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Breakthrough Capability for the NASA Astrophysics Explorer Program: Reaching the Darkest Sky

We describe a mission architecture designed to substantially increase the science capability of the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Astrophysics Explorer Program for all AO proposers working within the near-UV to far-infrared spectrum. We have demonstrated that augmentation of Falcon 9 Explorer launch services with a 13 kW Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) stage can deliver a 700 kg science observatory payload to extra-Zodiacal orbit. This new capability enables up to ~13X increased photometric sensitivity and ~160X increased observing speed relative to a Sun- Earth L2, Earth-trailing, or Earth orbit with no increase in telescope aperture. All enabling SEP stage technologies for this launch service augmentation have reached sufficient readiness (TRL-6) for Explorer Program application in conjunction with the Falcon 9. We demonstrate that enabling Astrophysics Explorers to reach extra-zodiacal orbit will allow this small payload program to rival the science performance of much larger long development time systems; thus, providing a means to realize major science objectives while increasing the SMD Astrophysics portfolio diversity and resiliency to external budget pressure. The SEP technology employed in this study has strong applicability to SMD Planetary Science community-proposed missions. SEP is a stated flight demonstration priority for NASA's Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT). This new mission architecture for astrophysics Explorers enables an attractive realization of joint goals for OCT and SMD with wide applicability across SMD science disciplines.

capabiity↗

Design Concepts for a Small Space-Based GEO Relay Satellite for Missions Between Low Earth and near Earth Orbits

The main purpose of the Small Space-Based Geosynchronous Earth orbiting (GEO) satellite is to provide a space link to the user mission spacecraft for relaying data through ground networks to user Mission Control Centers. The Small Space Based Satellite (SSBS) will provide services comparable to those of a NASA Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) for the same type of links. The SSBS services will keep the user burden the same or lower than for TDRS and will support the same or higher data rates than those currently supported by TDRS. At present, TDRSS provides links and coverage below GEO; however, SSBS links and coverage capability to above GEO missions are being considered for the future, especially for Human Space Flight Missions (HSF). There is also a rising need for the capability to support high data rate links (exceeding 1 Gbps) for imaging applications. The communication payload on the SSBS will provide S/Ka-band single access links to the mission and a Ku-band link to the ground, with an optical communication payload as an option. To design the communication payload, various link budgets were analyzed and many possible operational scenarios examined. To reduce user burden, using a larger-sized antenna than is currently in use by TDRS was considered. Because of the SSBS design size, it was found that a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket could deliver three SSBSs to GEO. This will greatly reduce the launch costs per satellite. Using electric propulsion was also evaluated versus using chemical propulsion; the power system size and time to orbit for various power systems were also considered. This paper will describe how the SSBS will meet future service requirements, concept of operations, and the design to meet NASA users' needs for below and above GEO missions. These users' needs not only address the observational mission requirements but also possible HSF missions to the year 2030. We will provide the trade-off analysis of the communication payload design in terms of the number of links looking above and below GEO; the detailed design of a GEO SSBS spacecraft bus and its accommodation of the communication payload, and a summary of the trade study that resulted in the selection of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle to deploy the SSBS and its impact on cost reductions per satellite. ======================================================================== Several initiatives have taken place within NASA1 and international space agencies2 to create a human exploration strategy for expanding human presence into the solar system; these initiatives have been driven by multiple factors to benefit Earth. Of the many elements in the strategy one stands out: to send robotic and human missions to destinations beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), including cis-lunar space, Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs), the Moon, and Mars and its moons.3, 4 The time frame for human exploration to various destinations, based on the public information available,1,4 is shown in Figure 1. Advance planning is needed to define how future space communications services will be provided in the new budget environment to meet future space communications needs. The spacecraft for these missions can be dispersed anywhere from below LEO to beyond GEO, and to various destinations within the solar system. NASA's Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program office provides communication and tracking services to space missions during launch, in-orbit testing, and operation phases. Currently, SCaN's space networking relay satellites mainly provide services to users below GEO, at Near Earth Orbit (NEO), below LEO, and in deep space. The potential exists for using a space-based relay satellite, located in the vicinity of various solar system destinations, to provide communication space links to missions both below and above its orbit. Such relays can meet the needs of human exploration missions for maximum connectivity to Earth locations and for reduced latency. In the past, several studies assessed the ability of satellite-based relays working above GEO in conjunction with Earth ground stations. Many of these focused on the trade between space relay and direct-to-Earth station links5,6,7. Several others focused on top-level architecture based on relays at various destinations8,9,10,11,12. Much has changed in terms of microwave and optical technology since the publication of the referenced papers; Ka-band communication systems are being deployed, optical communication is being demonstrated, and spacecraft buses are becoming increasingly more functional and operational. A design concept study was undertaken to access the potential for deploying a Small Space-Based Satellite (SSBS) relay capable of serving missions between LEO and NEO. The needs of future human exploration missions were analyzed, and a notional relay-based architecture concept was generated as shown in Fig. 1. Relay satellites in Earth through cis-Lunar orbits are normally located in stable orbits requiring low fuel consumption. Relay satellites for Mars orbit are normally selected based on the mission requirement and projected fuel consumption. Relay satellites have extreme commonalities of functions between them, differing only in the redundancy and frequencies used; therefore, the relay satellite in GEO was selected for further analysis since it will be the first step in achieving a relay-based architecture for human exploration missions (see Fig.Figure 2). The mission design methodology developed by the Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team13 was used to produce the satellite relay design and to perform various design trades. At the start of the activity, the team was provided with the detailed concept of the notional architecture and the system and communication payload drivers.

