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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest

Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimators For Derivative-Free Optimization Under Uncertainty

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications; however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations; i.e., its overall computational cost is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location. An OUU workflow has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. Here, in this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is able to allocate resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our approach with respect to its Monte Carlo single fidelity counterpart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributive Nd-to-Yb Energy Transfer within Pure [YbNdYb] Heterometallic Molecules

Facile access to site-selective hetero-lanthanide molecules will open new avenues in the search of novel photophysical phenomena based on Ln-to-Ln' energy transfer (ET). This challenge demands strategies to segregate efficiently different Ln metal ions among different positions in a molecule. We report here the one-step synthesis and structure of a pure [YbNdYb] (1) coordination complex featuring short Yb···Nd distances, ideal to investigate a potential distributive (i.e., from one donor to two acceptors) intramolecular ET from one Nd 3+ ion to two Yb 3+ centers within a well-characterized molecule. The difference in ionic radius is the mechanism allowing to allocate selectively both types of metal ion within the molecular structure, exploited with the simultaneous use of two β-diketone-type ligands. To assist the photophysical investigation of this heterometallic species, the analogues [YbLaYb] (2) and [LuNdLu] (3) have also been prepared. Sensitization of Yb 3+ and Nd 3+ in the last two complexes, respectively, was observed, with remarkably long decay times, facilitating the determination of the Nd-to-Yb ET within the [YbNdYb] composite. This ET was demonstrated by comparing the emission of iso-absorbant solutions of 1, 2, and 3 and through lifetime determinations in solution and solid state. The comparatively high efficiency of this process corroborates the facilitating effect of having two acceptors for the nonradiative decay of Nd 3+ created within the [YbNdYb] molecule.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nanometer-Scale Correlations in Aqueous Salt Solutions

The intermediate-range (1–4 nm) correlation of cations, an- ions, and water in aqueous alkaline earth salt solutions is measured using synchrotron X-ray diffraction. We differentiate from the entire solution structure factor, S(Q), a separate region at low Q (<1 °A-1) containing local diffraction maxima (pre-peaks) that indicate nanometer-scale oscillatory behavior. These features are quantitatively reproduced with classical molecular dynamics simulations. At high concentrations, the pre-peaks emerge from correlations arising from existence of small quasi close-packed lattice- like structures comprised of cation hydration spheres. We also analyze the concentration dependence of the pre-peak and discuss the overall results in light of the rich literature dealing with intermediate-range correlations underlying universal phenomena in concentrated electrolytes. The authors were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences and Biosciences. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. Computing resources were generously allocated by PNNL's Institutional Computing program. DOE Contract No. DEAC02- 06CH11357 supports operation of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory.

Chemical physics, nucleation, Madelung potential↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine phytoplankton resilience may moderate oligotrophic ecosystem responses and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export. However, phytoplankton communities are complex adaptive systems with immense diversity that could render them at least partially resilient to global changes. This can be illustrated by the biology of the Prochlorococcus “collective.” Adaptations to counter stress, use of alternative nutrient sources, and frugal resource allocation can allow Prochlorococcus to buffer climate-driven changes in nutrient availability. In contrast, cell physiology is more sensitive to temperature changes. We argue that biogeochemical models need to consider the adaptive potential of diverse phytoplankton communities. However, a full understanding of phytoplankton resilience to future ocean changes is hampered by a lack of global biogeographic observations to test theories. We propose that the resilience may in fact be greater in oligotrophic waters than currently considered with implications for future predictions of phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

S&TR September 2025: Computing Grand Challenge Turns 20

Livermore’s Computing Grand Challenge Program enters its 20th year with more unclassified high-performance computing (HPC) power than ever before. This unique, peer-reviewed competition awards HPC allocations on top supercomputers to multidisciplinary teams with high-impact projects. The Grand Challenge encourages researchers to innovate, pushes scientific discovery to new heights, improves the Laboratory’s HPC capabilities, and extends HPC accessibility to collaborators. Awardees must adapt to successive generations of HPC hardware and learn to run simulations at scale. The feature article spotlights three Grand Challenge teams whose research broke new ground in key scientific pursuits—the essence of dark matter, explosion-generated seismic waves, and protein interactions linked to cancer—while underscoring the importance of academic partnerships and considering the program’s future.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Construction of Artificial Lattice Structures with Designer Electronic States

