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Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI

Regulation compliant AI for fusion: explainable image-based feedback control of divertor detachment in DIII-D tokamak

While artificial intelligence (AI) has been promising for fusion control, its inherent black-box nature will make compliant implementation in regulatory environments a challenge. This study implements and validates a real-time AI-enabled linear and interpretable control system for successful divertor detachment control with the DIII-D lower divertor camera. Using D 2 gas, we demonstrate successful feedback divertor detachment control with a mean absolute difference of 2% from the target for both detachment and reattachment. This automatic training and linear processing framework can be extended to any image-based diagnostic for future fusion reactors.

computer vision

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Kraiss, F.

Barriers to adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies in nuclear power

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) technologies offer unique opportunities to transform nuclear plant operations and power generation. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also within work processes, the integration of people with technology and most importantly, the business case. The application of this new technology can help simplify complex problems and produce more effective decision-making, making nuclear power safer, more efficient, and more economically viable in the current energy market. Nonetheless, there are potential barriers to its adoption that must be overcome. The purpose of this paper is to categorize, review, and discuss barriers to AI/ML adoption within the nuclear power industry, with a focus on existing commercial reactors. Unique considerations for advanced reactors are also offered. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of the historical, technical, and business barriers that the industry faces, as well as stakeholder readiness, and end-user acceptance. We underscore the importance of user experience and offer potential solutions in overcoming each barrier. These include provisions for easier plant data access, a friendly regulatory environment, and investment in user trust and explainable AI.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

SetBERT: the deep learning platform for contextualized embeddings and explainable predictions from high-throughput sequencing

MOTIVATION: High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is a modern sequencing technology used to profile microbiomes by sequencing thousands of short genomic fragments from the microorganisms within a given sample. This technology presents a unique opportunity for artificial intelligence to comprehend the underlying functional relationships of microbial communities. However, due to the unstructured nature of HTS data, nearly all computational models are limited to processing DNA sequences individually. This limitation causes them to miss out on key interactions between microorganisms, significantly hindering our understanding of how these interactions influence the microbial communities as a whole. Furthermore, most computational methods rely on post-processing of samples which could inadvertently introduce unintentional protocol-specific bias. RESULTS: Addressing these concerns, we present SetBERT, a robust pre-training methodology for creating generalized deep learning models for processing HTS data to produce contextualized embeddings and be fine-tuned for downstream tasks with explainable predictions. By leveraging sequence interactions, we show that SetBERT significantly outperforms other models in taxonomic classification with genus-level classification accuracy of 95%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SetBERT is able to accurately explain its predictions autonomously by confirming the biological-relevance of taxa identified by the model. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/setbert. SetBERT may be used through the q2-deepdna QIIME 2 plugin whose source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/q2-deepdna.

Ludwig, David W

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence

Measurement of the 252 Cf ⁢(sf) prompt fission neutron spectrum utilizing 12 C ⁡(𝑛, 𝑛) and 9 Be ⁢(𝑛, 𝑛) neutron scattering reference measurements

The 252 Cf spontaneous fission (sf), prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) is a fundamental quantity for nuclear physics measurements of neutron-emitting reactions. This energy distribution of neutrons emitted from fission has been considered a neutron data standard for decades and has been utilized as a reference for neutron detection efficiency, validation of Monte Carlo simulations, benchmarking of dosimetry standards, and more. A significant portion of the global collection of nuclear data on neutron-induced reactions is correlated with the 252 Cf ⁢(sf) PFNS. Despite the reliance on this quantity by the nuclear physics community, the historical collection of 252 Cf PFNS measurements display systematic disagreements that are not understood or easily explained. These experimental discrepancies could potentially bias the 252 Cf PFNS Standard evaluation. On top of this, these past experiments frequently employed correlated experimental measurement or analysis methods. The artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML)-informed californium chi-nuclear data experiment (AIACHNE) project was formed to (a) investigate these discrepancies utilizing AI/ML methods to identify outlying regions of literature data, assign these regions to features of the experiment itself, and perform an improved evaluation of the 252 Cf PFNS and (b) perform a new experimental measurement of this quantity designed to improve upon the existing literature database. Here, in this work, we report on the AIACHNE 252 Cf PFNS experiment utilizing a new analysis method uncorrelated with all previous measurements: neutron efficiency determinations based on elastic neutron scattering on 12 C and 9 Be . This new method provides an independent test of the existing literature data and evaluation of the 252 Cf ⁢(sf) PFNS. The method is described with detailed covariance quantification procedures, as well as a direct discussion of the sources of uncertainty described as requirements in the “Templates” series of papers. The 252 Cf ⁢(sf) PFNS reported in this work agrees well with the overall shape of the existing standard PFNS evaluation as well as many literature measurements, thus verifying the current evaluation utilizing new techniques. However, the results suggest that there are deficiencies in the angle-differential 12 C and 9 Be ⁢(𝑛, 𝑛) evaluated nuclear data, which produce unphysical structures in the reported result. While these structures are relatively minor, they become obvious because of the high statistical precision of the data and the expected smooth continuity of the 252 Cf ⁢(sf) PFNS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Operations on Graphical Models with Plates

