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At least 55 records · Page 3

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Statistical analysis of secondary particle distributions in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

The use is described of several statistical techniques to characterize structure in the angular distributions of secondary particles from nucleus-nucleus collisions in the energy range 24 to 61 GeV/nucleon. The objective of this work was to determine whether there are correlations between emitted particle intensity and angle that may be used to support the existence of the quark gluon plasma. The techniques include chi-square null hypothesis tests, the method of discrete Fourier transform analysis, and fluctuation analysis. We have also used the method of composite unit vectors to test for azimuthal asymmetry in a data set of 63 JACEE-3 events. Each method is presented in a manner that provides the reader with some practical detail regarding its application. Of those events with relatively high statistics, Fe approaches 0 at 55 GeV/nucleon was found to possess an azimuthal distribution with a highly non-random structure. No evidence of non-statistical fluctuations was found in the pseudo-rapidity distributions of the events studied. It is seen that the most effective application of these methods relies upon the availability of many events or single events that possess very high multiplicities.

Mcguire, Stephen C.↗

Energy spectra of ions from impulsive solar flares

A study of the energy spectra of ions from impulsive solar flares in the 0.1-100 MeV region is reported. Most of the events studied are dominated by He and these He spectra show a persistent steepening or break above about 10 MeV resulting in an increase in the power-law spectral indices from about 2 to about 3.5 or more. Spectra of H, He-3, O, and Fe have spectral indices that are consistent with a value of about 3.5 above about 2 MeV/amu. One event, dominated by protons, shows a clear maximum in the spectrum near 1 MeV. If the rollover in the spectrum below 1 MeV is interpreted as a consequence of matter traversal in the solar atmosphere, then the source of the acceleration would lie only about 800 km above the photosphere, well below the corona. Alternative interpretations are that trapping in the acceleration region directly causes a peak in the resulting ion spectrum or that low-energy particles encounter significant additional scattering during transport from the flare.

Reames, D. V.↗

On the search for evidence of fast mode compressions in the near-earth tail - ISEE observations

A search for earthward propagating fast mode compressions in the near-earth tail has been conducted. ISEE electric and magnetic field data were studied for substorm and quiet times when the spacecraft was close to the neutral sheet, near midnight, and at radial distances of 5.5 to 13 R(E) (earth radii). Due to ISEE orbit characteristics, the set of events covered 12.5 hours, during which time the satellite remained between 8.5 and 13 R(E). Contrary to earlier ideas, no evidence for fast mode compression waves was found during the substorm events studied here, since plasma data and spacecraft potential data showed no density increases at the times of rapid magnetic field increases. For the one compression event for which a temporal offset between the ISEE 1 and ISEE 2 magnetic field structures could be clearly determined, the propagation velocity was about 140 km/s, well below the fast mode speed of about 400 km/s for the measured composition. During substorm events, the largest convection flows were earthward with magnitudes of 100-350 km/sec.

Moortgat, K. T.↗

Characteristics of wave-particle interactions during sudden commencements. II - Spacecraft observations

Wave data from the DE 1 spacecraft for 50 sudden commencements were analyzed for amplitude and spectral modifications and correlated with data from ground-based observatories. Changes in wave activity were identified in 14 of the events studied. The changes, which were commonly observed at frequencies below the local electron gyrofrequency, exhibited a complex structure both in frequency and in time and varied considerably among events. The typical event lasted 1-10 min with a maximum narrowband amplitude increase or decrease of 10-30 dB. The onset time of the wave growth was correlated with the arrival of the magnetic disturbance at the spacecraft. Changes were most commonly observed at L shells in the range of L values between 3 and 6. Growth was observed on the nightside as well as the dayside, and no clear local time dependence was found. In several cases, growth at frequencies above the local gyrofrequency was noted and identified as auroral kilometric radiation.

Gail, W. B.↗

Weather radar utility in hazard detection and response

Publicly accessible weather radar data have significant capabilities for meteorological measurements and predictions and, further, have the potential to measure nonmeteorological events that include smoke, ash, and debris plumes as well as explosions. The ability to identify and track nonmeteorological events can be of assistance in emergency response, hazard mitigation, and related activities in locations where radar coverage both exists and is recorded and accessible to the user. Here, in this study, events from multiple locations in the United States that are reported in news outlets are assessed using a manual inspection process of Level 2 weather radar data to identify anthropogenic and nonbiological returns. Explosive events are also identified, and a large high-altitude debris cloud from the intentional destruction of the SpaceX Starship is tracked across a wide area. Finally, future efforts using a machine learning model are discussed as a means of automating the process and potentially enabling near-real-time nonmeteorological event identification in the same areas where the data are accessible. Using weather radar data can be a valuable new tool for Department of Defense systems to aid in military awareness, and for interagency emergency response and forensic mission experts to consider national weather service data in their mission profiles. Radar data can be effective in detecting several common types of emergencies and inform and aid response personnel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differences in the Evolution of Pyrocumulonimbus and Volcanic Stratospheric Plumes as Observed by CATS and CALIOP Space-Based Lidars