Relay Satellites↗

Trailing Vortex-Induced Loads During Close Encounters in Cruise

The trailing vortex induced aerodynamic loads on a Falcon 20G business jet flying in the wake of a DC-8 are predicted to provide a preflight estimate of safe trail distances during flight test measurements in the wake. Static and dynamic loads on the airframe flying in the near wake are shown at a matrix of locations, and the dynamic motion of the Falcon 20G during traverses of the DC-8 primary trailing vortex is simulated. Safe trailing distances for the test flights are determined, and optimum vortex traverse schemes are identified to moderate the motion of the trailing aircraft during close encounters with the vortex wake.

Mendenhall, Michael R.↗

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Simulated Clouds Using Observations from CloudSat, GOES-13 and in Situ Aircraft

This study aimed to assess tropical cloud properties predicted by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM)modelwhen run with the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment cloud microphysical scheme and one-way nesting that culminated at a (∼300 km)2 inner domain with 0.25 km horizontal grid spacing. The assessment utilized satellite and in situ data collected during the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) projects for a mesoscale convective system on 16May 2015 over French Guiana.Data fromCloud- Sat’s cloud-profiling radar and GOES-13’s imager were compared to data either simulated directly by GEM or produced by operating on GEM’s cloud data with both the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) instrument simulator and a three-dimensional Monte Carlo solar radiative transfer model. In situ observations were made from research aircraft – Canada’s National Research Council Convair-580 and the French SAFIRE Falcon-20 – whose flight paths were aligned with CloudSat’s ground-track. Spatial and temporal shifts of clouds simulated by GEM compared well to GOES-13 imagery. There are, however, differences between simulated and observed amounts of high and low cloud. While GEM did well at predicting ranges of ice-water content (IWC) near 11 km altitude (Falcon-20), it produces too much graupel and snow near 7 km (Convair-580). This produced large differences between CloudSat’s and COSP-generated radar reflectivities and two-way attenuations. On the other hand, CloudSat’s inferred values of IWC agree well with in situ samples at both altitudes. Generally, GEM’s visible reflectances exceeded GOES-13’s on account of having produced too much low-level liquid cloud. It is expected that GEM’s disproportioning of cloud hydrometeors will improve once it includes a better representation of secondary ice production.

Qu, Zhipeng↗

Effect of Engine Thrust and Isp Tradeoffs and Alternate Propellants on ΔV Budget and Architecture Mass for 1st Generation Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Flight Test Systems

