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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake Using 3DFinite Element Method. Sensitivity Analysis of Slip Rate Function to Model Parameters of Crustal Weak-Zone

The main objective of this study was the dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The purpose of the numerical modeling was two folded. First, using models of rupture dynamics, derive kinematic rupture characteristics, including spatial and temporal variations of the slip rate time history and rupture speed, in the long-period ground motion generation area (LMGA), strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) and background fault area for a thrust shallow rupture. Second, investigate the sensitivity of source time function characteristics in the LMGA and SMGA areas to model parameterization of low-velocity weak zone, such as thickness and shear wave velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Internal Structure of the Central Garlock Fault Zone From Ridgecrest Aftershocks Recorded by Dense Linear Seismic Arrays

Abstract We provide high‐resolution seismic imaging of the central Garlock fault using data recorded by two dense seismic arrays that cross the Ridgecrest rupture zone (B4) and the Garlock fault (A5). Analyses of fault zone head waves and P ‐wave delay times at array A5 show that the Garlock fault is a sharp bimaterial interface with P waves traveling ∼5% faster in the northern crustal block. The across‐fault velocity contrast agrees with regional tomography models and generates clear P ‐wave reflections in waveforms recorded by array B4. Kirchhoff migration of the reflected waves indicates a near‐vertical fault between 2 and 6 km depth. The P ‐wave delay times imply a ∼300‐m‐wide transition zone near the Garlock fault surface trace beneath array A5, offset to the side with faster velocities. The results provide important constraints for derivations of earthquake properties, simulations of ruptures and ground motion, and future imaging studies associated with the Garlock fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strengthening mechanisms, hardening/softening behavior, and microstructure evolution in an LPSO magnesium alloy at elevated temperatures

Here, rapid degradation of the mechanical properties of conventional Mg alloys with temperature precludes their wide application in industry. The LPSO (long period stacking ordered) Mg alloys, on the other hand, show considerable potential to achieve excellent high-temperature mechanical performance. In this study, a Mg-5.1Y-2.4Zn (wt.%) extrusion alloy with the microstructure comprising of α-Mg matrix and LPSO phase was prepared. It is shown that the yield strength of the alloy at 200 °C retained ~83% of the yield strength of 198 MPa at room temperature (RT). Importantly, the ductility also improved, owing to the increased non-basal slip activities at elevated temperatures. In contrast to RT and 200 °C, the alloy exhibited softening tensile behavior with an apparent loss of yield strength at 300 °C. In-situ lattice strain analysis revealed that load transfer from α-Mg to LPSO remains effective at temperatures up to 200 °C, governing the high yield strength of the alloy. The post-mortem analysis by means of electron microscopy confirmed that the LPSO phase is structurally stable at 200 °C. In particular, the high strain hardenability is rationalized by the sandwiched LPSO structures together with stacking faults serving as effective obstacles to the motion of non-basal dislocations. The load transfer effect disappears at the temperature of 300 °C, resulting in the fast deterioration of strength of the alloy. The cracking of the LPSO phase along with the recrystallizing of α-Mg grains were found to be the main causes for the softening behavior of the alloy at 300 °C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distorted dislocation cores and asymmetric glide resistances in titanium

The determination of Critical Resolved Shear Stress (CRSS) in titanium for basal, prismatic, and pyramidal slip-planes without empirical constants is presented by combining Density Functional Theory (DFT) and anisotropic elasticity. A new mechanism leading to tension-compression (T-C) asymmetry in the CRSS levels has been revealed for the first time. The conditions for this asymmetry are established, involving a complex interplay between the dislocation core-structure and core-advance behavior. The three conditions for T-C asymmetry that need to be simultaneously satisfied can be summarized as: (1) a medium stacking fault width, d, (3 < d/b F < 10, where b F is the magnitude of the Burgers vector of the full dislocation), (2) an asymmetric core-structure of the extended dislocation (ξ 1 ≠ ξ 2 , where ξ 1 and ξ 2 are the core-widths of the first and second partials, respectively), and (3) intermittent motion of the partials (Δd/b F ≠ 0, where Δd is the magnitude of fluctuation in stacking fault width during intermittent motion). Pyramidal-slip in titanium satisfies all three conditions, resulting in significant T-C asymmetry. The CRSS theory considers a Wigner-Seitz (W-S) cell based domain area assigned to each lattice site for the calculations of core-energies accurately capturing the slip-plane lattice. The W-S based approach is essential due to the lower symmetry of the HCP crystal circumventing potential errors associated with the one-dimensional atomic-row approximation. Dislocation core structures are obtained for all the slip-systems in titanium showing significant distortion of the disregistry profile governing the core-advance behavior. The CRSS values predicted from the theory show agreement with the experimental CRSS levels reported in the literature.

Dislocation core↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous inference of plate boundary stresses and mantle rheology using adjoints: large-scale 2-D models

SUMMARY Plate motions are a primary surface constraint on plate and mantle dynamics and rheology, plate boundary stresses and the occurrence of great earthquakes. Within an optimization method, we use plate motion data to better constrain uncertain mantle parameters. For the optimization problem characterizing the maximum a posteriori rheological parameters we derive gradients using adjoints and expressions to approximate the posterior distributions for stresses within plate boundaries. We apply these methods to a 2-D cross section from the western to eastern Pacific, with temperature distributions and fault zone geometries developed primarily from seismic and plate motion data. We find that the best-fitting stress exponent, n, is about 2.8 and the yield stress about 100 MPa or less. The normal stress on the interplate fault zones is about 100 MPa and the shear stresses about 10 MPa or less.

