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The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pre-exascale accelerated application development: The ORNL Summit experience

High-performance computing (HPC) increasingly relies on heterogeneous architectures to achieve higher performance. In the Oak Ridge Leadership Facility (OLCF), Oak Ridge, TN, USA, this trend continues as its latest supercomputer, Summit, entered production in early 2019. The combination of IBM POWER9 CPU and NVIDIA V100 GPU, along with a fast NVLink2 interconnect and other latest technologies, pushes system performance to a new height and breaks the exascale barrier by certain measures. Due to Summit's powerful GPUs and much higher GPU–CPU ratio, offloading to accelerators becomes a requirement for any application, which intends to effectively use the system. To facilitate navigating a complex landscape of competing heterogeneous architectures, a collection of applications from a wide spectrum of scientific domains is selected for early adoption on Summit. In this article, the experience and lessons learned are summarized, in the hope of providing useful guidance to address new programming challenges, such as scalability, performance portability, and software maintainability, for future application development efforts on heterogeneous HPC systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HPC I/O innovations in the exascale era

As high performance computing architecture evolves to deliver ever-increasing performance, the middleware tools also need to adapt in order for applications to better use these higher-performance features. Here, the Adaptable Input Output System (ADIOS), which provides scalable IO performance for exascale HPC applications is one such middleware. During the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), key portions of the ADIOS environment were adapted to respond to ongoing developments in exascale computing and the stresses and opportunities inherent in those changes. This paper examines those changes and where appropriate compares them to pre-exascale implementations.

ADIOS↗

ExaWorks software development kit: a robust and scalable collection of interoperable workflows technologies

Scientific discovery increasingly requires executing heterogeneous scientific workflows on high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. Heterogeneous workflows contain different types of tasks (e.g., simulation, analysis, and learning) that need to be mapped, scheduled, and launched on different computing. That requires a software stack that enables users to code their workflows and automate resource management and workflow execution. Currently, there are many workflow technologies with diverse levels of robustness and capabilities, and users face difficult choices of software that can effectively and efficiently support their use cases on HPC machines, especially when considering the latest exascale platforms. We contributed to addressing this issue by developing the ExaWorks Software Development Kit (SDK). The SDK is a curated collection of workflow technologies engineered following current best practices and specifically designed to work on HPC platforms. We present our experience with (1) curating those technologies, (2) integrating them to provide users with new capabilities, (3) developing a continuous integration platform to test the SDK on DOE HPC platforms, (4) designing a dashboard to publish the results of those tests, and (5) devising an innovative documentation platform to help users to use those technologies. Our experience details the requirements and the best practices needed to curate workflow technologies, and it also serves as a blueprint for the capabilities and services that DOE will have to offer to support a variety of scientific heterogeneous workflows on the newly available exascale HPC platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information

In May 2025, nearly 700 participants from all around the world coalesced at 10 regional nodes and a few satellite nodes to take part in a global hackathon of kilometer-scale (horizontal grid spacing < 10 km) regional and global Earth system models. Exciting science is emerging from these efforts, ranging across novel model analysis, new ways of integrating with satellite data, and emulation with machine learning. New technologies were trialed that enable the community to work in new and complementary ways to democratize access to global information at a local scale from a set of the world’s highest-resolution climate models. The hackathon demonstrated how exascale data can be organized to be accessible to anyone. Fundamentally, the community could apply these techniques and technologies to move toward more participative models for coproduction and delivery of diverse sources of climate information for climate scientists and citizens alike.

Climate models↗

2.3.3.01- xSDK-Multiprecision Final Report for Subcontract Partner KIT

The xSDK Multiprecision effort as focus effort of the ECP project xSDK focused on the development, deployment, and dissemination of mixed precision functionality in the US Exascale Computing Project. Over a duration of four years, KIT as subcontract to LLNL provided technology development, functionality deployment, integration support, and consulting on mixed precision functionality. The subcontract was modified several times over the project duration. All deliverables of the subcontract have been completed. This final report accumulates the quarterly progress reports and most significant contributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

xSDK Multiprecision (Final Report)

The xSDK Multiprecision effort as focus effort of the ECP project xSDK focused on the development, deployment, and dissemination of mixed precision functionality in the US Exascale Computing Project. Over a duration of four years, KIT as subcontract to LLNL provided technology development, functionality deployment, integration support, and consulting on mixed precision functionality. The subcontract was modified several times over the project duration. All deliverables of the subcontract have been completed. This final report accumulates the quarterly progress reports and most significant contributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advancing Quantum Many-Body GW Calculations on Exascale Supercomputing Platforms

Advanced ab initio materials simulations face growing challenges as increasing systems and phenomena complexity requires higher accuracy, driving up computational demands. Quantum many-body GW methods are state-of-the-art for treating electronic excited states and couplings but often hindered due to the costly numerical complexity. Here, we present innovative implementations of advanced GW methods within the BerkeleyGW package, enabling large-scale simulations on Frontier and Aurora exascale platforms. Our approach demonstrates exceptional versatility for complex heterogeneous systems with up to 17,574 atoms, along with achieving true performance portability across GPU architectures. We demonstrate excellent strong and weak scaling to thousands of nodes, reaching double-precision core-kernel performance of 1.069 ExaFLOP/s on Frontier (9,408 nodes) and 707.52 PetaFLOP/s on Aurora (9,600 nodes), corresponding to 59.45% and 48.79% of peak, respectively. Our work demonstrates a breakthrough in utilizing exascale computing for quantum materials simulations, delivering unprecedented predictive capabilities for rational designs of future quantum technologies.

Zhang, Benran [University of Southern California, ↗

2.3.3.01- xSDK-Batched Final Report for Subcontract Partner KIT

The xSDK batched effort as focus effort of the ECP project xSDK focused on the development, deployment, and dissemination of batched functionality in the US Exascale Computing Project. Over a duration of almost three years, KIT as subcontract to LLNL provided technology development, functionality deployment, integration support, and consulting on batched iterative solvers and batched preconditioners. This final report accumulates the quarterly progress reports and most significant contributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Softwarized Federations of Science Instruments with Edge-Continuum Containers

Significant expansion of capabilities of DOE science complex of supercomputers, instruments and networks is expected as powerful experimental facilities, exascale computers and terabit networks are added. Combined with the advances in edge and cloud computing technologies, DOE science users now have the promise of unprecedented execution of complex, continuum workflows, namely, small and latency-sensitive computations at the edge and site, massive computations at remote HPC systems, and everything in between on the cloud. But, bringing this capability to the science user requires overcoming the overwhelming complexity of forming the federations of systems, and efficiently and effectively orchestrating the workflows while ensuring high utilization of the expensive facilities. Current manual configuration of the federated systems simply will not scale, since the coordination across sites may take weeks to months, often leading to under-utilized and hard-to-diagnose compositions. A powerful, composable software stack will be developed to (i) wrap the systems so that federations can be composed fast in software, and (ii) containerize computations to be orchestrated across the edge, site, cloud and HPC resources.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗

The Multiphysics on Advanced Platforms Project

In 2015, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory started development of next-generation multiphysics simulation capabilities for the National Nuclear Security Administration under the Advanced Technologies Development and Mitigation (ATDM) element of the Advanced Simulation and Computing program in collaboration with the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). A key driver for this effort across the NNSA tri-lab was the emergence of advanced high performance computing (HPC) architectures based on heterogeneous compute capabilities, including GPU based systems, as part of the national drive toward exascale computing platforms at multiple Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Developing a multiphysics code capable of meeting the various simulation needs of the NNSA as defined by the current generation of integrated codes (or ICs), initially developed as part of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program beginning in 1996, and able to scale to the current 100 petaflop class pre-exascale systems, as well the forthcoming exaflop class computers, is a daunting challenge. To accomplish this ambitious goal, LLNL has embraced two key themes: use of high-order numerical methods and a modular approach to code development. The LLNL next generation effort is organized under the Multi-Physics on Advanced Platforms Project (MAPP). A foundational component of MAPP is the Axom computer science (CS) toolkit which provides infrastructure for the development of modular, performance portable, multi-physics application codes. MARBL is a next-generation application code built on the Axom base to address the modeling needs of the high energy density physics (HEDP) community for simulating high-explosive, magnetic or laser driven experiments such as inertial confinement fusion (ICF), pulsed-power magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD), equation of state (EOS) and material strength studies as part of the NNSA’s stockpile stewardship program (SSP).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Ristra Project: FY20/21 Milestone Report

The ASC Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) sub-program was established in 2014 to develop new simulation tools operating on exascale-class computers to serve NNSA (see Appendix B). Over the course of ATDM, LANL management have set a strategy for exascale-class application codes that follows two supportive and mutually risk-mitigating paths: evolution for established production integrated design codes (IDCs) – with a strong pedigree within the user community – based upon existing programming paradigms(MPI+X); and a new start ATDM project, Ristra, a high-risk/high-reward push for a next-generation multi-physics, multi-scale simulation toolkit based on emerging advanced programming systems(with an initial focus on data-flow task-based models exemplified by Legion). The role of Ristra as the high-risk/high-reward path for LANL’s codes was fully consistent with the goals of ATDM as described in Appendix B, in particular its emphasis on evolving ASC capabilities through novel computing programming models and computing technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LLNL Response to the DOE ASCR RFI, "Stewardship of Software for Scientific and High-Performance Computing"

