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NASA NTRS2001

Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

Green, Mavis F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Simon, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA)

In 2013, the Human Research Program at NASA began developing a new confinement analog specifically for conducting research to investigate the effects of confinement on the human system. The HERA (Human Exploration Research Analog) habitat has been used for both 7 and 14 day missions to date to examine and mitigate exploration risks to enable safe, reliable and productive human space exploration. This presentation will describe how the Flight Analogs Project developed the HERA facility and the infrastructure to suit investigator requirements for confinement research and in the process developed a new approach to analog utilization and a new state of the art analog facility. Details regarding HERA operations will be discussed including specifics on the mission simulation utilized for the current 14-day campaign, the specifics of the facility (total volume, overall size, hardware), and the capabilities available to researchers. The overall operational philosophy, mission fidelity including timeline, schedule pressures and cadence, and development and implementation of mission stressors will be presented. Research conducted to date in the HERA has addressed risks associated with behavioral health and performance, human physiology, as well as human factors. This presentation will conclude with a discussion of future research plans for the HERA, including infrastructure improvements and additional research capabilities planned for the upcoming 30-day missions in 2016.

Neigut, J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Engineered Yeast to Test Risks for Human Exploration of the Lunar Surface

Jessica W. Chau, Natalie N. Ball, Aditya Hindupur, Sandra T. Vu, Jennifer Gil Acevedo, Lauren C. Liddell, Chinmayee Govinda Raj, Gentry, Sergio R. Santa Maria, A. Mark Settles Crewed exploration of the Moon carries risks of long duration exposure to reduced gravity and to deep space radiation. The Lunar Explorer Instrument for space biology Applications (LEIA) investigates the effects of increased radiation and reduced gravity on yeast viability and growth in a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) surface mission to the south polar region. LEIA conducts yeast genetics experiments to quantify growth, metabolism, and synthetic biology-enabled production of human nutrients, while taking real time measurements of biologically relevant radiation exposure on the lunar surface. We have engineered beta-carotene producing yeast strains to test the importance of selected DNA damage repair and reactive oxygen species (ROS) defense pathways in mitigating cellular damage from lunar surface radiation. Carotenoids are important dietary antioxidants, and beta-carotene is pro-vitamin A, which is needed for vision and immune function. Carotenoids are sensitive to ROS produced by ionizing radiation and NASA is testing on-demand production of carotenoids from yeast in the BioNutrients space flight experiments. In LEIA, we test the effects of deep space on carotenoid yield in engineered yeast strains. The LEIA team uses CRISPR-Cas9 to engineer yeast to express carotenoids as well as to generate loss-of-function mutations. We are generating mutations in the RAD51 DNA damage repair locus and three genes that function to reduce oxidative damage to the cell: SOD1, SOD2, and TSA1. These strains are tested for carotenoid production using microfluidics and LED spectroscopy to allow remote sensing of cellular growth and carotenoid levels. Keywords: synthetic biology, oxidative stress tolerance, biosensors, space radiation, beyond low Earth orbit, lunar surface, CRISPR/Cas9, gene editing, desiccation, carotenoids.

synthetic biology↗

NASA NTRS2000

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

James, John T.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Abstract Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk‐aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

Sherwood, S. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global 3D Data Visualization and Analysis Platform with Advanced Machine Learning Capabilities in Support of Lunar Exploration

Introduction: The science goals for NASA’s Artemis program include: a) Understanding the character and origin of lunar polar volatiles, b) Conducting experimental science in the lunar environment and c) Investigating and mitigating exploration risks. The permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the Lunar south pole are expected to host large quantities of water-ice and volatiles that are important for sustainable Lunar exploration. There are several missions such as onboard Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO: Korean name Danuri) with onboard ShadowCam camera, Astrobotic Peregrine Mission One [4], and other efforts underway to obtain high resolution topographic, minerals, volatiles and other information on the moon. We envision a need in immediate future for platforms to integrate these data sets, provide rendering and visualization capabilities in the context of a 3D Lunar globe for easier information access and analysis. NASA's Celestial Mapping System (CMS) is developed to address the need for 3D tools for planetary science investigations, mission planning, in-situ operations, in a 3D-first design constructed around a unified view of a planetary globe. At present CMS provides many critical functionalities that include: 1) equipment planning and optimized placement on Lunar surface 2) line-of-sight (LOS) analysis 3) powerful measurement tools based on 3D terrain with realistic 3D models to represent rovers, astronauts and equipment 4) visualization of derived mapping products (e.g. resource maps), and 5) a data engine for hosting new observations that are not available in other contemporary lunar data tools. Planetary Data Ingestion: CMS can consume and analyze data from locally hosted and external third party sources. It is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) data and file standards and currently integrates datasets from the Astrogeology Science Center of USGS. This includes global and local data acquired from NASA (LRO, Clementine, Lunar Orbiter) and JAXA (SELENE/Kaguya), with capability of integrating more datasets. In addition, users can specify other WMS-hosted data endpoints, which CMS can then query and stream data from automatically. To set-up an automated process for ingestion and accurate rendering, visualization and analysis of external 3rd party planetary datasets within CMS, we initiated the process of ingesting unique dataset of super-enhanced images of the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles which were produced by the Hyper-effective nOise Removal U-net Software (HORUS) tool. This tool was developed to enhance the extremely low-light images of the interior of PSRs and provide the ability to see within these regions at and discern surface features (i.e. boulders and craters) down to 3 meters in size. We focused on the Nobile region on the Lunar south pole, selected site for VIPER mission and stitched several images to create a high-resolution map within one of the PSR of Nobile crater. Figure 1 shows the dark PSR zone form the original NAC layer of LRO as the base layer (left image) and the illuminated areas within that crater (center) which was created by ingesting and merging several of HORUS generated images. At present we employ a semi-automated process to ensure spatial accuracy and merger of several overlapping zones. However, we are in the process of completely automating this process by employing AI based techniques that would rank, sort, and stack the images based on their information density. The georectification of the images would employ selected features. Analysis on Ingested Planetary Datasets: Once an external planetary data-set is successfully ingested, georectified and merged seamlessly as a data-layer; CMS’ numerous analysis tools can be used on this data. A Line of Sight (LOS) tool has been developed for CMS which analyzes terrain profiles and obstructions to determine visibility for remote observers. Figure 1 (right image) shows the viewshed analysis on the same PSR in the Nobile region. The yellow pin shows the observer location outside the PSR. The yellow area shows the visible part of PSR. The obstructed area with no visibility for the observer is shown in red. The Measurements tool allows the user to take area and distance measurements of features on the terrain using various shapes. Measurement type can be specified in a number of ways: Line, Path, Polygon, Circle, Ellipse, Square, Rectangle or Freehand. Once the shape is specified, elevation information can then be extracted along each of these shapes. Figure 2 (left) shows the measurements performed on a crater n illuminated PSR in Nobile region. The equipment placement tool allows the user to place a 3D equipment model at a desired location and analyze its coverage area. The equipment placement tool is coupled with LOS to determine the coverage. Figure 2 (right) shows an equipment placed on the Lunar terrain and it’s coverage area. The red rays are blocked sight lines and the green rays are non-obstructed sight lines with the cyan lines showing the point of intersection with the terrain. More details are provided in the video demonstrations in Reference 5. Overcoming Polar Distortions: 3D geospatial applications exhibit significant distortions in polar imagery due to several reasons: 1) distortions in the source imagery, 2) incompatible tessellation algorithms at the poles, and 3) map projections. We are leveraging new tessellation algorithms and reprojecting data using projections that are better suited for Lunar poles. The goal is to seamlessly switch to polar projections while maintaining 3D view and navigation.

Maps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global 3D Data Visualization and Analysis Platform With Advanced Machine Learning Capabilities in Support of Lunar Exploration

