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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Water Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from bodies of water based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from water that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific water setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from structures based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 61 meters was applied in counties without specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Solar PV Road Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends

This dataset represents solar energy setback requirements from roads based on county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a road that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a default setback of 30 meters was applied in counties without specific road setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where solar energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Water Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from water based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from water that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific water setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Transmission Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from transmission based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from transmission infrastructure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific transmission setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from structures based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 2 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Road Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from roads based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a road that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific railroad setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Railroad Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from railroad based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a railroad that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific railroad setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

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DOE OSTI2025

Wind Turbine Sound Setbacks and Supply Curves: Ordinances and Extrapolated Trends, 110 Hub Height, 130 Rotor Diameter

This dataset provides a comprehensive set of wind turbine sound setbacks from every residential structure in the contiguous United States (CONUS). A sound setback is defined as the minimum required distance between a residential structure and a hypothetical turbine installation site to ensure that modeled sound levels received at the residence do not exceed local sound ordinances, which are commonly expressed in A-weighted decibels (dBA). Therefore, sound setbacks are a local spatial assessment combining multiple factors, including the sound pressure curve as a function of the observer location (distance and direction) relative to the turbine, local sound regulations, and the geographical distribution of residential structures. The dataset is organized into multiple scenario-based products, detailed as follows: 1. Existing and extrapolated sound setbacks. An existing scenario characterizes sound setbacks only in states or counties that have implemented sound regulations as of 2022. The extrapolated scenarios extend a constant sound threshold to counties that lack explicit sound regulations, with thresholds ranging from 35 to 60 dBA, in 5-dBA increments reflecting the variation observed in current sound ordinances. 2. Sound setbacks in directional and worst scenarios. The directional scenario accounts for the distance and orientation of residential structures relative to a hypothetical turbine location, utilizing the turbine's sound emissions in that specific direction. In contrast, the worst scenario takes loudest sound level at each distance step from the turbine, irrespective of directional considerations, which aligns with current industry practice. 3. Supply curves for Open and Reference Access scenarios. This dataset includes supply curves generated by the reV model, which integrates each of the above sound setbacks into both Open and Reference siting scenarios. In addition, two Open and Reference baselines scenarios were included which do not consider sound setbacks for comparative analysis. All sound setback data are stored in TIF files, with partial maps of the data provided in PNG format. The values in the sound setback raster range from 0 to 1, representing the fraction of developable land within a 90 meter by 90 meter pixel due to sound ordinances. A value of 0 indicates areas where wind energy development is prohibited, while a value of 1 signifies areas fully permissible. The wind turbine parameters used in the sound modeling are based on the land-based turbine from International Energy Agency (IEA), featuring a rated electrical power of 3.4 MW, a rotor diameter of 130 meters, and a hub height of 110 meters. The atmospheric conditions, including wind speed/direction, turbulence, air temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure, that drive the sound generation are obtained from the WIND Toolkit dataset.

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DOE OSTI2025

Diagenesis is key to unlocking outcrop fracture data suitable for quantitative extrapolation to geothermal targets

Exceptionally large, well-exposed sandstone outcrops in New York provide insights into folds, deformation bands, and fractures that could influence permeability, heat exchange, and stimulation outcomes of geothermal reservoir targets. Cambrian Potsdam Sandstone with <5% porosity contains decimeter-scale open, angular-limbed monoclines <0.5 km apart with associated low-porosity mm-wide cataclastic deformation bands. Crossing and abutting relationships among sub-vertical opening-mode fractures show four chronological Sets A–D, striking NNW, NE, NW, and ENE, respectively. Fracture lengths and heights range from millimeters to tens of meters. Sets A and C macro-fractures, and possibly B and D, contain quartz deposits. All sets have abundant associated quartz cemented microfractures that also record set orientations and crosscutting relations. Quartz cement deposits—evidence of diagenesis—are the key to identifying attributes of outcrop fractures suitable for extrapolation to geothermal targets in sandstones because they show which fractures formed in the subsurface. Set A fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures (120°C–129°C) are compatible with fracture at >3 km depth. Fractures are stiff and those ≥0.05 mm (Set C) and ≥0.1 mm (Set A) are open and potentially conducive to flow. Sets A and D are abundant in outcrops with close fracture spacing—0.18 m and 0.68 m, respectively—and define a rectangular connectivity network dominated by crossing and abutting X and Y nodes. Set A aperture distributions follow a power law with slope –0.8 up to 0.15 mm; other sets have lognormal distributions. Set A and D microfractures are weakly clustered, while macro-fractures commonly have 1D anticlustered (regular or periodic) arrangements at shorter length scales (<0.2 m). Sub-horizontal fractures are barren and may have formed near the surface. Fracture heights, lengths, and spatial arrangements show good trace connectivity but low open connectivity. For geothermal applications, outcrop results predict low initial well-test permeabilities owing to quartz disconnecting open fractures, but stimulation of closely spaced microfractures and partly open macro-fractures could yield high surface area for heat exchange. Quantitative extrapolation of key fracture attributes like abundance, orientation, spatial arrangement, length, and open fracture connectivity is possible from outcrops to fractured reservoirs if differing thermal histories and diagenesis are accounted for.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling extrapolations of nuclear properties with feature selection

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently inaccurate because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model bias can be directly calculated when experimental data is available, only an estimate can be made in the absence of such measurements. Current approaches to compute the estimated bias quickly lose predictive power when their input variables are taken far from the training region, resulting in uncontrolled uncertainties in applications such as nucleosynthesis simulations. In this letter, we present a novel technique to identify the input variables of machine learning algorithms that can provide robust estimates of model bias. Our process is based on selecting input variables, or features, based on their probability distribution functions across the entire nuclear chart. We illustrate our approach on the problem of quantifying the model bias in nuclear binding energies calculated with Density Functional Theory (DFT). We prove that building model biases with only Z and N as features leads to highly unreliable extrapolations. Conversely, we show that proper feature selection can systematically improve theoretical predictions without increasing uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data efficiency and extrapolation trends in neural network interatomic potentials