Following the first Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system test, also known as DRACO, the next NTP system to be developed would be the 1st Generation NTP system. An analysis was conducted to determine the performance of different vehicle configurations utilizing hydrogen (H-NTP), ammonia (A-NTP), and methane (M-NTP) as propellants launched onboard commercial launch vehicles. This was enabled by a quasi-steady-state power balance engine model and vehicle component physics that sized the vehicle system using Master Equipment List (MEL) parameters. The analysis considered configuration cases outlined by a matrix of different mission classes and vehicle configurations that covered the design space of the 1st Generation NTP system to explore various propellant options, engine architectures, and mission scopes. Four mission classes were evaluated which included single burn missions performing maneuvers having a ΔV of 1 km/s and 2.5 km/s followed by 2-burn and 4-burn missions that aimed to exhaust the launch vehicles volume or mass limitations. In all cases, the NTP systems with the lowest thrust class had the longest burn time of which A-NTP and M-NTP systems provided the longest and shortest burn times depending on the launch vehicle used while H-NTP systems tended to cluster together in the middle. Longer burn times could be useful as a testing platform to increase the time for data accumulation. Across the multi-burn cases, H-NTP systems were found to be volume limited while A-NTP and M-NTP systems were mass limited. Both single burn missions showed that A-NTP configurations provided the lowest dry mass given that ammonia had the highest density with comparable performance to M-NTP systems and no requirement for cryocoolers. The results showed that beyond the propellant selection type, the launch vehicle selection, which included Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan, Falcon 9 (recoverable), and Falcon Heavy (recoverable), was a primary driving factor in the test vehicle’s capabilities. Trends were determined based on a set of dimensionless parameters that included the mass ratio of inert mass to initial wetted mass, ratio of specific impulse to burn time, and a dimensionless engine parameter (ratio of impulse to engine momentum). These relationships found the “knees-in-the-curves” that could be a significant point of reference for the designer as they indicate a change in the trend which is located at a specific impulse to burn time ratio of 1, a mass ratio of 0.6, and an engine performance parameter of 4. This study did not attempt to make a recommendation rather provide the tools for the reader to select their own configuration based on their needs.

Propellant↗

Effect of Engine Thrust and Isp Tradeoffs and Alternate Propellants on ΔV Budget and Architecture Mass for 1st Generation Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Flight Test Systems

Following the first Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system test, also known as DRACO, the next NTP system to be developed would be the 1st Generation NTP system. An analysis was conducted to determine the performance of different vehicle configurations utilizing hydrogen (H-NTP), ammonia (A-NTP), and methane (M-NTP) as propellants launched onboard commercial launch vehicles. This was enabled by a quasi-steady-state power balance engine model and vehicle component physics that sized the vehicle system using Master Equipment List (MEL) parameters. The analysis considered configuration cases outlined by a matrix of different mission classes and vehicle configurations that covered the design space of the 1st Generation NTP system to explore various propellant options, engine architectures, and mission scopes. Four mission classes were evaluated which included single burn missions performing maneuvers having a ΔV of 1 km/s and 2.5 km/s followed by 2-burn and 4-burn missions that aimed to exhaust the launch vehicles volume or mass limitations. In all cases, the NTP systems with the lowest thrust class had the longest burn time of which A-NTP and M-NTP systems provided the longest and shortest burn times depending on the launch vehicle used while H-NTP systems tended to cluster together in the middle. Longer burn times could be useful as a testing platform to increase the time for data accumulation. Across the multi-burn cases, H-NTP systems were found to be volume limited while A-NTP and M-NTP systems were mass limited. Both single burn missions showed that A-NTP configurations provided the lowest dry mass given that ammonia had the highest density with comparable performance to M-NTP systems and no requirement for cryocoolers. The results showed that beyond the propellant selection type, the launch vehicle selection, which included Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan, Falcon 9 (recoverable), and Falcon Heavy (recoverable), was a primary driving factor in the test vehicle’s capabilities. Trends were determined based on a set of dimensionless parameters that included the mass ratio of inert mass to initial wetted mass, ratio of specific impulse to burn time, and a dimensionless engine parameter (ratio of impulse to engine momentum). These relationships found the “knees-in-the-curves” that could be a significant point of reference for the designer as they indicate a change in the trend which is located at a specific impulse to burn time ratio of 1, a mass ratio of 0.6, and an engine performance parameter of 4. This study did not attempt to make a recommendation rather provide the tools for the reader to select their own configuration based on their needs.

