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Advancing Manufacturing Water Resilience: Addressing Risks through New Approaches and Technologies

Water is indispensable in manufacturing operations, and many manufacturers operate on the assumption that water of sufficient quality and quantity will be available whenever and wherever needed. As such, the importance of water to this sector has been overlooked, despite its critical importance for operations and meeting production demands, due to perceived sufficient availability and low cost of water to manufacturers. However, the situation is changing as water-related risks are markedly increasing due to aging infrastructure, changing climate, and resource extraction, which alter global and regional water cycles and characteristics. These changes are occurring against a backdrop of intensifying competition from other sectors for scarce and/or unevenly distributed water resources and changing trends in water needs. Section 1 of this report explores those risks in the U.S. context, while the remaining sections detail the work needed to advance the resilience of manufacturing water supplies to these changing risks by filling critical data gaps, re-evaluating the value of water to manufacturers, and advancing opportunities for novel technologies and analyses. The intended audience for this report is broad, including manufacturers, decision makers, researchers, and policymakers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Test Points for Online Monitoring of Quantum Circuits

Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers consisting of tens of inherently noisy quantum bits (qubits) suffer from reliability problems. Qubits and their gates are susceptible to various types of errors. Due to limited numbers of qubits and high error rates, quantum error correction cannot be applied. Physical constraints of quantum hardware including the error rates are used to guide the design and the layout of quantum circuits. The error rates determine the selection of qubits and their operations. The resulting circuit is executed on the quantum computer. This study explores the risk of unexpected changes in the error rates of NISQ computers post-calibration. We show that unexpected changes in error rates can alter the output state of a quantum circuit. To detect these changes, we propose the insertion of test points into the quantum circuit to enable online monitoring of the physical qubit behavior. We utilize classical, superposition, and uncompute test points. Furthermore, we use a gate error coverage metric to assess the quality of the tests. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme on different IBM quantum computers (IBM Q), in addition to a noisy simulation that shows the scalability of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ghent Generating Station Nuclear Study: Siting Evaluation

The purpose of this initial siting evaluation is to assess the suitability of the PPL Corporation (PPL) owned land at/near the Kentucky Utilities Ghent Generating Station (GGS) for the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors and to determine if there are any exclusionary or avoidance factors associated with siting nuclear power at GGS. The formal siting process for a nuclear reactor requires a great level of time (i.e., multiple years), effort, and detail. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimates the formal siting process could take a dedicated team between one and three years to complete. This initial siting evaluation considers several characteristics (e.g., environmental conditions, seismic concerns, footprint, water use, etc.) and highlights favorable/preferred characteristics as well as potential risks to feasibility. Potential risks were explored in greater detail to provide PPL with additional insights to support decision planning. The results indicate the strengths and weaknesses associated with the GGS site as a location for a nuclear generating station and are intended to inform PPL’s next steps. The results of this initial siting evaluation will also inform the selection of candidate nuclear technologies for the GGS site that align with PPL’s mission and business objectives.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Income Verification Strategies for Income-Based Solar Programs

The Inflation Reduction Act has created substantial new programs that support adoption of solar power by low-income households, including the $7 billion Solar For All program and the Low-Income Communities Bonus Credit Program, which increases the investment tax credit for certain types of deployment. In addition, a growing number of states are using solar programs to reduce energy burdens and create energy justice opportunities for low-income households and disadvantaged communities. Verifying the income of participating customers is an important component of these programs. Program managers are seeking strategies to verify a large number of subscribing customers in an accurate, timely, and cost-efficient manner. To help inform program managers, Berkeley Lab investigated how a number of energy and non-energy programs manage income verification. The most common approach is to require proof through tax documents, pay stubs, or other formal income documentation, which can pose an impediment to enrolling eligible customers and create a paperwork burden for administrators. In order to reduce the burden for both the applicant and the program manager, some programs use alternative methods. We identify three common alternative verification methods: -Categorical eligibility: Customers enrolled in other, similar income-verified assistance programs are automatically eligible for enrollment in other income-qualified programs. -Geographic eligibility: Eligibility is based on the customer’s location within a specified area, typically a low-income or disadvantaged community or census tract, and; -“Self-attestation”: The participant claims eligibility with or without further documentation. We describe these options, their pros and cons, give examples of how they are used, and explore how some low-income programs address administrative issues, audits, or other quality control measures. Finally, we explore the risk of mistaken verifications (finding a participant eligible when they are not) in the different strategies. While this memo was initiated by a request relating to income-based community solar programs, the methods are applicable to any program with income eligibility requirements in the energy or non-energy sector. Funding was provided for this research by the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy, through the National Community Solar Partnership.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mitigating Stranded Asset Risks to Utility Customers: an Exploration of Securitization and Retiring Coal Generation