Manipulating matter with a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) enables the creation of atomically defined artificial structures that host designer quantum states. However, the time-consuming nature of the manipulation process, coupled with the sensitivity of the STM tip, constrains the exploration of diverse configurations and limits the size of the designed features. In this study, we present a reinforcement learning (RL)-based framework for creating artificial structures by spatially manipulating carbon monoxide (CO) molecules on a copper substrate by using the STM tip. The automated workflow combines molecule detection and manipulation, employing deep-learning-based object detection to locate CO molecules and linear assignment algorithms to allocate these molecules to designated target sites. We initially perform molecule maneuvering based on randomized parameter sampling for sample bias, tunneling current set point, and manipulation speed. This data set is then structured into an action trajectory used to train an RL agent. The model is subsequently deployed on the STM for real-time fine-tuning of the manipulation parameters during structure construction. Our approach incorporates path-planning protocols coupled with active drift compensation to enable atomically precise fabrication of structures with significantly reduced human input while realizing larger-scale artificial lattices with the desired electronic properties. Furthermore, using our approach, we demonstrate the automated construction of an extended artificial graphene lattice and confirm the existence of a characteristic Dirac point in its electronic structure. Further challenges regarding the RL-based structural assembly scalability are discussed.

Algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2021

mosartwmpy: A Python implementation of the MOSART-WM coupled hydrologic routing and water management model

mosartwmpy is a Python implementation of the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport with Water Management (MOSART-WM). This new version retains the functionality of the legacy model (written in FORTRAN) while providing new features to enhance user experience and extensibility. MOSART is a large-scale river-routing model used to study riverine dynamics of water, energy, and biogeochemistry cycles across local, regional, and global scales (Li et al., 2013). The WM component introduced by Voisin et al. (2013) represents river regulation through reservoir storage and release operations, diversions from reservoir releases, and allocation to sectoral water demands. Each reservoir release is independently calibrated using long-term mean monthly inflow into the reservoir, long-term mean monthly demand associated with this reservoir, and reservoir goals (flood control, irrigation, recreation, etc.). Generic monthly pre-release rules and storage targets are set up for individual reservoirs; however, those releases are updated annually for inter-annual variability (dry or wet year) and daily for environmental constraints such as flow minimum release and minimum/maximum storage levels. The WM model allows an evaluation of the impact of water management over multiple river basins at once (global, continental scales) and with consistent representation of human operations over the full domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CGSim: A Simulation Framework for Large Scale Distributed Computing Environment

Large-scale distributed computing infrastructures such as the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) require comprehensive simulation tools for evaluating performance, testing new algorithms, and optimizing resource allocation strategies. However, existing simulators suffer from limited scalability, hardwired algorithms, lack of real-time monitoring, and inability to generate datasets suitable for modern machine learning approaches. We present CGSim, a simulation framework for large-scale distributed computing environments that addresses these limitations. Built upon the validated SimGrid simulation framework, CGSim provides high-level abstractions for modeling heterogeneous grid environments while maintaining accuracy and scalability. Key features include a modular plugin mechanism for testing custom workflow scheduling and data movement policies, interactive real-time visualization dashboards, and automatic generation of event-level datasets suitable for AI-assisted performance modeling. We demonstrate CGSim’s capabilities through a comprehensive evaluation using production ATLAS PanDA workloads, showing significant calibration accuracy improvements across WLCG computing sites. Scalability experiments show near-linear scaling for multi-site simulations, with distributed workloads achieving 6 × better performance compared to single-site execution. The framework enables researchers to simulate WLCG-scale infrastructures with hundreds of sites and thousands of concurrent jobs within practical time budget constraints on commodity hardware.

Vatsavai, Sairam Sri [Brookhaven National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: Preprint

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Grid Strength Analysis Tool (GSAT) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the GSAT software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (ASSET) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the ASSET software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Characterization of OpenMP Offloading Memory Operations and Unified Shared Memory Support

The OpenMP specification recently introduced support for unified shared memory, allowing implementation to leverage underlying system software to provide a simpler GPU offloading model where explicit mapping of variables is optional. Support for this feature is becoming more available in different OpenMP implementations on several hardware platforms. A deeper understanding of the different implementation’s execution profile and performance is crucial for applications as they consider the performance portability implications of adopting a unified memory offloading programming style. This work introduces a benchmark tool to characterize unified memory support in several OepnMP compilers and runtimes, with emphasis on identifying discrepancies between different OpenMP implementations as to how they various memory allocation strategies interact with unified shared memory. The benchmark tool is used to characterize OpenMP compilers on three leading High Performance Computing platforms supporting different CPU and device architectures. The benchmark tool is used to assess the impact of enabling unified shared memory on the performance of memory-bound code, highlighting implementation differences that should be accounted for when applications consider performance portability across platforms and compilers.