Introduction: The science goals for NASA’s Artemis program include: a) Understanding the character and origin of lunar polar volatiles, b) Conducting experimental science in the lunar environment and c) Investigating and mitigating exploration risks [1]. The permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the Lunar south pole are expected to host large quantities of water-ice and volatiles that are important for sustainable Lunar exploration [2]. There are several missions such as onboard Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO: Korean name Danuri) with onboard ShadowCam camera [3], Astrobotic Peregrine Mission One [4], and other efforts underway to obtain high resolution topographic, minerals, volatiles and other information on the moon. We envision a need in immediate future for platforms to integrate these data sets, provide rendering and visualization capabilities in the context of a 3D Lunar globe for easier information access and analysis. NASA's Celestial Mapping System (CMS) [5] is developed to address the need for 3D tools for planetary science investigations, mission planning, in-situ operations, in a 3D-first design constructed around a unified view of a planetary globe. At present CMS provides many critical functionalities that include: 1) equipment planning and optimized placement on Lunar surface 2) line-of-sight (LOS) analysis 3) powerful measurement tools based on 3D terrain with realistic 3D models to represent rovers, astronauts and equipment 4) visualization of derived mapping products (e.g. resource maps), and 5) a data engine for hosting new observations that are not available in other contemporary lunar data tools [5, 7]. Planetary Data Ingestion: CMS can consume and analyze data from locally hosted and external third party sources. It is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) data and file standards and currently integrates datasets from the Astrogeology Science Center of USGS. This includes global and local data acquired from NASA (LRO, Clementine, Lunar Orbiter) and JAXA (SELENE/Kaguya), with capability of integrating more datasets. In addition, users can specify other WMS-hosted data endpoints, which CMS can then query and stream data from automatically. To set-up an automated process for ingestion and accurate rendering, visualization and analysis of external 3rd party planetary datasets within CMS, we initiated the process of ingesting unique dataset of super-enhanced images of the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles which were produced by the Hyper-effective nOise Removal U-net Software (HORUS) tool [8]. This tool was developed to enhance the extremely low-light images of the interior of PSRs and provide the ability to see within these regions at and discern surface features (i.e. boulders and craters) down to 3 meters in size. We focused on the Nobile region on the Lunar south pole, selected site for VIPER mission and stitched several images to create a high-resolution map within one of the PSR of Nobile crater. Figure 1 shows the dark PSR zone form the original NAC layer of LRO as the base layer (left image) and the illuminated areas within that crater (center) which was created by ingesting and merging several of HORUS generated images. At present we employ a semi-automated process to ensure spatial accuracy and merger of several overlapping zones. However, we are in the process of completely automating this process by employing AI based techniques that would rank, sort, and stack the images based on their information density. The georectification of the images would employ selected features. Analysis on Ingested Planetary Datasets: Once an external planetary data-set is successfully ingested, georectified and merged seamlessly as a data-layer; CMS’ numerous analysis tools can be used on this data. A Line of Sight (LOS) tool has been developed for CMS which analyzes terrain profiles and obstructions to determine visibility for remote observers [5,6]. Figure 1 (right image) shows the viewshed analysis on the same PSR in the Nobile region. The yellow pin shows the observer location outside the PSR. The yellow area shows the visible part of PSR. The obstructed area with no visibility for the observer is shown in red. The Measurements tool allows the user to take area and distance measurements of features on the terrain using various shapes. Measurement type can be specified in a number of ways: Line, Path, Polygon, Circle, Ellipse, Square, Rectangle or Freehand. Once the shape is specified, elevation information can then be extracted along each of these shapes. Figure 2 (left) shows the measurements performed on a crater n illuminated PSR in Nobile region. The equipment placement tool allows the user to place a 3D equipment model at a desired location and analyze its coverage area. The equipment placement tool is coupled with LOS to determine the coverage. Figure 2 (right) shows an equipment placed on the Lunar terrain and it’s coverage area. The red rays are blocked sight lines and the green rays are non-obstructed sight lines with the cyan lines showing the point of intersection with the terrain. More details are provided in the video demonstrations in Reference 5. Overcoming Polar Distortions: 3D geospatial applications exhibit significant distortions in polar imagery due to several reasons: 1) distortions in the source imagery, 2) incompatible tessellation algorithms at the poles, and 3) map projections. We are leveraging new tessellation algorithms and reprojecting data using projections that are better suited for Lunar poles. The goal is to seamlessly switch to polar projections while maintaining 3D view and navigation.