This paper explains how graphical models, for instance Bayesian or Markov networks, can be extended to model problems in data analysis and learning. This provides a unified framework that combines lessons learned from the artificial intelligence, statistical and connectionist communities. This also offers a set of principles for developing a software generator for data analysis, whereby a learning or discovery system can be compiled from specifications. Many of the popular learning algorithms can be compiled in this way from graphical specifications. While in a sense this paper is a multidisciplinary review of learning, the main contribution here is the presentation of the material within the unifying framework of graphical models, and the observation that, as a result, the process of developing learning algorithms can be partly automated.

Buntine, Wray L.

Beyond Fair: Engagement, Data Usability, and Open Community Productivity through the NASA Open Science Data Repository

The FAIR principle (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) governs the storage and sharing of NASA space biology and health data[1]. These guiding principles maximize reuse of data and the reproducibility of scientific findings. The NASA Open Science Data Repository (OSDR; an expansion of NASA GeneLab) was built on the FAIR principles and houses over 500 studies and close to 1000 datasets from decades of space life sciences experiments. OSDR embodies the FAIR principles through data governance that includes mediated, embargoed, and fully open access data. The FAIR data governance principles were recently proposed to be expanded to encompass a FAIREST framework for assessing research data repositories (FAIR + Engagement, Social connections, and Trust)[2]. FAIREST emphasizes the importance of data repositories engaging with the scientific community and gaining the trust of researchers regarding data quality. Trust also refers to the TRUST principles developed for assessment of digital repositories: Transparency, Responsibility, User Focus, Sustainability, Technology[3]. We present the “Open Science for Life in Space” Analysis Working Groups (AWGs) as evidence regarding the power of engagement, social connections, and trust which has enhanced OSDR’s capabilities and productivity. AWG members engage in two main activities. One, members provide feedback on OSDR scientific standards for data ingestion, curation, and reuse (study, subject and assay metadata; processing pipelines; dataset formats and uniformed structures for machine-readability). Two, AWG members collaborate to mine-reuse OSDR data to conduct scientific analysis. With nearly 800 active members, the AWGs have resulted in 32 publications re-using OSDR data and contributed many papers in two major special issues in Cell (2020) and Nature (2024). AWGs also serve as networking groups, facilitate social connections between researchers at all levels of experience, and also have a social online ‘Forum’ used to keep members informed on projects and opportunities. This community-centric, productive, and trustworthy data culture has resulted in a broader effect with international space agencies, academics, and the commercial space sector wanting to submit their data to OSDR. Ten studies of Inspiration 4 data were recently publicly released by OSDR, as were some JAXA human data. Coming up soon in OSDR are data submissions from the European Space Agency, Virgin Galactic PIs, and SpaceX Polaris Dawn. A major benefit of OSDR is the array of standardized and uniformly formatted data (which was developed through AWG member consensus), from which visualization tools, analysis tools, and machine learning models can be built or trained. This talk will cover the Multi-Study Visualization Tool, the Environmental Data Application, RadLab, and a UCSF-NSF funded knowledge graph biomedical health discovery tool ‘SPOKE’ currently being integrated with OSDR. OSDR also provides training programs in bioinformatics and machine learning to improve the scientific community’s awareness of data availability and to boost their ability to perform data analysis. The increasing engagement of the scientific community and the public with technologies powered by artificial intelligence (AI) heightens the need for data analysis to be transparent. The AI for Life in Space initiative leverages the data products provided in OSDR to train AI models, with an emphasis on explainable and trustworthy AI, which would not be possible without FAIR data and metadata. Overall, here we will demonstrate the importance for NASA life sciences data repositories to adhere to the FAIREST framework, by providing examples and success stories from different aspects of OSDR.