Abstract Recently, key architectural advances have been proposed for neural network interatomic potentials (NNIPs), such as incorporating message-passing networks, equivariance, or many-body expansion terms. Although modern NNIP models exhibit small differences in test accuracy, this metric is still considered the main target when developing new NNIP architectures. In this work, we show how architectural and optimization choices influence the generalization of NNIPs, revealing trends in molecular dynamics (MD) stability, data efficiency, and loss landscapes. Using the 3BPA dataset, we uncover trends in NNIP errors and robustness to noise, showing these metrics are insufficient to predict MD stability in the high-accuracy regime. With a large-scale study on NequIP, MACE, and their optimizers, we show that our metric of loss entropy predicts out-of-distribution error and data efficiency despite being computed only on the training set. This work provides a deep learning justification for probing extrapolation and can inform the development of next-generation NNIPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multigrid reduction in time with Richardson extrapolation

The advent of exascale computing will leave many users with access to more computational resources than they can simultaneously use, e.g., billion-way parallelism. In particular, this is true for time-dependent simulations that limit parallelism to the spatial domain. One method to add parallelism in time to existing simulation codes and thus take advantage of ever larger compute resources is Multigrid Reduction in Time (MGRIT). The goal is to achieve a smaller time-to-solution through parallelism in time. In this paper, MGRIT is enhanced with Richardson extrapolation in a cost-efficient way to produce a parallel-in-time method with improved accuracy. Overall, this leads to a large improvement in the accuracy per computational cost of MGRIT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Co-Expression Extrapolation (COXEN) Gene Selection Method for Building Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

The co-expression extrapolation (COXEN) method has been successfully used in multiple studies to select genes for predicting the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. Here, we enhance the COXEN method to select genes that are predictive of the efficacies of multiple drugs for building general drug response prediction models that are not specific to a particular drug. The enhanced COXEN method first ranks the genes according to their prediction power for each individual drug and then takes a union of top predictive genes of all the drugs, among which the algorithm further selects genes whose co-expression patterns are well preserved between cancer cases for building prediction models. We apply the proposed method on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets and compare the performance of prediction models built based on the genes selected by the enhanced COXEN method to that of models built on genes selected by the original COXEN method and randomly picked genes. Models built with the enhanced COXEN method always present a statistically significantly improved prediction performance (adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05). Our results demonstrate the enhanced COXEN method can dramatically increase the power of gene expression data for predicting drug response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-resonant anomaly detection with background extrapolation

Complete anomaly detection strategies that are both signal sensitive and compatible with background estimation have largely focused on resonant signals. Non-resonant new physics scenarios are relatively under-explored and may arise from off-shell effects or final states with significant missing energy. In this paper, we extend a class of weakly supervised anomaly detection strategies developed for resonant physics to the non-resonant case. Machine learning models are trained to reweight, generate, or morph the background, extrapolated from a control region. A classifier is then trained in a signal region to distinguish the estimated background from the data. The new methods are demonstrated using a semi-visible jet signature as a benchmark signal model, and are shown to automatically identify the anomalous events without specifying the signal ahead of time.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regularizing the linearly extrapolated BDF2 scheme for incompressible flows with time relaxation

This paper presents a highly-efficient finite element scheme for the time relaxation model (TRM). The efficiency is achieved through the second-order BDF2 time-stepping scheme with linear extrapolation (BDF2LE). The accuracy of the scheme is also greatly enhanced through the use of the divergence-free Scott-Vogeulis finite elements, and van Cittert approximate deconvolution. A complete finite element analysis is provided, which includes rigorous proofs for the stability, well-possessedness, and convergence of both velocity and pressure solutions. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the inclusion of the linear time relaxation term preserves the long-time stability of the unregularized BDF2LE scheme. Finally, numerical experiments are presented that demonstrate the added stability and accuracy that time relaxation can provide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-faceted framework for extrapolating early age flexural strength to facilitate rapid lifting/handling of high-volume fly ash precast members

Maintaining adequate early-age structural performance for precast concrete components has grown in importance as more sustainable mix designs become more widespread. Achieving high-early flexural strength is particularly crucial to facilitate rapid removal of hardened concrete components from formwork, often within 24 h after fresh concrete placement. Limited research has assessed the effectiveness of traditional design methods in correlating flexural strength with compressive strength for next-generation mix designs, or demonstrated extrapolation of such material performance to larger-scale structural tests. This paper presents a multi-faceted framework to reassess early-age flexural strength for concretes made with relatively high proportions of fly ash from both fresh and harvested sources. Here, the framework provides several pathways, from which the user can select based upon available resources and the specific application, to improve accuracy of early-age cracking moment calculations. Furthermore, the scope includes evaluation of strength performance under curing conditions emulative of those in a precast facility, recommending modulus of rupture equations which are more performance-driven than current design provisions, and experimental tests on prefabricated concrete beams to validate the proposed methodologies. Correlations of early-age strength with both concrete age and maturity measurements compare the effectiveness of utilizing in-situ data to further enhance the prediction methods. Ultimately, the proposed framework helped reduce errors when calculating cracking moment capacity at early ages by tailoring calculations to reflect mix-dependent behavior. Furthermore, most estimates of cracking moment were within 25 % of their corresponding experimental test results, thus promoting confidence for using these strategies with high-volume fly ash precast structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