Coal generation currently accounts for approximately 19.5 percent of electricity generated in the United States, down from 51.7 percent of the generation mix in 2000. In 2023, the EIA expects 8.9 gigawatts (GW) of planned retirements of coal-fired capacity. Many of the coal-fired power plant retirements that have already occurred or are planned for the next decade will be plants that have not yet reached the end of their useful life, and are therefore not fully depreciated. Ensuring that utility customers do not face an undue burden in paying for these stranded assets will become an increasingly important issue over the next few years for PUCs overseeing the safety, reliability, and affordability of investor-owned utility service. This report reviews the role that securitization can play in reducing the costs associated with stranded assets due to early coal plant retirements.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Advancing the utility of Data flow accelerators: Kokkos backend for Next Silicon

Next Silicon provides a novel reconfigurable accelerator, which is inherently a high-risk, early exploration effort. Higher readiness level for running NNSA mini-apps and initial mission applications on a data-flow accelerator Enable and demonstrate a new Kokkos back-end that directly drives an underlying dataflow accelerator

Garcia de Gonzalo, Simon Pedro [Sandia National La↗

Managing Insurance Cost and Business Risk

This fact sheet explores the role insurance and re-insurance industries play in mitigating resilience risk and offers best practices for building owners to work effectively with insurers. It also reviews the types of insurance coverages relevant to resilience as well as efforts by the insurance industry to respond to increased risk.

Commercial, Resilience, Resiliency, Financing, Ins↗

Exploring for Superhot Geothermal Targets in Magmatic Settings: Developing a Methodology

This paper presents preliminary results from a subset of work carried out as part of a multinational research project entitled DErisking Exploration for multiple geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments (DEEPEN). One objective of DEEPEN is to develop a customized approach to exploration for superhot geothermal plays in magmatic systems. This paper summarizes key geologic components, risk factors, and exploration methods for geothermal plays in magmatic settings based on a review and comparative analysis of international training sites. As part of a Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) approach to exploring for multiple play types in a single magmatic system, training data were compiled and weights assigned to various evidence layers. Two different approaches for weighting exploration datasets are described in this paper - one based on expert opinions and the other using statistical learning. Weights produced by both approaches will be input into a 3D PFA workflow that combines multiple exploration datasets to generate 3D geothermal favorability models, which will be applied to two international demonstration sites.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

De-risking superhot EGS development through 3D play fairway analysis: Methodology development and application at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

The DErisking Exploration for multiple geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments (DEEPEN) project aims to de-risk exploration of geothermal plays in magmatic systems, with a focus on superhot and supercritical geothermal systems. This article presents advancements in geoscientific assessment of superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources as part of the DEEPEN project, particularly in exploration and identification of these systems. While there exists a general consensus on key components of conventional hydrothermal systems, there has not been a prior consensus on such components for EGS, let alone superhot EGS. The DEEPEN project identified these key components for superhot EGS plays, and used them to modify the traditional geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) approach to identify favorable areas in superhot EGS plays in 3D. This was done through modeling both favorability and uncertainty separately for each key component of a superhot EGS play, incorporating diverse 3D geoscientific datasets, including geologic features, models produced from direct observations, single inversions, and joint inversions. The PFA is applied to Newberry Volcano as a form of validation. Finally, the results appear to validate the methodology, aligning with expectations derived from conceptual modeling, and highlighting the area targeted for EGS stimulation well NWG 55-29 as favorable, and suggesting potential additional areas worthy of exploration at Newberry.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The dynamic nature of risk in DOE facilities in the surveillance and maintenance program–with observations for risk communications