data

Testing a Neural Network Accelerator on a High-Altitude Balloon

The cognitive communications project has been working to re d machine learning approaches to support their deployment and sustained use in space environments. It has historically been difficult to implement such techniques on space platforms, however, due to the computational requirements they levy onto general-purpose avionics hardware. While technologies exist to accelerate the computation of aspects of neural networks, such platforms have not historically been deployed in space environments. Given that testing payloads in such environments can be both cost- and time-prohibitive, high-altitude balloons can be used as a way to approximate a space environment at a much lower cost, thus providing a cost-effective way in which to test newer approaches to hardware acceleration for artificial intelligence which may be deployed onto spacecraft more directly. This paper describes a successful test of a commercial off- the-shelf neural network accelerator on a high-altitude balloon. It begins by explaining our selection criteria when evaluating different commercial neural network acceleration techniques: primary considerations include size, weight, and power (SWaP) as well as ease of integration. Next, the paper describes the development and implementation of an experimental flight test platform: flight and ground components are discussed. Afterward, the paper discusses the experimental payload itself: this includes the experimental procedure as well as the specific image and method used for testing. Finally, the paper concludes with an evaluation of both the experimental device tested at altitude as well as the flight test framework itself, identifying how the existing platform can be used to continue tes g commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions for acceleration.

Clark, Gilbert

Workflow Provenance in the Computing Continuum for Responsible, Trustworthy, and Energy-Efficient AI

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more pervasive in our society, it is crucial to develop, deploy, and assess Responsible and Trustworthy AI (RTAI) models, i.e., those that consider not only accuracy but also other aspects, such as explainability, fairness, and energy efficiency. Workflow provenance data have historically enabled critical capabilities towards RTAI. Provenance data derivation paths contribute to responsible workflows through transparency in tracking artifacts and resource consumption. Provenance data are well-known for their trustworthiness helping explainability, reproducibility, and accountability. However, there are complex challenges to achieve RTAI, which are further complicated by the heterogeneous infrastructure in the computing continuum (Edge-Cloud-HPC) used to develop and deploy models. As a result, a significant research and development gap remains between workflow provenance data management and RTAI. In this paper, we present a vision of the pivotal role of workflow provenance in supporting RTAI and discuss related challenges. We present a schematic view between RTAI and provenance, and highlight open research directions.

Santos Souza, Renan

Will machines ever think

Artificial Intelligence research has come under fire for failing to fulfill its promises. A growing number of AI researchers are reexamining the bases of AI research and are challenging the assumption that intelligent behavior can be fully explained as manipulation of symbols by algorithms. Three recent books -- Mind over Machine (H. Dreyfus and S. Dreyfus), Understanding Computers and Cognition (T. Winograd and F. Flores), and Brains, Behavior, and Robots (J. Albus) -- explore alternatives and open the door to new architectures that may be able to learn skills.

Denning, P. J.

Data compression in digitized lines

The problem of data compression is very important in digital photogrammetry, computer assisted cartography, and GIS/LIS. In addition, it is also applicable in many other fields such as computer vision, image processing, pattern recognition, and artificial intelligence. Consequently, there are many algorithms available to solve this problem but none of them are considered to be satisfactory. In this paper, a new method of finding critical points in a digitized curve is explained. This technique, based on the normalized symmetric scattered matrix, is good for both critical points detection and data compression. In addition, the critical points detected by this algorithm are compared with those by zero-crossings.

Thapa, Khagendra

Reactive control and reasoning assistance for scientific laboratory instruments

Scientific laboratory instruments that are involved in chemical or physical sample identification frequently require substantial human preparation, attention, and interactive control during their operation. Successful real-time analysis of incoming data that supports such interactive control requires: (1) a clear recognition of variance of the data from expected results; and (2) rapid diagnosis of possible alternative hypotheses which might explain the variance. Such analysis then aids in decisions about modifying the experiment protocol, as well as being a goal itself. This paper reports on a collaborative project at the NASA Ames Research Center between artificial intelligence researchers and planetary microbial ecologists. Our team is currently engaged in developing software that autonomously controls science laboratory instruments and that provides data analysis of the real-time data in support of dynamic refinement of the experiment control. the first two instruments to which this technology has been applied are a differential thermal analyzer (DTA) and a gas chromatograph (GC). coupled together, they form a new geochemicstry and microbial analysis tool that is capable of rapid identification of the organiz and mineralogical constituents in soils. The thermal decomposition of the minerals and organics, and the attendance release of evolved gases, provides data about the structural and molecular chemistry of the soil samples.

Thompson, David E.

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES