spacecraft. Preliminary clustering and principal component analysis indicates that the middle infrared and thermal infrared data of TM appear to add significant information over that of the near IR and visible bands of the multispectral scanner data. Moreover, the higher spatial resolution of TM appears to provide better definition of the edges and the within variability of agricultural fields. The geometric performance of TM data, without ground control correction, was found to exceed expectations. The modulation transfer function for the 1.65 m band was found to agree with prelaunch specifications when the effects of the GSFC cubic convolution and the atmosphere were removed. The band to band registration for the bands within the noncooled focal plane was found to be better than specified. However, the middle infrared and thermal infrared, which are on a separate cooled focal plane were found to be misregistered and were significantly worse than prelaunch specifications.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux

The paper considers principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, a technique for extracting the salient features from a mass of data. The method applies particularly to the analysis of nonstationary ensembles, and its computations require the evaluation of eigenvalues of matrices. The Eispack matrix eigen system routines were used to analyze full-disk proportional-counter data from the X-ray event analyzer which was part of the Skylab experiment. Empirical orthogonal functions were derived for events in the soft X-ray spectrum between 2.5 and 20 A during different time periods, indicating that about 90% of the cumulative power of each analyzed flare is contained in the largest eigenvector. The first two largest eigenvectors are sufficient for an empirical curve fit through the raw data and a characterization of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, and power spectra of two largest eigenvectors reveal a reported periodicity of about 5 min.

Teuber, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Optimal band selection for dimensionality reduction of hyperspectral imagery

Hyperspectral images have many bands requiring significant computational power for machine interpretation. During image pre-processing, regions of interest that warrant full examination need to be identified quickly. One technique for speeding up the processing is to use only a small subset of bands to determine the 'interesting' regions. The problem addressed here is how to determine the fewest bands required to achieve a specified performance goal for pixel classification. The band selection problem has been addressed previously Chen et al., Ghassemian et al., Henderson et al., and Kim et al.. Some popular techniques for reducing the dimensionality of a feature space, such as principal components analysis, reduce dimensionality by computing new features that are linear combinations of the original features. However, such approaches require measuring and processing all the available bands before the dimensionality is reduced. Our approach, adapted from previous multidimensional signal analysis research, is simpler and achieves dimensionality reduction by selecting bands. Feature selection algorithms are used to determine which combination of bands has the lowest probability of pixel misclassification. Two elements required by this approach are a choice of objective function and a choice of search strategy.

Stearns, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
NASA NTRS1985

Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern winter as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation

One-point correlation statistics and extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are used to show the existence of a principal mode of oscillation in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of tropical convection. The data analyzed were derived from NOAA Outgoing Longwave Radiation data covering seven 6 mo periods from 1974-83. The data is filtered to remove fluctuations on time scales under 5 days and by subtracting a least-squares parabola to eliminate seasonal means. The previously-known 40-50 day oscillation is found to be the most prevalent component of the ISV of tropical convection. An E-W dipole forms and propagates over the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Various anomalies generated in association with the dipole and dependent on its exact location when stalled are discussed.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effect of Head-Down Bed Rest and Artificial Gravity Countermeasure on Cardiac Autonomic and Advanced Electrocardiographic Function

To study the effects of 21 days of head-down bed rest (HDBR), with versus without an artificial gravity (AG) countermeasure, on cardiac autonomic and advanced electrocardiographic function. Fourteen healthy men participated in the study: seven experienced 21 days of HDBR alone ("HDBR controls") and seven the same degree and duration of HDBR but with approximately 1hr daily short-arm centrifugation as an AG countermeasure ("AG-treated"). Five minute supine high-fidelity 12-lead ECGs were obtained in all subjects: 1) 4 days before HDBR; 2) on the last day of HDBR; and 3) 7 days after HDBR. Besides conventional 12-lead ECG intervals and voltages, all of the following advanced ECG parameters were studied: 1) both stochastic (time and frequency domain) and deterministic heart rate variability (HRV); 2) beat-to-beat QT interval variability (QTV); 3) T-wave morphology, including signal-averaged T-wave residua (TWR) and principal component analysis ratios; 4) other SAECG-related parameters including high frequency QRS ECG and late potentials; and 5) several advanced ECG estimates of left ventricular (LV) mass. The most important results by repeated measures ANOVA were that: 1) Heart rates, Bazett-corrected QTc intervals, TWR, LF/HF power and the alpha 1 of HRV were significantly increased in both groups (i.e., by HDBR), but with no relevant HDBR*group differences; 2) All purely "vagally-mediated" parameters of HRV (e.g., RMSSD, HF power, Poincare SD1, etc.), PR intervals, and also several parameters of LV mass (Cornell and Sokolow-Lyon voltages, spatial ventricular activation times, ventricular gradients) were all significantly decreased in both groups (i.e., by HDBR), but again with no relevant HDBR*group differences); 3) All "generalized" or "vagal plus sympathetic" parameters of stochastic HRV (i.e., SDNN, total power, LF power) were significantly more decreased in the AG-treated group than in the HDBR-only group (i.e., here there was a relevant HDBR*group difference); and 4) QTV index was also significantly more changed (increased) in the AG-treated group than in the HDBR-only group, although this was clearly due to a greater decrease in generalized HRV and not to a greater increase in QTV proper because there was no relevant HDBR*group effect for either the SDNN or the RMSSD of QTV. Brief daily AG treatment by short-arm centrifuge during each of 21 days of HDBR does not appear to protect against HDBR-related losses of cardiac autonomic function or of LV mass as estimated by ECG.

