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At least 55 records · Page 3

Forward modeling of Doppler velocity interferometer system for improved shockwave measurements

We report that when near-instantaneous shocks are recorded by using a Doppler velocity interferometer velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR), they typically exceed the detector’s ability to react and “skipped fringes” result, where its visibility briefly reduces. Traditionally, replacing skipped fringes required guesswork in analysis, which increased arrival time errors. Second, the use of long but velocity-sensitive interferometer delays with fast detectors which can resolve the delay has traditionally been avoided because of the fear of confusing the arrival time signal. However, shorter delays produce smaller fringe phase shifts per velocity and, thus, can decrease velocity precision. We realize that while some loss of fringe information occurs at shock events, this is often just a partial loss and the residual fringe information can still hold valuable information. We describe a forward model (FM) of the interferometer action and detector blurring that assists with VISAR fringe analysis at skipping events: (1) more precise shock arrival times, (2) arrival time precision not limited by long delays, and (3) improved ghost subtraction, which improves accuracy over a broad time region. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of a FM on National Ignition Facility and Laboratory for Laser Energetics Omega shots and discuss data process methods to increase the high time resolution of VISAR systems despite their limitations and complexities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Slitless spectrophotometry with forward modelling: Principles and application to measuring atmospheric transmission

Context.In the next decade, many optical surveys will aim to answer the question of the nature of dark energy by measuring its equation-of-state parameter at the per mill level. This requires trusting the photometric calibration of the survey with a precision never reached so far on many sources of systematic uncertainties. The measurement of the on-site atmospheric transmission for each exposure, or for each season or for the full survey on average, can help reach the per mill precision for the magnitudes. Aims.This work aims at proving the ability to use slitless spectroscopy for standard-star spectrophotometry and its use to monitor on-site atmospheric transmission as needed, for example, by theVera C. RubinObservatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time supernova cosmology program. We fully deal with the case of a disperser in the filter wheel, which is the configuration chosen in theRubinAuxiliary Telescope. Methods.The theoretical basis of slitless spectrophotometry is at the heart of our forward-model approach to extract spectroscopic information from slitless data. We developed a publicly available software calledSpectractor, which implements each ingredient of the model and finally performs a fit of a spectrogram model directly on image data to obtain the spectrum. Results.We show through simulations that our model allows us to understand the structure of spectrophotometric exposures. We also demonstrate its use on real data by solving specific issues and illustrating that our procedure allows the improvement of the model describing the data. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be used to directly extract atmospheric transmission parameters from the data and thus provide the base for on-site atmosphere monitoring. We show the efficiency of the procedure in simulations and test it on the limited available data set.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Radiobrightness Forward Modelling vs Observations from Local to Satellite Scales during the 2003 NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment

A key issue for passive microwave Earth sensing applications is subpixel heterogeneity and its role in the connection between local-scale conditions vs. what is observed at the satellite footprint scale. The recently-completed NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and from ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in the spring of 2003 in Colorado, USA. Measurements of radiobrightness were made with nested footprint sizes ranging from scales of meters at a single site to 25 x 25 km across the entire CLPX-1 domain. Corresponding measurements of snowpack conditions (snow depth and temperature. density, and grain size profiles) as well as weather analyses were used to provide input data for forward radiative transfer model investigations. This paper will focus on the ability of forward modelling, based primarily on Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory, combined with snowpack measurements and weather data to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed at multiple scales during both the third and fourth Intensive Observing Periods (February and March, 2003). The conditions include both wet and dry periods as well as a variety of forest cover conditions, providing a valuable test of model performance. These analyses will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithm and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Kim, Edward J.↗

What Polarimetric Weather Radars Offer to Cloud Modelers: Forward Radar Operators and Microphysical/Thermodynamic Retrievals

The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies in microphysical parameterization schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is a primary cause of forecast uncertainties. Due to its ability to distinguish between hydrometeors with different microphysical habits and to identify “polarimetric fingerprints” of various microphysical processes, polarimetric radar emerges as a primary source of needed information. There are two approaches to leverage this information for NWP models: (1) radar microphysical and thermodynamic retrievals and (2) forward radar operators for converting the model outputs into the fields of polarimetric radar variables. In this paper, we will provide an overview of both. Polarimetric measurements can be combined with cloud models of varying complexity, including ones with bulk and spectral bin microphysics, as well as simplified Lagrangian models focused on a particular microphysical process. Combining polarimetric measurements with cloud modeling can reveal the impact of important microphysical agents such as aerosols or supercooled cloud water invisible to the radar on cloud and precipitation formation. Some pertinent results obtained from models with spectral bin microphysics, including the Hebrew University cloud model (HUCM) and 1D models of melting hail and snow coupled with the NSSL forward radar operator, are illustrated in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forward Modeling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in GEOS-5: Uncertainties Related to Surface Fluxes and Sub-Grid Transport