Here, we explore three case studies of facilities at two US Department of Energy (DOE) former nuclear weapons research and production sites—the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Hanford site—whose risk profiles have changed during their long-term management under the DOE's surveillance and maintenance (S&M) program. These case studies provide examples of the challenges faced in communicating to external stakeholders, such as federal and state regulators, local communities surrounding the site, as well as the general public, the circumstances surrounding unexpected events or the emergence/discovery of new risk-important information at historically high-risk sites. We identify common topics of importance from these case studies and suggest a taxonomy for risk communicators to use in informing the dialogues with individuals and organizations that may not be technically oriented or fully informed on the subject matter. The taxonomy is based on technical insights from the quintessential definition of risk known as the Kaplan–Garrick “risk triplet” as well as insights from regulatory guidance documents on risk communication with external stakeholders originally developed for the commercial nuclear power industry.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Quantum Nature and Mass of the Neutrino. FY20 Annual Laboratory Continuation Progress Report

Over the last 100 years we have learned a much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing experiments to measure the mass and the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recommended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time project chamber called nEXO. On a longer time scale, LLNL is also developing technology to measure the neutrino mass with tritium decay experiments. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to develop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. The Project 8 effort is solely funded by LLNL LDRD, and ends this year. A second LDRD effort is focused on repurposing cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy for eV-scale X-ray detection. This second effort, while separated from Project 8, still has scientific and technical commonalities with Project 8. The funding for this X-ray detection effort will continue for one more year. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP.We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program development dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews that lie ahead, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up an external advisory committee. The current LDRD is exploring alternatives that effect the risk profile as well as possible performance improvements. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the understanding of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. The results of this effort are reported elsewhere, but the scope of this executed at LLNL will be reported here and is primarily the engineering and construction of the LXTS experiment. The primary technical contribution of LLNL to the Project 8 concept is the formation and study of atomic tritium. Atomic tritium is necessary for Project 8 to reach the ultimate sensitivity. LLNL has considerable experience with tritium and is well suited for this crucial work. Although the focus of this work is strictly fundamental science, there has already been one significant spinoff to develop a new means to measure radio xenon in the air

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geo Thermal Cloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The project is motivated by the challenges, risks, and costs associated with geothermal exploration and production. Many processes and parameters impacting geothermal conditions are poorly understood. Diverse datasets are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions (public and proprietary; satellite, airborne surveys, vegetation/water sampling, geological, geophysical, etc.). Yet, it is not clear how to properly leverage these datasets for geothermal exploration due to an incomplete understanding of how physical processes impacting subsurface geothermal conditions are represented in these observations. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) provide great promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. Our goals and work under Phases 1 and 2 (as proposed) of this project address all these needs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A systematic strategy for estimating hERG block potency and its implications in a new cardiac safety paradigm

Introduction: hERG block potency is widely used to calculate a drug's safety margin against its torsadogenic potential. Previous studies are confounded by use of different patch clamp electrophysiology protocols and a lack of statistical quantification of experimental variability. Since the new cardiac safety paradigm being discussed by the International Council for Harmonisation promotes a tighter integration of nonclinical and clinical data for torsadogenic risk assessment, a more systematic approach to estimate the hERG block potency and safety margin is needed. Methods: A cross-industry study was performed to collect hERG data on 28 drugs with known torsadogenic risk using a standardized experimental protocol. A Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) approach was used to assess the hERG block potency of these drugs by quantifying both the inter-site and intra-site variability. A modeling and simulation study was also done to evaluate protocol-dependent changes in hERG potency estimates. Results: A systematic approach to estimate hERG block potency is established. The impact of choosing a safety margin threshold on torsadogenic risk evaluation is explored based on the posterior distributions of hERG potency estimated by this method. The modeling and simulation results suggest any potency estimate is specific to the protocol used. Discussion: This methodology can estimate hERG block potency specific to a given voltage protocol. The relationship between safety margin thresholds and torsadogenic risk predictivity suggests the threshold should be tailored to each specific context of use, and safety margin evaluation may need to be integrated with other information to form a more comprehensive risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enabling Renewable Energy While Protecting Wildlife: An Ecological Risk-Based Approach to Wind Energy Development Using Ecosystem-Based Management Values