Propellant↗

Effect of Engine Thrust and Isp Tradeoffs and Alternate Propellants on ΔV Budget and Architecture Mass for 1st Generation Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Flight Test Systems

Following the first Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system test, also known as DRACO, the next NTP system to be developed would be the 1st Generation NTP system. An analysis was conducted to determine the performance of different vehicle configurations utilizing hydrogen (H-NTP), ammonia (A-NTP), and methane (M-NTP) as propellants launched onboard commercial launch vehicles. This was enabled by a quasi-steady-state power balance engine model and vehicle component physics that sized the vehicle system using Master Equipment List (MEL) parameters. The analysis considered configuration cases outlined by a matrix of different mission classes and vehicle configurations that covered the design space of the 1st Generation NTP system to explore various propellant options, engine architectures, and mission scopes. Four mission classes were evaluated which included single burn missions performing maneuvers having a ΔV of 1 km/s and 2.5 km/s followed by 2-burn and 4-burn missions that aimed to exhaust the launch vehicles volume or mass limitations. In all cases, the NTP systems with the lowest thrust class had the longest burn time of which A-NTP and M-NTP systems provided the longest and shortest burn times depending on the launch vehicle used while H-NTP systems tended to cluster together in the middle. Longer burn times could be useful as a testing platform to increase the time for data accumulation. Across the multi-burn cases, H-NTP systems were found to be volume limited while A-NTP and M-NTP systems were mass limited. Both single burn missions showed that A-NTP configurations provided the lowest dry mass given that ammonia had the highest density with comparable performance to M-NTP systems and no requirement for cryocoolers. The results showed that beyond the propellant selection type, the launch vehicle selection, which included Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan, Falcon 9 (recoverable), and Falcon Heavy (recoverable), was a primary driving factor in the test vehicle’s capabilities. Trends were determined based on a set of dimensionless parameters that included the mass ratio of inert mass to initial wetted mass, ratio of specific impulse to burn time, and a dimensionless engine parameter (ratio of impulse to engine momentum). These relationships found the “knees-in-the-curves” that could be a significant point of reference for the designer as they indicate a change in the trend which is located at a specific impulse to burn time ratio of 1, a mass ratio of 0.6, and an engine performance parameter of 4. This study did not attempt to make a recommendation rather provide the tools for the reader to select their own configuration based on their needs.

Propellant↗

Large-Scale Coronal Heating from "Cool" Activity in the Solar Magnetic Network

In Fe XII images from SOHO/EIT, the quiet solar corona shows structure on scales ranging from sub-supergranular (i.e., bright points and coronal network) to multi-supergranular (large-scale corona). In Falconer et al 1998 (Ap.J., 501, 386) we suppressed the large-scale background and found that the network-scale features are predominantly rooted in the magnetic network lanes at the boundaries of the supergranules. Taken together, the coronal network emission and bright point emission are only about 5% of the entire quiet solar coronal Fe XII emission. Here we investigate the relationship between the large-scale corona and the network as seen in three different EIT filters (He II, Fe IX-X, and Fe XII). Using the median-brightness contour, we divide the large-scale Fe XII corona into dim and bright halves, and find that the bright-half/dim half brightness ratio is about 1.5. We also find that the bright half relative to the dim half has 10 times greater total bright point Fe XII emission, 3 times greater Fe XII network emission, 2 times greater Fe IX-X network emission, 1.3 times greater He II network emission, and has 1.5 times more magnetic flux. Also, the cooler network (He II) radiates an order of magnitude more energy than the hotter coronal network (Fe IX-X, and Fe XII). From these results we infer that: 1) The heating of the network and the heating of the large-scale corona each increase roughly linearly with the underlying magnetic flux. 2) The production of network coronal bright points and heating of the coronal network each increase nonlinearly with the magnetic flux. 3) The heating of the large-scale corona is driven by widespread cooler network activity rather than by the exceptional network activity that produces the network coronal bright points and the coronal network. 4) The large-scale corona is heated by a nonthermal process since the driver of its heating is cooler than it is. This work was funded by the Solar Physics Branch of NASA's office of Space Science through the SR&T Program and the SEC Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Microflaring in Low-Lying Core Fields and Extended Coronal Heating in the Quiet Sun