Forward GEOS-5 AGCM simulations of CO2, with transport constrained by analyzed meteorology for 2009-2010, are examined. The CO2 distributions are evaluated using AIRS upper tropospheric CO2 and ACOS-GOSAT total column CO2 observations. Different combinations of surface C02 fluxes are used to generate ensembles of runs that span some uncertainty in surface emissions and uptake. The fluxes are specified in GEOS-5 from different inventories (fossil and biofuel), different data-constrained estimates of land biological emissions, and different data-constrained ocean-biology estimates. One set of fluxes is based on the established "Transcom" database and others are constructed using contemporary satellite observations to constrain land and ocean process models. Likewise, different approximations to sub-grid transport are employed, to construct an ensemble of CO2 distributions related to transport variability. This work is part of NASA's "Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project,"

Pawson, Steven↗

Deep Learning-Assisted Real-Time Forward Modeling of Electromagnetic Logging in Complex Formations

Higher dimensional (i.e., 2-D and 3-D) modeling is indispensable to correctly evaluate the responses of electromagnetic logging tools in complex formation environments. However, limited by the high computational cost of rigorous modeling such as finite difference method and the finite element method, the real-time applications in the well logging industry primarily rely on the 1-D forward solver, which would result in erroneous formation evaluation for complex scenarios. As a result, aiming at realizing fast modeling for electromagnetic logging tools in complex formations, this paper proposes a general framework assisted by deep neural networks (DNNs). The framework consists of three modules: earth model classification, parameter extraction, and surrogate construction. Separate DNNs are trained and tested for different modules. The accuracy and efficiency of the DNN assisted fast modeling are validated by several experiments. Here, this study finds that the fast modeling assisted by DNNs is able to calculate the tool responses and reconstruct the subsurface formations in real-time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Metallurgical Analysis and Forward Modeling of Weld Distortion in SMR Containment Vessels

This work aimed to apply Sandia’s expertise in metallurgy and modeling to enable the use of hybrid laser arc welding for building nuclear reactor containment structures, via a collaboration with Holtec International. Experimental observations were coupled with finite element analysis to resolve microstructure development, mechanical properties, distortion, and residual stress in welds relevant to the production of the Holtec SMR-160. High residual stresses were observed in welds that were not subjected to preheat. Meanwhile, the microstructure of the welds generally exhibited a narrow heat affected zone relative to conventional arc welds. FEA appeared to be effective in simulating the thermal/mechanical conditions that occur during hybrid laser arc welding of simplified and instrumented test welds. Subsequently, FEA was used to perform sensitivity analyses for various weld geometries that would be prohibitively costly to assess with physical experiments. Insights from the study were used to inform Holtec’s welding process, and successful production welds were performed in 2025.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Forward Modeling Populations of Flares from Tidal Disruptions of Stars by Supermassive Black Holes

Detections of the tidal disruption flares (TDFs) of stars by supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are rapidly accumulating as optical surveys improve. These detections may provide constraints on SMBH demographics, stellar dynamics, and stellar evolution in galaxies. To maximize this scientific impact, we require a better understanding of how astrophysical parameters interact with survey selection effects in setting the properties of detected flares. In this study, we develop a framework for modeling the distributions of optical TDF detections in surveys across attributes of the host galaxies and the flares themselves. This model folds in effects of the stellar disruption rate in each galaxy, the flare luminosity and temperature distributions, the effects of obscuration and reddening by dust in the host galaxy, and survey selection criteria. We directly apply this model to the sample of TDFs detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility, and find that the overall flare detection rate is in line with simple theoretical expectation. The model can also reproduce the distribution of total stellar mass and redshift of the host galaxies, but fails to match all details of the detected flares, such as their luminosity and temperature distributions. We also find that dust obscuration likely plays an important role in suppressing the TDF detection rate in star-forming galaxies. While we do not find that the unusual preference of TDFs to have hosts in post-starburst galaxies in the "green valley" can be entirely explained by selection effects, our model can help to quantify the true rate enhancement in those galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