Acceptance of wind energy development is challenged by stakeholders’ concerns about potential effects on the environment, specifically on wildlife, such as birds, bats, and (for offshore wind) marine animals, and the habitats that support them. Communities near wind energy developments are also concerned with social and economic impacts, as well as impacts on aesthetics, historical sites, and recreation and tourism. Lack of a systematic, widely accepted, and balanced approach for measuring the potential damage to wildlife, habitats, and communities continues to leave wind developers, regulators, and other stakeholders in an uncertain position. This paper explores ecological risk-based management (RBM) in wind energy development for land-based and offshore wind installations. This paper provides a framework for the adaptation of ecosystem-based management to wind energy development and examines that framework through a series of case studies and best management practices for applying risk-based principles to wind energy. Ten case studies indicate that wind farm monitoring is often driven by regulatory requirements that may not be underpinned by scientific questions. While each case applies principles of adaptive management, there is room for improvement in applying scientific principles to the data collection and analysis. Challenges and constraints for wind farm development to meet RBM framework criteria include collecting sufficient baseline and monitoring data year-round, engaging stakeholder facilitators, and bringing together large and diverse scientific teams. The RBM framework approach may provide insights for improved siting and consenting/permitting processes for regulators and their advisors, particularly in those nations where wind energy is still in the early development stages on land or at sea.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Methods for the Enhancement of Security Probabilistic Risk Assessments

The US Department of Energy is exploring the methods associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and how they could be used to enhance physical security evaluations for nuclear facilities. A brief review of both international and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission physical security assessment methods is presented. From this review, and with an understanding of the technical elements associated with a traditional nuclear safety PRA, several observations are made pertaining to where physical security analysis methods could be enhanced. These observations principally support and enhance the answers within a physical security context to the risk triplet: (1) What can go wrong? (2) What is the likelihood? and (3) What are the consequences? Finally, benefits and technical challenges toward the development of a full security PRA are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Quantitative modeling of carcinogenesis induced by single beams or mixtures of space radiations using targeted and non-targeted effects

Abstract Ionizing radiations encountered by astronauts on deep space missions produce biological damage by two main mechanisms: (1) Targeted effects (TE) due to direct traversals of cells by ionizing tracks. (2) Non-targeted effects (NTE) caused by release of signals from directly hit cells. The combination of these mechanisms generates non-linear dose response shapes, which need to be modeled quantitatively to predict health risks from space exploration. Here we used a TE + NTE model to analyze data on APC (1638N/+) mouse tumorigenesis induced by space-relevant doses of protons, 4 He, 12 C, 16 O, 28 Si or 56 Fe ions, or γ rays. A customized weighted Negative Binomial distribution was used to describe the radiation type- and dose-dependent data variability. This approach allowed detailed quantification of dose–response shapes, NTE- and TE-related model parameters, and radiation quality metrics (relative biological effectiveness, RBE, and radiation effects ratio, RER, relative to γ rays) for each radiation type. Based on the modeled responses for each radiation type, we predicted the tumor yield for a Mars-mission-relevant mixture of these radiations, using the recently-developed incremental effect additivity (IEA) synergy theory. The proposed modeling approach can enhance current knowledge about quantification of space radiation quality effects, dose response shapes, and ultimately the health risks for astronauts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