We have previously reported analyses of Yohkoh SXT data examining the relationship between the heating of extended coronal loops (both within and stemming from active regions) and microflaring in core fields lying along neutral lines near their footpoints (J. G. Porter, D. A. Falconer, and R. L. Moore 1998, in Solar Jets and Coronal Plumes, ed. T. Guyenne, ESA SP-421, and references therein). We found a surprisingly poor correlation of intensity variations in the extended loops with individual microflares in the compact heated areas at their feet, despite considerable circumstancial evidence linking the heating processes in these regions. Now, a study of Fe XII image sequences from SOHO EIT show that similar associations of core field structures with the footpoints of very extended coronal features can be found in the quiet Sun. The morphology is consistent with the finding of Wang et al. (1997, ApJ 484, L75) that polar plumes are rooted at sites of mixed polarity in the magnetic network. We find that the upstairs/downstairs intensity variations often follow the trend, identified in the active region observations, of a weak correspondence. Apparently much of the coronal heating in the extended loops is driven by a type of core field magnetic activity that is "cooler" than the events having the coronal signature of microflares, i.e., activity that results in little heating within the core fields themselves. This work was funded by the Solar Physics Branch of NASA's Office of Space Science through the SR&T Program and the SEC Guest Investigator Program.

Porter, Jason G.↗

Large-Scale Coronal Heating from the Solar Magnetic Network

In Fe 12 images from SOHO/EIT, the quiet solar corona shows structure on scales ranging from sub-supergranular (i.e., bright points and coronal network) to multi- supergranular. In Falconer et al 1998 (Ap.J., 501, 386) we suppressed the large-scale background and found that the network-scale features are predominantly rooted in the magnetic network lanes at the boundaries of the supergranules. The emission of the coronal network and bright points contribute only about 5% of the entire quiet solar coronal Fe MI emission. Here we investigate the large-scale corona, the supergranular and larger-scale structure that we had previously treated as a background, and that emits 95% of the total Fe XII emission. We compare the dim and bright halves of the large- scale corona and find that the bright half is 1.5 times brighter than the dim half, has an order of magnitude greater area of bright point coverage, has three times brighter coronal network, and has about 1.5 times more magnetic flux than the dim half These results suggest that the brightness of the large-scale corona is more closely related to the large- scale total magnetic flux than to bright point activity. We conclude that in the quiet sun: (1) Magnetic flux is modulated (concentrated/diluted) on size scales larger than supergranules. (2) The large-scale enhanced magnetic flux gives an enhanced, more active, magnetic network and an increased incidence of network bright point formation. (3) The heating of the large-scale corona is dominated by more widespread, but weaker, network activity than that which heats the bright points. This work was funded by the Solar Physics Branch of NASA's office of Space Science through the SR&T Program and the SEC Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, David A.↗

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO/EIT coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms (Falconer et al 1998, ApJ, 501, 386-396), we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the e-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approx. 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (>approx.30,000 km). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing fines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, Fisher et A (1998, ApJ, 508, 985-998) found that the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results, together with the result of Fisher et al (1999), suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program and the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

The Maximum Free Magnetic Energy Allowed in a Solar Active Region

Two whole-active-region magnetic quantities that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram are (sup L) WL(sub SG), a gauge of the total free energy in an active region's magnetic field, and sup L(sub theta), a measure of the active region's total magnetic flux. From these two quantities measured from 1865 SOHO/MDI magnetograms that tracked 44 sunspot active regions across the 0.5 R(sub Sun) central disk, together with each active region's observed production of CMEs, X flares, and M flares, Falconer et al (2009, ApJ, submitted) found that (1) active regions have a maximum attainable free magnetic energy that increases with the magnetic size (sup L) (sub theta) of the active region, (2) in (Log (sup L)WL(sub SG), Log(sup L) theta) space, CME/flare-productive active regions are concentrated in a straight-line main sequence along which the free magnetic energy is near its upper limit, and (3) X and M flares are restricted to large active regions. Here, from (a) these results, (b) the observation that even the greatest X flares produce at most only subtle changes in active region magnetograms, and (c) measurements from MSFC vector magnetograms and from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms showing that practically all sunspot active regions have nearly the same area-averaged magnetic field strength: =- theta/A approximately equal to 300 G, where theta is the active region's total photospheric flux of field stronger than 100 G and A is the area of that flux, we infer that (1) the maximum allowed ratio of an active region's free magnetic energy to its potential-field energy is ~1, and (2) any one CME/flare eruption releases no more than a small fraction (less than ~10%) of the active region's free magnetic energy. This work was funded by NASA's Heliophysics Division and NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

Falconer, David↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