Rudi, Johann (ORCID:0000000265639265)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers, part II: Regional simulations of building response

The existing observational database of the regional-scale distribution of strong ground motions and measured building response for major earthquakes continues to be quite sparse. As a result, details of the regional variability and spatial distribution of ground motions, and the corresponding distribution of risk to buildings and other infrastructure, are not comprehensively understood. Utilizing high-performance computing platforms, emerging high-resolution, physics-based ground motion simulations can now resolve frequencies of engineering interest and provide detailed synthetic ground motions at high spatial density. This provides an opportunity for new insight into the distribution of infrastructure seismic demands and risk. In the work presented herein, the EQSIM fault-to-structure computational framework described in a companion paper, McCallen et al., is employed to investigate the regional-scale response of buildings to large earthquakes. A representative M = 7.0 strike-slip event is used to explore the distribution and amplitude of building demand, and comparisons are made between building response computed with fault-to-structure simulations and building response computed with existing measured near-fault earthquake records. New information on the distribution and variability of building response from high-performance parallel simulations is described and analyzed, and favorable first comparisons between building response predicted with both fault-to-structure simulations and real ground motions records are presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

AK112: Full Waveform Inversion Tomography of Alaska Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Crustal, Mantle, and Slab Structure

We report a full waveform inversion tomography model of Alaska and the surrounding regions, inferring radially anisotropic shear and isotropic compressional wavespeeds by fitting complete waveforms from 120 regional earthquakes. Our multiscale approach inverted time–frequency phase misfits (maximum period of 100 s), starting with a minimum period of 40 s and ending at 20 s in 7 stages and 112 total iterations. The model (AK112) was evaluated by computing the misfits for 36 independent validation events. We find that misfit reductions were large and equal (∼55%) for both the inversion and validation data sets, providing confidence in the model. AK112 also provides much better waveform fits compared to other reported models for the region, including an isotropic version of itself, highlighting the importance of anisotropy. The model resolves known crustal, upper mantle, and slab structure to depths of 100 km with new detail: sedimentary basins in the Alaskan Shelf, Cook Inlet, and Colville basins, among others; discontinuous lithospheric structure across major terrane boundaries; and subducting slab geometry and back‐arc volcanic sources. In addition to tectonic interpretations, the model enables full waveform simulations for long‐period earthquake ground motions and source characterization (e.g., moment tensor and finite‐fault inversion).

Rodgers, Arthur [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slow slip source characterized by lithological and geometric heterogeneity

Slow slip events (SSEs) accommodate a significant proportion of tectonic plate motion at subduction zones, yet little is known about the faults that actually host them. The shallow depth (<2 km) of well-documented SSEs at the Hikurangi subduction zone offshore New Zealand offers a unique opportunity to link geophysical imaging of the subduction zone with direct access to incoming material that represents the megathrust fault rocks hosting slow slip. Two recent International Ocean Discovery Program Expeditions sampled this incoming material before it is entrained immediately down-dip along the shallow plate interface. Drilling results, tied to regional seismic reflection images, reveal heterogeneous lithologies with highly variable physical properties entering the SSE source region. These observations suggest that SSEs and associated slow earthquake phenomena are promoted by lithological, mechanical, and frictional heterogeneity within the fault zone, enhanced by geometric complexity associated with subduction of rough crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Seismic Signals Generated by Vehicle Traffic with Application to Derivation of Subsurface Q-Values

Correct identification and modeling of anthropogenic sources of ground motion are of considerable importance for many studies, including detection of small earthquakes and imaging seismic properties below the surface. Here, to understand signals generated by common vehicle traffic, we use seismic data recorded by closely spaced geophones normal to roads at two sites on San Jacinto fault zone. To quantify the spatiotemporal and frequency variations of the recorded ground motions, we develop a simple analytical solution accounting for propagation and attenuation of surface waves. The model reproduces well-observed bell-shaped spectrograms of car signals recorded by geophones close to roads, and it can be used to estimate frequency-dependent Q-values of the subsurface materials. The data analysis indicates Q-values of 3–40, for frequencies up to 150 Hz for road-receiver paths at the two examined sites. The derived Q-values are consistent with attenuation factors of surface waves previously obtained with other methods. The analytical results and analysis procedure provide a highly efficient method for deriving Q-values of shallow subsurface materials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wasatch Fault Structure from Machine Learning Arrival Times and High-Precision Earthquake Locations

Abstract On 18 March 2020, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake hit the Salt Lake valley in the state of Utah, United States. Using a dense geophone deployment and machine learning (ML), an additional several thousand events were detected and located. Currently, both the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are suspected to have occurred on or near a deeper portion of the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault—part of a large range-bounding fault system thought to be capable of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake. However, a small subset of aftershocks may have occurred on a portion of the more steeply, eastward dipping, and poorly understood West Valley fault. Unfortunately, the catalog locations and lack of focal mechanisms for this subset of aftershocks provide only a crude constraint on the true fault structure. To better illuminate fault structure, we relocate the ML-generated catalog with a range of magnitudes from −2 to 4.6, using: (1) NonLinLoc, a nonlinear location algorithm, (2) source-specific station terms, and (3) waveform coherence. We further compute first-motion focal mechanisms for 68 events. Results of the relocation suggest a simpler, minimally listric Wasatch fault geometry, contrary to what has been previously proposed. We also find that analysis of the focal mechanisms and waveform similarity indicates minimal event similarity throughout the Magna sequence, suggesting a highly complex and heterogeneous rupture zone, as opposed to rupture on a single plane. These findings suggest an increased seismic hazard due to the overall shallowness of the earthquake sequence and highly varied rupture mechanisms.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