Recent fire seasons have featured volcanic-sized injections of smoke aerosols into the stratosphere where they persist for many months. Unfortunately, the aging and transport of these aerosols are not well understood. Using space-based lidar, the vertical and spatial propagation of these aerosols can be tracked and inferences can be made as to their size and shape. In this study, space-based CATS and CALIOP lidar were used to track the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol plumes resulting from the 2019–2020 Australian bushfire and 2017 Pacific Northwest pyrocumulonimbus events and were compared to two volcanic events: Calbuco (2015) and Puyehue (2011). The pyrocumulonimbus and volcanic aerosol plumes evolved distinctly, with pyrocumulonimbus plumes rising upwards of 10 km after injection to altitudes of 30 km or more, compared to small to modest altitude increases in the volcanic plumes. We also show that layer-integrated depolarization ratios in these large pyrocumulonimbus plumes have a strong altitude dependence with more irregularly shaped particles in the higher altitude plumes, unlike the volcanic events studied.

Kenneth Christian↗

Energy spectra of ions from impulsive solar flares

A study of the energy spectra of ions from impulsive solar flares in the 0.1 to 100 MeV region is reported with data from the combined observations of experiments on the ISEE 3 and IMP 8 spacecraft. Most of the events studied are dominated by He, and these He spectra show a persistent steepening or break above about 10 MeV resulting in an increase in the power-law spectral indices from about 2 to about 3.5 or more. One event, dominated by protons, shows a clear maximum in the spectrum near 1 MeV. If the rollover in the spectrum below 1 MeV is interpreted as a consequence of matter traversal in the solar atmosphere, then the source of the acceleration would lie only about 800 km above the photosphere, well below the corona. An alternative interpretation is that trapping in the acceleration region directly causes a peak in the spectrum.

Reames, D. V.↗

A numerical investigation of the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The diagnostic framework being utilized by researchers at NASA-Goddard in a numerical analysis of the draught which occurred in the U.S. in 1980 described, along with preliminary results. Attention is focused on the wave structure at 500 mb and comparisons of this structure with NMC data from 1963-77 to define conditions during the initiation, maintenance and decay of a draught. Attempts are also being made to develop a simple index for the diagnosis of heat patterns using as input data from the 500 mb analysis. Early studies involving the examination of the effects of varying boundary conditions have revealed a positive contribution from the soil moisture fields and a negative contribution from the North Pacific sea surface temperature during the event. Studies are continuing to characterize phenomena during draught initiation and decay.

Wolfson, N.↗

Do Households Adapt? Repeated Hurricane Exposure and the Purchasing of Bottled Water

Understanding how households adapt to hurricanes is increasingly important as these events become more frequent and severe. This paper examines how past hurricane exposure influences current household preparedness, focusing specifically on the stockpiling of bottled water. Leveraging scanner data on bottled water purchases for households in the Southeastern United States, we employ a difference-in-differences event study framework to analyze how repeated hurricane experiences affect consumer behavior. Our results indicate that households exposed to hurricane warnings do not increase their preparedness in the subsequent hurricane season, and those experiencing a landfall event underprepare. These results suggest limited learning from past events.

D12↗

Local and Global Studies of Ion Outflow From the High Latitude Ionosphere

Ion outflow from the ionosphere plays a fundamental but poorly defined role in magnetospheric processes. The purpose of the research is to better understand the mass coupling between the Earth's ionosphere and Magnetosphere. The work performed under this grant falls in three areas: (1) event studies using archived data from the DE-1/2 satellites; (2) investigations using Data from the ISTP satellites; and (3) work supporting a Space Physics Educational Outreach (SPEO) grant supplement.