Elwasif, Wael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Allocation Mechanisms in Rationed Markets

Economic theory has come to play an important role in power system operations through the design of wholesale markets that are central to their operation. Furthermore, transactive energy places economic theory as a cornerstone in its operational concept as it seeks to integrate the technical needs of the power system with the preferences of its participants. Traditionally the mechanism employed is the continuous double-auction but de-pending on the circumstances the power system find itself in, this mechanism may or may not be the most appropriate, i.e. a one-size fits all market institution cannot be recommended without regard for the features of the underlying trading environment. This paper seeks to explain the economic rationale that guides the choice of a market institution and takes recourse to a theoretical demonstration in the context of a rationed power system scenario where demand exceeds generation (due to any number of events such as outages, microgrid operation, etc) and electrical energy must be rationed to better understand which types of mechanisms are most appropriate.

transactive energy, power system economics, econom↗
DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model: Recently Added Features and Future Plans

To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various system options for the management of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW).With these tools, IWMS architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling features within various IWMS architectures. NGSAM imports data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s unified database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, and at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that each simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the U.S. Recent major enhancements implemented into NGSAM in the period since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort car acquisition and buffer car acquisition • The addition of heavy haul truck (HHT) and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes • Updates to the logic that checks the transportation cask thermal limit maps prior to package transport • An allocation method that predicts when reactor sites would pack assemblies from their spent fuel pools for dry storage, and prioritizes shipments directly from the pools of those reactor sites in the preceding periods (before the predicted loadings to dry storage), thus reducing the number of casks loaded into dry storage at reactor sites • The addition of “reactor site family” operational limits to restrict the number of loads of SNF taken from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site each year • Added support for multiple canister loading map options and packages with multiple compatible transportation overpacks • Updates to the handling of non-commercial SNF, including a new database that contains data to support the updates • Updates to allow analysis of hypothetical scenarios which include repackaging at reactor sites, e.g., for possible comparative analysis with other scenarios • Implementation of additional output reports, or modification of existing ones • The ability to generate and implement user edits via the NGSAM website • The ability to model loading SNF from pool storage at an interim storage facility (ISF) into dry storage at the ISF • The ability to model consolidating SNF from different existing storage containers at a DOE site into the same DOE standard canister • The ability to model transferring SNF casks from one transportation mode to another, e.g., from HHT to rail, referred to as transloading. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and users’ experience with the model. Preliminary NGSAM requirements for modeling advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning were considered, and this paper describes them at a high level. Other nuclear fuel cycle system analysis tools developed under sponsorship of DOE-NE, like the VISION code developed at Idaho National Laboratory, might be better suited for initial high-level analysis of those technologies and advanced fuel cycles. As technologies are developed and system concepts evolve, NGSAM could provide value by providing more detailed modeling of transport, storage, and disposal of spent fuel and wastes from advanced reactors and advanced fuel cycles at the fuel element and waste container level.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Management of Persistent Data Structures in High-Performance Analytics

Large-scale data analytics workflows ingest massive input data into various data structures, including graphs and key-value datastores. These data structures undergo multiple transformations and computations and are typically reused in incremental and iterative analytics workflows. Persisting in-memory views of these data structures enables reusing them beyond the scope of a single program run while avoiding repetitive raw data ingestion overheads. Memory-mapped I/O enables persisting in-memory data structures without data serialization and deserialization overheads. However, memory-mapped I/O lacks the key feature of persisting consistent snapshots of these data structures for incremental ingestion and processing. The obstacles to efficient virtual memory snapshots using memory-mapped I/O include background writebacks outside the application’s control, and the significantly high storage footprint of such snapshots. To address these limitations, we present Privateer, a memory and storage management tool that enables storage-efficient virtual memory snapshotting while also optimizing snapshot I/O performance. Here, we integrated Privateer into Metall, a state-of-the-art persistent memory allocator for C++, and the Lightning Memory-Mapped Database (LMDB), a widely-used key-value datastore in data analytics and machine learning. Privateer optimized application performance by 1.22× when storing data structure snapshots to node-local storage, and up to 16.7× when storing snapshots to a parallel file system. Privateer also optimizes storage efficiency of incremental data structure snapshots by up to 11× using data deduplication and compression.

Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Service-Based, Segmented, 5G Network-Based Architecture for Securing Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

As the number of connected devices in the energy grid increase exponentially, so too are the cybersecurity risks. With the development of modern communications standards such as 5G and beyond the extent to which devices will continue to connect will continue to increase exponentially along with the inherent risks. However, 5G also includes features to help address cybersecurity concerns and therefore helping to mitigate many of these risks. This paper proposes a new service-based network architecture implementing network-slicing capabilities for connected systems and devices to improve performance, availability, security, and reliability of the grid devices and services. This paper considers the quality of service requirements and criticality of services needed for securely monitoring, operating, and securing Distributed Energy Resource (DER) devices. From developed use cases, network slicing is implemented based on these requirements and resource allocations. This work then highlights examples of how slicing can help prevent standard existing attack methods such as a denial-of-service or similar attack which limits resource availability and network bandwidth to the service and thus limiting its ability to affect other services by misbehaving. The designed network architecture use case will be further tested on a local virtualized testbed to verify secure operation and availability of services. Using hardware-in-the-loop devices and systems on this local testbed, this fully segmented, secure network may be realized and evaluated. Finally, this paper presents the results of this testing.

5G↗