Maps↗

NASA NTRS1993

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Buchbinder, Ben↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evolving the SP-100 reactor in order to boost large payloads to GEO and to low lunar orbit via nuclear-electric propulsion

In striving to reduce exploration cost and exploration risks, a crucial aspect of the plans is program continuity, i.e., the continuing application of a given technology over a long period so that experience will accumulate from extended testing here on Earth and from a diversity of applications in space. An integrated view needs to be formed of the missions SEI will carry out, near term as well as far, and of the ways in which these missions can mutually support one another. Near term programs should be so constituted as to provide for the long term missions both the enabling technologies and the accumulation of experience they need. In achieving this, missions in Earth orbit should both evolve and show the technologies crucial to long term missions on the lunar surface, and the program for the lunar labs should evolve and show the enabling technologies for exploration of the surface of Mars and for flights of human beings to Mars and return. In the near term, the program for the Space Station should be directed and funded to develop and demonstrate the solar Brayton power plant that will be most useful as the power generator for the SP-100 nuclear reactor.

English, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evolving the SP-100 reactor in order to boost large payloads to GEO and to low lunar orbit via nuclear-electric propulsion

In striving to reduce exploration cost and exploration risks, a crucial aspect of the plans is program continuity, i.e., the continuing application of a given technology over a long period so that experience will accumulate from extended testing here on earth and from a diversity of applications in space. An integrated view needs to be formed of the missions SEI will carry out, near term as well as far, and of the ways in which these missions can mutually support one another. Near term programs should be so constituted as to provide for the long term missions both the enabling technologies and the accumulation of experience they need. In achieving this, missions in earth orbit should both evolve and show the technologies crucial to long term missions on the lunar surfaces, and the program for the lunar labs should evolve and show the enabling technologies for exploration of the surface of Mars and for flights of human beings to Mars and return. In the near term, the program for the Space Station should be directed and funded to develop and demonstrate the solar Brayton power plant that will be most useful as the power generator for the SP-100 nuclear reactor.

English, Robert E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Geothermal Potential of Great Basin Sub-Regions: Preprint

The INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems (INGENIOUS) project aims to discover new, economically viable hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region by building on previous work in play fairway analysis and machine learning. A key objective of this project is to develop an exploration workflow to reduce geothermal exploration risks for hidden geothermal systems. A single preliminary play fairway workflow was developed from the assessment of the regional INGENIOUS geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets. This workflow provided new preliminary predictive geothermal fairway maps for the INGENIOUS study area, which encompasses most of Nevada, western Utah, southern Idaho, southeastern Oregon, and easternmost California. However, a recent study (incorporating machine learning techniques) of a portion of Nevada identified four geologic domains and determined that the relative importance of individual datasets or features as indicators of geothermal potential may differ across these domains. The INGENIOUS study area includes a much larger and more geologically diverse region; therefore, additional geologic domains or sub-regions are expected. To assess the sub-regions in the INGENIOUS study area, principal component analysis and k-means clustering were applied. Preliminary results indicate that the INGENIOUS regional data cluster into groups that relate to different geologic domains in the Great Basin region. These include domains such as the Walker Lane, extensional western Great Basin region, broad lower strain region in the eastern Great Basin of western Utah and eastern Nevada, Quaternary volcanic fields, and the area adjacent to the Snake River Plain. These clusters are assessed to determine the key geologic drivers of the identified clusters. Understanding this variability can provide key insights for the exploration and characterization of hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region and could indicate the need to develop multiple geothermal conceptual models and play fairway workflows for the INGENIOUS study area.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Geothermal Potential of Great Basin Sub-Regions

exploration↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling study of deep direct use geothermal on the West Virginia university campus-morgantown, WV

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use (DDU) system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. Consequently, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided only the single permeability model is needed; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the prediction, therefore, heterogeneity is included in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis will be used for further economic studies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN: Newberry Volcano MT and Gravity Data - 2022 and 2023 Acquisition and Processing

As part of DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments), a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) was conducted at Newberry Volcano in Central Oregon for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). For use in this PFA, combined full tensor broadband magnetotelluric (MT) and gravity data were acquired, processed, and inverted by Enthalpion Energy LLC (Enthalpion) with support from NREL staff. The data collection efforts took place from June 19th to July 24. Data were collected with the goal of gaining an improved understanding of the South Flank and the extent of the magma chamber. This GDR submission includes the raw data, single inversions, joint inversions, resolution matrices, and a report on these processes. More detailed information about the folder structure of the datasets included in this submission may be found on pages 94-97 of Magnetotelluric and Gravity Survey Report.pdf below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