Petersen, W. K.↗

Forerunners - Outer rims of solar coronal transients

The large loop or blob-like transient events viewed in the white-light corona are rimmed by broad regions where the density is slightly enhanced above the pretransient corona. Every one of the Skylab events studied for which sufficiently good Skylab coronagraph coverage is available shows this effect. The upper boundaries of these 'forerunners' blend gradually into the background corona 1-2 solar radii above the transient's leading edges. In any single event, the coronal mass enhancement represented by the forerunner comprises up to 25% of the total excess mass present in the coronagraph's field of view and includes a much larger volume of the corona than previously attributed to the underlying transient. A forerunner without an accompanying transient has not yet been seen. Clearly, forerunners must be reckoned with in any proposed models of discrete outward coronal mass motions, because they indicate the presence of disturbed corona far ahead of the denser portions of the event.

Jackson, B. V.↗

SDO Asks: What's The Sun Doing Now?

Solar observations have tended to emphasize events like flares and CMEs, and what leads to these events. The past decade has seen an increasing emphasis on understanding the entire Sun, from the nuclear reactions at the core to the development and loss of magnetic loops in the corona. The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will return synoptic data, taken at a regular cadence and covering the entire Sun. This means you can still study events, but can also move forward to producing a quantitative model of what the Sun is doing today. The science investigations of SDO will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere and geospace as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. How SDO data will transform the study of the Sun and the affect on stellar astrophysics will be discussed.

Pesnell, W. D.↗

Observed correlations between auroral and vlf emissions.

This paper presents a series of simultaneous observations of very-low-frequency radio noise by the Injun 5 satellite and of visual aurora along the same geomagnetic-field line by the Fort Churchill Auroral Observatory. Seven observations from the period of August 29, 1968, to March 4, 1969, are discussed. In 5 of the 7 events studied vlf hiss is observed in association with auroral-light emissions. These observations typically show the occurrence of vlf hiss in the general region of the auroral arc, with significant changes in the vlf spectrum sometimes observed in the immediate vicinity of the auroral arc. One event for which the associated charged-particle fluxes have been analyzed is investigated in detail. The vlf radio noise intensity for this event is among the largest observed with Injun 5 and is much greater than can presently be explained by an incoherent Cerenkov radiation mechanism.

Mosier, S. R.↗

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗

Enhancement of solar heavy nuclei at high energies in the 4 July 1974 event

Relative abundances of energetic nuclei in the 4 July 1974 solar event are presented. The results show a marked enhancement of abundances that systematically increase with nuclear charge numbers in the range of the observation, 6 less than or equal to Z less than or equal to 26 for energies above 15 MeV/nucleon. While such enhancements are commonly seen below 10 MeV/nucleon, most observations at higher energies are found to be consistent with solar system abundances. The energy spectrum of oxygen is observed to be significantly steeper than most other solar events studied in this energy region. It is proposed that these observations are characteristic of particle populations at energies approximately 1 MeV/nucleon, and that the anomalous features observed here may be the result of the high energy extension of such a population that is commonly masked by other processes or populations that might occur in larger solar events.

Bertsch, D. L.↗

SENSEI: Characterization of Single-Electron Events Using a Skipper Charge-Coupled Device

We use a science-grade skipper charge-coupled device (skipper CCD) operating in a low-radiation background environment to develop a semi-empirical model that characterizes the origin of single-electron events in CCDs. We identify, separate, and quantify three independent contributions to the single-electron events, which were previously bundled together and classified as "dark counts": dark current, amplifier light, and spurious charge. We measure a dark current, which depends on exposure, of (5.89±0.77)×10 -4 e - /pix/day, and an unprecedentedly low spurious charge contribution of (1.52±0.07)×10 -4 e - /pix, which is exposure independent. In addition, we provide a technique to study events produced by light emitted from the amplifier, which allows the detector's operation to be optimized to minimize this effect to a level below the dark-current contribution. Our accurate characterization of the single-electron events allows one to greatly extend the sensitivity of experiments searching for dark matter or coherent neutrino scattering. Moreover, an accurate understanding of the origin of single-electron events is critical to further progress in ongoing research and development efforts of skipper and conventional CCDs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Enhancement of solar heavy nuclei at high energies in the 4 July 1974 event

Relative abundances of energetic nuclei in the July 4, 1974, solar event are presented. The results show a marked enhancement of abundances that systematically increase with nuclear charge numbers in the range of the observation (Z between 6 and 26) for energies above 15 MeV/nucl. While such enhancements are commonly seen below 10 MeV/nucl, most observations at higher energies are found to be consistent with solar-system abundances. The energy spectrum of oxygen is observed to be significantly steeper than most other solar events studied in this energy region. It is proposed that these observations are characteristic of particle populations at energies of the order of 1 MeV/nucl and that the anomalous features observed may be the result of the high-energy extension of such a population that is commonly masked by other processes or populations that might occur in larger solar events.

Bertsch, D. L.↗