Schlegel, T. T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

This annual report summarizes the work completed during the third year of technical effort on the referenced contract. Principal developments continue to focus on the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) which has been under development for three years. Essentially all of the linear capabilities within the PFEM code are in place. Major progress in the application or verifications phase was achieved. An EXPERT module architecture was designed and partially implemented. EXPERT is a user interface module which incorporates an expert system shell for the implementation of a rule-based interface utilizing the experience and expertise of the user community. The Fast Probability Integration (FPI) Algorithm continues to demonstrate outstanding performance characteristics for the integration of probability density functions for multiple variables. Additionally, an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was developed and demonstrated for a variety of numerical strategies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Microbial astronauts: assembling microbial communities for advanced life support systems

Extension of human habitation into space requires that humans carry with them many of the microorganisms with which they coexist on Earth. The ubiquity of microorganisms in close association with all living things and biogeochemical processes on Earth predicates that they must also play a critical role in maintaining the viability of human life in space. Even though bacterial populations exist as locally adapted ecotypes, the abundance of individuals in microbial species is so large that dispersal is unlikely to be limited by geographical barriers on Earth (i.e., for most environments "everything is everywhere" given enough time). This will not be true for microbial communities in space where local species richness will be relatively low because of sterilization protocols prior to launch and physical barriers between Earth and spacecraft after launch. Although community diversity will be sufficient to sustain ecosystem function at the onset, richness and evenness may decline over time such that biological systems either lose functional potential (e.g., bioreactors may fail to reduce BOD or nitrogen load) or become susceptible to invasion by human-associated microorganisms (pathogens) over time. Research at the John F. Kennedy Space Center has evaluated fundamental properties of microbial diversity and community assembly in prototype bioregenerative systems for NASA Advanced Life Support. Successional trends related to increased niche specialization, including an apparent increase in the proportion of nonculturable types of organisms, have been consistently observed. In addition, the stability of the microbial communities, as defined by their resistance to invasion by human-associated microorganisms, has been correlated to their diversity. Overall, these results reflect the significant challenges ahead for the assembly of stable, functional communities using gnotobiotic approaches, and the need to better define the basic biological principles that define ecosystem processes in the space environment. Copyright 2004 Springer-Verlag.

Review↗
NASA NTRS1974

Periodic variation of atmospheric circulation at 14-16 days

By means of spectrum analysis of select components of the tropospheric and lower stratospheric energy cycle in the Northern Hemisphere (20 N to the pole), we are able to demonstrate the existence of a 14-16 day cycle in the atmosphere. The principal energy transfer of this cycle is the conversion from zonal available to eddy available potential energy in the troposphere. This is accompanied by an energy exchange from eddy available potential to eddy kinetic energy and thence by means of the pressure-work effect at the stratospheric boundary to the eddy kinetic energy in the stratosphere. The possible physical forcing functions of this cycle are discussed.

Miller, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Short-term time variability of Cygnus X-1. II

A complete theory for shot-noise analysis is presented. The theory takes into account the effects of counting statistics, time resolution, and finite observing times on the autocorrelation function and on the moments of data assumed to consist of shot noise plus a steady component. When applied to X-ray observations of Cyg X-1 in the high and low states, the results provide evidence that both the typical correlation time (about 0.5 s) and the fraction of flux in shots (about 30%) are constant, independent of the state. The rate of occurrence of the shots may also be constant at approximately one shot per second, a possibility which, if verified, would imply that the principal difference in time variability in the two states is the amplitude of the shots. We also suggest that the occasionally observed large flares may possibly be just the rare superposition of several shots.

Sutherland, P. G.↗