For decades, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been engaged in significant research, development, and support for software to enable scientific computing and, particularly, the use of high performance computing (HPC) in the NNSA mission space. In particular, the move in the mid-1990’s to simulation as a leading component of stockpile stewardship through the ASCI and the successor ASC programs, as well as the need for reliable data acquisition and control software for the National Ignition Facility, have been important drivers in building expertise in production-quality software development at LLNL. LLNL has also been a leader in the DOE SciDAC FASTMath Institute and the DOE Exascale Computing Project (ECP), both of which have striven to make scientific computing software – in particular, the enabling technologies underpinning simulation capabilities – more widely adopted and sustainable. As such, we believe that our experience can inform the broader goal of software stewardship for scientific and high-performance computing. LLNL strongly supports the formation of a new DOE ASCR program element in software stewardship and sustainment. Historically, DOE ASCR has funded applied mathematics and computer science research that has led to the development of important new capabilities and algorithms that are expressed as artifacts in research software. Such frameworks, libraries, and tools have seldom been directly funded to address the important issues of code maintenance, documentation, robustness, and community building. Software engineering and support have typically been done on the side in support of the ASCR-driven research products. DOE funding priorities have been slow to recognize that good software engineering, the kind that ensures research investments have more adoption and longevity, requires significant resources. Based upon our experiences, we have prepared this response to highlight the concerns and issues we believe to be important as DOE ASCR considers its role in scientific software stewardship. We believe that role is important and will require a significant investment of new funding to legitimately support the technologies past and future DOE ASCR investments have and will produce to facilitate their uptake and adoption in the broader scientific computing community. Following a summary of our involvement in scientific software development, the remainder our response is organized around the nine topics specifically identified in the RFI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MFC 5.0: An exascale many-physics flow solver

Many problems of interest in engineering, medicine, and the fundamental sciences rely on high-fidelity flow simulation, making performant computational fluid dynamics solvers a mainstay of the open-source software community. Previous work MFC 3.0 was made a published, documented, and open-source solver via Bryngelson et al. Comp. Phys. Comm. (2021) with numerous physical features, numerical methods, and scalable infrastructure. MFC 5.0 is a significant update to MFC 3.0, featuring a broad set of well-established and novel physical models and numerical methods, as well as the introduction of GPU and APU (or superchip) acceleration. Here, we exhibit state-of-the-art performance and ideal scaling on the first two exascale supercomputers, OLCF Frontier and LLNL El Capitan. Combined with MFC’s single-accelerator performance, MFC achieves exascale computation in practice, and achieved the largest-to-date public CFD simulation at 200 trillion grid points as a 2025 ACM Gordon Bell Prize finalist. New physical features include the immersed boundary method, N-fluid phase change, Euler–Euler and Euler–Lagrange sub-grid bubble models, fluid-structure interaction, hypo- and hyper-elastic materials, chemically reacting flow, two-material surface tension, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and more. Numerical techniques now represent the current state-of-the-art, including general relaxation characteristic boundary conditions, WENO variants, Strang splitting for stiff sub-grid flow features, and low Mach number treatments. Weak scaling to tens of thousands of GPUs on OLCF Summit and Frontier and LLNL El Capitan achieves efficiencies within 5% of ideal to over 90% of their respective system sizes. Strong scaling results for a 16-times increase in device count show parallel efficiencies over 90% on OLCF Frontier. MFC’s software stack has undergone further improvements, including continuous integration, which ensures code resilience and correctness through over 300 regression tests; metaprogramming, which reduces code length while maintaining performance portability; and code generation for computing chemical reactions

Computational fluid dynamics↗

Early experiences evaluating the HPE/Cray ecosystem for AMD GPUs

Summary The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) has a long history of supporting and promoting GPU‐accelerated computing starting with the deployment of the Titan supercomputer in 2021 and continuing with the Summit supercomputer which has a theoretical peak performance of approximately 200 petaflops. Because the majority of Summit's computational power comes from its 27,972 GPUs, users must port their applications to one of the supported programming models in order to make efficient use of the system. To prepare the transition to Frontier, the OLCF's exascale supercomputer, users will need to adapt to an entirely new ecosystem which will include new hardware and software technologies. First, users will need to familiarize themselves with the AMD Radeon GPU architecture. Furthermore, users who have been previously relying on CUDA will need to transition to the Heterogeneous‐Computing Interface for Portability (HIP) or one of the other supported programming models (e.g., OpenMP, OpenACC). In this work, we describe our initial experiences and lessons learned in porting three applications or proxy apps currently running on Summit to the HPE/Cray ecosystem to leverage the compute power from AMD GPUs: minisweep, GenASiS, and Sparkler. Each one is representative of current production workloads utilized at the OLCF, different programming languages, and different programming models.

Melesse Vergara, Verónica G.↗

ExaSGD: 2021 Kernel Thrust Activities

The Kernel Thrust milestone ADSE22-214 covers the development of device-capable optimization algorithms and solvers technologies required by the ExaSGD project’s software stack in order to solve security-constrained alternating current optimal power flow (SC-ACOPF) problems on emerging exascale architectures. To this extent, in FY21 the main objective of the Kernel Thrust was (i) provide robust optimization solver(s) that run efficiently on hardware accelerator devices (i.e., NVIDIA and AMD GPUs) to perform intra-node computations and (ii) provide coarse-grain parallel optimization capabilities that exploit the decomposition opportunities present in the SC-ACOPF challenge problems to provide exascale-capable solvers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